Nicola Bulley, what does everybody think?

[Abby Normal]

It dosnt appear to be a large fast moving river, so if she went in and drowned im sure the extensive dive/search would have found her or her dog would have at least jumped in and been wet.

if she simply walked away to voluntarily vanish would she leave her phone,car and dog?? I think not.

Im leaning toward foul play. I could possibly see a scenario where the perp parked nearby, knocked her out/dragged her to his car and drives away. The dog returns to the spot where she last was and where her scent (phone and bench) was strongest. her body is not nearby in the park somewhere as thats where they would have found the dog (and her body).

Abduction id say at this point. and i would interogate extensively those last two people in the park who saw her, especially the one who knew her.

reposting this as it looks more and more like my original speculation on abduction is probably correct.and she was probably abducted while she was on the call near the bench.

[Herlock Sholmes]

If she was taken, was it the case that the killer had been watching her? She walked her dog there every day and the fact that no one was caught on cctv might indicate that the killer was aware of the camera blind spot, so maybe an indication of planning? And if she was taken then her phone being left shows that a bit of thought might have gone into this. I don’t know if they’ve found the tatty red van that was seen around? Perhaps she knew her killer to some extent?

[JeffHamm]

In terms of searching a river in winter, conditions have been perfect. The river was low the day she went missing and pretty much all of England has had little more than 1 mm of rain in Feb. Clear water, small river, three weeks of searching. Surely they would have found her by now? Also there is a weir not far downstream of the bench. In a low gradient river like this, flows will be fairly slack/partially impounded for a fair distance upstream because of the artificially raised water level. Considering they dived the reach between the bench and the weir on day one, and given the gentle flows and good conditions, surely they would have found her? I did see a couple of images of the sonar scans of the river bed and the detail is amazing. The scans would also have found her in that area they searched and I can see why the expert was adamant she wasn't in that section of river. Downstream of the weir the river is tidal, but it's a fair distance to the sea and i can't see the tidal range being much at that location and making it possible a body could have moved too far. Rivers are unpredictable though and it could still be possible, but i'm starting to doubt she went into the river.

Yah, based on the photos I've seen if the river, that's my impression too. But, having fished a fair few streams in my time, I also know that the current can be far stinger than the surface reveals, and if that is the case she could have moved much more than we think But, the divers would know that, and if they found the current to be stronger they would advise searching much further down, etc. By the sounds of it, though, they are also coming to the conclusion she is not in the river.

- Jeff

[String]

Given that the river and area have been searched and there’s no evidence of a struggle the next most likely scenario is that she left under own steam. Either that or it’s Aliens or Chinese weather balloons.

[Aethelwulf]

In terms of searching a river in winter, conditions have been perfect. The river was low the day she went missing and pretty much all of England has had little more than 1 mm of rain in Feb. Clear water, small river, three weeks of searching. Surely they would have found her by now? Also there is a weir not far downstream of the bench. In a low gradient river like this, flows will be fairly slack/partially impounded for a fair distance upstream because of the artificially raised water level. Considering they dived the reach between the bench and the weir on day one, and given the gentle flows and good conditions, surely they would have found her? I did see a couple of images of the sonar scans of the river bed and the detail is amazing. The scans would also have found her in that area they searched and I can see why the expert was adamant she wasn't in that section of river. Downstream of the weir the river is tidal, but it's a fair distance to the sea and i can't see the tidal range being much at that location and making it possible a body could have moved too far. Rivers are unpredictable though and it could still be possible, but i'm starting to doubt she went into the river.

[JeffHamm]

Hmm, read an article where it says the path she normally followed along the river has CCTV coverage but she isn't on it. There is another one that is/was CCTV blind that she could have used though, so provided the sightings are valid (and we have no reason to suggest they are not - just using cautious phrasing here), it appears she may have done something out of the ordinary. Might mean nothing, of course, but it also might be a pointer to her being aware she would go missing. I would want to know if there was anything that might have influenced this change in her routine that reduces that idea (as in, was the usual path muddy or blocked somehow, etc). Also, how strong was her routine in the first place Was it uncommon for her to use different paths, or did she generally mix it up even if one was the most frequently chosen? If she always took the same path when dog walking, then this change of route needs to be explained. It might, as I say, mean nothing, but it is clutter - until it is cleared or it is not.

- Jeff
P.S. Sadly I didn't note the article, and this just occured to me now.

[JeffHamm]

That seems to be an erroneous report, a woman did find the dog running loose but she tied it up somewhere close to the bench, and was seen doing this by another witness.

If Nicola had been taken on land the dog would have followed, in my view, and from what we have seen a vehicle cannot get to that bench so she had to have walked or been dragged across a field, so the dog is going to be there right with her until she is bundled into a vehicle, and that would be where the dog would likely stay - but that is not the case here. A genuine three-pipe problem....
For the dog to be found in the area of the bench suggests that is where Nicola vanished, and the dog couldn't follow, not hard to guess why.

Hmmm, I suppose the dog could have been tied up to the bench when she left the area (however that may have transpired), after which the dog got itself loose, at which point it was found.

Some of the odd things are that she logged into a work call, with her camera off and the sound on mute (apparently normal for her), but didn't log out at the end of it. That means she could have left at any point after the start of that call (modified by the witness sightings of course). I think most people know that phones can be tracked, if on, so if she left of her own accord, then leaving the phone on the bench would make sense but it also makes sense if she was abducted (it makes determining the time of her departure/abduction more difficult). If she's on a call, then her attention to her surroundings will be reduced, potentially making her an attractive target, but if she's planning on disappearing, then making it seem like she's engaged in a work related call helps make tracking her more difficult.

Given she didn't log off the call, if she fell into the river (the current police working hypothesis), then it means that for some reason she put her phone down on the bench as she approached the river. From the sounds of it, there's no reason to suspect suicide (though at this point nothing should be dismissed entirely), but barring that line of thinking, given her dog wasn't wet, I can't think of why she would put her phone down during a work call to go over to the river? Also, from the photos, the river isn't one that looks all that conducive to drowning by someone who can swim, even a little (and apparently she could). It's not fast moving at all, so I can't see a body drifting all that far, particularly if the bottom has debris that would catch clothing and hold it in place.

Personally, given the oddity of the situation, the police probably need to start ruling out the various witnesses, particularly the person who found the dog loose and found her phone. Not that there is any strong reason to suspect them, but the first stage is to determine who was in the area but not involved. It is only when it becomes difficult to rule someone out that they start becoming of interest, but the ruling out phase is really just about "de-cluttering" the information space to avoid connecting otherwise random dots.

Also, just saw a report that a "stained glove" was found in the area and handed into the police. Whether or not it has any relation to her disappearance is unknown, and no indication was given as to the nature of the stains. Again, it's either clutter, or it's not, but until that is determined it is unwise to make anything of it either way.

Looking at the map found here, her last sighting is in the upper field (area 5; approximately 9:10), and it appears to be after she had logged into the work call. Her phone is back at the bench (area 3) roughly 10 minutes after that sighting (9:20; not sure how they know that, but presumably it's location was tracked somehow), and it is then found (with her dog) at roughly 9:33 (the work call ended at 9:30).

Considering foul play, if she was abducted, then the upper field (area 5), would be a good alternative place to search for evidence. If she was abducted from there, then I think it would require at least 2 people to be involved, as one would have to take the phone and dog and place them somewhere away from the abduction site while the other removes her from the area (and do this while somehow remaining unseen). I suppose, if she was rendered immobile, then one person could do it, though I would think they would need to hide her from sight in the field first, shift the phone and dog, and return to remove her (again, remaining unseen) - basically this idea all starts to get very complicated if there's only one abductor). Further to this, of course, is that anywhere between the bench and the upper field is a potential "abduction site."

Of course, part of the clutter is the person who knows her and reports seeing her in the upper field (area 5). Here's what I mean by "clutter" and how it leads to chaos if it is not cleared out before one starts to come up with hypotheses.
A) If she's voluntarily vanished, I suppose that person could be helping her (this would entirely depend upon how well they knew each other of course; it would take someone very close to her to assist in such a thing).

B) Alternatively, they could be involved in her abduction somehow.
If either of those is the case then the sighting in area 5 could be mis-information.

C) It's also possible it's a genuine non-involved witness reporting what they saw, making the upper field of interest to the investigation and providing an alternate location for searching.

Just to make it clear, none of these ideas have any basis other than they can be thought of and this is due to the clutter (that we have; the police have probably already sorted this question I would hope). Of course, it would be risky to involve ones' self in the investigation if they are in anyway connected to it (A or B), so the odds are in favour of a genuine witness (C), so it should be easy enough to rule that person out of consideration (and shutting down some of these types of wild speculations that I'm engaging in).

I will be surprised if she's in the river, though. The images I'm seeing of it just don't look like a river where one is at risk of drowning, nor can I think of why she would put her phone down on the bench during a work call to go over to the river in the first place. However, rivers can be tricky, and the surface can mask risks that exist underneath, but the reports are that it's pretty slow moving so if she's in there, she shouldn't be hard to find.

Anyway, I'm just spinning ideas off the top of my head here, and I'm not up on all the details. It's a baffling case for sure though, and I hope, in the end, she's alright and is found ok. It would suggest she's got some issues in her life that she needs to address, but that would be far preferable to the darker alternatives.

- Jeff

[Wickerman]

Interesting. I hadn't heard about this case, but after reading the BBC story, I noticed it said the dog's harness and leash were found on the ground by the bench.

This suggests to me that either Ms. Bulley or an unknown person released the dog and set it loose. If it was found in the village, that supports this idea, but doesn't explain why or who did it. It might support the idea that she deliberately disappeared, or could support her being abducted.

That seems to be an erroneous report, a woman did find the dog running loose but she tied it up somewhere close to the bench, and was seen doing this by another witness.

If Nicola had been taken on land the dog would have followed, in my view, and from what we have seen a vehicle cannot get to that bench so she had to have walked or been dragged across a field, so the dog is going to be there right with her until she is bundled into a vehicle, and that would be where the dog would likely stay - but that is not the case here. A genuine three-pipe problem....
For the dog to be found in the area of the bench suggests that is where Nicola vanished, and the dog couldn't follow, not hard to guess why.

[Wickerman]

Sadly I think going into the water seems the likely answer.
I once read that the number of women in the middle ages who simply washed clothes in rivers often, got into trouble with cold and with soaked heavy clothing often drowned....it really happens that quickly and I dont think people really understand how it can happen......

Regards.

A waterlogged body should not go over a weir, it floats too low in the water. Doesn't anyone remember being told to take off your wellies if you get in trouble in water, they'll only drag you down.

[caz]

The family and friends are getting very fed up with all the speculation on social media, but the police would be unlikely to release any information to the general public that could interfere with their own enquiries and ongoing investigation into Nicola's disappearance, so we would not necessarily be told if they are working on some other theory besides the one where she accidentally slipped down the bank into the river, presumably while her dog was looking the other way. Clearly, all relevant phone and bank records will have been checked, but again we should not expect to know the outcome unless or until the police choose to say more.

It was shallow at the river's edge, and Nicola is said to be an "incredibly strong swimmer", but if she lost her balance as she went in, she could have hit her head on the rocks immediately beneath and been knocked unconscious, drifting into the deeper water away from the bank. There seems to be no evidence that she had any intention to 'disappear without trace', or could have done it so effectively with or without help, so sadly it does look like something unexpected happened to her, which may or may not have involved another person.

Love,

Caz
X

[Pcdunn]

Interesting. I hadn't heard about this case, but after reading the BBC story, I noticed it said the dog's harness and leash were found on the ground by the bench.

This suggests to me that either Ms. Bulley or an unknown person released the dog and set it loose. If it was found in the village, that supports this idea, but doesn't explain why or who did it. It might support the idea that she deliberately disappeared, or could support her being abducted.

I watched a true-crime tv-movie recently about a married woman who hoaxed her own abduction several years ago, here in the States. She conned an internet boyfriend to take her from her jogging trail and keep her at his place. He thought she was running away with him, but after a week she reappeared at the family home with a vauge story of being taken captive by two Hispanic women. Eventually even her husband was doubtful of her account, and upon learning of the online boyfriend, he stopped supporting her and filed for divorce. She was arrested and tried for false reporting of a crime, put away in prison.

It isn't difficult to imagine what the Bulley family is overhearing as far as nasty gossip.

I hope this case has a happier ending.

[spyglass]

Sadly I think going into the water seems the likely answer.
I once read that the number of women in the middle ages who simply washed clothes in rivers often, got into trouble with cold and with soaked heavy clothing often drowned....it really happens that quickly and I dont think people really understand how it can happen.

I really hope this wasnt the case, but I dont understand the huge criticism of the Police in all this.

Regards.

[Herlock Sholmes]

Hi Herlock

I wondered if the phone was left behind deliberately, to avoid the possibility of being tracked through the phone.

Hi Eten,

Good point. Why didn’t I think of that?

[ColdCaseJury]

This is the kind of case that I write about in my Cold Case Jury books - except this is not an historical crime but a real-life tragedy unfolding in real-time. The case is baffling because there is no evidence she fell in the river and no evidence she was abducted. My initial thoughts were that she had fallen in the river and swept out to sea. However, expert opinion appears to weigh against this possibility. If she was abducted, I'm pretty sure there was no struggle (zero evidence). She might have been told to leave her mobile phone and this would point to an armed assailant or someone with a weapon. A third possibility is that she wanted to disappear (i.e. start a new life) but I think is extremely unlikely given she had two children and she was walking the dog that - it must be stressed - did not follow her. In this scenario, I would have thought the dog would have been leashed to the bench.

After two weeks now, I fear we're not looking at a good outcome. But I'm often wrong. I hope I am.

[Wickerman]

The dog was found lurking between the bench/phone and the river.
That suggests to me she probably went in the river, a dog would instinctively lurk at the point they last see you.
If someone took her away the dog would try to follow and would be unlikely to turn back and return to that space.

Although why she hasn’t been found yet is baffling, I just hope I’m wrong and she is found ok and well.

One news report had the dog wandering loose in the village just north of the river when it was seen by someone. Though whether that is accurate or not is hard to say at this point.