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  • #1

    Profiling

    Hello all,

    I wrote this thread because I want to see your views on offinder profiling. If you want to agrue against it, don't give me the stupid reason of "Its unreliable" because when have any of you(at least more than most of you)conducted a criminal investigation and even tryed it?

    People will say the stupidist things to try and discard profiling.

    They say it is inexact.
    They say prolfiles are almost always wrong.
    They say what they say because they heard someone discout offinder profiling.

    They, however forget that the FBI uses offinder profiling itself. It is one of the worlds largest crime detection agencys and they have a department(BSU) dedicated to profiling.

    Alot of indaviduals conceptions of offinder profiling is warped and misgueded. Many posters who discount it do so because they see others doing so. It is like a train, and it keeps growing as more and more indavidual perseptions of offinder profiliing gets warped.

    Give me your thoughts.

    p.s I didn't know which thread topic to put this under. Please to reply with any bull crap saying you know profiling is wrong if you don't have any proof except what others say.
    26
    Profiling works
    7.69%
    2
    Profiling doesn't work(why?)
    15.38%
    4
    It is a good tool in a investigation and can help narrow a suspect list
    69.23%
    18
    It is a valuable tool in a criminal investigation and can help detect a criminal
    7.69%
    2
    Last edited by corey123; 01-24-2010, 05:48 AM.
    Washington Irving:

    "To a homeless man, who has no spot on this wide world which he can truly call his own, there is a momentary feeling of something like independence and territorial consequence, when, after a weary day's travel, he kicks off his boots, thrusts his feet into slippers, and stretches himself before an inn fire. Let the world without go as it may; let kingdoms rise and fall, so long as he has the wherewithal to pay his bills, he is, for the time being, the very monarch of all he surveys. The arm chair in his throne; the poker his sceptre, and the little parlour of some twelve feet square, his undisputed empire. "

    Stratford-on-Avon
    Tags: None
  • #2
    My opinion,

    I am pro profiling. I believe that in a criminal investigation it is necissary to produce a estimate of what, or rather who to look for.

    A profile is a conception based on observed behaviors in criminal offinders left as clues know as signiture patterns.

    Their are many profilers, many who perform the wrong kind of profiling.

    People tend to think "Hey, if Colin Wilson profiled the ripper and thought it was Maybrick, then all profilers are wrong." That statment is incorrect.

    Profiling is a learnt based tool used by those who have the minds to use it. In those words I mean the ones who are not as stupid to discount it right off the bat.

    Expert profilers like David Canter and the FBI agents at quantico know the true way to profile.

    I have a book called "Criminal shadows" written by Dr.David Canter, professor of psychology at Liverpoll University on his Profiling technich. He knows his stuff.

    He doesn't just say that "If the target area is the vagina, the killer is sexually motivated" crap, he says that a preliminary profile can be based on behavioral clues left in the crime scene that he calls "The inner Narratives of evil" of a killer. He gives a killer a profile and a set of possible motives to go along with it. He says that it may be a motive not thought to be sorted with the type of killer, but he notes the most likely motives.

    He talks about the "Cirlce hypothesis" which I have found to be true.
    He also talks about his success in catching John Duffy A.K.A the "Railway rapists" and other cases he helped close. He puts profiling on the defence and puts foward the evidence to prove it as a valuable tool.

    Yours truly
    Last edited by corey123; 01-24-2010, 06:02 AM.
    Washington Irving:

    "To a homeless man, who has no spot on this wide world which he can truly call his own, there is a momentary feeling of something like independence and territorial consequence, when, after a weary day's travel, he kicks off his boots, thrusts his feet into slippers, and stretches himself before an inn fire. Let the world without go as it may; let kingdoms rise and fall, so long as he has the wherewithal to pay his bills, he is, for the time being, the very monarch of all he surveys. The arm chair in his throne; the poker his sceptre, and the little parlour of some twelve feet square, his undisputed empire. "

    Stratford-on-Avon

    Comment

    • #3
      Hi Corey,

      I voted "good tool" - but perhaps not for our case, since "facts" are still debated, and since it was another century...

      Have you read Ressler ?
      here are some sensible sentences :

      After the arrest of Chase:

      "Everyone was grateful to the FBI and very appreciative of the profile and some people later said that the profile caught the killer. That, of course, was not true. It is never true. (...) My profile was an investigative tool, one that, in this instance markedlynarrowed the search for a dangerous killer. Did my work help catch Chase ? You bet, and I'm proud of it. Did I catch him myself ? No."

      I would agree with Ressler...to some extent, regarding Chase... Because as good as was Russler's profile, Chase was caught because a woman who knew him saw blood on his T-shirt...

      Amitiés,
      David

      Comment

      • #4
        David,

        Thanks for your response. I believe a profile is acceptable for any criminal case. How do you think we accept or dispose of suspects? We see if they fit a profile, subconsiously, but we do.

        Canter helped catch John Duffy with a profile. He was a original suspect in the railway rapists case and he was overlooked for various reasons.

        David Canters profile for the "Railway rapist" was this:

        Residence:
        Has lived in area circumscribed by the first 3 cases since 1983.
        Possibally arrested some time after 14 october 1983.
        Probally lived in that area at the time of arrest.
        Probally lives with wife/girl friend, quite possibly without children.

        Age ect:
        Mid to late 20's.
        Light hair.
        About 5'9".
        Right handed.
        "A" secretor.

        Occupation:
        Probally semi-skilled or skilled job, involving weekend work or casual labor from about june 1984 onwards.
        Job does not bring him into a lot of contact with public, in all probability.

        Character:
        Keeps to himseld but has one or two very close men friends.
        Probally very little contact with women,especially in work situation.
        Has knowledge of the railway system along which attacks happen.

        Sexual activity:
        The variety and mixture of his sexual actions suggest considerable sexual experience.

        Criminal record:
        Was probally under arrest at some time between oct 1982 and jan 1984.
        His arrest may not have been a sex-related crime at all but an aggressive attack, possibally under the influence of alcohol(or drugs?)

        Heres what was discovered upon finding John Duffy.

        the only aspect of the profile Canter provided that was over estimated was his height.
        Duffy was 29 when he was apprihended.
        He was arrested on december 1985 on charges on raping his wife.
        So he was married.
        And he also got arrested, even though out of the time range given, it is not too far from assumed.
        He was a carpenter.
        You also have to realize that Duffy was suspect No.1501. He was buried deep into the suspect list and would have been overlooked if not for that profile.

        Yours truly
        Washington Irving:

        "To a homeless man, who has no spot on this wide world which he can truly call his own, there is a momentary feeling of something like independence and territorial consequence, when, after a weary day's travel, he kicks off his boots, thrusts his feet into slippers, and stretches himself before an inn fire. Let the world without go as it may; let kingdoms rise and fall, so long as he has the wherewithal to pay his bills, he is, for the time being, the very monarch of all he surveys. The arm chair in his throne; the poker his sceptre, and the little parlour of some twelve feet square, his undisputed empire. "

        Stratford-on-Avon

        Comment

        • #5
          Hi Corey,

          I have nothing against profiling...
          All tools are welcome to catch a serial killer...
          But it also happens that profilers turn out to be completely wrong.

          Amitiés,
          David

          Comment

          • #6
            David,

            That profile above was completely right. It depends on who is the profiler.
            Washington Irving:

            "To a homeless man, who has no spot on this wide world which he can truly call his own, there is a momentary feeling of something like independence and territorial consequence, when, after a weary day's travel, he kicks off his boots, thrusts his feet into slippers, and stretches himself before an inn fire. Let the world without go as it may; let kingdoms rise and fall, so long as he has the wherewithal to pay his bills, he is, for the time being, the very monarch of all he surveys. The arm chair in his throne; the poker his sceptre, and the little parlour of some twelve feet square, his undisputed empire. "

            Stratford-on-Avon

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by corey123 View Post
              David,

              That profile above was completely right. It depends on who is the profiler.
              Hi Corey,

              in the JtR case, I'm afraid it rather depends on who the killer was...

              Amitiés,
              David

              Comment

              • #8
                While I agree profiling is a valuable tool in Criminal investigations today, I'm hesitant to say it has any relevance concerning the Ripper case. I think the case is too "old" to construct a profile that can narrow down the list of suspects we have.
                I won't make any deals. I've resigned. I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed,de-briefed, or numbered!

                Comment

                • #9
                  Hello JTR,

                  I am only asking if you think it is a good tool for any investigation, not only this case. You have to remember though, all a profiler needs to make a profile is the victim reports and dates and loactions on murders. Which we have in this case.

                  Yours truly
                  Washington Irving:

                  "To a homeless man, who has no spot on this wide world which he can truly call his own, there is a momentary feeling of something like independence and territorial consequence, when, after a weary day's travel, he kicks off his boots, thrusts his feet into slippers, and stretches himself before an inn fire. Let the world without go as it may; let kingdoms rise and fall, so long as he has the wherewithal to pay his bills, he is, for the time being, the very monarch of all he surveys. The arm chair in his throne; the poker his sceptre, and the little parlour of some twelve feet square, his undisputed empire. "

                  Stratford-on-Avon

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    The profile of BTK correctly predicted he would be a wanna-be cop. The profile for Rochester, New York serial killer Arthur Shawcross was more or less correct except for age- he was significantly older than predicted. But then it turned out he had spent some time in prison so that his mental development had a sort of gap in it, and with the prison time subtracted from his age the profile was spot on. In other words, in his mind if not his body he was the age predicted. Sometimes profiles miss the mark, but I think when done by people who really know what they're doing they can be scary accurate.

                    By the way, not sure if Pub Talk is the right place for this thread.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Kensie,

                      I agree with everything you just said. I didn't know which spot to put it under since it has not much relavence to Jack the ripper. Like I said, if stephen or ally want to move it, I welcome them to.
                      Washington Irving:

                      "To a homeless man, who has no spot on this wide world which he can truly call his own, there is a momentary feeling of something like independence and territorial consequence, when, after a weary day's travel, he kicks off his boots, thrusts his feet into slippers, and stretches himself before an inn fire. Let the world without go as it may; let kingdoms rise and fall, so long as he has the wherewithal to pay his bills, he is, for the time being, the very monarch of all he surveys. The arm chair in his throne; the poker his sceptre, and the little parlour of some twelve feet square, his undisputed empire. "

                      Stratford-on-Avon

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Circle Hypothesis

                        Heres using Jack the Rippers murder map to show how the "Circle hypothesis" works.

                        Here is a map showing three possible murder sprees, one for whatever you believe.

                        First murder is Mary Nichols in Bucks row which is north east. The second murder he moves across town due north west. He does this subconciously. He does this because the investigation, he feels, is too heated in location one. Murder number three is Moving back easy but south. Murder four is south again but transitioning back west and then north west from there.

                        First muder is Mary Nichols, killed due north east, the killer then moves west, still north and kills "Dark Annie" then south and murders Eddowes.

                        The killer starts off by killing Annie Chapman due north west, he then moves south and futher west and kills eddowes, then moves up north again to kill Kelly.

                        This is a distinctive pattern found in almost any serial case. As the murder progress(further than Jack the Rippers crimes are known to have) they would move farther out of this "Comfort zone"

                        This killer killed far enough away from his home or "Base" to feel comfortable, but not too far that its unfamiliararity would pose a risk to his escape or hiding method. As a killer gains additional knowledge of his hunting ground(Progress is made, as shown as the murders progress as far as the city district, I would think, if Jack the Ripper kept killing the murder sites would space out farther and farther, to the limits of his mobility)his murdering campus is broadened.

                        Jack the Ripper killed few people in a short time, so it is hard to tell what he could further do, but it is clear, that he was pushing farther and father away.

                        Yours truly
                        Attached Files
                        Washington Irving:

                        "To a homeless man, who has no spot on this wide world which he can truly call his own, there is a momentary feeling of something like independence and territorial consequence, when, after a weary day's travel, he kicks off his boots, thrusts his feet into slippers, and stretches himself before an inn fire. Let the world without go as it may; let kingdoms rise and fall, so long as he has the wherewithal to pay his bills, he is, for the time being, the very monarch of all he surveys. The arm chair in his throne; the poker his sceptre, and the little parlour of some twelve feet square, his undisputed empire. "

                        Stratford-on-Avon

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Plan

                          Here are some lay outs made by Septic blue(thanks for them) that he made showing the immediat vicinity and such.

                          He had just started to kill in the Blue region described as being the "Surrounding vecinity". He then would have moved on to the area shaded in Purple.

                          Most of the murders are either in or boardering the Immediate vicinity.

                          Yours truly
                          Attached Files
                          Washington Irving:

                          "To a homeless man, who has no spot on this wide world which he can truly call his own, there is a momentary feeling of something like independence and territorial consequence, when, after a weary day's travel, he kicks off his boots, thrusts his feet into slippers, and stretches himself before an inn fire. Let the world without go as it may; let kingdoms rise and fall, so long as he has the wherewithal to pay his bills, he is, for the time being, the very monarch of all he surveys. The arm chair in his throne; the poker his sceptre, and the little parlour of some twelve feet square, his undisputed empire. "

                          Stratford-on-Avon

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Profiling does work, but if I were prosecutor I would never use it in a case against a suspect...even with tons of other evidence.

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Gman,


                              Profiles aren't ment to be used as evidence, they are used to narrow down suspect lists. To help spot potential suspects based on the particular behavior found in a murder or other violent and minor crimes.

                              Yours truly
                              Washington Irving:

                              "To a homeless man, who has no spot on this wide world which he can truly call his own, there is a momentary feeling of something like independence and territorial consequence, when, after a weary day's travel, he kicks off his boots, thrusts his feet into slippers, and stretches himself before an inn fire. Let the world without go as it may; let kingdoms rise and fall, so long as he has the wherewithal to pay his bills, he is, for the time being, the very monarch of all he surveys. The arm chair in his throne; the poker his sceptre, and the little parlour of some twelve feet square, his undisputed empire. "

                              Stratford-on-Avon

                              Comment

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