Greatest hoax of all time?

[Robert]

Q : Who said, "I shall soon have five sides"?

A : A psychic quadrilateral.

[Sam Flynn]

Q : Who said, "I shall soon have five sides"?

A : A psychic quadrilateral.

Or a hexagon on a low-carb diet.

[Steadmund Brand]

I think he needs to change his name to the Unamazing Randi

Why is that? Just curious, I know everyone is entitled to their opinion, but what about Randi do you not like, do you not think the work he has done is valuable?

Again, I am not saying you are wrong in your opinion, people can disagree (it's called maturity... not everyone can agree on everything), but I just am wondering what he has done you don't approve of?

Steadmund Brand

[Abby Normal]

Why is that? Just curious, I know everyone is entitled to their opinion, but what about Randi do you not like, do you not think the work he has done is valuable?

Again, I am not saying you are wrong in your opinion, people can disagree (it's called maturity... not everyone can agree on everything), but I just am wondering what he has done you don't approve of?

Steadmund Brand

hi stead
my bad. I mistakenly ready yours and CDs post as referring Randi as the BS psychic and not as the sceptic.

I looked him up on wiki-and realized hes the debunker and not the debukee.

thanks for helping me clear that up to myself! LOL

[Sam Flynn]

I looked [Randi] up on wiki-and realized hes the debunker and not the debukee.

And what a debunker! The man's a hero

[Magpie]

His book "Flim Flam" was fantastic

[Ginger]

The Amazing Randi tells the story of how he was asked to participate in a show about psychics. The crew drove to the Amityville Horror House and started setting up their camera equipment on the front lawn. Randi and the psychic got out of the car and the psychic said something like oh I can feel the evil coming from the house all the way out here. A guy on the porch of the house next door asked what are you doing? They told him they were doing a show on the House and psychics. He said the House is down the street in the next block. So much for psychics.

c.d.

I've a longstanding interest in the American Civil War in general, and in the Battle of Gettysburg in particular. I've walked the field on a number of occasions, and am familiar with the placement of the monuments, etc. Years ago, and I think this may have been on the History Channel, they took a self-proclaimed psychic (who supposedly knew nothing more of the battle than what she was taught in American History), to Gettysburg and had her give her "impressions" of the battlefield. They started her out at the southeast corner of McPherson's woods, where the rebels managed to dislodge First Corps from its position in an extremely bloody fight.

She did her trance thing, and announced that something crucial to the battle happened on this spot... tragedy struck someone on this spot... someone very important... a general... She was seeing his name as "John"... "John Richards", maybe...

Now the camera was about six feet away from her, so that with the direction she was facing, the cameraman *had* to have been backed up right against the base of a huge, 30 foot tall statue of Major General John Reynolds. The host of the show informed us breathlessly that this was the very spot where Reynolds received his death wound (It isn't, actually - he was shot about 100 feet from there, but this is where they put his statue).

She then went on to give her impression of Reynolds as a man who had an extremely forceful personality, sure of himself sometimes to the point of arrogance. Well, seriously, men who aren't cocksure of themselves seldom, if ever, become major generals, still less corps commanders.

Needless to say, I was unimpressed.

[Robert]

I'm trying to think of some way a 'psychic' could offer info about some event and it's info which it can reasonably be assumed that no one else knew, but is subsequently verified by a discovery. It's very hard.

[c.d.]

Hello Robert,

It could certainly be done regarding future events such as the results of a sporting event, an election or the stock market as examples. Ask the psychic for his predictions, and put them in a sealed envelope placed in a bank vault.

c.d.

[Robert]

Hi CD

Yes, if the future events were not amenable to influence by the psychic, then enough correct predictions would certainly raise eyebrows. I think the sealed envelope would be a stumbling block, since sceptics could suggest collusion of some sort with envelopes being switched. It would have to be a prediction made in full view of the public e.g. a TV prediction of an earthquake in two years' time in such and such a place - that sort of thing. Then no one could act to cause the event to happen, and no one could stop the event happening.

[Ginger]

Hi CD

Yes, if the future events were not amenable to influence by the psychic, then enough correct predictions would certainly raise eyebrows. I think the sealed envelope would be a stumbling block, since sceptics could suggest collusion of some sort with envelopes being switched. It would have to be a prediction made in full view of the public e.g. a TV prediction of an earthquake in two years' time in such and such a place - that sort of thing. Then no one could act to cause the event to happen, and no one could stop the event happening.

I hope I'll be pardoned for a late reply.

One of the best methods that I know to get a completely unpredictable random number from 0 to 9 is to use the ones digit from tomorrow's NYSE daily report of shares traded for a high-volume stock. You might plausibly be able to predict the thousands or ten-thousands - the ones, never.

[TomTomKent]

I'm going to nominate Cyril Burt's work "proving" intelligence to be a trait inherited, and not developed through nurture and education, simply because of the way it has impacted through society, and the way many have viewed education, for decades.

In short Burt published papers claiming to have studied the lives of sets of twins, one of whom had been adopted into working class families, and one of whom had remained with respectable professional or upper class families and 'proven' that even amongst her peers, the twin raised a shepherdess (for example) had shown an innate talent that shone through.

Even at the time of his death, in the 70's I believe this was an outdated point of view, and in theory, any kid who does well in their exams could expect to go on to a grammar school and higher education... But this study has been the defence of anybody who claimed that when number of pupils schools can take are limited, they should lean towards the "Good" families. It has been the justification for those who still harbour notions that the aristocracy are born better.

Except... there were issues with the papers. For a start, two women who were also listed as authors could not be traced, with no evidence they wrote papers before or since. There was also (if I recall correctly) doubt cast on the existence of the twins being studied. (And common sense should stop and make us ask exactly how many aristocrats were in the habit of offering one of their twin children for adoption while raising the other as a single child).

However, in the odd way of such things, even after the controversy of the Burt affair, this is still accepted as proven, by those who vaguely remember reading something about it somewhere.

[Abby Normal]

I hope I'll be pardoned for a late reply.

One of the best methods that I know to get a completely unpredictable random number from 0 to 9 is to use the ones digit from tomorrow's NYSE daily report of shares traded for a high-volume stock. You might plausibly be able to predict the thousands or ten-thousands - the ones, never.

Re predictions-I read somewhere something (awhile back) along the lines that if you ask enough people about a certain upcoming event, and give them options to chose, than the option most people pick is the option most likely to happen-and that its more accurate the more people you ask. And im not talking about betting odds vegas type thing.


as I remember the CIA, or one of US intel agencies was actually talking about setting up a public website to do just this to try and predict outcomes (like world events, stockmarkets, wars etc.).


Did anyone hear anything about this?

[Batman]

Re predictions-I read somewhere something (awhile back) along the lines that if you ask enough people about a certain upcoming event, and give them options to chose, than the option most people pick is the option most likely to happen-and that its more accurate the more people you ask. And im not talking about betting odds vegas type thing.


as I remember the CIA, or one of US intel agencies was actually talking about setting up a public website to do just this to try and predict outcomes (like world events, stockmarkets, wars etc.).


Did anyone hear anything about this?

I have never heard of this. Large sample sizes are good because it prevents bias. That's basically the idea behind having more people answer your questions than fewer. However, that doesn't mean they will be right. Heck, Copernicus and Galileo had to fight quite the uphill battle on that front. So did Darwin.

People can be a superstitious bunch when it comes down to it. So much so, plenty of politicians play to it.

Anyway, no, I haven't heard of that before.

[c.d.]

A funny story regarding Joseph Smith and Mormonism (well Mormonism anyway, sort of)

A number of years ago I was in a car pool with people with whom I worked. One day we got a new member, a woman who had just moved to D.C. after living in Salt Lake City for the last few years. Someone asked her how she liked it there. She replied that the city was really nice and she liked it but that she absolutely could not stand Mormons calling them a bunch of bigoted ***holes. She then went on about a five minute rant against them. When she had finished she looked around somewhat self-consciously and said I hope nobody here is a Mormon. I gave her a super dirty look and said I happen to be a Mormon (which I am not). She got real red in the face and apologized profusely until I told her that I was just kidding. Pretty funny (to me anyway). We ended up becoming good friends.

c.d.