Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Witness Testimony: Albert Cadosche

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • 'Time to introduce something new.

    I reckon it's fair to say that there are hundreds of studies undertaken by qualified people who tell us that human memory is a process of encoding, storing and retrieving information; and oft times the recollection is divorced from the event in at least some respect. That process is subject to external influence and internal bias.

    Those qualified people are authoritative in their discipline and it is entirely acceptable to cite them. Obviously, in the event the statistics and the evidence is sub-standard, then their qualification as an authority is diminished.

    This is the reason why historians judge a primary source according to its authoritative nature, at least in part. It's the reason why you will see footnotes on just about every article you read, citing qualified people. Clearly, an article on the history of London buses wouldn't cite an authority on London post boxes, nor someone who didn't really know much about London buses irrespective of any claim to be an authority on the subject.

    It is entirely legitimate to claim that the opinion of someone who is an authority on a subject, i.e. qualified, carries more weight than somebody who is not qualified in that subject. 'Don't believe me? Ask historians and consider every article you have read which is complete with footnotes citing qualified people as opposed to some fella sat in the pub with his dog.

    Anyway, in addition to that which has been put forward, let's have a look at the following.

    I'm making no comment on it at the moment with the exception of making one point. In the main, I'm putting it forward for consideration.

    The one point I'm making is as follows:

    We could argue until the cows come home about the percentages mentioned in the articles below, but there is a broad theme supporting that which I posted earlier, and that theme is memory doesn't work in the manner that the layman assumes; and that being the case they're telling us that taking Albert at face value simply because he spoke with confidence or because the layman finds it hard to believe that he couldn't remember the event as it actually was, is misplaced and uninformed confidence.

    A few articles among many:

    Brain Science: The Forgetting Curve–the Dirty Secret of Corporate Training : Learning Solutions | The Learning Guild

    Research on the forgetting curve (Figure 1) shows that within one hour, people will have forgotten an average of 50 percent of the information you presented. Within 24 hours, they have forgotten an average of 70 percent of new information, and within a week, forgetting claims an average of 90 percent of it.

    People remember only 20% of what they read… but 80% of what they see | by iDashboards UK | Medium

    Studies show that people remember: 10% of they hear, 20% of what they read, 80% of what they see. And this is because the human brain process visual cues better rather than the written language.

    Why do we remember what we remember? - Vox

    “Memorability might indicate how our brain prioritizes information,” Bainbridge (cognitive neuroscientist at the University of Chicago), says. “So almost like a sorting algorithm that you might imagine Google uses to search.” In other words, as our eyes scan an image, certain shapes, textures, objects, and attributes are prioritized to be stored in our memories, while others are deprioritized. This seems to happen instantaneously, and it’s something we’re apparently not consciously aware of.
    ​​​
    Last edited by Fleetwood Mac; 10-31-2023, 08:28 PM.

    Comment


    • I think what tends to be forgotten is authorities deal with percentages and averages, but in a court you need specifics. This is why we can't apply those conclusions to one person. I think you would also find those same authorities would not suggest you judge a witness using their conclusions.
      Police do take witness statements as offered in good faith, they have no other choice. We are required to do the same.
      The British system of "innocent until proven guilty" also applies to witnesses - truthful until proven otherwise, or possibly "accurate, until proven otherwise" might be better.
      Police know the fallibility of an eye witness, which is why they interview them as soon as possible after the event. The chances are pretty good a witness will get something wrong, it's just they don't know what.
      It still does not mean they will dismiss the statement of an eye witness. The final test will always be when they appear in court. The final judgement will always be by the Jury, Judge or Magistrate, not the press, public or some future researcher.
      Regards, Jon S.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Fleetwood Mac View Post

        Ad hominem.

        And, 'stacking the deck fallacy': intentionally ignoring the evidence while proceeding to put forth an argument.
        The irony.

        Regards

        Sir Herlock Sholmes.

        “A house of delusions is cheap to build but draughty to live in.”

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Wickerman View Post

          It still does not mean they will dismiss the statement of an eye witness.
          They certainly will not because that is a potential lead that needs investigating, and we know that on many an occasion eye-witnesses have gotten it right: we know from experience.

          My point here, Jon, is that Albert's assertion of confidence and the argument 'he could not have gotten it wrong' is at odds with what qualified people tell us about human memory.

          Long story short: Albert is not as cast-iron as many posters have put forward on other threads, and memory does not not work in the fashion that the average person assumes.

          Where the line is drawn in terms of doubt, well, that's debatable.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Fleetwood Mac View Post
            'Time to introduce something new.

            I reckon it's fair to say that there are hundreds of studies undertaken by qualified people who tell us that human memory is a process of encoding, storing and retrieving information; and oft times the recollection is divorced from the event in at least some respect. That process is subject to external influence and internal bias.

            Those qualified people are authoritative in their discipline and it is entirely acceptable to cite them. Obviously, in the event the statistics and the evidence is sub-standard, then their qualification as an authority is diminished.

            This is the reason why historians judge a primary source according to its authoritative nature, at least in part. It's the reason why you will see footnotes on just about every article you read, citing qualified people. Clearly, an article on the history of London buses wouldn't cite an authority on London post boxes, nor someone who didn't really know much about London buses irrespective of any claim to be an authority on the subject.

            It is entirely legitimate to claim that the opinion of someone who is an authority on a subject, i.e. qualified, carries more weight than somebody who is not qualified in that subject. 'Don't believe me? Ask historians and consider every article you have read which is complete with footnotes citing qualified people as opposed to some fella sat in the pub with his dog.

            Anyway, in addition to that which has been put forward, let's have a look at the following.

            I'm making no comment on it at the moment with the exception of making one point. In the main, I'm putting it forward for consideration.

            The one point I'm making is as follows:

            We could argue until the cows come home about the percentages mentioned in the articles below, but there is a broad theme supporting that which I posted earlier, and that theme is memory doesn't work in the manner that the layman assumes; and that being the case they're telling us that taking Albert at face value simply because he spoke with confidence or because the layman finds it hard to believe that he couldn't remember the event as it actually was, is misplaced and uninformed confidence.

            A few articles among many:

            Brain Science: The Forgetting Curve–the Dirty Secret of Corporate Training : Learning Solutions | The Learning Guild

            Research on the forgetting curve (Figure 1) shows that within one hour, people will have forgotten an average of 50 percent of the information you presented. Within 24 hours, they have forgotten an average of 70 percent of new information, and within a week, forgetting claims an average of 90 percent of it.

            People remember only 20% of what they read… but 80% of what they see | by iDashboards UK | Medium

            Studies show that people remember: 10% of they hear, 20% of what they read, 80% of what they see. And this is because the human brain process visual cues better rather than the written language.

            Why do we remember what we remember? - Vox

            “Memorability might indicate how our brain prioritizes information,” Bainbridge (cognitive neuroscientist at the University of Chicago), says. “So almost like a sorting algorithm that you might imagine Google uses to search.” In other words, as our eyes scan an image, certain shapes, textures, objects, and attributes are prioritized to be stored in our memories, while others are deprioritized. This seems to happen instantaneously, and it’s something we’re apparently not consciously aware of.
            ​​​
            All pointless. A million and one different ways of saying that witnesses can sometimes be mistaken. A complete waste of time and effort from someone trying to desperately to shoehorn an earlier ToD into place. Something which is completely anti-evidence and comes from someone with selective respect for experts as we saw from the frankly desperate attempts at second guessing the forensic experts.

            Clearly what’s happening here is that you’ve realise how embarrassingly weak the earlier ToD stuff is and now you’re trying a different tactic. You haven’t produced a single thing that weakens the witnesses one iota no matter how much Latin you throw at it.
            Regards

            Sir Herlock Sholmes.

            “A house of delusions is cheap to build but draughty to live in.”

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes View Post

              The irony.
              Indiscriminate application of headshakes and the word 'irony' fallacy.

              At this rate, they're in danger of losing their usefulness.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Fleetwood Mac View Post


                My point here, Jon, is that Albert's assertion of confidence and the argument 'he could not have gotten it wrong' is at odds with what qualified people tell us about human memory.

                Long story short: Albert is not as cast-iron as many posters have put forward on other threads, and memory does not not work in the fashion that the average person assumes.
                The point though is, the stats are equally applicable to all witnesses, so they are all reduced in viability by the same percentage, which means it is a wash, and has no effect on one individual witness to the detriment or benefit of others.
                Last edited by Wickerman; 10-31-2023, 09:59 PM.
                Regards, Jon S.

                Comment


                • Three witnesses versus a 19th century Doctors unreluable estimation. Not close.
                  Regards

                  Sir Herlock Sholmes.

                  “A house of delusions is cheap to build but draughty to live in.”

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Fleetwood Mac View Post

                    Indiscriminate application of headshakes and the word 'irony' fallacy.

                    At this rate, they're in danger of losing their usefulness.
                    Regards

                    Sir Herlock Sholmes.

                    “A house of delusions is cheap to build but draughty to live in.”

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Wickerman View Post

                      The point though is, the stats are equally applicable to all witnesses, so they are all reduced in viability by the same percentage, which means it is a wash, and has no effect on one individual witness to the detriment of others.
                      I'd disagree.

                      Let's say 50% of men over 60 are bald.

                      We're going to meet someone over 60 whom we'd never met in the past and nobody else had either, and you're asked the question: what are the chances he is bald?

                      Well it's 1 in 2.

                      What you appear to be saying is that he can't be bald because it's only statistics and statistics have no bearing on the individual.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes View Post

                        All pointless. A million and one different ways of saying that witnesses can sometimes be mistaken. A complete waste of time and effort from someone trying to desperately to shoehorn an earlier ToD into place. Something which is completely anti-evidence and comes from someone with selective respect for experts as we saw from the frankly desperate attempts at second guessing the forensic experts.

                        Clearly what’s happening here is that you’ve realise how embarrassingly weak the earlier ToD stuff is and now you’re trying a different tactic. You haven’t produced a single thing that weakens the witnesses one iota no matter how much Latin you throw at it.
                        The voice of reason.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Fleetwood Mac View Post

                          I'd disagree.

                          Let's say 50% of men over 60 are bald.
                          That is too vague.

                          The assumption is all witnesses have hair, and your stats suggest 50% of men over 60 are bald.

                          We're going to meet someone over 60 whom we'd never met in the past and nobody else had either, and you're asked the question: what are the chances he is bald?

                          Well it's 1 in 2.

                          What you appear to be saying is that he can't be bald because it's only statistics and statistics have no bearing on the individual.
                          No, what I'm saying is you have determined 'Albert Cadosch' to be bald, based on your stats, when in fact Cadosch could be one of the Hippy 50% or the bald 50%, but so could all the other witnesses.

                          (Not a good analogy, actually)

                          I can't understand why you don't see that your stats, by there very nature, must be applicable to all witnesses. Thats how they were created. Yet when we apply their conclusion to all witnesses they become inconclusive.

                          Regards, Jon S.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Fleetwood Mac View Post

                            The voice of reason.
                            Definitely. As opposed to desperation, obfuscation and bias.
                            Regards

                            Sir Herlock Sholmes.

                            “A house of delusions is cheap to build but draughty to live in.”

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Wickerman View Post

                              No, what I'm saying is you have determined 'Albert Cadosch' to be bald, based on your stats, when in fact Cadosch could be one of the Hippy 50% or the bald 50%, but so could all the other witnesses.
                              In that case you've misunderstood my posts. At no point did I say Albert was bald.

                              I too think Albert could have been a hippy or he could have been bald.

                              We've reached agreement in that there is room to doubt Albert's recollection of the event.

                              When I say I doubt, I mean Albert's statement isn't cast-iron, and as I've said repeatedly the level of doubt is open to debate.

                              That's what the last articles I posted were about: food for thought, how much doubt and so on.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Fleetwood Mac View Post

                                I'd disagree.

                                Let's say 50% of men over 60 are bald.

                                We're going to meet someone over 60 whom we'd never met in the past and nobody else had either, and you're asked the question: what are the chances he is bald?

                                Well it's 1 in 2.

                                What you appear to be saying is that he can't be bald because it's only statistics and statistics have no bearing on the individual.
                                No he is saying that if you deem Cadosh to be mentally impaired by fake memories, based on the generalisation of "Memory is flawed" then you need to either make a specific case to apply the relevant points of the science you keep citing to the witness you chose; and show your case in action, OR you should apply it in the same generalised sense to anyone who cannot be absolutely proven to be reliable, and not suffering from the same phantom mental imbalance you want to establish in Cadosch.

                                Since you are reluctant/unable to present a case for the specific criteria that apply to Cadosch in line with the theories over witness memory and the "Misinformation Effect" and present a reasonable case of the specific triggers and/or illiciting effects to substantiate them, (beyond studies that repeatedly refer to external witness manipulation, and explain various specific psychological processes that lead to the issues described,) in the case of this witness in particular, (whom you chose to focus on,) then everything you are saying about general witness fallibility needs to be applied with an even hand. So every witness who cannot be established to have a full and reliable recollection of events should be treated the same way as you keep trying to treat Cadosch.
                                .
                                At the moment its still just a theory of "Psychology, innit!" until you actually apply the science in a practical way, rather than just telling everyone it exists.
                                You've shown us you know where to find the science. Now demonstrate that you actually undertsand it and apply it to the witness you want to discuss.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X