Originally posted by The Baron
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Long stated she saw Chapman with a man at 5.30am. If Philip's TOD is correct, Long was either mistaken or she too lied. This too is possible.
Cadosch says he heard a noise in the next yard at around 5.30am, number 29. He heard voices and a woman say NO. If Philip's TOD is correct, then Cadosch was either mistaken or lied. This too is possible.
So, we have to ask which is more probable
a) Philip's TOD was inaccurate either because rigor set in more quickly than usual or because he made a mistake about rigor setting in.
b) or, three separate people lied or made a mistake, even though within a few minutes, all their mistakes or lies confirmed each others' account.
FYI - I have no view on Lechmere as a suspect, so not coloured by that argument. Clearly though, the balance of probability is very heavily weighed in the favour of Philip's TOD being inaccurate. Chapman must have been killed shortly after 5.30am. I don't think this discounts Lechmere as a suspect - people bunk off work all the time.
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