Location of Annie Millwood's attack

[JeffHamm]

Ok, so I've increased the detailed map size from above, and have now come up with the output that presents all the zones fully calculated. The first includes Millwood, Tabram, Nichols, Chapman, Stride, Eddowes, and Kelly, and the 2nd removes Stride. Because the smaller maps are large enough to show all of the top zones, those don't change, it's the zones that go "off the map" that end up being inaccurately presented on the smaller maps. Anyway, I'll present these just so there's a version of the whole analysis available to anyone who wants to have a look.

The eastern small red zone (part of zones 18-20; so low but still "better than chance" if JtR did live there), is interesting in some ways because of the proximity to near direct routes along major roads/streets to both Nichols, Stride, and the main area of the crimes. This would mean JtR is travelling to most of the crimes along Commercial Road. My problem with that area, though, is that if we include Stride and Eddowes, as this analysis does, JtR's known movements are entirely of someone not going to that location. While it might be tempting to try and aruge "ahh, clever boy, trying to throw off the scent", that entirely runs up to the problem of, 1) if JtR were that clever, he's clever enough to know that the longer he's out in public with a human kidney on him, the great and greater chances of getting caught. His primary concern would be to get out of sight. It's important to view these only for what they are, the result of a pattern analysis of locations and how crime locations have related to other offender's anchor points (residences), and to then see what parts may fit best with regards to the specific series under investigation.

And now if we remove Stride from consideration:


And there we have it. Enjoy, I've certainly had fun. This is the first time I've done the full analysis for the JtR crimes so it's interesting to see the whole thing.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Thanks Kattrup. It's an interesting area of research, limitations notwithstanding. It's not magic, and it doesn't narrow things down to a specific house or anything like that, rather, it suggests regions to prioritize first for a search, and guides a search pattern. The output of this sort of analysis should always be overridden by actual evidence or leads uncovered during an investigation. If there are multiple "persons of interests", it can be used to help rank them to some extent, as a way of optimizing the limited resources of time and costs. The larger the area over which offenses occur, the larger the zones (each zone has an area equal to 5% of 1/2 the crime region - the 1/2 is because if you search an area randomly, you'll find the location after searching 1/2 of it on average). I'm still doing work on this, and trying to find better and more reliable predictors, and combinations of predictors, so again, I'm not putting these out there as anything other than stuff I find interesting and wanted to share with those who might also enjoy thinking of the locations it highlights and how well they may, or may not, fit in to the bigger picture.

I would really like a decent map that has accurate placements of all the crimes, and all the suspects. I think Kosminski and Tumblety have been suggested to be located north and a bit west, or just a short distance north east, respectively, of Stride, and their locations fall in zones 44 and 31, respectively, which is quite far down (this is including Millwood, Tabram, and all of the C5: I won't go through all the combinations as I'm just presenting this as illustrative and also for that I've used a different map of the area which is larger so the more extreme zones get better calculated, but even in this smaller version those locations are in the green area.

Also, I just double checked my previous post with the "exclude Stride" map, and realized I hadn't all of the settings proper. I've redone that, and it looks like this (so this has Millwood, Tabram, and the C5 except Stride). Notice the two paths of travel are quite different, one capturing the locations running noth-south (Chapman to Eddowes) and the other more east-west, due to Nichol's location. The Goulston Graffito now is in zone 2 (just under the EE in Street), and Hanbury Street is now in zone 4:


And to get a better picture of the output, and to see how having a map that's too small influences the output (has to do with calculating the area a zone spans; even this larger map appears to be too small - the full thing would end up with nothing going off the map. There's an interesting "bump" down in the South East though), I've redone the above analysis on a larger map. I've also put in some letters to mark the location of Stride (the white S), and the K and T mark locations associated with Kosminski and Tumblety (I think K marks his relations' residence, where he was thought to be staying; can't remember where I got the information about Tumblety, but no doubt from a discussion found here). Anyway, neither gets much better if Stride is included. I think there's a suspect, Levy? might be the name, who is very near, and maybe in, zone 1 though. Again, doesn't mean he's the one, just would be a suspect that this analysis would suggest deserves a closer look (I know nothing about him myself, just remember seeing a map with a suspect right in that area, but I can't find it and I'm not sure I'm even remembering the name properly, it is not one of the often discussed suspects though - so not Druit, Kosminsky, etc).



I must really make a huge map that's big enough to show the whole thing. It increases the time for the analysis to run, so for now, while I'm developing and researching, I've been using undersized maps for speed.

- Jeff

[Kattrup]

Thank you, Jeff. It's very interesting.

[JeffHamm]

The difference between the two has a lot to do with the estimation of the "main routes of travel". When Stride is include, both Nichols' and Stride's locations are flagged as being "outliers" - meaning off the major route, and the estimation of the major route passes more vertically (sort of Eddowes to Chapman type thing). A few other calculations change as well, but those changes are more subtle (the output is, after all, influenced by the data you put in). One of the important things to get right is the crime linkage - while one would want an analysis like this to be robust against some erroneous inputs and/or omissions, the better the data the better chance of getting a useful output. At the moment, my analysis program's output is influenced if the map (the image file) doesn't contain a large enough area for the search (like this one; it's not big enough for even the red zones, and the green zones clearly extend off the map; there are two additional zones after that, which have to do with commuters - offenders who live outside the circle (outside the crime region as it's called). The image file really needs to have a large enough "surround" to plot all 4 of those zones, but really big images take a long time to process. Also, I'm still working on the underlying routines (this is all stuff being worked on and researched, and while so far the few tests I've been able to do with solved cases have been encouraging, the sample is too small to say anything other than it's worth continuing with).

For example, here's the BTK (Dennis Rader) output. The blue square near the top (in Park city) marks his residence, which is right in zone 1, and for this the image file is large enough to show all of zones 1-6, so those will be fine, but after that the details from zone 7 onwards will be slightly out, but we're seeing enough to get a good idea.



For the Golden State Killer (Joseph James DeAngelo), again, the map image file I have is undersized, so the zone boundaries are going to be off a bit once the zone extends "off screen". He's right on the border of zone2 and 3, but, provided the areas to the north don't contain part of zone 3 or better, that shouldn't change. At some point I'll need to get the program to deal with the "off image space", but there's a few other things that I need to focus on first. And yes, I fully admit, I'm showing the impressive ones, it's not perfect, and there are cases where it fails miserably. But, while the ideal would be to get something that is always right, for something as complex and individualistic as serial crimes, I would be happy with the more modest goal of getting something that much more often than not provides a better than chance search pattern. And it's only a suggested search pattern, geographical profiling doesn't "solve" crimes, it's just a tool that can be used by investigators as they work on solving the crimes. If they get leads on a suspect that doesn't live in a "suggested zone", then they should ignore the profile. These are useful to suggest where to start to search, particularly if leads are not forthcoming.

[JeffHamm]

Oops, forgot to turn off some of the graphics used in the calcuations. The red and green lines are estimates of general optimal routes of travel.

[JeffHamm]

Here's what we get if we ignore Stride. Shifts things a bit, but the lower area, while not in the exact same place, is still favoured.

[JeffHamm]

Oh, ignore the coloured dots, those are not crime locations but are locations that get calculated and used in the maths.

[Sam Flynn]

Fascinating stuff, Jeff. Out of curiosity, what does the picture look like if we exclude Stride?

[JeffHamm]

Ok, if I include Annie Millwood's attack as occurring in White's Row, here's the output of the geographical profiling program I'm working on. The pinkish areas are "zone 1" (so start searching here) and each contour line marks off another zone. Basically, and without getting into too much detail, I work out how big an area one would have to search by chance to locate the offender's anchor point (usually their home). This area is 1/2 the area of the circle defined by the maximum distance between two crimes (Eddowes and Nichols) x 1.25 - this is based on the finding that 80% or more offenders tend to live within in that circle. The red bits are all better than chance searching (given the map I have here, it's a bit too small and the area calculations get off some, but the location of the hot spots wouldn't change), which means, if JtR lives in there the profile is better than random searching. Each zone is 5% of this chance area (so if JtR did live within the pink zone, that means we've reduced the search required to 5% of a random search). This program located BTK in Zone 1, Ted Bundy and also the Golden State Killer in zone 2, and McArthur (in Toronto) was located in zone 7 (for this last one it locates the house he used to store his tools and where the bodies were kept rather than his residence). That doesn't mean it always gets it right, the Boston Strangler was in zone 20 (which is no better than chance), for example, and Son of Sam is way out as he was a commuter (lives outside the circle where most are located).

anyway, both hotspots are in interesting locations. The graffito is right in the middle of the lower one, and the upper one around Hanbury Street makes some sense as if JtR killed Chapman close to 5:30, after the sun was coming up, he might only have felt sure enough to do so because he had very little distance to go to wash up and change clothes, etc. Mind you, one can always make sense of any location, so take this with a very large grain of salt.

[JeffHamm]

In my copy of Sudgen it reads "At 5:00 pm that day Annie Millwood, widow of Richard Millwood, a soldier, was admitted to the Whitechapel Workhouse Infirmary from 8 White's Row, Spitalfields." A-Z indicates that was her residence, so I took Sudgen to mean just that so it's not entirely clear to me that the attack happened there, but of course, it could have.

[Stephen Lee]

I always thought the stabbing happened in Whites Row also. Though it isn't very clear as she was lodging in White's Row as well. The JTR map (by Geoff Cooper) has the attack being committed there. Sugden says she was brought to the infirmary from White's Row, and Eddleston in his Encyclopedia say she was brought in after being found stabbed in White's Row.
It is made a bit blurry because of where she was lodging so it may have happened elsewhere.

[JeffHamm]

Hi Darryl,

Yes, looking to regain his money seems very likely and more plausible (although the pocket was under her dress and sounds sort of like a larger money belt arrangement to me so she may have kept the money in a more accessible location, which he retrieved already. He may just have found the pocket around her waist after lifting her dress and was looking for more money perhaps? Given a piece of muslin was found with Annie, either she had more cloth and he took some, or my speculation is wrong.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Hi Abby Normal,

Yes, I think if one includes Tabram as a Ripper victim then Millwood becomes a very plausible as well. I like your observation of the knife progression as well.

- Jeff

[Darryl Kenyon]

Oh, just to add, the Keppel et al, 2005 article doesn't mention the learning to "clean up" aspect of the progression (just something I thought of, and it could be wrong as there is evidence that JtR looked through Chapman's posessions so maybe he was looking for something to do the same then, but that's speculation on my part).

It's possible that the killer was looking for the money he had given Annie when he was looking through her possessions as I doubt she would go into the corner of a backyard without a transaction having taken first.

[Abby Normal]

The reason I'm asking is I'm considering how her case might fit into the pattern. I know there is lots of room for debate concerning what victims should be grouped as JtR, and those that should be set aside as "murder by someone else". Also, while I do not have any strong stance on this (I can see the logic behind including or excluding Stride, and for including or excluding Tabram, etc). For the purpose of my thinking here, I'm considering the implications that follow if includes Tabram.

Then, what we see is an evolving killer, learning from prior crimes, and an escalation in the amount of mutilation. Tabram appears to have been strangled (silenced; nobody in the building heard anything;etc) and then repeatedly stabbed in the breasts, stomach, and genital regions. One wound much larger than the rest (so, if that's the first wound, then we have strangulation -> major injury designed to kill -> additional injuries designed to satisfy some need to mutilate). Stabbing would result in a fair amount of blood on the killer (even if not from arterial spray, from the repeated drawing and stabbing motion there would be cast off, etc). Nichols, we see a change to strangulation -> throat cutting -> cutting mutilations of abdominal regions; then with Chapman, Eddowes, and Kelly there's a progression to organ harvesting (womb, kidney, and heart, respectively), with Eddowes we see the first signs of taking clothing from the victim to clean up (learning to reduce his risk while in public), and with Kelly a move to an indoor location. All of these suggest a progression in terms of learning how to change his behaviours to increase his ability to engage in satisfying a need to mutilate/destroy his victims. (yes, this presentation can be argued against, but I'm just setting the premises here, and ones that while not agreed upon by all, are not novel either). (This progression isn't mine, but comes from The Jack the Ripper Murders: A Modus Operandi and Signature Analysis of the 1888-1891 Whitechapel Murders" - Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling 2: 1-21 (2005) - Robert D. Keppel, Joseph G. Weis, Katherine M. Brown and Kristen Welch).

So, if JtR is learning how to commit his crimes more effectively as the series progresses (and that's going to happen; criminals learn from their past crimes), then if Tabram was part of the series, but not his first attack, we would expect to find an earlier attack that is a less skillfully committed version. And to me, Annie Millwood's injuries (what little we know of them) could fit the bill.

She was stabbed in the legs and around her groin, by a man she did not know, etc. She escaped without being killed, however, and would have screamed and called for help, he would have gotten blood on his clothes as he stabbed her while she was standing (I'm assuming she was). So, if that were JtR's first attack, then Tabram's assault is JtR's "improvement" version. He realizes he has to silence the victim first, so he strangles her and then makes sure she's dead. And while he is then able to engage in his sexualiaed attacks on her, he still gets more blood on him than he wants (increases his risk of detection), and switches to cutting rather than stabbing.

His fear of getting caught after Millwood survived her attack would be very high, hence the long delay between her attack and that on Tabram (and that gives him the time to work out how to improve his technique).

So, there is a line of reasoning one could follow that suggests that if you include Tabram, you have to seriously consider the possibility that Millwood should be included as well (but of course, one has to be cautious as we know so little about her case).

Finally, one of the areas that I am doing research in (in my real job), is geographical analyses of crime locations. The first step, of course, is knowing what crimes to link. But, even if we link Millwood to the series, which one could argue for (as per above - note again, arguing for doesn't mean you're right, just that there are reasons to consider the possibility as a reasonable one), then it becomes important to know where the crime took place. It's not enough to know where the victim lived if the attack didn't take place there, it's where the attack occurred that is the geographical location of interest.

But if this information is lost to us, or is at least unknown to us, I would really like to know that. Even better would be finding out that the attack location has been discovered, of course.

- Jeff

hi jeff
I think millwood and tabram were ripper victims and yes-shows a progression and escalation as the ripper is working out what is most efficiant way to kill and what exactly he wants to do.

also re progression: millwood was attacked with a small clasp knife which he took out of his pocket. realizing this small knife is not enough next time out with tabram he brings a larger one too-there is evidence that tabram was stabbed by two different knives-a smaller one and a larger one.