Location of Annie Millwood's attack

[Wolf Vanderlinden]

Also, although we don't know exactly where Tumblety was living during the murders it wasn't Batty Street.

Wolf.

[Wolf Vanderlinden]

You are both right. His "earliest known address" was 70 West India Dock Road in Poplar. He then moved to 126 Cable Street (where he was likely living at the time of the murders).

Wolf.

[Abby Normal]

Just to point out that Klosowski wasn't living in the White Hart in late Summer/Autumn 1888. Assuming he'd even arrived in London by the time of the Tabram/Nichols murders (which is by no means certain), his earliest known address was in the West India Dock Road, which is a long way off the map.

hey sam
I thought he was at cable street during the ripper murders?

[Sam Flynn]

Just to point out that Klosowski wasn't living in the White Hart in late Summer/Autumn 1888. Assuming he'd even arrived in London by the time of the Tabram/Nichols murders (which is by no means certain), his earliest known address was in the West India Dock Road, which is a long way off the map.

[Abby Normal]

Thanks AbbyNormal, Yes, pink is zone 1. I've put the key on the output map below (using the last output map posted above), and I've tried to locate as best I can some of the suspects based on the map in A-Z. Each zone is the same size in area (same # of pixels). Take the two most distant crimes (Eddowes and Nichols) and extend beyond each one by 12.5% of that distance, then use that to draw a circle. That's the area of the crime zone where Mauraders are found. If you randomly searched, you would have to search 50% of that on average to find a maurader, so take 1/2 that area. That's the average area you would have to search randomly to find the offender if they were a maurader (and roughly 80% are). Take 5% of the chance area, and that defines the area of a zone. So, if an offender lived in zones 1-20, it's doing better than random searching. By zone 40, you've searched the equivalent area of the crime zone. So, if the offender is not there, you might search a ring around the crime zone of equal area. And so, cyan and blue extend the search similarly; if the offender is a communter and lives outside the crime zone, but in the cyan zone, you're doing better than chance (although you had to exhaust red/green because we start with the higher probability of a maurader).

Anyway, I'm not sure where on Commercial Street Hutchinson was; but if people know, then I'm more than happy for people copy this down to make additions and updates. Feel free to place suspects, or other important locations, on any of the maps I've posted.

- Jeff

thanks Jeff
very interesting! fyi-I don't know hutchs exact address but he was at the Victoria home.

[Abby Normal]

I've made a start:

hahahahahahaha!

[JeffHamm]

thanks jeff
whats zone one on this? the pink areas? also can you label the colors as to there zones?

Thanks AbbyNormal, Yes, pink is zone 1. I've put the key on the output map below (using the last output map posted above), and I've tried to locate as best I can some of the suspects based on the map in A-Z. Each zone is the same size in area (same # of pixels). Take the two most distant crimes (Eddowes and Nichols) and extend beyond each one by 12.5% of that distance, then use that to draw a circle. That's the area of the crime zone where Mauraders are found. If you randomly searched, you would have to search 50% of that on average to find a maurader, so take 1/2 that area. That's the average area you would have to search randomly to find the offender if they were a maurader (and roughly 80% are). Take 5% of the chance area, and that defines the area of a zone. So, if an offender lived in zones 1-20, it's doing better than random searching. By zone 40, you've searched the equivalent area of the crime zone. So, if the offender is not there, you might search a ring around the crime zone of equal area. And so, cyan and blue extend the search similarly; if the offender is a communter and lives outside the crime zone, but in the cyan zone, you're doing better than chance (although you had to exhaust red/green because we start with the higher probability of a maurader).

Anyway, I'm not sure where on Commercial Street Hutchinson was; but if people know, then I'm more than happy for people copy this down to make additions and updates. Feel free to place suspects, or other important locations, on any of the maps I've posted.

- Jeff

[Sam Flynn]

I think it would also be interesting... to also plot the locations of known suspects to see what zones they show up on

I've made a start:

[Abby Normal]

I think it would also be interesting, once the zones are plotted, say for just the C5 to keep it as conservative as possible, to also plot the locations of known suspects to see what zones they show up on. For example we know the addresses of the following suspects: Kaminsky, Hutchinson, Lechmere, bury, kozminsky, etc. and any others where we know there addresses in fall of 88.

[Abby Normal]

I've done the analysis below, but I'm not sure where Black Lion Yard is located? Kaminsky, in the A-Z map, would not be in zone 1 though. While it might seem intuitive that zone 1 should be very central, offenders tend to live closer to the edge of the crime zone than the centre (not always, and there are exceptions, but this sort of analysis is based upon probability distributions so it tends to weight very central locations as low probability areas). As can be seen, once Tabram and Millwood, are removed, the pattern of offences no longer has a North-South tendency on the west side. The data set of solved crimes that I have to work from, which is limited - and the crimes are arson, which is a different offense type, finds that in these circular type of offense patterns the offender is often located on the same circle, hence the sort of doughnut shape that's forming. I'm not sure how much I would trust the potential routes (red and green lines) in this case, as really, there's no strong pattern of clustering along the routes (as happens once the Millwood and Tabram locations are included; a N-S type corridor starts to form in the west). But, for the sake of keeping all things the same, I've left them turned on. The area around Tabram has diminished, but tow areas close to Nichols (now the first in the series) start to be suggested. Also, the Goulston Street area remains fairly high (it's now zone 3, but that's still quite high). I've been working on a different approach than the routines that are out there, and while similar regions are sometimes suggested, it is not uncommon for entirely different outputs to result. Again, given that there will always be some in the "low probability zones", it may be that where we differ is one set that are in my low zones are in their high zones, but another set that are in their low zones end up in my high zones. Also, and I can't stress this enough, my stuff is still very experimental and under development. It also needs a lot more testing, and verification. So far, based upon the solved cases I've been able to track down online or in academic papers, it's done pretty good with serial murders despite the data I use to work out the algorithms are arson cases so either I've been lucky so far, or there is something to it.

One thing I would really like to be able to work out is some indication as to whether the offender is likely to be a maurader (meaning lives within the crime zone) or a commuter (travels to the crime zone from outside of it). I believe it's approx 20% of solved cases for serial rape and murder are commuters, and geoprofiling tends to assume a maurader (since that's the majority). That basically means it's going to be wrong 20% of the time because the offender doesn't live anywhere near the zone being suggested.

thanks jeff
whats zone one on this? the pink areas? also can you lable the colors as to there zones?

[Robert]

Hi Jeff

https://wiki.casebook.org/black_lion_yard.html

[JeffHamm]

Just for fun, I've turned on all of the predictors I have, not all of which have been tested "in use", but all have some preliminary analyses to suggest they could be useful. The output is fairly similar to the above, but not quite. Now, I'm posting this because some will find this to their liking. The section of zone one in the lower left contains Dr. Thyne's surgery, which some have argued might have been Druitt's "bolt hole" (I believe that idea may have been refuted as he may not have had his surgery there in 1888 if I recall correctly). Also, for those of the Doctor school, or Donston, yes, the hospital is in zone one. What I find interesting is the part of zone 1 that is in the north east, it's close to Nichol's (first of a series is often, though not always, a bit closer to the offender's anchor point), and it's on easy access routes to Chapman (who, being likely killed at dawn, I tend to think lends support to the idea the killer was highly familiar with that area and lived nearby; but again, that's just my own speculation).

As a final warning, however, geographical profiling is based upon the idea of finding a stable anchor point for the offender. Many people in Whitechappel were highly mobile, and might move from doss house to doss house. There is every reason to be cautious as Jack may have been transient, and so the anchor point could be moving. If so, this series is highly unsuited for attempting to locate him - it's not great with moving targets (unless they just shift a bit, there is some tolerance, but if he's starting out from a different location each time, well, the analysis won't apply. It's just math not magic so will always produce something, but if it is garbage in it's garbage out.

[JeffHamm]

If I turn off the routes, the number of predictors being used is reduced, and that starts to have a negative impact on it's accuracy. At the moment, this is only based upon 3 predictors as it is (the routes being one of them). There are some other potentially useful predictors that can be added, but so far, based upon my testing, adding them in tends to have a greater detrimental effect when it shifts the zone away from the offenders residence than it helps when it shifts toward. I'm hoping to find at least 1 more well behaved parameter that generally tends to improve the solutions, but still working on that. Unfortunately, for the data set I'm working with, I don't have the sequence order, nor time of day or dates, so temporal aspects of a series I can't build in.

[JeffHamm]

Hi jeff
interestingly i just saw a bit on geoprofiling to ID the ripper on the show what on earth? On the science channel. It ids nathan kaminsky of black lion yard as being smack dab in the middle of zone one. According to there analysis.

i beleive they only used the c5 victims.

it would be interesting to see what you come up with using c5 and match it to known suspects to see if any come up in zone one and or to see if black lion yard also comes up as in the middle of zone 1 according to your analysis.

I've done the analysis below, but I'm not sure where Black Lion Yard is located? Kaminsky, in the A-Z map, would not be in zone 1 though. While it might seem intuitive that zone 1 should be very central, offenders tend to live closer to the edge of the crime zone than the centre (not always, and there are exceptions, but this sort of analysis is based upon probability distributions so it tends to weight very central locations as low probability areas). As can be seen, once Tabram and Millwood, are removed, the pattern of offences no longer has a North-South tendency on the west side. The data set of solved crimes that I have to work from, which is limited - and the crimes are arson, which is a different offense type, finds that in these circular type of offense patterns the offender is often located on the same circle, hence the sort of doughnut shape that's forming. I'm not sure how much I would trust the potential routes (red and green lines) in this case, as really, there's no strong pattern of clustering along the routes (as happens once the Millwood and Tabram locations are included; a N-S type corridor starts to form in the west). But, for the sake of keeping all things the same, I've left them turned on. The area around Tabram has diminished, but tow areas close to Nichols (now the first in the series) start to be suggested. Also, the Goulston Street area remains fairly high (it's now zone 3, but that's still quite high). I've been working on a different approach than the routines that are out there, and while similar regions are sometimes suggested, it is not uncommon for entirely different outputs to result. Again, given that there will always be some in the "low probability zones", it may be that where we differ is one set that are in my low zones are in their high zones, but another set that are in their low zones end up in my high zones. Also, and I can't stress this enough, my stuff is still very experimental and under development. It also needs a lot more testing, and verification. So far, based upon the solved cases I've been able to track down online or in academic papers, it's done pretty good with serial murders despite the data I use to work out the algorithms are arson cases so either I've been lucky so far, or there is something to it.

One thing I would really like to be able to work out is some indication as to whether the offender is likely to be a maurader (meaning lives within the crime zone) or a commuter (travels to the crime zone from outside of it). I believe it's approx 20% of solved cases for serial rape and murder are commuters, and geoprofiling tends to assume a maurader (since that's the majority). That basically means it's going to be wrong 20% of the time because the offender doesn't live anywhere near the zone being suggested.

[Abby Normal]

Ok, so I've increased the detailed map size from above, and have now come up with the output that presents all the zones fully calculated. The first includes Millwood, Tabram, Nichols, Chapman, Stride, Eddowes, and Kelly, and the 2nd removes Stride. Because the smaller maps are large enough to show all of the top zones, those don't change, it's the zones that go "off the map" that end up being inaccurately presented on the smaller maps. Anyway, I'll present these just so there's a version of the whole analysis available to anyone who wants to have a look.

The eastern small red zone (part of zones 18-20; so low but still "better than chance" if JtR did live there), is interesting in some ways because of the proximity to near direct routes along major roads/streets to both Nichols, Stride, and the main area of the crimes. This would mean JtR is travelling to most of the crimes along Commercial Road. My problem with that area, though, is that if we include Stride and Eddowes, as this analysis does, JtR's known movements are entirely of someone not going to that location. While it might be tempting to try and aruge "ahh, clever boy, trying to throw off the scent", that entirely runs up to the problem of, 1) if JtR were that clever, he's clever enough to know that the longer he's out in public with a human kidney on him, the great and greater chances of getting caught. His primary concern would be to get out of sight. It's important to view these only for what they are, the result of a pattern analysis of locations and how crime locations have related to other offender's anchor points (residences), and to then see what parts may fit best with regards to the specific series under investigation.

And now if we remove Stride from consideration:


And there we have it. Enjoy, I've certainly had fun. This is the first time I've done the full analysis for the JtR crimes so it's interesting to see the whole thing.

- Jeff

Hi jeff
interestingly i just saw a bit on geoprofiling to ID the ripper on the show what on earth? On the science channel. It ids nathan kaminsky of black lion yard as being smack dab in the middle of zone one. According to there analysis.

i beleive they only used the c5 victims.

it would be interesting to see what you come up with using c5 and match it to known suspects to see if any come up in zone one and or to see if black lion yard also comes up as in the middle of zone 1 according to your analysis.