Berner Street: No Plot, No Mystery

[JeffHamm]

Do to an administrative error, the values in the above post 585 are not, in fact, based entirely on Frank's measurements, but upon some sort of Frankenstein's Monster created from his and the left over corpse of some of my own. So, 8th time lucky as they say:

Eagle Walks to the Police Station (3.1 mph)
Time Event
1:10:30 Eagle Arrives at Leman Street Police Station
1:04:18 Eagle departs to Station/PC Lamb's Arrival
1:03:07 PC Lamb Alerted
1:01:55 Eagle departs to find PC Lamb/Fairclough runners return/Spooner's arrival
1:00:07 Fairclough Run Starts
12:58:17 Diemschutz Arrival

Eagle “Hurries” to the Police Station (4.11 mph – the speed equal to running ½ and walking 1/2)
Time Event
1:10:30 Eagle Arrives at Leman Street Police Station
1:05:50 Eagle departs to Station/PC Lamb's Arrival
1:04:38 PC Lamb Alerted
1:03:26 Eagle departs to find PC Lamb/Fairclough runners return/Spooner's arrival
1:01:38 Fairclough Run Starts
12:59:48 Diemschutz Arrival

Eagle Runs to the Police Station (6.1 mph)
Time Event
1:10:30 Eagle Arrives at Leman Street Police Station
1:07:21 Eagle departs to Station/PC Lamb's Arrival
1:06:09 PC Lamb Alerted
1:04:58 Eagle departs to find PC Lamb/Fairclough runners return/Spooner's arrival
1:03:09 Fairclough Run Starts
1:01:19 Diemschutz Arrival

With regards to Diemschutz saying he arrived at precisely 1:00, any of those times on the Leman Street Police Station clock are well within the range that one might expect given we're dealing with 2 different clocks given the two extreme differences are under 2 minutes of "clock desync".

The time at which PC Lamb gets alerted is, I think, in all cases a reasonable time for him to describe as "around 1:00 o'clock", given to my knowledge he did not have a watch on him to consult, and so therefore is estimating the time.

Finally, the range of true durations that someone reports as being 5 minutes is from 1m 38s to 15m 6s, with an average true duration of 3m 37s. The interval between Spooner's arrival and PC Lamb's arrival is well inside this range, at 2m 23s (or 2m 24s in the "hurries" condition; the 1 second difference due to rounding during the calculations), and is below the mean value, which places it towards the median (I don't have the median value though).

Also, due to a number of factors that influence our perception of temporal durations, there a lots of reasons to expect that the wait for the arrival of the police to seem longer than it actually was.

In short, by reconstructing time by locking to one clock that we have some reason to believe is a reliable time stamp of a known event (the 1:10 arrival of Eagle at the police station), and then estimating the time of other stated events based upon journey times (measured distances, average moving speeds, etc) and George's reconstruction of a critical event, we find that the times that emerge correspond well with the statements made by the witnesses. So well, that I think we can be confident that there is nothing suspicious about these details.

If you accept that, and given we know that Fanny did not see Deimschutz in his pony cart (but appears to have heard him pass), then we know that when it comes to placing Fanny in the timeline, she must be inside before Deimschutz enters Berner Street. I believe I found some information on Pony carts, and they tend to travel somewhere around 4 mph (so would require about 1m 2s to get to the gates). So we could work backwards from Deimschutz's arrival time to find the latest point at which Fanny goes inside, which would be 12:58:45 (based upon the Eagle "Hurries" version). We know, however, she does indicate she was inside for a while before hearing the Pony cart go by, so she seems to have gone inside before that. The goal now, of course, is to see if we can work out, if possible, when that point in time was.

- Jeff

[FrankO]

Finally, I would like to give a big Thanks and shout out to both Frank and George for correcting my mistakes with regards to the distances and the Deimschutz recreation. Also, a big thanks to Belloc, who PM'd me to alert me to the rather embarrassing error I initially had in the calculation of the hour value.

You're welcome, Jeff. I'm glad I could be of assistance.

[FrankO]

The time at which PC Lamb gets alerted is, I think, in all cases a reasonable time for him to describe as "around 1:00 o'clock", given to my knowledge he did not have a watch on him to consult, and so therefore is estimating the time.

Hi Jeff,

What we also see is that your calculations of Lamb's arrival in the yard go very well with Blackwell's timing, as indirectly referenced by Lamb himself when he stated: "Dr. Blackwell was the first doctor to arrive, and he did so in ten or twelve minutes after my arrival. I had no watch with me, and so I only guess the time."

If one, however, thinks that Lamb actually mistook Johnston for Blackwell, then Lamb would have arrived in the yard between 1:00 and 1:03 - on Blackwell's watch that is. So, in that case, Blackwell's watch and the clock at the police station were out of sync by a maximum of some 6 minutes (and a minimum of 1 minute).

All the best,
Frank

[Herlock Sholmes]

Excellent work on timings from Jeff and Frank.

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff,

What we also see is that your calculations of Lamb's arrival in the yard go very well with Blackwell's timing, as indirectly referenced by Lamb himself when he stated: "Dr. Blackwell was the first doctor to arrive, and he did so in ten or twelve minutes after my arrival. I had no watch with me, and so I only guess the time."

If one, however, thinks that Lamb actually mistook Johnston for Blackwell, then Lamb would have arrived in the yard between 1:00 and 1:03 - on Blackwell's watch that is. So, in that case, Blackwell's watch and the clock at the police station were out of sync by a maximum of some 6 minutes (and a minimum of 1 minute).

All the best,
Frank

Hi Frank,

Good point. I think Dr. Blackwell is another good "anchor point" for these sorts of calculations. The simulations I put together use his watch as the "anchor point", for lack of a better word. And yes, the estimated times are similar enough that the conclusion is that it doesn't matter which specific clock you use, the estimated times all "work". And to argue a lie, you have to show that the words do not "work".

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Excellent work on timings from Jeff and Frank.

Thanks Herlock. But George's contribution can't be overstated. His effort of providing us with something solid to work with is the sort of key new information that this case lacks. Personally, I don't think we'll identify JtR, but I do think we can at least work out what happened.

- Jeff

[FrankO]

Excellent work on timings from Jeff and Frank.

Thanks, Mike.

[Michael W Richards]

Hi Michael,

So, are you now saying Louis arrived after 1 o'clock? I always thought you were arguing that he arrived well before 1 o'clock. But above you say "And by using eyewitness statements, Louis did not arrive before 1.", so have you changed your mind on his arrival time then?


Also, in most accounts, Fanny says she was only on her doorstep for 10 minutes (time isn't really clear, but she goes out shortly after hearing PC Smith go by, or at least hears footsteps she presumes were those of a police officer on beat). That sort of puts her on her stoop for 10 minutes, spanning 12:45 type thing. There is one news report where she's saying "nearly the whole time", but that can't be the case as the only person she sees walk down the street is Goldstein (and a young couple at the corner), and as you say, there were quite a few others going about. I think it is safe to set the "nearly the whole time" statement aside as overstating things.

I am still planning on going through all the news reports for Fanny to try and create a clock diagram for her statements. Hopefully that will help shed some light on the probable time window she was on her doorstep.

- Jeff

Hi Jeff,

So Im clear, I am suggesting that Louis could not have arrived as late as 1am as he claimed, so I see the only reasonable answer as to what time he did arrive had to be when Fanny was not at her door during that last half hour. She says if someone had come from that yard before 1am she would have seen them, and she says that she saw Black Bag Man around 12:55-56 scurry past the gates after looking into the passageway on his way past. She says she went back into the house at around 1. My point on the "before" 1am is to illustrate that IF Louis had been arriving at 1am as he said then Fanny would have been at her door to see him steer his cart and horse up to the gates.

So, when is Fanny not at her door, and how frequent are the pops indoors? We dont know, but we do know that she did not see Louis, cart and horse arriving when she was at her door. Which for me is likely almost all of the last 10 minutes of that hour.

So Louis arrived earlier, not later, and wouldnt you know that we have three witnesses, Issac Kozebrodksi, (unsure of his given name at this moment)-Heschberg, and Mr Spooner suggest that they saw Louis and the body around 12:40. So, again as I see this, its likely Fanny was indoors at around that time.

She does hear a cart and horse pass by while indoors, and she hears bootsteps, but neither sounds are automatically designated as originating from the same sources she estimates they might have come from. She didnt "see" a policeman, nor did she "see" a cart and horse. But since we are on her senses, she also didnt "hear" anything on the street at the time Israel said he was there and saw activity. So.....she can hear bootsteps while inside, but she cant hear 3 mens bootsteps on cobbles and a woman exclaim out loud, and a shout from a surly man at someone? Very selective hearing? Not likely.

When it comes to Fanny, what she did see is greater in value than what she did not, but both perspectives are informative.

[Michael W Richards]

If one, however, thinks that Lamb actually mistook Johnston for Blackwell, then Lamb would have arrived in the yard between 1:00 and 1:03 - on Blackwell's watch that is. So, in that case, Blackwell's watch and the clock at the police station were out of sync by a maximum of some 6 minutes (and a minimum of 1 minute).

All the best,
Frank

He says "the first doctor" I saw, and the first medical man on the scene was indeed Johnson. Its not like Dr's wore identifying credentials on their lapels, they were guys in suits who attended physically to injured people. Johnson Im sure did just what a doctor would have done initially.

And coincidentally... Lamb does say he arrived around 1. Which must mean that Louis arrived earlier, ...earlier enough for the discovery, searching in vain, and then the finding of Lamb can ensure Lamb is at those gates at around 1am. Which is exactly what he said.

[Herlock Sholmes]

Thanks Herlock. But George's contribution can't be overstated. His effort of providing us with something solid to work with is the sort of key new information that this case lacks. Personally, I don't think we'll identify JtR, but I do think we can at least work out what happened.

- Jeff

Yes, apologies to George for not mentioning his contribution.

[Herlock Sholmes]

Hi Jeff,

So Im clear, I am suggesting that Louis could not have arrived as late as 1am as he claimed, so I see the only reasonable answer as to what time he did arrive had to be when Fanny was not at her door during that last half hour. She says if someone had come from that yard before 1am she would have seen them, and she says that she saw Black Bag Man around 12:55-56 scurry past the gates after looking into the passageway on his way past. She says she went back into the house at around 1. My point on the "before" 1am is to illustrate that IF Louis had been arriving at 1am as he said then Fanny would have been at her door to see him steer his cart and horse up to the gates.

So, when is Fanny not at her door, and how frequent are the pops indoors? We dont know, but we do know that she did not see Louis, cart and horse arriving when she was at her door. Which for me is likely almost all of the last 10 minutes of that hour.

So Louis arrived earlier, not later, and wouldnt you know that we have three witnesses, Issac Kozebrodksi, (unsure of his given name at this moment)-Heschberg, and Mr Spooner suggest that they saw Louis and the body around 12:40. So, again as I see this, its likely Fanny was indoors at around that time.

She does hear a cart and horse pass by while indoors, and she hears bootsteps, but neither sounds are automatically designated as originating from the same sources she estimates they might have come from. She didnt "see" a policeman, nor did she "see" a cart and horse. But since we are on her senses, she also didnt "hear" anything on the street at the time Israel said he was there and saw activity. So.....she can hear bootsteps while inside, but she cant hear 3 mens bootsteps on cobbles and a woman exclaim out loud, and a shout from a surly man at someone? Very selective hearing? Not likely.

When it comes to Fanny, what she did see is greater in value than what she did not, but both perspectives are informative.

We don’t know when she was last on her doorstep before she came onto her doorstep after hearing the footsteps.

We don’t know what time she came onto her doorstep after hearing the footsteps.

We don’t know how long she was on her doorstep for.

Great witness. And you use her to dismiss Schwartz and Diemschitz.

If Diemschitz returned earlier than she said why didn’t she see him?

She heard a cart at around 1.00. Clearly this was Diemschitz unless someone was passing with a mobile phone with a horse and cart on cobbles ringtone?

[FrankO]

He says "the first doctor" I saw, and the first medical man on the scene was indeed Johnson. Its not like Dr's wore identifying credentials on their lapels, they were guys in suits who attended physically to injured people. Johnson Im sure did just what a doctor would have done initially.

And coincidentally... Lamb does say he arrived around 1. Which must mean that Louis arrived earlier, ...earlier enough for the discovery, searching in vain, and then the finding of Lamb can ensure Lamb is at those gates at around 1am. Which is exactly what he said.

Hi Michael,

First off, I was just making an observation and have no problem with Lamb arriving in the yard between 1:00 and 1:03 on Blackwell's watch.

Secondly, Lamb stated something like: doctor Blackwell was the first doctor to arrive. He didn't say "the first medical man" to arrive, but "doctor" and he even named him: Blackwell. Then, Lamb also stated that inspector Pinhorn arrived directly/very shortly after the doctor. We also know that Eagle arrived at the police station at around 1:10 and to alert the inspector to the murder. If Pinhorn would have left immediately after hearing about it, then he would have arrived at the crime scene some 6, perhaps 7 minutes later at most. The time would then have been around 1:17 or maybe 1:18, which corresponds very well with what Lamb stated.

The best,
Frank

[Fiver]

She heard a cart at around 1.00. Clearly this was Diemschitz unless someone was passing with a mobile phone with a horse and cart on cobbles ringtone?

Exactly. Mortimer supports Diemschutz timing. The Jewish socialist conspiracy theory requires that Fanny Mortimer did not hear Diemshutz arrive and that Mortimer couldn't tell the difference between a cart pulling into Dutfield's yard and stopping and a cart driving down the road past her home and that Mortimer would make a time error that coincidentally matched Deimshutz' statement. It also requires that none of the plotters noticed this second cart drive by while they were plotting. And it requires this alleged second cart driver to not come forward and contradict the timing lie of the conspirators.

[GBinOz]

Hi Jeff,

Thank you for your kind remarks.

I notice that you are using 1:10:30 for Eagle's arrival at Leman St P.S.. I would think that in the light of lack of evidence to the contrary we would need to accept 1:10 as the recorded time of Eagle's report to the desk Sergeant, so allowing the 30 seconds for Eagle to enter the Station and explain the situation, wouldn't that make his arrival at the door as 1:09:30 ?

Best regards,
George

[GBinOz]

Hi Jeff,

What we also see is that your calculations of Lamb's arrival in the yard go very well with Blackwell's timing, as indirectly referenced by Lamb himself when he stated: "Dr. Blackwell was the first doctor to arrive, and he did so in ten or twelve minutes after my arrival. I had no watch with me, and so I only guess the time."

If one, however, thinks that Lamb actually mistook Johnston for Blackwell, then Lamb would have arrived in the yard between 1:00 and 1:03 - on Blackwell's watch that is. So, in that case, Blackwell's watch and the clock at the police station were out of sync by a maximum of some 6 minutes (and a minimum of 1 minute).

All the best,
Frank

Hi Frank,

The sequence that suggests to me that Lamb mistook Johnson for Blackwell is:

Mr. Edward Johnson: [Coroner] Did you undo the dress? - The dress was not undone when I came. I undid it to see if the chest was warm. The outer gates were closed shortly after I came.

Constable Henry Lamb: Dr. Blackwell was the first doctor to arrive; he came ten or twelve minutes after myself, but I had no watch with me.
[Coroner] Did any one of the crowd say whether the body had been touched before your arrival? - No. Dr. Blackwell examined the body and its surroundings. Dr. Phillips came ten minutes later. Inspector Pinhorn arrived directly after Dr. Blackwell. When I blew my whistle other constables came, and I had the entrance of the yard closed. This was while Dr. Blackwell was looking at the body. Before that the doors were wide open.

Mr. Frederick William Blackwell: Dr. Phillips came about twenty minutes to half an hour after my arrival. The double doors of the yard were closed when I arrived, so that the previous witness must have made a mistake on that point.

Lamb testified that he closed the gates after Blackwell arrived, but Blackwell testified specifically that Lamb was mistaken on this point, and Johnson corroborates that opinion by testifying that the gates were closed after he arrived. This would mean that Lamb testified that Johnson (mistaken for Blackwell) arrived 10-12 minutes after he did, which would coincide with Blackwell testifying that he arrived at 1:16, and Johnson testifying that he arrived 3-4 minutes before Blackwell. This would fit with Lamb's testimony of seeing Eagle at 1:00, or shortly before, but complicates the arrival of Pinhorn directly after Johnson (mistaken for Blackwell). It also creates conflict with Lamb's estimate of Phillips arriving 10 minutes after Johnson (mistaken for Blackwell) and Blackwell's estimate that Phillips arrived 20-30 minutes after he did, but of course that conflict would not be resolved by the 3-4 minute difference in arrival times of Johnson and Blackwell.

Best regards,
George