Lipski

[Joshua Rogan]

or mr Brown killed all three

Brilliant! If only he hadn't already handed himself in to the police by the time Stride was killed.

[Jon Guy]

Brilliant! If only he hadn't already handed himself in to the police by the time Stride was killed.

Obstacles like that don`t matter in Ripperology, JR


BROWN DUNNIT !!

[Abby Normal]

Brilliant! If only he hadn't already handed himself in to the police by the time Stride was killed.

Exactly my point. Then we know by the evidence this incident truly is only a coincidence, and has nothing to do with other possible "similar" incidents.

context.

[John G]

Much appreciated Josh, it was. A bit on the disorganized side lately..thanks for the help.

So Dr Phillips didn't opine that Chapman and Eddowes were murdered by different perpetrators. Pleased we've cleared that up.

[Batman]

Not sure again what you feel is logical, but 3 womens throats were cut that night, proving empirically that coincidences happen.

Why do you have to misrepresent what I said? I never said that coincidences don't happen.

Nor does it address my main points. My point is that in addition to accepting THOSE 'coincidences' in ADDITION you must also accept the coincidence that the killer of Stride walking towards Mitre Sq. will meet Eddowes coming out of the drunk tank because of the trajectories involved. Speed/distance/timing all are within the Goldilocks zone. Out of all the places and times this 'other' killer could have struck, he did it within that tiny zone.

Double the coincidence, double the low probability of being another hand.

As for evidence...

We have evidence of a disturbance. Look at the title of the thread.

LIPSKI.

We know from the casebook that the witness was taken seriously by the yard. That investigators spent a long time working with the witness. Not appearing at the inquest doesn't make all those facts vanish. There is a good reason why they didn't want him to appear. The idea we don't have his story or statement is false. There is plenty of information about Israel Schwartz in the files.

To claim that he had time to do what he wanted after being disturbed by Schwartz is stretching it. He shouted Lipski. He knew he was seen. You want him hanging around to carry out a mutilation after that happening.

[Sam Flynn]

Nor does it address my main points. My point is that in addition to accepting THOSE 'coincidences' in ADDITION you must also accept the coincidence that the killer of Stride walking towards Mitre Sq. will meet Eddowes coming out of the drunk tank because of the trajectories involved. Speed/distance/timing all are within the Goldilocks zone. Out of all the places and times this 'other' killer could have struck, he did it within that tiny zone.

Double the coincidence, double the low probability of being another hand.

It's more likely that they were independent killers, otherwise we'd have to multiply the probability of Stride's being killed by JTR by the probability that JTR just happened to be in the "Goldilocks Zone" at precisely the right time to meet and kill Eddowes.

[Batman]

It's more likely that they were independent killers, otherwise we'd have to multiply the probability of Stride's being killed by JTR by the probability that JTR just happened to be in the "Goldilocks Zone" at precisely the right time to meet and kill Eddowes.

That's the very opposite although you are right about multiplying probabilities.


There is a failed post office raid at Point A.
There is a successful post office raid at Point B.
Both occur on the same day within the same local area.

That is coincidence #1. Low probability event #1.

We learn that if one leaves Point A at the time of the crime and walks towards Point B, they will arrive at the same time the successful post office raid started.

That is coincidence #2. Low probability event #2.


The likelihood of both these low probability events being coincidence is extremely low (multiplication of probabilities). Therefore we should accept the higher probability that they are connected. Meaning it's the same bank robbers. Extrapolate to the murders and it means its the same killer.

That's how it works Sam.

[Sam Flynn]

That's the very opposite although you are right about multiplying probabilities.

There is a failed post office raid at Point A.
There is a successful post office raid at Point B.
Both occur on the same day within the same local area.

Why stipulate a "failed" raid at post office A, when Stride's was not a "failed" murder? Unless one sees it as an interrupted Ripper murder, which would be kind of a circular argument.

[Batman]

Why stipulate a "failed" raid at post office A, when Stride's was not a "failed" murder? Unless one sees it as an interrupted Ripper murder, which would be kind of a circular argument.

Let say both failed or both were successful at something. That doesn't change the probabilities. The events still occur with the same double coincidence. #1 x #2. Same result.

[Joshua Rogan]

JtR is a disorganized offender if we listen to the experts.

I recently saw a documentary in which an experienced homicide detective described JtR as an organised killer.

[Abby Normal]

I recently saw a documentary in which an experienced homicide detective described JtR as an organised killer.

I would definitely say organized. I don't think the original FBI profiler was taking into account that in 1888 serial killers didn't have cars.

[Batman]

Why would they think that he was organized? JtR is classic disorganized.

[Michael W Richards]

I believe that the manner in which he conducted the first 2 murders suggests someone that planned what to do and put himself in the position to make that happen. That, to me, seems like organized thinking. Plus, the very consistent methodology. Seeks out the same sort of target, likely subdues and cuts the same way..certainly the double cut is important. Targets the pelvis and abdomen for the mutilations.

I don't see that same step by step process with Kate, nor do I know why she was where she was.

[Harry D]

Most serial killers are opportunists, since they rarely have any prior relationship with their victim. It wasn't like Chapman or Nichols had a set routine that the killer would've been privy to that night. Nichols could've easily been crashed in the doss house if she hadn't pissed her doss money away and wasn't forced back onto the streets. We don't know if Eddowes or Stride were actively soliciting on the night of their deaths, but like many women of their class they both had a history of casual prostitution so that cannot be ruled out. At any rate, soliciting or not, it's incredibly simplistic to believe that a serial killer has to murder under the exact same conditions each and every time.

As for the double event, the MO, the close proximity and timing of the two murders would suggest that they were carried out by the same killer. There was no clear suspect in Stride's case. It was a seemingly motiveless crime, as were all of the other Ripper murders. Where's the evidence that Michael Kidney or one of the club members had anything to do with Stride's murder?

[Abby Normal]

Why would they think that he was organized? JtR is classic disorganized.

Hi Batman
I believe the early profilers categorized him as either disorganized or mixed.
The main reason some went with disorganized traits is that the bodies were left in the open with no attempt to hide. and that's true if it happened like that today, because today we have cars-mobile bolt holes that serial killers use to pick up prostitutes and kill and dump them. The ripper didn't have that option. I don't think they really took the time frame into account. Not only that, but I would venture the avg casebook poster has more knowledge of the case than those FBI profilers.

the other marks of disorganized is random attacks, using a murder weapon found at the scene-like a rock, metal pipe etc or one of the victims own item of clothes to strangle them, and inadvertently leaving clues.

The riper showed organized traits such as bringing his own weapon, not leaving clues, rusing victims to get them where he wanted them, eluding capture-many times in the nick of time,planning when he would carry out attacks. Not to mention-he never got caught!