Lipski

[Harry D]

Five women were killed, all had their throats cut, four were mutilated, three had internal organs removed. All of them were killed in the same district, over a short period of time. If that doesn't constitute a pattern, I'm not sure what does.

[John G]

I didn't say Phillips said Annies Killer was a medical professional John, and I really detest when posters inaccurately synopsize what is being said... I said that after Annies murder and based on Phillips statements....some of which I posted,...the authorities chose to look for medically trained suspects in September. They did not continue that pattern after the Double Event, because clearly those kills did not fit that profile. Instead, like so many of our treasured serial killer advocates do, they just assumed that the lesser skilled subsequent kills and mutilations were poorly executed but explainable....like Lizs killer was interrupted, Kates killer was in too dark an environment and was acting too hastily, or Marys killer took a long time taking her apart because he was indoors. They forget, or ignore, that Liz Strides murder shows no evidence at all of being interrupted, that the lack of skill evident on Kate might just be a lack of skills...which contrasts Annies killer,... or that Marys murder while in bed had nothing at all to do with a killer who killed and mutilated middle aged women while they actively solicited outdoors..

Whatever Trevors modern day experts believe they see in notes taken is of interest to them I'm sure, but as I said earlier, Phillips saw 4 Canonicals in the morgue...he inspected the wounds with his eyes and hands, not with his aptitude for interpreting more than century old doctors notes. He didn't see the skills with Liz, and when asked later if he thought Kate should be included in the list that contemporary investigators created for kills they wanted to attribute to a single maniac, he stated he didn't see that Kates wounds were the same as the earlier 2 women he examined.

Its simply the reality that matters to me, fictional ideas about why the subsequent murders didn't look anything like the first 2 are entertaining but hardly convincing.

I'm sorry to have to press you on this, Michael, but what is the source for Dr Phillips' supposedly asserting that he didn't think Eddowes' wounds were similar to Chapman's. You refer to "the earlier 2 women he examined". When did he examine Nichols? Source please. When did Dr Phillips say that he believed Eddowes' perpetrator to be less skilled than Chapman's? Source please.

[Michael W Richards]

I'm sorry to have to press you on this, Michael, but what is the source for Dr Phillips' supposedly asserting that he didn't think Eddowes' wounds were similar to Chapman's. You refer to "the earlier 2 women he examined". When did he examine Nichols? Source please. When did Dr Phillips say that he believed Eddowes' perpetrator to be less skilled than Chapman's? Source please.

Sorry John, I'm doing this mostly from work these days and don't have access to my own categorized database. Ill try to get some time to do that this weekend. It was a press report with an interview with Phillips, if I recall, sometime after Alices murder, one which he discounted based on his impression her murder was probably sexually motivated. I know that he had no formal role with Nichols, but If I recall correctly he offered his perspective on whether hers and Annies murder were by the same hand.

Hi comments on the skill shown with Kate were made that Fall I believe.

Again, Ill try to post the sources once I get at the files.

[Joshua Rogan]

Is this the article you were thinking of Michael?

Evening News 1st Oct

"THE TWO MURDERS NOT BY THE SAME HAND

The idea has got abroad that in some way it is sought to advance medical science by human vivisection, but however likely or unlikely the theory may be, it must not too readily be assumed that the two murders of yesterday morning had the same object. Dr. Phillips who was called to Berner-street shortly after the discovery of the woman's body, gives (so says Dr. Gordon, who has made a post-mortem examination of the other body) it as his opinion that the two murders were not committed by the same man. Upon this point Dr. Phillips is an authority. He it was who examined Annie Chapman and discovered the purpose of the murder. Since that he has been to Newcastle to investigate the brutal murder there, and he is qualified in some measure to speak of the manner of the assassin's workmanship."

[Batman]

Double the coincidence, double the low probability

Not only do non-canonical views of Stride being the victim of a different killer require that you accept it was just a coincidental violent homicide that night, but that it is also a coincidence that if you leave the site of Stride's murder at the time Stride died and walk at a normal pace towards Mitre Square you will inevitably meet Eddowes on the same trajectory coming out of the drunk tank. It isn't just a matter of *might* see her, if you go that way, time/speed, you will be in that location, within looking distance of people around you and Eddowes *MUST* be one of them because we know what time she left the drunk tank and which way she headed.

That's two big coincidences you need to accept in believing them unrelated.

The probability is virtually nil of them uncorrelated because of timing and trajectories.

[Joshua Rogan]

Hi Batman, I would say yes and no. Whilst Eddowes ultimately ended up in Mitre Square, the only thing we know for sure about her route is that she turned left along Bishopsgate St after leaving the police station. Presuming she then turned left again and headed towards Aldgate, then she could easily have met someone who left Berner Street at roughly the same time. But unless both parties walked at an unfeasibly slow pace, that leaves about 20 minutes unaccounted for until they were seen at Church Passage. Did they both take less direct routes or meet somewhere else? Did it take that long to convince her to accompany him to the square? Did they get a drink somewhere? Or some other explanation?

[Batman]

Can you please show me your calculations/estimates.

Every walking pace estimate I have seen from the time and location of Strides death walking (not running) at a normal pace towards the direction of Mitre Sq. area ends up with a person being within minutes of crossing paths with Eddowes in that area.

http://forum.casebook.org/showthread.php?t=8755&highlight=trajectory

The investigators at the time understood this. I don't see how one can select the much lower probability that they are different murderers.

Stride's ETD 12:45-1:00am

Eddowes ETD 1:42am - 1:45 am

45 minutes max between them.

It's 11-15 minutes between Dutfield Yard and Mitre Square give or take a few minutes depending on which route you take. If you avoid commercial rd its the longer one.

Eddowes was released from Bishopsgate Police Station at 1am. From here to Mitre Square area is about 8 minutes.

Eddowes is in Mitre square by 1:34am talking to her murderer according to Lawende et al.

Eddowes, who is out of the drunk tank, if walking normally, could make Mitre Square by 1:08 at the least. It is more likely for someone who has recently been incapacitated from drink to take a little longer. Here we are talking a matter of a few minutes.

Stride's killer, if walking WESTwards, could make Mitre Square by 1:11am to 1:15am. The reason for him going here is due to geoprofiling and moving in a radius around where he lives so as not to be discovered near the murder sites.

If Stride's killer walked WEST there is a very good chance/certainty he would see Eddowes. She doesn't need to see him. He is the one doing the looking.

The convergence here between both arriving at the square or nearby is a matter of minutes. Its a Goldilocks zone. Not too short. Not too long, within parameters because at 1:34am she is seen talking to her murderer and well into a conversation it seems with her hand on his chest. There would likely have been a conversation talking place between the killer and Eddowes from 1:11am to 1:15am (killer arrival) to before 1:34am (witnesses) for the killer to meet her.

Again a matter of minutes.

[John G]

Mitre Square is about half a mile from Berner Street: my average walking speed is about 3.6 miles per hour so I could cover this distance in about 9-10 minutes. Therefore, if we speculate the killer left Berner at 1:00pm I would estimate he could have arrived at Mitre Square around 1:10-1:15.

If Eddowes was killed by JtR I think he would have spent very little time talking to her before deciding to strike. I mean, why would he need to? I certainly don't think he would have been in her company for 15-20
minutes before striking.

[Sam Flynn]

Eddowes, who is out of the drunk tank, if walking normally, could make Mitre Square by 1:08 at the least. ...
Stride's killer, if walking WESTwards, could make Mitre Square by 1:11am ...

There's one or two "coulds" there, Batman, and there's the rub. One of the aspects that bugs me about the Double Event is that the victim and killer's trajectories have to be more-or-less in alignment, as do their broad timings. He has little time to conduct a recce, pick his target, do any "chatting up" (or whatever), and has to "strike it lucky" with probably the first woman he encounters as he arrives in the City. I'm not saying it's impossible, it's just that it seems a bit too "magical" somehow.

This is an issue I have with some aspects of the JTR mythos, not just the Eddowes murder. It's all too easy to assume that Jack could pick a victim and make a successful strike whenever he fancied it, but this is highly unlikely to have been the case in reality.

[John G]

There's one or two "coulds" there, Batman, and there's the rub. One of the aspects that bugs me about the Double Event is that the victim and killer's trajectories have to be more-or-less in alignment, as do their broad timings. He has little time to conduct a recce, pick his target, do any "chatting up" (or whatever), and has to "strike it lucky" with probably the first woman he encounters as he arrives in the City. I'm not saying it's impossible, it's just that it seems a bit too "magical" somehow.

This is an issue I have with some aspects of the JTR mythos, not just the Eddowes murder. It's all too easy to assume that Jack could pick a victim and make a successful strike whenever he fancied it, but this is highly unlikely to have been the case in reality.

But isn't that pretty much what the Yorkshire Ripper did? Despite the fact that he had to contend with a far more technically advanced police force? In fact, surely all JtR had to do was seek out vulnerable women- such as Nichols and Eddowes, who were intoxicated, and Chapman, who'd been ill-who were out alone, either late at night or in the early hours of the morning. And I'm willing to bet that there was no shortage of potential victims in 1888 Whitechapel. Personally, I think it was all too easy.

[c.d.]

Hello Sam,

But what if Kate's killer had met her earlier that evening and maybe had been the one to buy her drinks? They tentatively arrange to meet later or Kate goes back into that general area hoping to find him again. You have now removed the element of chance.

c.d.

[Harry D]

There's one or two "coulds" there, Batman, and there's the rub. One of the aspects that bugs me about the Double Event is that the victim and killer's trajectories have to be more-or-less in alignment, as do their broad timings.

Isn't that the case with any opportunistic killer?

[Batman]

There's one or two "coulds" there, Batman, and there's the rub. One of the aspects that bugs me about the Double Event is that the victim and killer's trajectories have to be more-or-less in alignment, as do their broad timings.

JtR is a disorganized offender if we listen to the experts. This means his choices of prostitutes is random. As stated elsewhere, many other serial killers kill prostitutes at random like this. This means planning is minimal. Could be any location.

What you are seeing is the outcome of a random event.

If we assumed Killer leaves Stride at her time of death he can randomly go anywhere, any direction. If he chooses to go Westwards (as no crimes had been commited that direction yet) while walking he WILL eventually meet Eddowes by chance.

Killer leaves point A (Strides scene of death) and goes towards point C at a time, speed and distance. Victim leaves point B (drunk tank) and goes towards point C at a time, speed and distance. They are random movements, neither is correlated, but both will be at point C at the same time because of the trajectories involved. The disorganized offender takes advantage at point C.

There is nothing magical about it. What it does is show that a person walking from the scenes of Strides murder in the direction of Mitre square will meet a random person called Eddowes on her way out of the drunk tank.

This is what the police knew back then. That by walking from both crime scenes they realized that the same killer had done just that. Walked between crime scenes.

To believe otherwise means that Eddowes killer just happened to coincidental kill Eddowes at the same time and location that an escaping Stride killer going in his direction could also have done. <-- therein lies the rub for people who believe the killings are not connected. The connection of walking distance and time is there.

[Sam Flynn]

But what if Kate's killer had met her earlier that evening and maybe had been the one to buy her drinks? They tentatively arrange to meet later or Kate goes back into that general area hoping to find him again. You have now removed the element of chance.

That's another "could", I'm afraid, CD. Kate didn't know that she'd end up in the cells, or that she'd have been released at the appropriate time. Too many coincidences.

[Sam Flynn]

JtR is a disorganized offender if we listen to the experts. This means his choices of prostitutes is random.

But he can't succeed every time - no serial killer has managed that, not even the "best" of them. To suppose that Jack arrives in the City at approximately the right time, and "scores" with practically the first woman he meets, is stretching it a bit. I suspect he was prowling the western boundary of his territory for quite some time, with potential victims evading his clutches for various reasons, long before Eddowes hove into view.