How Long Did the BS Man-Liz Encounter Take?

[Fisherman]

C.d. speaks of bladders. Sam speaks of mathematical probabilities. Let´s mix the two together, leaving aside that I have never taken any specific interest in American bladders. In the end, I guess it may prove me totally wrong, but I´ll take that chance willingly.

Let´s say that there were thirty men in that club. Let´s assume that they consumed some beer, making them more prone to take their bladders for a walk every now and then. Let´s theorize the clubmen spent about five hours each in the club that night. Let´s assume they took three leaks each during the night.
That means that 90 bladders (well...) were given an excursion into the yard that night. Let´s say that the period it took to scare the Ripper into interrupting his handiwork was the period when they shoved the door open. Let´s allow for three seconds as the time it took.
If we accept this, we are left with 90x3 seconds, a total of 270 seconds.
Five hours in total, that amounts to (5x60)x60 = 18 000 seconds. That allows for a one and a half per cent chance that a bladder - american or not - was taken for a walk in the yard at that exact time. Meaning that we are left with a ninety-eight and a half per cent chance that no-one was taking a leak at the time.

Now, combine this with Sams statistics on how big the chance was that Jack would stray onto Berner Street at the exact moment asked for by those who see Stride as a Ripper victim, and we are left with astronomical odds, c.d!

Statistically, c.d, I think we are left with, shall we say, extremely slim possibilities that the Jack-got-there-just-in-time-but-was-interrupted- in-that-split-second-believe-you-me-scenario holds a single drop of water - let alone any fluid coming from an american bladder...

The best, c.d!
Fisherman

[Sam Flynn]

Had [the other victims been] in another geographical location that night they might have escaped being a victim. Unluckily, they too were in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I don't think anyone would argue much with that, CD!

[c.d.]

Well done, Fisherman. What are the odds that someone would spend time doing calculations like that? So therefore I won't ask you to spend any more time calculationg the feasibility of someone coming out for a smoke or just to get a breath of fresh air.

But one more point about bladders (American or English) and I tend to speak from personal experience. When I leave work, I make it a point to avail myself of the facilities if you get my drift. It would seem from observation, that my fellow employees do the same. One for the road so to speak. I also do the same before leaving home. You will also see the same behavior at large sporting events, bars etc. Now if I am correct, the murder most likely occurred as the meeting was winding down or was it over (I can't recall)? That is when most of the people there would start to contemplate the long walk home and put their attention on more practical matters if I may put it delicately. I think that would have to be factored into your calculations.

As for the odds of Liz encountering Jack, what were the odds of the other victims encountering Jack when there were so many other prostitutes on the street that night as well?

c.d.

[Fisherman]

God forbid, Sam!

Fisherman

[c.d.]

I don't think anyone would argue much with that, CD!

Oh, you'd be surprised, Sam.

c.d.

[Fisherman]

C.d. writes:

"one more point about bladders (American or English)"

Their both enigmas to me, c.d - I have a Swedish specimen.

On your point of a concentration of bladders being emptied en masse as a grand finale of an evening on the town, I think a comparison with a football game could do the trick; afterwards all the guys leave the stadium and take a mutual leak. In our case that means that the last thirty leaks may be molded into one single mass leak, taking the statistical chance of Jack barging in at the wrong/right moment down to a measly one per cent!

Then again, if we are to leave our bladders out of this, along with mathematics and statistics, why not just settle for the fact that no matter how much of a laugh I can gain from using statistics, there always is the chance that it was Jack and that he was interrupted. Likewise, no matter how many times you assure me that all killings that occur in a district where a serial killer is on the loose must have been carried out by that very killer, I can always point to statistics that make such a notion laughable. And then we can merrily go around and around ...

On secont thoughts, no - it´s a waste of time, is it not?

All the best, c.d. My bladder sends it´s regards to yours!

Fisherman

[Sam Flynn]

As for the odds of Liz encountering Jack, what were the odds of the other victims encountering Jack when there were so many other prostitutes on the street that night as well?

Best not go down that avenue here, CD - too complex, and too many unknowns. We'd take forever working out - and arguing about! - which variables should or should not be included.

In contrast, the Dutfield's Yard events are comparatively circumscribed (no puns about the IWEC clientèle, please!) in terms of their location, and can be timeboxed reasonably well. At least, well enough to give a rough idea of what we're up against in terms of the "two assailant" scenario.

[c.d.]

Hi Sam,

Are you able to answer the question of what the distance was from the club to the spot where Liz's body was found? Do we know if there was more than one exit into the yard from the club? Also, do we know the location of the privy? Thanks in advance.

c.d.

[perrymason]

Hi Sam,

Are you able to answer the question of what the distance was from the club to the spot where Liz's body was found? Do we know if there was more than one exit into the yard from the club? Also, do we know the location of the privy? Thanks in advance.

c.d.

Hi cd,

It seems old pal that you are desperate to find some way to introduce Liz and Jack...isnt this 3 Stride threads youve started in just the past week or so?

Liz was found close to the wall of the International Club, in Dutfields Yard, less than I would guess 15-20 feet from the side entrance to the Club, the only entrance to the club in Dutfields Yard. The main entrance was off Berner St. Which means that Eagle must have walked right past the spot where BSM encounters Liz,... Eagle at 12:40am, BSM at 12:45am. I believe the privy was at the back of the yard, near the fence, and the office of Arbeter Fraint. There were cottages on the opposite side of the yard, and unused stables at the back of the yard. The light shone out from the second floor window beyond the shadows where Liz was and lit the cottages. Liz was probably out of view from the street when lying there, near the yard gate that swung in towards the Club wall.

Your thread question is interesting, but it cannot be answered....despite your suggestion that we "assume" he left just after the altercation . The witnessed altercation likely took no more than 1 minute, perhaps 2...during which time both Schwartz, and Pipeman, the only other two people seen by anyone that were even close to the gates, left the scene. No-one else is reported to have entered that scene...(street in front of gates).... until Fanny Mortimer was at her door off and on from 12:46ish until approx a few minutes to one, when she sees Goldstein walk past the gates, at approx 12:55. He apparently glances in towards the club, but doesnt see anything happening in the yard, likely because Liz is already dying just behind the gate on the ground.

BSM acosts Liz, tries to pull her into the street, she resists and falls... with an exclamation. BSM attends Liz, and when he sees Schwartz, he yells something like "Lipski" at him, a gentile insult towards Jews since the Lispki murder the year before. The proximity to Batty Street makes the guess of an insult viable. Now its 12:46am......and ONLY Liz and BSM are known to be anywhere near the gates or the yard. And its quite possible based on the choice of insult, BSM is NOT Jewish. Pipeman had reddish whiskers....which to me makes him likely Gentile as well. Schwartz is the only Jew on the street in front of the yard, and there are none in the yard by witness accounts. You might want to think on the ethnic composition here as well.

The yard was empty at 12:40am, and Liz and BSM meet in front of the gates at 12:45am, and Schwartz, or Fanny Mortimer, mentions no-one else seen during his and Pipemans departure, until Fanny sees Goldstein around 12:55am, and Goldstein sees nothing. Meaning that Liz is likely already in the place she dies....out of view.

The more we go through this, you have to see that your faith in this being a Ripper murder relies almost exclusively on BSM being Jack. The only alternative is a man entering the yard unseen and not heard after Eagles pass through and before Liz is standing in front of the gates. Now lets add that the cottagers were awake, due to the singing. And lets add that the side door to the Club was slightly ajar, and led into the kitchen where Mrs Diemshutz was.

If Schwartz told a version of the truth, and Fanny as well, being the only two witnesses of note from 12:45am on...then if you want Jack as the killer, you better figure out why BSM as Jack would enter a scene like he did, yell at a witness, and then only kill Liz...likely before Goldsteins pass.

It was only he and Liz cd...and we have no idea exactly how long he might have stayed with Liz after the altercation, ...only that he left sometime before 1am, and no-one saw him leave. But my guess is a man who grabs a woman and starts to take her somewhere against her will, causing her to fall and yelp, then yells at a witness watching, doesnt then just help her to her feet, help her dust off, tip his hat and wish her a fine evening. We know Liz is out of sight before she is killed, and no-one is seen outside the gates, so LOGICALLY, she and BSM might very well have moved in the yard to "discuss" her attitude towards him. Why enter the yard? Because he was just seen acosting a woman by a passer-by...discretion and privacy.....because, as we know based on witnesses, the bloomin yard was empty... for the umpteenth time.

Best regards.

[Sam Flynn]

I've not seen any detailed plans of Dutfield's Yard that one could use to gauge the distance from any side-doors or privies, CD.

[perrymason]

I've not seen any detailed plans of Dutfield's Yard that one could use to gauge the distance from any side-doors or privies, CD.

Perhaps not in metric units Sam, but sketches of the overall scheme is available to use as guidelines for estimates. What cd is trying to find out is if Jack could have hid in that yard, and acted after BSM left. There are only the cottages...with some awake residents, ...the side door to the Club...which leads to Mrs Diemshutz in this case...the stables, at the rear of the yard, the offices of Arbeter Fraint...rear of the yard, or the privy...rear of the yard. Then there is a very high fence.

To pass from the rear of the yard, to the place just behind the gate door, would entail slinking along the wall, past the slightly open door, and then on towards the front of the yard and the gates....to avoid the second floor light fron the window the singing is heard through. All the while the cottages would be directly opposite....with some folks awake.

Its either his resistance to accepting BSM as Jack....which I heartily agree with....or the willingness to overlook the obvious potential answers for a Ripperesque one... without any supporting evidence save some opinions.

This isnt about feet and inches,...its about creating a story from thin air and seeing if it is possible. Hey...Its possible Victoria Regina killed Liz, unless she had an alibi...but is it probable or more importantly, provable?

All this with good intentions cd and Sam....youll have to trust me on that.

Best regards friends.

[perrymason]

This question mirrors in so many ways, Blotchy Face and Mary. How long did Blotchy Face stay in Mary's room? When did he leave?

We dont know, for either of those suspects.

Before the murder took place? We dont know.

Both are the last men seen with a woman who soon after will die. As such, both men must be considered to this day as leading suspects in the deaths of the women involved. Without any accepted evidence to the contrary....thats it.

With Ms C5, I will grant that there are many more considerations. Based on the mutilations done post mortem, and other factors.

Best regards all.

[Sam Flynn]

I've little doubt that it was a comparatively compact yard, Mike, and the "guesstimated" dimensions you posted earlier don't strike me as being too far wrong.

[perrymason]

Im sorry if I come off as harsh when it comes to this subject, and the one I mentioned. Perhaps I invest a little too much emotionally in these issues...if so, I apologise. I wouldnt argue like this though if I didnt believe it would be a helpful turn, I truly believe we do need to re-assess Liz, and perhaps others, as non, or viable, Ripper victims. Perhaps Martha might need a closer look, for example.

Im not trying to lessen the JtR body count....Im trying to make sense out of what we do have.

I respect your opinion Sam, and cd, and all who post here, please dont mistake my zeal for a subject as direspect. Far from it.

Best regards and ciao for now.

[Fisherman]

C.d. asks:
"Are you able to answer the question of what the distance was from the club to the spot where Liz's body was found? "

As usual, c.d., we have differing witnesses saying different things. But we can get a fair picture of it anyway, I believe.
She was lying on her left side, phoetal position, legs drawn up, very close to the clubhouse wall, her feet almost touching the wall and her face some six inches away from it.
As for the distance to the club door and the gates, we have William Wess stating that it was eighteen feet from the club door to the gates. And then we have Eagle saying that her feet, that were the part of her closest to the gates, were some 6-7 feet away from the gateway. Strangely, we have Lamb telling us that those feet were about three yards distanced from the same gateway, but Eagles estimation is the more probable one since not only he, but also other witnesses tell us that she was lying close to the gate. Spooner says that she was "just inside the gate", and Diemschitz explains that her blood had run from the throat up the yard, and that when he returned into the yard after having alerted the others, he could see the blood before he reached the body.

The best, c.d!

Fisherman