How Long Did the BS Man-Liz Encounter Take?

[c.d.]

Well done, Fisherman. What are the odds that someone would spend time doing calculations like that? So therefore I won't ask you to spend any more time calculationg the feasibility of someone coming out for a smoke or just to get a breath of fresh air.

But one more point about bladders (American or English) and I tend to speak from personal experience. When I leave work, I make it a point to avail myself of the facilities if you get my drift. It would seem from observation, that my fellow employees do the same. One for the road so to speak. I also do the same before leaving home. You will also see the same behavior at large sporting events, bars etc. Now if I am correct, the murder most likely occurred as the meeting was winding down or was it over (I can't recall)? That is when most of the people there would start to contemplate the long walk home and put their attention on more practical matters if I may put it delicately. I think that would have to be factored into your calculations.

As for the odds of Liz encountering Jack, what were the odds of the other victims encountering Jack when there were so many other prostitutes on the street that night as well?

c.d.

[Sam Flynn]

Had [the other victims been] in another geographical location that night they might have escaped being a victim. Unluckily, they too were in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I don't think anyone would argue much with that, CD!

[Fisherman]

C.d. speaks of bladders. Sam speaks of mathematical probabilities. Letīs mix the two together, leaving aside that I have never taken any specific interest in American bladders. In the end, I guess it may prove me totally wrong, but Iīll take that chance willingly.

Letīs say that there were thirty men in that club. Letīs assume that they consumed some beer, making them more prone to take their bladders for a walk every now and then. Letīs theorize the clubmen spent about five hours each in the club that night. Letīs assume they took three leaks each during the night.
That means that 90 bladders (well...) were given an excursion into the yard that night. Letīs say that the period it took to scare the Ripper into interrupting his handiwork was the period when they shoved the door open. Letīs allow for three seconds as the time it took.
If we accept this, we are left with 90x3 seconds, a total of 270 seconds.
Five hours in total, that amounts to (5x60)x60 = 18 000 seconds. That allows for a one and a half per cent chance that a bladder - american or not - was taken for a walk in the yard at that exact time. Meaning that we are left with a ninety-eight and a half per cent chance that no-one was taking a leak at the time.

Now, combine this with Sams statistics on how big the chance was that Jack would stray onto Berner Street at the exact moment asked for by those who see Stride as a Ripper victim, and we are left with astronomical odds, c.d!

Statistically, c.d, I think we are left with, shall we say, extremely slim possibilities that the Jack-got-there-just-in-time-but-was-interrupted- in-that-split-second-believe-you-me-scenario holds a single drop of water - let alone any fluid coming from an american bladder...

The best, c.d!
Fisherman

[c.d.]

Hi Sam,

With regard to the other victims, are we to assume that they had no interaction with anyone else prior to meeting Jack? Had they chosen to ply their trade in another geographical location that night they might have escaped being a victim. Unluckily, they too were in the wrong place at the wrong time.

c.d.

[Sam Flynn]

Hi Caz,

Oh Sam, do you seriously think it's so unlikely that a man out looking for suitably vulnerable lone women on the streets after midnight would ever see one having a brief altercation with some passing lout that flares up and blows its course?

Let's say that there were 5 hours after midnight during which vulnerable women might have been on a sufficiently deserted street for Jack to have struck - that's 300 minutes, during which let's say Liz was left alone for 3 minutes after BS had roughed her up and cleared the scene. Assuming she stayed there, the odds of Jack just happening by would have been roughly 100:1, which is nothing, I'll grant you. However, when you multiply that by the huge number of possible thoroughfares in East London down which Jack might have sauntered circa 12:40 PM, it wouldn't be overstating the case to say that she was exceptionally unlucky to have met him of all people, so soon after her tussle with the first assailant.

If, like Bowman, she'd been arguing with this man for over 1― hours, then the chances of another weirdo wandering by and homing in on her would have increased, of course - but she wasn't there for anything like that length of time, and neither did her row last anywhere near as long.

[c.d.]

Iīm with Sam here: it is very, very strange that the good olīinterruption scenario has survived through the years. To me, that is a certainty that I can offer, should you still be on the prowl for such things, Caz!

The best,
Fisherman

Hi Fisherman,

I can't speak for English bladders only American ones. Now it may be that the two differ significantly or that evoultion has weakened bladders since 1888 for some unknown reason. But here in the good old U.S. of A., if I knew there was a roomfull of men and that these men had been in the room for several hours, I would expect that at least one of those men would have ventured outside for a pit stop. In fact, I would be pretty much willing to bet the farm on it. But again, I am only speaking of American bladders.

c.d.

[c.d.]

Does anyone know the distance between the club and where Liz's body was found?

c.d.

[Fisherman]

Caz writes:

"The most implausible ones for me are those which force some unknown man into becoming a throat-cutting assassin for one night only, when we all know very well that Jack was in the area, tooled up and ready to go, and capable of doing this one with his eyes shut."

How many unknown men do you think turn into killers in the span of, say, a year in London? In Britain? In Europe?
And what creature do you think is the rarer one, Caz; the man who for some reason turns into a single-strike killer, or a mutilating serial killer?
And why is it so hard to remember the fact that Stride was one of THREE London women who had their throats cut that night, the third woman having her throat slit by such a figure that you claim is EXTREMELY unlikely to appear: a single-strike killer, slitting a womans throat?

Iīm with Sam here: it is very, very strange that the good olīinterruption scenario has survived through the years. To me, that is a certainty that I can offer, should you still be on the prowl for such things, Caz!

The best,
Fisherman

[c.d.]

So simple c.d, and so NOT far-fetched, contrived or unlikely.

I don't know how anything like this could be ruled out.

But no doubt someone will be along soon to try their best.

Love,

Caz
X

Along with death and taxes, I think we can pretty much count on it.

c.d.

[caz]

...an opportunistic voyeur just happening to be in the immediate vicinity, whilst a brief altercation flared up and blew its course.

Oh Sam, do you seriously think it's so unlikely that a man out looking for suitably vulnerable lone women on the streets after midnight would ever see one having a brief altercation with some passing lout that flares up and blows its course? If Schwartz and Pipe Man just happened to see this one, why not Jack? There is not even any evidence that Liz was hurt during her alleged altercation with BS. An everyday occurrence, I'd have thought, and an occupational hazard for any woman loitering by a club entrance.

They keep you very sheltered in Wales, don't they?

Love,

Caz
X

[caz]

So simple c.d, and so NOT far-fetched, contrived or unlikely.

I don't know how anything like this could be ruled out.

But no doubt someone will be along soon to try their best.

Love,

Caz
X

[Sam Flynn]

I really don't see why it would be a very contrived or unlikely series of events.

You might have said the same about the recent Sally Anne Bowman case in South Croydon, where she sat rowing with her ex in his car for an hour before getting out and then being attacked with a knife and killed before she could walk the few yards to her front door.

A good point, Caz - although for the comparison to be completely apt, the row between Sally-Anne and her boyfriend should have been very brief, somewhat physical and reported by at least one witness, but I don't think either of these conditions applied. As it was, the prolonged nature of the debate in the stationary vehicle would have allowed more time for her future killer to witness what was going on, and even to get more excited by the wait. This stands in stark contrast to the brief, blitz argument Stride had had with her aggressor - such a timespan doesn't readily support the scenario of an opportunistic voyeur just happening to be in the immediate vicinity, whilst a brief altercation flared up and blew its course.

[c.d.]

As for possible interruptions, what about someone coming out of the club to smoke a cigarette? That would take about five minutes more or less would it not? Also, is it unrealistic to think that someone might have come outside to use the privy? What about two people leaving the club at the same time? Would it be so farfetched if they stopped to talk -- "Are you going to be at the meeting next week?" "I'm not sure yet. Who is going to be speaking?... and so on. A conversation that could easily run into a few minutes. So I have no problem with Jack ducking into the shadows to see how these things played out and then giving it up as a bad business and deciding to look for another victim somewhere else.

c.d.

[caz]

Hi Sam,

I really don't see why it would be a very contrived or unlikely series of events.

You might have said the same about the recent Sally Anne Bowman case in South Croydon, where she sat rowing with her ex in his car for an hour before getting out and then being attacked with a knife and killed before she could walk the few yards to her front door. Her ex was only cleared of involvement by the DNA tests that proved she was murdered by a serial sex offender who was a complete stranger to her and from outside the area, but happened to have lived in the same road at one time. Interestingly, after he killed her he moved away from the body to wait in the darkness in case anyone in the houses had heard anything and might come to investigate. When nobody did and all was quiet he returned to mutilate her and take her phone as a trophy.

I'm sure many unfortunates like Liz would have put up with a fair bit of abusive behaviour from male passers-by before feeling the need to abandon the spot they had chosen to occupy, presumably not just to enjoy the view and the fresh air. Besides, if the argument is that lightning doesn't strike twice in the same place, she could have felt safer staying put if BS had quickly lost interest and sodded off to annoy someone else.

I also think it's a wee bit unrealistic to have the likes of Liz asking someone in the club for a clothes brush and not expecting to be given the brush off. Even if she wasn't actively soliciting at the time, one could have been forgiven for assuming she wasn't out there alone in the dark waiting for Sunday morning church.

Moreover, she would not have knocked up someone inside the club if Jack arrived on the scene bearing cachous and sympathy while she was still pulling herself together, and possibly still swearing at the disappearing figure of BS. The more time one claims Jack would have had to mutilate Liz, between the last witness departing and the next one appearing to find her dead, the more reasons could have been presented to him for not doing so.

We don't know how long he may have needed to keep her sweet before he could safely distract her and whip out his weapon. If some noise had distracted him as he cut her throat, or if any noise had been made in the process, he could have decided to lie low in the yard for a bit, just like Sally's killer in South Croydon, waiting for any danger to pass - only in Jack's case something then spooked him into not returning to the body.

So many plausible scenarios, so few certainties.

The most implausible ones for me are those which force some unknown man into becoming a throat-cutting assassin for one night only, when we all know very well that Jack was in the area, tooled up and ready to go, and capable of doing this one with his eyes shut.

Love,

Caz
X

[Observer]

Hi Sam

Hi Obs,Then he simultaneously had perfect and lousy timing. Perfect, because Liz was still there, presumably dusting herself off - just at the moment he arrived, as if from nowhere. Lousy, because Diemschutz was probably a couple of tens of seconds away when Liz's throat was cut. It's such a very contrived, not to say unlikely, series of events that it baffles me why the "interruption" theory still holds strong after all this time.

I know it sounds far fetched Sam but not an impossibility. Fact is Liz Stride was despatched with the same cool dexterity that was the hallmark of Jack the Ripper, add this to the fact that the Ripper was out and about that night, and we can not rule Liz Stride as a Ripper victim.

all the best

Observer