A problem with the "Eddowes Shawl" DNA match

[drstrange169]

What stood out for me was,
"Dr Louhelainen, who declined to answer questions ..."

Sounds to me like something is happening and his been advised to not speak.

[mickreed]

What stood out for me was,
"Dr Louhelainen, who declined to answer questions ..."

Sounds to me like something is happening and his been advised to not speak.

Maybe Dusty. However, in his position, I'd have done the same, I think. We can't know exactly when he was asked about this, but it presumably came as a bolt from the blue, and he'd need time to get his stuff together. Basically, are these heavyweight critics right, and if so, WTF am I going to do/say?

As I've said earlier, he will surely have to make a statement soon though.

[mickreed]

[QUOTE=Caligo Umbrator;314599]
I suspect all this isn't really going to be of much concern in regards to any police work undertaken by JL, as such work isn't done on a part time, unpaid basis requiring little or no scientific rigour. At least we can hope that that's the case.
/QUOTE]

I hope so too, Caligo. Nevertheless, I'd have thought it would be bad look in the hands of a good defence counsel. "I spruiked a story around the world on dodgy evidence, but please ignore that because I wasn't paid for it." I'd leave it to our resident brief(s) to comment on that.

[GUT]

I suspect all this isn't really going to be of much concern in regards to any police work undertaken by JL, as such work isn't done on a part time, unpaid basis requiring little or no scientific rigour. At least we can hope that that's the case.

I hope so too, Caligo. Nevertheless, I'd have thought it would be bad look in the hands of a good defence counsel. "I spruiked a story around the world on dodgy evidence, but please ignore that because I wasn't paid for it." I'd leave it to our resident brief(s) to comment on that.

Well Mick as I said before I'd certainly have some fun.

"So Dr do you apply different standards when doing work for publication than when workng for the police?"

"Can you explain to the jury what you would have done different if JtR was for a criminal investigation?"

"Can you tell the Court how you got 314.c and 315.c mixed?"

And on and on and on.

[Chris]

Maybe Dusty. However, in his position, I'd have done the same, I think. We can't know exactly when he was asked about this, but it presumably came as a bolt from the blue, and he'd need time to get his stuff together.

But on the other hand Dr Louhelainen was first told privately about this problem exactly a month ago.

[mickreed]

But on the other hand Dr Louhelainen was first told privately about this problem exactly a month ago.

Well, yes indeed Chris. I meant that the knowledge that the press were on to it must have been a surprise.

Perhaps up until then he thought he was only dealing with 'nutters'.

[drstrange169]

"But on the other hand Dr Louhelainen was first told privately about this problem exactly a month ago."

And that is the very interesting thing.

[lynn cates]

truth

Hello Mick. Thanks for posting that.

Truth at last!

Cheers.
LC

[lynn cates]

shell game

Hello Chris.

"In that case, they surely need to say what "the probability of the match calculated from the rest of the haplotype data" is. There is no information whatsoever on that in the book."

They do indeed. Ever see a man duped into playing a shell game?

Cheers.
LC

[lynn cates]

provenance

Hello Mick.

"this is the only substantive link between the shawl and Eddowes"

Well, there's ALWAYS the provenance. (heh-heh)

Cheers.
LC

[lynn cates]

pool

Hello (again) Mick.

"I wonder if they will still go to Salisbury."

We need a betting pool that they are not. How much you in for? (heh-heh)

Cheers.
LC

[GUT]

Hello (again) Mick.

"I wonder if they will still go to Salisbury."

We need a betting pool that they are not. How much you in for? (heh-heh)

Cheers.
LC

I'm in.

That they don't show.

But then Re seems pretty game for anything.

[mickreed]

I'm in.

That they don't show.

But then Re seems pretty game for anything.

If they don't show, will they pay for my air fare?

[mickreed]

But then Re seems pretty game for anything.

GUT, RE's next book?

Mathematics for the Million

Example 1

314.1 = 315.1

Example 2

314.1 = 315.1 = lots of $$$

[Chris]

I have to say I'm a bit sceptical about the "decimal point" explanation of where the 1 in 290,000 frequency estimate came from. The article suggests it was really 1 in 29,000 according to the GMI database (which now has 34,617 sequences, but would have had less when the "Eddowes" match was found).

But the thing is that the search engine of that database corrects for the error in nomenclature, and gives 99% of matches. Based on the information on the EMPOP website, the search engine wouldn't have been modified since the "Eddowes" match was found. I think the source of the 1 in 290,000 estimate will have to remain a mystery until Dr Louhelainen explains what went wrong.

But the important thing is that we now have it confirmed on the highest authority that the sequence variation described in the book is not rare but extremely common. That can't be dismissed any more as the opinion of non-geneticists (or even as the opinion of "nutters").