Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes
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His rules and definitions set impossible criteria, making everything unsafe, and if everything is unsafe then unsafe has no real meaning.
But of course, some data and evidence is unsafe, and shouldn't be relied upon. There are a lot of newspaper articles which are clearly unsubstantiated, and what someone says to a reporter will be presented very differently, and much less carefully (and more embellished; probably even encouraged to embellish by the reporter), and so should be treated like a soiled nappy from a baby who spent the morning gorging on apple sauce.
it is important to cross validate statements, to look for the newspapers that are presenting transcripts of the inquests over summaries. And from that extract as accurate an idea of what was said and what happened as we can.
Simply saying "the information we have that was gathered over 130 years ago using procedures that are now known to be deficient, combined with the fact that much of it is also lost or missing, makes it hard for us to know how reliable the facts are that are mentioned in those documents" is saying I think everyone here already knows. If he's trying to convince the converted, that's a bit of a waste of time. He just doesn't recognize that everyone knows the facts are suspect, except most other people get down to trying to establish what the actual facts are, though careful analysis of all the surviving bits of information, and from that rule out the erroneous options. Trevor, however, uses it as an excuse to say any old thing, and just repeat "unsafe" if anyone points out that he's just saying any old thing that comes to mind. That's not helpful. I mean, really, we're on page 47 just trying to establish that when multiple people testified to her wearing an apron that it means we have to accept she was wearing an apron. What's even more bizarre, is Trevor's claim that the two pieces of that apron didn't make up a whole apron, but there wasn't any piece missing from it! That was a new one to me, but it showed that Trevor is only about disagreement. It reminds me of the Monty Python sketch, the argument.
Anyway, in some ways it's a shame. His completely new way of looking at things does create good exercises, to force people to go back and re-examine things just to see if those ideas can be strongly supported. That would be very helpful at times, but it requires him to recognize when the arguments against him outweigh the arguments for, and he should say "Ok, so that idea didn't work; but what about this one ..." Then it because an opportunity to learn, because there's recognition of the strength of the counter case. But Trevor cannot admit someone else is right (see the not-missing-any-pieces-but-still-not-a-whole-apron debacle), and that makes it a pointless exercise.
But what does "unsafe" really mean? Trevor tries to suggest that if something is not 100% accurate it is unsafe. And I've used that against him to prove a point. But it's not true, is it. It's not something must be 100% safe, because if there's only a 0.1% chance of it being wrong, and 99.9% chance of it being right, then the odds are 999:1 that it is correct. That is a safe bet. If, however, there's a 50% chance of right and 50% chance of being wrong, the odds are 1:1, no better than a coin flip, and that would be an unsafe point to make a pillar of a case on. And truly unsafe is to build a case on something where the odds are in favor of it being wrong, so 75% likely to be wrong and only 25% correct, and it's 3:1 that information is wrong. Meaning, the "safety" of the information is more about the odds ratio than whether something has a 0% or 100% chance of being correct.
And when we combine all the data, the odds of all the witnesses we have saying she was wearing an apron, notwithstanding one could suggest those are given with various degrees of confidence, and then being wrong about that are well in favour of her wearing an apron. It's safe to make that claim, even though there is a non zero percentage chance they all could be wrong. It's just such a small probability that they could be wrong that it becomes very very unsafe to go with that idea, which Trevor does.
- Jeff
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