Originally posted by Al Bundy's Eyes
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No worries, and thanks.
Now, to be fair, Trevor is an experienced homicide detective, and that experience is not something to be dismissed. In many ways, I do see what he's getting at when he points out that the evidence we have to work with is "unsafe". What we have at our disposal is, for the most part, eye witness testimony combined with some expert testimony from the medical profession. It is well known that eye witness testimony is fraught with problems, and when people look at wrongful convictions the most common source of that miscarriage of justice is a result of mistaken identification by eye witnesses. Witness's memories of events are also highly subject to contamination during questioning if the interviews are not done in very specific ways, with a very careful attention to the kinds of language used by the interviewer. These kinds of errors are well known now, but were not known by the police of 1888. Standards, both in medical knowledge and police investigative techniques, have improved hugely since 1888, so everything they did is nowhere near what would be acceptable today.
If all Trevor was proposing was for people to remember that, and so not to get too convinced that we've "solved it", I would entirely agree with him. However, it's when he then introduces entirely unsupported alternatives, rather than simply saying "while that's what the testimony says, we must remember this is all eye witness testimony, and so we cannot be sure that it's correct" and stop there that I have a problem because he then goes on to suggest "what really happened was <insert something with no evidence at all here>. His "sanitary napkin" idea is not put out as an example to illustrate a point, it's put out with the conviction that this alternative is actually what happened.
Now, we must also remember, that while mistakes from eye witness testimony is often the cause of miscarriages of justice and wrongful convictions, wrongful convictions are also very rare in the grand scheme of things. That means, the probability that all of our "was wearing an apron" testimonies are wrong is still very very low. As such, while we need to recognize that the data we have is not up to the standards of a modern police investigation, we also have no choice but to constrain our "just so stories" based upon what we have to work with. Trevor's alternative reality story does not do that, and it is constrained by nothing other than it is at least all within the realm of physically possible. But physically possible and probable given the evidence are two entirely different concepts.
As I've said before, I have no doubt that the quality of the evidence, and the procedures of 1888, and so forth, are so below the standards of a modern investigation that they must frustrate Trevor to no end. I am absolutely certain that if he were involved in this case, in modern times, there are lots of questions he would want to ask of the witnesses, and a lot of procedures he would want far better documentation on. Relying on having to make inferences, with no ability to seek clarification, or even see a photo of the physical evidence being shown and discussed, can only be seen by someone with his background as entirely insufficient.
But we are not conducting a police investigation. We are doing historical research, and trying to piece together, through the window these written records give us, the best glimpse we can get back to the events of 1888. That window will be foggy, and our images incomplete and distorted in some ways, and certainly not up to the standards one would require to make a legal case. However, our goal is to do our best to use the information we do have, and through careful examination of those testimonies and documents, to see how much we can derive and find the points where the story the data and evidence we have can no longer support us moving further.
If we just discard the data because it "might" be wrong, then there's no point in even trying to be involved in a historic case like this. Of course it might be wrong, it's eye witness testimony. But if it's wrong, one has to stop. One cannot then say "now that I've dismissed the testimony as wrong I can say anything I want", that is unacceptable. One always needs to build the story with evidential support, and as I've pointed out a few times, the whole "not wearing an apron and it's a sanitary napkin" story has 0 evidence to support it. The original police interpretation was formulated when they had access to a lot more than we do as well. What we have are just glimpses as the entirety of the evidence they had. And there's nothing in what we have that contradicts what they concluded. I accept that if we had to derive the idea ourselves, it might be less wise to support it as strongly as I've done, but given the police of 1888 had more evidence and direct knowledge than we do, then unless the data is blatantly based upon erroneous methods (estimating time of death by touch, for example), then we simply look to see if the evidence strongly contradicts it.
Some areas, like whether or not Stride was a Ripper victim, I think are fair game for questioning the police theory. I waffle on that one a lot myself, though don't want to go into it here as I'll just end up contradicting myself tomorrow, or in the next post!
Anyway, as I say, there are a lot of things I actually do, in principle, agree with Trevor about if we view this as if we're conducting a modern police investigation. But if we were, one look at the evidence we have to work with would result in "Ok, we need to start from scratch. Reinterview these people properly. Document the physical evidence better. Get more information from the medical people." and so on. But, as historical research, we have what we have and must do the best we can.
- Jeff
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