Originally posted by Abby Normal
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Again, as a really rough illustration of what I mean, Let's just go with he's got 45 minutes to travel to his bolt hole and back, starting from Mitre Square, and we'll split that into his "going home" and "coming back" trip (so 22.5 minutes each way). The actual shape would be a bit more of an oval, but this is just a rough illustration. So, at an average walking speed (3.1 mph), he can get a shad over a mile away in 22.5 minutes. As in, anywhere in side the red circle (roughly drawn). The Green circle is centred on Mitre Square and to Goulston Street.
Now, once he's gotten that far away, if he wants to get rid of the apron and leave a message, heading back to Goulston Street is to head back towards a high risk area (toward the Green Circle) while carrying evidence (the apron). And to drop it off in Goulston Street, he has to be willing to be carrying that apron for another 22.5 minutes (roughly). If he were somewhere on the circle, and wanted to dump the apron, and was willing to walk for 22.5 minutes with it, then heading in almost any direction except back into the heart of where the police will be is far more probable. Think of risk like a hill, Mitre Square will be a high risk place for him, and that risk will decrease with distance - he's probably going to head "down hill". It levels out at some distance of course, but hopefully that makes a bit of sense.
Now, if his bolt hole is in the area, then he could have gotten there quickly, and also made a dash back out to get rid of the apron. If he is right in the high risk zone, he's not going to want to spend a lot of time carrying the apron knowing the police will be out searching people. That's why I think, if he dropped it after being at home, there's a good chance he lives very close to Goulston Street. Not necessarily in the Green circle, that's mostly to illustrate the idea that heading back towards that centre location is to go "uphill" in terms of risk after having successfully gotten away from there.
- Jeff
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