Kates Cuts

[Sam Flynn]

By including non-Canonical victim locations you provided a map that in and of itself proves multiple killers working within a small geographic area at around the same point in time.

It's not quite the same point in time, though. Tabram apart, the other non canonical murders were separated by several months from the C5, all five of which happened within the space of two and a bit months.

[Abby Normal]

The victim locations are the red squares, and there's a white line linking them as well (in chronological order). Trying to get the street names visible, with the jeopardy map overlay, is tricky as the map has to be large enough to see the street names, but zoomed out enough to show all the locations and have enough surrounding area to do the calculations properly. But you can get the idea by eye-balling key locations, such as in the C5 alone, the southern peak is directly below the GSG and north-east of Mitre Square, the northern one is north-west, basically, running north and south along Goulston Str, which runs from NW-SE.

Here's the map without an overlay. It's a bit messy as it has locations of various suspects (some, like Chapman's, reflect locations they weren't in at the time of the murders, but I didn't realize that at the time I placed them). There was a threat a while back where I listed various profile rankings for suspects (which zones they were in, etc). I was developing and improving some of the routines during the course of that threat, so the profiles change a bit over time, which can be interesting to see. Anyway, you might be able to use this, in conjunction with the overlay maps, to get an idea of what streets/area specifically things indicate. Might be easier if you print out copies, and go old school with a ruler are protractor though.

- Jeff

thanks jeff
this is cool. and theres my favored suspect right in the thick of it.

[Michael W Richards]

The victim locations are the red squares, and there's a white line linking them as well (in chronological order). Trying to get the street names visible, with the jeopardy map overlay, is tricky as the map has to be large enough to see the street names, but zoomed out enough to show all the locations and have enough surrounding area to do the calculations properly. But you can get the idea by eye-balling key locations, such as in the C5 alone, the southern peak is directly below the GSG and north-east of Mitre Square, the northern one is north-west, basically, running north and south along Goulston Str, which runs from NW-SE.

Here's the map without an overlay. It's a bit messy as it has locations of various suspects (some, like Chapman's, reflect locations they weren't in at the time of the murders, but I didn't realize that at the time I placed them). There was a threat a while back where I listed various profile rankings for suspects (which zones they were in, etc). I was developing and improving some of the routines during the course of that threat, so the profiles change a bit over time, which can be interesting to see. Anyway, you might be able to use this, in conjunction with the overlay maps, to get an idea of what streets/area specifically things indicate. Might be easier if you print out copies, and go old school with a ruler are protractor though.

- Jeff

By including non-Canonical victim locations you provided a map that in and of itself proves multiple killers working within a small geographic area at around the same point in time. Something so often debated by people who want to have some mythical madman as the sole killer in that area at that time.

[JeffHamm]

Sorry, the southern one is probably more along Houndsditch, or a bit west, really. The interesting thing, of course, since this includes Stride, is notice, if JtR is heading home after Stride, and Eddowes was seen leaving the police station towards Houndsditch (at the other end), then you can imagine how the two of them could have met.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

thanks jeff! very interesting. can you do this one, but on a map where we can see the streets labeled? and also has tje victims locations. just stick with c5.

The victim locations are the red squares, and there's a white line linking them as well (in chronological order). Trying to get the street names visible, with the jeopardy map overlay, is tricky as the map has to be large enough to see the street names, but zoomed out enough to show all the locations and have enough surrounding area to do the calculations properly. But you can get the idea by eye-balling key locations, such as in the C5 alone, the southern peak is directly below the GSG and north-east of Mitre Square, the northern one is north-west, basically, running north and south along Goulston Str, which runs from NW-SE.

Here's the map without an overlay. It's a bit messy as it has locations of various suspects (some, like Chapman's, reflect locations they weren't in at the time of the murders, but I didn't realize that at the time I placed them). There was a threat a while back where I listed various profile rankings for suspects (which zones they were in, etc). I was developing and improving some of the routines during the course of that threat, so the profiles change a bit over time, which can be interesting to see. Anyway, you might be able to use this, in conjunction with the overlay maps, to get an idea of what streets/area specifically things indicate. Might be easier if you print out copies, and go old school with a ruler are protractor though.

- Jeff

[Abby Normal]

An interesting theory Abby, but the down side would be that you could pinpoint his location, but be unaware of his movements, or predict his movements without ever being certain of his position.

loo. true.

Heisenberg walks into a bar. bartenter says whatll ya have. heisenberg says i dont know.

[Al Bundy's Eyes]

very interesting indeed
your maps and mentions of peaks and dual locations made me think of superpositions in quantum mechanics. i wonder if we can input this info into shrodingers equation, solve and collapse the wave function to a single point where tha ripper lives. ; )

An interesting theory Abby, but the down side would be that you could pinpoint his location, but be unaware of his movements, or predict his movements without ever being certain of his position.

[Abby Normal]

Now, compare that with the output from Dr. Watson, which is based upon all of the C5, but doesn't include the location of the Goulston Street Graffiti (which is the yellow square marker). And look, there are two peaks, one northish and one southish of the GSG, and they would both fall inside your blue circles.

- Jeff

very interesting indeed
your maps and mentions of peaks and dual locations made me think of superpositions in quantum mechanics. i wonder if we can input this info into shrodingers equation, solve and collapse the wave function to a single point where tha ripper lives. ; )

[Abby Normal]

Hi Abby Normal,

Yes, I think that's a very reasonable hypothesis (the Grafitti would be on the green circle at roughly 45 degree angle north east; the blue line is just directly east so I could scale the bigger circle). The notion of "not too close to the graffiti" is what's called a buffer zone, basically, the notion is that the offender will create space between their anchor point (residence in this case) and important points (like where they offend, and in this case, where they get rid of evidence). That creates pressure, if you will, to travel outward, but travel is a risk with evidence, so there's a pressure to not travel too far. That pressure is greater in the high risk areas.

Anyway, I've added two blue circles, roughly 5 minutes walk in radius, from the Grafiti (so the far edge would be 10 minutes), one north and one south of the GSG, to represent roughly what I think you've just described above. You have just produced a geographical profile - you've used the spatial information about the offense locations, and used psychological aspects of risk avoidance, and so forth, to try and estimate where the offender's anchor point might be based upon a set of calculations. That's what geographical profiling software basically attempts to do, only through mathematics rather than conscious reasoning. That's because the conscious reasoning is based upon logical principles and influences, which means they produce regularities in terms of distances, direction of travel, and so forth, and those can all be described by maths.

So here's your profile:

thanks jeff! very interesting. can you do this one, but on a map where we can see the streets labeled? and also has tje victims locations. just stick with c5.

[JeffHamm]

Oh, and if Stride is left out and the graffiti is included, the end result with the GSG is similar to the version without the GSG and without Stride, though zone 1 tightens up around the peak a bit, but nothing major changes overall. In some ways, the peak area in that version appeals to me, as a location very close to Chapman makes sense to me given it appears she was killed as dawn was breaking. But really, none of those north peaks are really so far away that it's out of the question.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Sigh, and because I can't help myself, I've done the C5 profile and inputted the location of the GSG as well, just to see. And interestingly, that results in a peak zone that is just slightly west of the GSG, and extends up into that northern zone you mentioned (I've not drawn those circles in this time). The zone contour lines get messed up when I shrink the image to make for a managable file size, unfortunately, and I forgot to turn them off (as above). Anyway, as you can see, as information gets added, the profile of course changes (different input different output), but they are similar, or stable, in many ways as well, as they should be.

Ok, I'll try and stop now.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

I should have done this above, but can't edit that post anymore, but I've drawn those two zones you've described directly onto the Dr. Watson output. Note, I have to draw each circle by hand, but have done my best to make them appropriately scaled. To do that, I centre them on Mitre Square and size them to reach GSG (the solid yellow dot) then move them to have the lowest or highest point at the graffiti since the graffiti is a distance that would be about 5 minutes walk.

Anyway, below are two profiles generated by Dr. Watson, the first including all of the C5, the one on the right leaves out Stride since her inclusion is probably the most debatable (realizing that there are debates about others as well of course, but trying to cover every combination and permutation would be a bit much for this). While the peak location clearly shifts, that's not entirely surprising because the spatial layout is very different without Stride (her location creates "importance", if you will, to the south east, and if she's not a victim of JtR, that area becomes devoid of offenses and the overall pattern becomes a more crescent shape). However, what we just did was base our inferences only from two locations from one particular offense (Eddowes). Dr. Watson has no idea about the graffiti as I've not entered that location (in part to avoid biasing the analysis with respect to Eddowes case - part of me thinks adding that location might be ok as it's more information, and part of me thinks it might skew an analysis towards offenses that one just happens to have more locations to enter. Until I get enough cases where I could compare what doing that sort of thing has on the analysis, I can't say whether it would be a good or bad idea, so to err on the side of caution I leave them out.)

But notice, whether Stride is included or not, the northern zone of interest you suggested always contains zone 1. Even the location of the peak back to the GSG is more or less close to due south, a direction avoiding heading west, into the heart of the danger zone. I think it's interesting how, through spatial and psychological reasoning based upon just that one offense, that northern zone area you suggest is also consistently one that the spatial analysis of the offenses, without the graffiti, also highlights.

Now, that being said, some offenders can do strange things and are "not like the others", so this is not proof that JtR has any association with that area, but rather, it just suggests that your line of reasoning fits with the kind of spatial behaviours that most marauding offenders demonstrate.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Now, compare that with the output from Dr. Watson, which is based upon all of the C5, but doesn't include the location of the Goulston Street Graffiti (which is the yellow square marker). And look, there are two peaks, one northish and one southish of the GSG, and they would both fall inside your blue circles.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

got it-makes sense and I agree. either way you slice it-whether he dropped the apron off on his way to his bolt hole(and long missed it first time) or went home first and then went back out to drop the apron, I think he lived somewhere east of mitre square and I would venture either north or south of goulston street. I hesitate to say he lived east of goulston street because if he went home first and headed back out-then he would be headed back west (toward goulston st) and back toward the danger zone of mitre square. for psychological reasons he may fear to do this, unless, of course, the wentworth buildings is where he knew he wanted to specifically go and drop the apron off.

so I would posit the ripper lived near goulston street (perhaps somewhere within a 5-8 minute walk max) either north or south of it. perhaps west as secondary possibility.

so on your graph I would draw circles, or ovals, north and south of where the green line intersects the blue line (if that is indeed the location of the gsg). which would have a radius of no more than a 5-8 minute walk to the gsg location. I think these would be the two primary locations where the ripper lived (or had a bolt hole).

I also don't think he would live within a couple blocks of the GSG because then it would be too close to home.

Hi Abby Normal,

Yes, I think that's a very reasonable hypothesis (the Grafitti would be on the green circle at roughly 45 degree angle north east; the blue line is just directly east so I could scale the bigger circle). The notion of "not too close to the graffiti" is what's called a buffer zone, basically, the notion is that the offender will create space between their anchor point (residence in this case) and important points (like where they offend, and in this case, where they get rid of evidence). That creates pressure, if you will, to travel outward, but travel is a risk with evidence, so there's a pressure to not travel too far. That pressure is greater in the high risk areas.

Anyway, I've added two blue circles, roughly 5 minutes walk in radius, from the Grafiti (so the far edge would be 10 minutes), one north and one south of the GSG, to represent roughly what I think you've just described above. You have just produced a geographical profile - you've used the spatial information about the offense locations, and used psychological aspects of risk avoidance, and so forth, to try and estimate where the offender's anchor point might be based upon a set of calculations. That's what geographical profiling software basically attempts to do, only through mathematics rather than conscious reasoning. That's because the conscious reasoning is based upon logical principles and influences, which means they produce regularities in terms of distances, direction of travel, and so forth, and those can all be described by maths.

So here's your profile:

[Abby Normal]

Sure. Ok, we have roughly an hour from the crime to the point the apron is found. And, I'm suggesting something in the vicinity of 15 minutes of JtR being in his bolt hole (washing up, changing clothes, putting his trophies away, etc). So there's 45 minutes left for hiim to "get there and back again". It takes 5 minutes to get to Goulston Street. To keep it simple, if he heads to Goulston Street first (5 minutes), he now has to get to his bolt hole and back to Goulston street within the remaining 40 minutes, so after he gets home, he's free but he now spends as much as 20 minutes in the street with the apron, and heads back towards the crime scene, going from safe to risky locations. If he headed away from Goulston street, he can only travel for 20 minutes to get home, as he needs 25 minutes to head back to Mitre Square area and then beyond to Goulston. (No, I don't mean he actually goes to Mitre Square, he would avoid that, but in that direction).

Again, as a really rough illustration of what I mean, Let's just go with he's got 45 minutes to travel to his bolt hole and back, starting from Mitre Square, and we'll split that into his "going home" and "coming back" trip (so 22.5 minutes each way). The actual shape would be a bit more of an oval, but this is just a rough illustration. So, at an average walking speed (3.1 mph), he can get a shad over a mile away in 22.5 minutes. As in, anywhere in side the red circle (roughly drawn). The Green circle is centred on Mitre Square and to Goulston Street.

Now, once he's gotten that far away, if he wants to get rid of the apron and leave a message, heading back to Goulston Street is to head back towards a high risk area (toward the Green Circle) while carrying evidence (the apron). And to drop it off in Goulston Street, he has to be willing to be carrying that apron for another 22.5 minutes (roughly). If he were somewhere on the circle, and wanted to dump the apron, and was willing to walk for 22.5 minutes with it, then heading in almost any direction except back into the heart of where the police will be is far more probable. Think of risk like a hill, Mitre Square will be a high risk place for him, and that risk will decrease with distance - he's probably going to head "down hill". It levels out at some distance of course, but hopefully that makes a bit of sense.

Now, if his bolt hole is in the area, then he could have gotten there quickly, and also made a dash back out to get rid of the apron. If he is right in the high risk zone, he's not going to want to spend a lot of time carrying the apron knowing the police will be out searching people. That's why I think, if he dropped it after being at home, there's a good chance he lives very close to Goulston Street. Not necessarily in the Green circle, that's mostly to illustrate the idea that heading back towards that centre location is to go "uphill" in terms of risk after having successfully gotten away from there.

- Jeff

got it-makes sense and I agree. either way you slice it-whether he dropped the apron off on his way to his bolt hole(and long missed it first time) or went home first and then went back out to drop the apron, I think he lived somewhere east of mitre square and I would venture either north or south of goulston street. I hesitate to say he lived east of goulston street because if he went home first and headed back out-then he would be headed back west (toward goulston st) and back toward the danger zone of mitre square. for psychological reasons he may fear to do this, unless, of course, the wentworth buildings is where he knew he wanted to specifically go and drop the apron off.

so I would posit the ripper lived near goulston street (perhaps somewhere within a 5-8 minute walk max) either north or south of it. perhaps west as secondary possibility.

so on your graph I would draw circles, or ovals, north and south of where the green line intersects the blue line (if that is indeed the location of the gsg). which would have a radius of no more than a 5-8 minute walk to the gsg location. I think these would be the two primary locations where the ripper lived (or had a bolt hole).

I also don't think he would live within a couple blocks of the GSG because then it would be too close to home.