Lechmere-Cross bye bye

[Errata]

How do you figure? Kemper confessed, Kurten was identified by a rape victim and Petiot was on the lamb from the cops after they discovered bodies in his house.

They interacted with the police. They didn't assist the police.

[Columbo]

Petiot. Kurten. Kemper. Off the top of my head..

How do you figure? Kemper confessed, Kurten was identified by a rape victim and Petiot was on the lamb from the cops after they discovered bodies in his house.

[drstrange169]

Hello David,

... if Paul thought he left his house at 3.44 but his timepiece was fast

Also keep in mind that we don't know Paul even owned a timepiece. He may have been woken by a "knocker upper", like so many in the area and simply assumed the time from that persons actions.

[Ausgirl]

What serial killer/murderer has ever worked with the police on solving their murder case? That sounds like a Stephen King book!

Petiot. Kurten. Kemper. Off the top of my head..

[Robert St Devil]

Itīs not to say anything at all but to answer your question.

Ha! Fair enough. Sure the plate is full at the moment without getting into why Jack the ripper would have worked with the police.

[David Orsam]

Now perhaps?

Now, what?



See, thing is, if he thinks I'm going to reveal all if he just keeps quiet then there's no incentive for him to ask me.

So let's see if he does.

[For Fisherman: this is actually genuine. I'm reluctant to even tell you because it will only encourage your timing gap argument but happy to do so, despite your refusals to answer my questions, if you want to know.]

[David Orsam]

Not having answered and not having been able to answer are not the same.

No but, like I said, I draw my own conclusions about your reason for not answering my questions.

[Fisherman]

In a sane world that would be the end of the discussion.

Would that not depend on who had the definition rights of what a sane world is?

[Fisherman]

Is that to say that Jack the Ripper had the intent of manipulating the police from the very onset of his murderous scheme? Or did he get caught and had to find a way to "fake his way" out of it?

Itīs not to say anything at all but to answer your question.

[Fisherman]

Well it is a fact that you haven't answered many questions that I have asked you so no "pretending" is actually necessary.

Not having answered and not having been able to answer are not the same. So itīs pretending alright.

Gotta go.

[MrBarnett]

In the absence of any answers to my questions from Fisherman I am forced to draw my own conclusions.

The Claim

According to the famous TV documentary, it was stated that "Andy and Christer have found a major gap in Lechmere's timings". On this forum, while not saying whether he agreed or disagreed with this statement, Fisherman nevertheless modified it (suggesting he disagreed with it) but only changed it to "It seems that Andy and Christer have found a major gap in Lechmere's timings" which, as far as I'm concerned, is not materially different from the original (suggesting he agrees with the original).

In any event, the claim that there is, or seems to be, a "major gap", or in Fisherman's own words in the documentary "a discrepancy of about 9 minutes or something like that", is said to be based on three factual elements as below.

1. The Time Lechmere Left his House

According to Fisherman, in the documentary, Lechmere "left his home...at 3.30". In summarising the evidence he claimed that Lechmere "said at the inquest that he left at 3.30, some reports say 3.20 but the more common reports say 3.30". To which Andy Griffiths replied, "Okay, we've got our start time of 3.30."

However, a number of different newspaper reports say that Lechmere's testimony was that he left at "about 3.30". As we are dealing with a murder case here, where the standard of proof is "beyond reasonable doubt", we cannot say beyond reasonable doubt, or even on the balance or probabilities, that Lechmere left his home at 3.30. Even if he had said he had left his home at 3.30 we would need to know how he could be sure of the exact time in an age when watches were not as common as today, but he does not appear to have said this so we don't need to worry about that.

Thus, we can conclude that Lechmere left his house at about 3.30 which gives us an effective range of anywhere between 3.20 and 3.40.

2. The Time of the Walk to Bucks Row

Having timed a walk from Doveton Street to the part of Bucks Row where the body of Mary Ann Nichols was found as being 7.07 minutes, at what, we are told by Fisherman on this forum, was "normal" walking pace, it was concluded by Fisherman in the documentary that if he left his home at 3.30 "he should have been here at 3.37". Is this correct?

Well, we are not told what route was walked by Fisherman and Andy Griffiths. They could have walked across Cambridge Heath Road down Headlam Street through Collingwood Street through Merceron Street and into Brady Street then into Durward Street or continued down Cambridge Heath Road into Darling Row and then through the Sainsburys development across Brady Street into Durward Street. The former undoubtedly takes longer but there is no evidence as to which route Lechmere walked down. As it happens, he could not possibly have walked the second route because Sainsburys did not exist in 1888 but at that time Darling Row led into Bath Street and he could have walked along Bath Street into Brady Street and then into Bucks Row. From looking at maps of the day, it seems to me that, if anything, a walk down Bath Street might have taken longer than the current cut-through past Sainsburys although probably not involving a huge amount of extra time. While it is not an unreasonable conclusion to say that Lechmere would probably have taken the shortest route, I don't think one can say beyond reasonable doubt that he did so.

More important is that there is really no such thing as normal walking speed. Different people walk at different speeds. From my own timings it is perfectly possible that his walk to where Nichols was found took Lechmere 9 minutes. To say that Lechmere must have walked at the same speed as Fisherman and Andy Griffiths so that he "should" have taken 7 minutes is not sustainable.

3. Paul's Arrival Time

The final element on which the TV documentary's conclusion was based that there is, or seems to be, a "major gap" in Lechmere's timings is that Paul arrived in Buck's Row 3.45. Thus, said Andy Griffiths: "Paul says he came into the street at 3.45".

In his evidence at the inquest, however, Paul did not state what time he came into Bucks Row, simply saying that he left his house about or just before 3.45. Does "just before" mean one minute before or can it mean a few minutes before? I suggest it could easily mean that he left his house at 3.41 or 3.42. It could could mean this even if Paul thought he left his house at 3.44 but his timepiece was fast and he believed he was leaving later than he actually did.

Fisherman relies heavily on a newspaper report a couple of days after the murder which purports to record Paul saying he arrived in Bucks Row at exactly 3.45 but the problem with this is that the time of 3.45 had been widely mentioned in other newspapers as the time that P.C. Neil had discovered the body of Nichols and the clear purpose of the interview with Paul was to contradict the official story that the police had found the body. To that extent it can hardly be relied on as an accurate account of events.

Can we say beyond reasonable doubt that Paul walked into Bucks Row at exactly 3.45? I don't think so.

Conclusion

The TV documentary says that "According to Paul's evidence, Lechmere found the body some sixteen minutes after he left home". Well not according to Paul's evidence actually because he doesn't tell us in his evidence what time Lechmere found the body nor does any of the evidence tell us exactly when Lechmere left his home in order for such a calculation of 16 minutes to be made. But it is the difference between 16 minutes and 7 minutes which produced the conclusion of a "major gap" of 9 minutes which supposedly needs to be explained.

One can argue until one is blue in the face about possibilities and probabilities but in my submission the evidence is nowhere near strong enough to be able to claim that there is a "missing" 9 minutes or any missing minutes at all.

If one simply wants to say that, on one view of the evidence, there was an opportunity for Lechmere to have murdered Nichols on his way to work then I don't think anyone would disagree with that. No-one is challenging the claim that if Lechmere left at 3.30 and if Paul arrived in Bucks Row at 3.45 then there are some missing minutes in a walk that should not, in normal circumstances and without any delays, have taken more than 10 minutes. So he could have murdered Nichols, and further he could have left his home at any time before 3.30 which would have given him more time.

The problem is that the "major gap" was used in the documentary in a dramatic way to bolster the case against Lechmere; as if there was a large period of missing time which needs to be explained. But, in reality, that's not the case and I suggest it is an illegitimate tactic to use the alleged "major gap" as a point against Lechmere and in favour of him being Jack the Ripper.

If we were certain of the exact times of departure and arrival then fine but we are not and we cannot be and any arguments about those exact times can be nothing more than highly speculative without any solid evidential foundation.

One might even call the "major gap" a fictional creation.

In a sane world that would be the end of the discussion.

[Abby Normal]

He might reflect on his attitude overnight and ask me tomorrow!

It's not like me to withhold information but, having said that, it's been hiding in plain sight on this forum for over a year. I'm fairly sure Fish hasn't noticed it otherwise he would have surely said something given that it relates to the timing issue.

Now perhaps?

I suck at research like this so bad I cant even find it on here!!!

[Robert St Devil]

Tore Hedin of Sweden.

Is that to say that Jack the Ripper had the intent of manipulating the police from the very onset of his murderous scheme? Or did he get caught and had to find a way to "fake his way" out of it?

[David Orsam]

Yes, letīs pretend that.

Well it is a fact that you haven't answered many questions that I have asked you so no "pretending" is actually necessary.

[David Orsam]

An Announcement

Can I just say for the benefit of any individual or individuals who seem to think it is a beneficial use of their time to send me long (unconvincing) emails and private messages about this subject that I do not under any circumstances get involved in off-board arguments relating to JTR matters and if you want to challenge anything I post on this forum please do so on the forum, in public, or not at all.