Charles Lechmere: Prototypical Life of a Serial Killer

[Mark J D]

How many times do we have to ... How many times do we have to ... How many times are we expected to ... How many embarrassing efforts do we have to ... How much time do we have to ... ?

I am speechless...

M.

[Fiver]

I am speechless...

M.

"And there was great rejoicing!"

[FrankO]

The yardage is one of the problems I have always had with the Lech theory . Robert Paul does seem to be a reluctant, maybe nervous individual who didn't want to get involved . But how was Lech supposed to know that ? For all he knew the person approaching him could have been a policeman, an off duty policeman or someone who used to be a constable. Or perhaps even just someone of a suspicious nature . Any of those could ask awkward questions for him.

Like Herlock, I totally agree, Darryl. A guilty Lechmere couldn’t have known what type of person was approaching; he couldn’t have known this person wouldn’t have seen or heard him moving around and then away from the body; he couldn’t have known he wouldn’t walk into the arms of beat copper Neil after leaving the body with Paul; he couldn’t have known that Mizen wasn’t the beat copper; and he couldn’t have known that Neil would arrive at the crime spot before Mizen would.

[Herlock Sholmes]

I am speechless...

M.

Fiver beat me too it.

Its a pity that there isn’t more silence from those trying to frame a case against the most exaggerated suspect in the history of the subject.

[The Rookie Detective]

This is actually very simple, despite attempting to define oozing be it profusely or not as indicating bleeding under pressure science and medicine say Neil could not have seen what some believe he saw.

The flow rates from various blood vessels are very well documented in medical literature.

The rates are given in Inside Bucks Row.

The flow from a single carotid Artery is approx 370 ml per minute.

Ackroyd et al in the Journal of Vascular Surgery suggest 371ml plus or minus 62ml
plus or minus, but 370 is a easier figure to work with.

But let's look at all the figures using those quoted in the article

So at low a single carotid loses 309 ml per minute.

At mid point Its 371 ml per minute

At the high it's 433 ml per minute


Both carotids are completely severed, therefore the total lose of blood per minute is

Low 618 , mid 742, high 866.per minute

The average Human body contain just under 5 litres, women slightly less ( unless pregnant)

Heart failure can start when more than 40% volume is lost, the exact figure varies between individuals. It's normally accepted that 50% is when a heart beat becomes difficult to detect, the heart close to failing.

So let's use 50%

Christer suggests Neil arrives 6 minutes after the carmen.

So at 6 minutes how much blood will be lost?

Basic maths

Low 618 × 6 = 3708ml
Mid 742 × 6 = 4452ml
High 866 × 6 = 5196ml

This I think clearly shows that the probality of Neil seeing Bleeding under pressure is EXTREMELY unlikely.

Let's now use the 50% loss , approx 2500ml

And see how long it would take to reach the 50% figure.


Low approx 4 minutes

Mid approx 3.-4 minutes

High approx 3 minutes.

While the blood volume is assumed to be 5000ml for these calculations, it must be stress that this figure is used for convince, and it will vary slightly.

However, it does clearly show just how unlikely Neil is to see bleeding under pressure if he arrives 6 minutes after the discovery of the body.
And of course it may be that one needs to allow another 30-60 seconds for the Actual cut , if Lechmere is indeed the killer.

It also clearly show that for Mizen arriving say 3 minutes after Neil, seeing Bleeding under pressure is all but impossible.

One further point, Mary Ann also had other wounds, which would undoubtedly have increased the rate of blood loss.

Steve

Excellent post and good to see the use of maths and science when looking at this particular murder.

I must say that I find it difficult to believe that Lechmere is the killer based on all of the available evidence.

However, for the sake of balance.. what's the likelihood of both PC Neil and PC Mizen being wrong about observing blood flowing under pressure?

As you state clearly, the likelihood of Mizen observing blood under pressure is as close to impossible as you can get and when coupled with PC Neil claiming similar prior to Mizen, wouldn't that suggest that the murder occurred later?

And strengthen the argument that Lechmere was the killer?

Now as I say, I personally believe the murder occurred at 3.30am and that the killer had left Bucks Row by 3.35am...BUT...

Can both Neil and Mizen be mistaken?

Surely it also makes PC Neil more suspicious in terms of time frame?

BUT...there is another policeman who passe alpong Bucks Row around the same time as PC Neil at approximately 3.15am; PS Kirby.


So I will ask for yet again...where did Kirby go? And why isn't he involved in the discussion?

I find the idea that all focus is put onto Lechmere to be peculiar, when PS Kirby seems to have been a ghost for the duration of the time between him passing through Bucks Rows, to the point the scene is swamped with various other individuals from the nearby slaughter house etc...

We know of Neil, Thain and Mizen's beats relative to each other, but what about PS Kirby? He was there and yet he's passed over.


If Neil and Mizen seem to inadvertently support a later killing time, then that makes Lechmere, Paul, PC Neil, PC Mizen and PS Kirby ALL persons of interest.


Ultimately, if science and math support a bleed-out time under pressure of less than 8 to 10 minutes, then how can we dismiss anyone of the above?

For all the above to be innocent, the real Killer HAD to have left Nichols no later than 3.36am and so the cuts to her throat MUST have been made no later than 3.35am. That's a definitive parameter.

Because if the cuts were made AFTER 3.36am, then it must have been Lechmere (or Neil) or the elusive Kirby.

I DO NOT believe Lechmere is the killer, BUT when 2 police officers claim to see blood coming out under pressure, we need to work out if the Math and Science support them or make them look incompetent as officers.


Thoughts?











Thoughts please

[Lewis C]

If Neil and Mizen seem to inadvertently support a later killing time, then that makes Lechmere, Paul, PC Neil, PC Mizen and PS Kirby ALL persons of interest.


Ultimately, if science and math support a bleed-out time under pressure of less than 8 to 10 minutes, then how can we dismiss anyone of the above?

For all the above to be innocent, the real Killer HAD to have left Nichols no later than 3.36am and so the cuts to her throat MUST have been made no later than 3.35am. That's a definitive parameter.

Because if the cuts were made AFTER 3.36am, then it must have been Lechmere (or Neil) or the elusive Kirby.

I DO NOT believe Lechmere is the killer, BUT when 2 police officers claim to see blood coming out under pressure, we need to work out if the Math and Science support them or make them look incompetent as officers.


Thoughts?

Hi RD,

I don't think this line of inquiry is going to get us anywhere, because we don't know down to the exact minute the times that various things happened, which we would have to be able to do in order to say that the killer was unlikely to be someone who was there before Cross was. If the murder was committed by someone who was there before Cross, then it is possible that the murder was committed only about a minute earlier than when it would have been committed if Cross was the killer.

[JeffHamm]

This is actually very simple, despite attempting to define oozing be it profusely or not as indicating bleeding under pressure science and medicine say Neil could not have seen what some believe he saw.

The flow rates from various blood vessels are very well documented in medical literature.

The rates are given in Inside Bucks Row.

The flow from a single carotid Artery is approx 370 ml per minute.

Ackroyd et al in the Journal of Vascular Surgery suggest 371ml plus or minus 62ml
plus or minus, but 370 is a easier figure to work with.

But let's look at all the figures using those quoted in the article

So at low a single carotid loses 309 ml per minute.

At mid point Its 371 ml per minute

At the high it's 433 ml per minute


Both carotids are completely severed, therefore the total lose of blood per minute is

Low 618 , mid 742, high 866.per minute

The average Human body contain just under 5 litres, women slightly less ( unless pregnant)

Heart failure can start when more than 40% volume is lost, the exact figure varies between individuals. It's normally accepted that 50% is when a heart beat becomes difficult to detect, the heart close to failing.

So let's use 50%

Christer suggests Neil arrives 6 minutes after the carmen.

So at 6 minutes how much blood will be lost?

Basic maths

Low 618 × 6 = 3708ml
Mid 742 × 6 = 4452ml
High 866 × 6 = 5196ml

This I think clearly shows that the probality of Neil seeing Bleeding under pressure is EXTREMELY unlikely.

Let's now use the 50% loss , approx 2500ml

And see how long it would take to reach the 50% figure.


Low approx 4 minutes

Mid approx 3.-4 minutes

High approx 3 minutes.

While the blood volume is assumed to be 5000ml for these calculations, it must be stress that this figure is used for convince, and it will vary slightly.

However, it does clearly show just how unlikely Neil is to see bleeding under pressure if he arrives 6 minutes after the discovery of the body.
And of course it may be that one needs to allow another 30-60 seconds for the Actual cut , if Lechmere is indeed the killer.

It also clearly show that for Mizen arriving say 3 minutes after Neil, seeing Bleeding under pressure is all but impossible.

One further point, Mary Ann also had other wounds, which would undoubtly have increased the rate of bloof loss.

Steve

Hi Steve,

Nice. This got me thinking and I was wondering if we might be able to tailor the above more specifically to the Nichols' case.
Nichols was a bit smaller compared to the average female today (she was only 5' 2" tall, and apparently the average height for adult females in the UK today is 5'4"). Also, the average person will include males, who tend to be larger.

I did a quick search to see if there was any way to convert a person's weight to an estimate of blood volume. Apparently, according to Wikipedia, the source of all truth and knowledge, "The blood volume is 70 ml/kg body weight in adult males, 65 ml/kg in adult females and 70-75 ml/kg in children (1 year old and over)."

So I thought I would grab Nichols' weight from her description on the Victim's page, but (and there's always a but) unfortunately, I can't find any record of her weight, only her height (5' 2"). So next I went looking at a way to estimate weight based upon height.

That led me to this though, which lists ranges for weight for women of various heights presuming a healthy BMI. It could be argued that Nichols might, due to her poverty, be below a healthy BMI, and she is described on the victim's page as having "small delicate features", but I've got with these values to be conservative. The table would suggest a weight between 104 and 131lbs, or 47 to 59.5 kg. That page also provides a link to height-weight ranges for under weight, overweight, and obese ranges too.

I stuck with a healthy range to start, and that would suggest that her blood volume is likely to have been much less than the 5000ml average, and would likely be in the range of 3073 ml to 3870 ml.

And using the low medium and high rates of blood loss you mentioned, those give us 50% loss times of (when the heart stops beating, so no more loss under pressure):

.........................slow........med........fa st
104lbs (47kg) .. 2m 29s | 2m 04s | 1m 46s
131lbs (59.5kg) 3m 07s | 2m 36s | 2m 14s

all of which are under 3 minutes, apart from the 3m 7s for slow rate and upper end of the chosen weights.

Obviously, if she was lighter than I've included the times get shorter, and if she was heavier they would get longer.
The "overweight" range on the table is listed as 136 to 158 lbs (61.8-71.8kgs), and doing the same thing with those we are still under 4 minutes to reach the 50% blood loss even under the well over weight and slow rate of loss.

.........................slow........med........fa st
136lbs (61.8kg) 3m 15s | 2m 42s | 2m 19s
158lbs (71.8kg) 3m 46s | 3m 08s | 2m 41s

As a result, it is rather improbable that any of the police saw "bleeding under pressure", and any bleeding would be passive flow. We know it's going to take between 3 and 4 minutes for the carmen to reach Mizen, and he in turn will require another 3-4 minutes to get to the crime scene, so at the very least we're talking 6 minutes, in which case we're well beyond any of these times. Given PC Neil seems to arrive about the time the carmen reach PC Mizen, and their journey looks to require over 3 minutes, that means PC Neil appears to arrive between 3 & 4 minutes after the carmen left (and of course, she's also bleeding the whole time Cross/Lechmere has to wait for Paul to come up, then for them to examine her, etc), which just makes it even less and less probable that she would be bleeding under pressure by the time PC Neil arrives, let alone Mizen.

Now, if JtR was interrupted by Cross/Lechmere entering Buck's Row, it would take him roughly 1m 30s to get to the crime scene, but he waits for Paul, who has to walk another 120 feet, so another 25seconds. The murder, starting at the point of the first throat cut, probably only required a couple minutes, let's say 2 since all he has to do is cut the throat twice, lift the dress, and make a number of stabs and cuts. Maybe 2 minutes is overly generous and I should say 1 to avoid cherry picking. So from the time of the first throat cut in this situation, she's been bleeding under pressure for something like 2m 55s by the time the carmen reach her body.

As such, under those circumstances, there is the slightest possibility that Paul could have detected the last signs of life, although that tends to require her to be near the upper end of the healthy weight and to have bled on the slow end of the range. Given her wounds, and her life style, I'm thinking that's a hard position to defend, but it is there to consider.

Anyway, I think there's some useful information here that can be used. Obviously, there are assumptions one has to make, but by working with the upper and lower limits (the margins of error introduced due to our having to make assumptions), I think we can still use that to guide our understanding.

- Jeff

[GBinOz]

Now, if JtR was interrupted by Cross/Lechmere entering Buck's Row, it would take him roughly 1m 30s to get to the crime scene, but he waits for Paul, who has to walk another 120 feet, so another 25seconds. The murder, starting at the point of the first throat cut, probably only required a couple minutes, let's say 2 since all he has to do is cut the throat twice, lift the dress, and make a number of stabs and cuts. Maybe 2 minutes is overly generous and I should say 1 to avoid cherry picking. So from the time of the first throat cut in this situation, she's been bleeding under pressure for something like 2m 55s by the time the carmen reach her body.

- Jeff

Hi Jeff,

This is from the Chapman inquest:

The Foreman: Is there anything to indicate that the crime in the case of the woman Nicholls was perpetrated with the same object as this?
The Coroner: There is a difference in this respect, at all events, that the medical expert is of opinion that, in the case of Nicholls, the mutilations were made first.

Of course it is only an opinion by the medical expert, but it could also be an explanation as to why Lechmere didn't just leave. If this were his first murder and the throat cutting was not yet part of his ritual, he may have been about to depart when Polly showed signs of regaining consciousness. By the time he decide to cut her throat, and did so, to eliminate her identifying him, Paul may have been too close for him to scarper.

I'm no expert on the matter, but it is my understanding that the Ripper strangled the victims before cutting their throats, so there would be very little blood pressure involved. Isn't that why the medical opinion was that there would not necessarily be blood on the perpetrator?

Best regards, George

[Doctored Whatsit]

BUT...there is another policeman who passe alpong Bucks Row around the same time as PC Neil at approximately 3.15am; PS Kirby.


So I will ask for yet again...where did Kirby go? And why isn't he involved in the discussion?

I find the idea that all focus is put onto Lechmere to be peculiar, when PS Kirby seems to have been a ghost for the duration of the time between him passing through Bucks Rows, to the point the scene is swamped with various other individuals from the nearby slaughter house etc...

We know of Neil, Thain and Mizen's beats relative to each other, but what about PS Kirby? He was there and yet he's passed over.


Thoughts?

I think that PS Kirby, as a sgt, didn't have a beat to patrol, but was merely ensuring that his PCs were doing their jobs properly, and was available to liaise, advise, or as back-up in the event of trouble. He was probably deemed to have no information of value for the inquest. He could probably only say something like he believed that the relevant PCs were where they said they were, when they claimed to be there.

[The Rookie Detective]

I think that PS Kirby, as a sgt, didn't have a beat to patrol, but was merely ensuring that his PCs were doing their jobs properly, and was available to liaise, advise, or as back-up in the event of trouble. He was probably deemed to have no information of value for the inquest. He could probably only say something like he believed that the relevant PCs were where they said they were, when they claimed to be there.

That's excellent and thank you for replying to that.

That makes sense. The only question is where was HE when he was checking up on the PC's?

If he didn't have a specific beat, then that raises the possibility that he could have been anywhere and that the assumption that he passed by at 3.15am may not be the full picture.

He may have no relevance whatsoever, but because he may of had no beat of his own, it means he was free to be anywhere in space and time relative to the murder.

Do we have any evidence of where he was between 3.15am to 3.45am?

We know the beats of the PC's but if he doesn't have a specific beat then surely that makes him more questionable?

Just a thought

[Herlock Sholmes]

This is what I think happened with approximate times. I can’t see anything from the evidence that casts a single doubt on this simple version.

3.33 - Charles Cross leaves his house for work.

3.39 - The killer meets Nichols in Bucks Row and kills her.

3.41 - Cross enters Bucks Row - the killer, hearing his approach, escapes. (As the killer isn’t at work he’s wearing soft soles shoes and so makes little or no noise) - alternatively the killer flees after being spooked by some other noise just before Cross gets there.

3.42 - Cross discovers the body and just then he hears someone approaching. He decides to wait for him to arrive before approaching the body. He doesn’t know if she’s been attacked in some way so he’s wary of being accused of being involved. Either that, or he was simply nervous about approaching what could have been a corpse.

3.42 - Robert Paul arrives. They check the body but see no injuries due to the poor lighting. Cross suspects that the woman is dead but Paul feels that she might still be alive. They both want to get to work so they agree to speak to the first Constable that they see on the way. Their thinking…..If she was dead nothing could be done for her; if she was drunk….so what?

3.45 - Both men run into Mizen who is engaged in ‘knocking up.’ Cross tells him that he’s wanted in Bucks Row as a woman was lying either dead or drunk. A distracted Mizen only hears the word ‘drunk,’ and mistakenly assumes that when Cross tells him that he is ‘wanted’ in Bucks Row that he’d meant ‘by a Constable.’ This appears to make sense to him as he probably knew that Neil was due around that time (maybe he’d done that beat too?)

3.45 - Neil arrives in Bucks Row and finds the body. After seeing that her throat was cut he signalled the passing Thain.

3.46 - Thain arrived on the scene. Neil sends him for a Doctor.

3.47 - After completing his ‘knocking up’ Mizen arrives on the scene and Neil sends him for the ambulance.

4.00 - Dr. Llewellyn arrives in Bucks Row.

Where is the mystery?

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff,

This is from the Chapman inquest:

The Foreman: Is there anything to indicate that the crime in the case of the woman Nicholls was perpetrated with the same object as this?
The Coroner: There is a difference in this respect, at all events, that the medical expert is of opinion that, in the case of Nicholls, the mutilations were made first.

Of course it is only an opinion by the medical expert, but it could also be an explanation as to why Lechmere didn't just leave. If this were his first murder and the throat cutting was not yet part of his ritual, he may have been about to depart when Polly showed signs of regaining consciousness. By the time he decide to cut her throat, and did so, to eliminate her identifying him, Paul may have been too close for him to scarper.

I'm no expert on the matter, but it is my understanding that the Ripper strangled the victims before cutting their throats, so there would be very little blood pressure involved. Isn't that why the medical opinion was that there would not necessarily be blood on the perpetrator?

Best regards, George

Hi George,

I do find it unlikely that who ever kills Nichols would cut the throat after the mutilations. And without knowing upon what basis that inference was made by the doctor, it is hard to evaluate. Of course, we also had the left handed killer from Polly's murder, which eventually gets rejected as the series progresses. I think, given this was the first mutilation murder, the lack of experience in dealing with this sort of thing probably means some of the medical opinions along such lines may be a bit shakey?

In a way I suppose it doesn't matter the order. I think, though, if he cuts the throat when disturbed to avoid her identifying him, it then seems odd that he sticks around at all. How does he know the fellow approaching hasn't already seen him moving about in the dark, etc? That also applies if he cuts the throat first.

- Jeff

[The Rookie Detective]

This is what I think happened with approximate times. I can’t see anything from the evidence that casts a single doubt on this simple version.

3.33 - Charles Cross leaves his house for work.

3.39 - The killer meets Nichols in Bucks Row and kills her.

3.41 - Cross enters Bucks Row - the killer, hearing his approach, escapes. (As the killer isn’t at work he’s wearing soft soles shoes and so makes little or no noise) - alternatively the killer flees after being spooked by some other noise just before Cross gets there.

3.42 - Cross discovers the body and just then he hears someone approaching. He decides to wait for him to arrive before approaching the body. He doesn’t know if she’s been attacked in some way so he’s wary of being accused of being involved. Either that, or he was simply nervous about approaching what could have been a corpse.

3.42 - Robert Paul arrives. They check the body but see no injuries due to the poor lighting. Cross suspects that the woman is dead but Paul feels that she might still be alive. They both want to get to work so they agree to speak to the first Constable that they see on the way. Their thinking…..If she was dead nothing could be done for her; if she was drunk….so what?

3.45 - Both men run into Mizen who is engaged in ‘knocking up.’ Cross tells him that he’s wanted in Bucks Row as a woman was lying either dead or drunk. A distracted Mizen only hears the word ‘drunk,’ and mistakenly assumes that when Cross tells him that he is ‘wanted’ in Bucks Row that he’d meant ‘by a Constable.’ This appears to make sense to him as he probably knew that Neil was due around that time (maybe he’d done that beat too?)

3.45 - Neil arrives in Bucks Row and finds the body. After seeing that her throat was cut he signalled the passing Thain.

3.46 - Thain arrived on the scene. Neil sends him for a Doctor.

3.47 - After completing his ‘knocking up’ Mizen arrives on the scene and Neil sends him for the ambulance.

4.00 - Dr. Llewellyn arrives in Bucks Row.

Where is the mystery?

Herlock, you're undoubtedly brilliant and one of the very best minds working this case, but I would just like to counter your timings slightly...

Lechmere would have arrived in Bucks Row around 3.37am and so based on your own version of the times (based as you say on the evidence) it appears to inadvertently play into the hands of those who believe Lechmere responsible for slaying Nichols.

I say this because if based on your timings the real killer enters Bucks Row at 3.39am, Lechmere would have been there and that just doesn't work.

Bearing in mind I believe Lechmere to be INNOCENT, I feel the only way he can be innocent is if the real killer has left Bucks Row BEFORE 3.36am.

If he's there any later then Lechmere would have seen, heard or seen Nichol's and the killer enter Bucks Row themselves.

The one witness who is always overlooked is Mrs Lilley who heard moans, voices outside the window and the train passing by.

This occured around 3.30am and fits perfectly for Lechmere arriving just a couple of minutes AFTER the killer left.

By stating that the killer arrived at 3.39am, it makes Lechmere the killer.

Now the later killing time you suggest DOES work perfectly with the blood and both Pc Neil AND Pc Mizen, but something doesn't add up.

The mystery is that the murder couldn't have taken place after 3.35am, unless Lechmere left later than 3.30am and Mrs Lilley made it all up or was mistaken about her timings.
She recalls the train passing by and that's not something that a person who invents a story would be likely to mention.

Why can't the murder have occured between 3.28 and 3.35am?
The only thing that challenged that is the blood loss reported by 2 separate policeman.

If they were correct about their observations then the murder is likely to have occurred later...which makes Lechmere much more of a suspect.

Respectfully I feel your listed timings have played into the hands of those who favour Lechmere.

Thought please?

[Herlock Sholmes]

Herlock, you're undoubtedly brilliant and one of the very best minds working this case, but I would just like to counter your timings slightly...

Lechmere would have arrived in Bucks Row around 3.37am and so based on your own version of the times (based as you say on the evidence) it appears to inadvertently play into the hands of those who believe Lechmere responsible for slaying Nichols.

I say this because if based on your timings the real killer enters Bucks Row at 3.39am, Lechmere would have been there and that just doesn't work.

Bearing in mind I believe Lechmere to be INNOCENT, I feel the only way he can be innocent is if the real killer has left Bucks Row BEFORE 3.36am.

If he's there any later then Lechmere would have seen, heard or seen Nichol's and the killer enter Bucks Row themselves.

The one witness who is always overlooked is Mrs Lilley who heard moans, voices outside the window and the train passing by.

This occured around 3.30am and fits perfectly for Lechmere arriving just a couple of minutes AFTER the killer left.

By stating that the killer arrived at 3.39am, it makes Lechmere the killer.

Now the later killing time you suggest DOES work perfectly with the blood and both Pc Neil AND Pc Mizen, but something doesn't add up.

The mystery is that the murder couldn't have taken place after 3.35am, unless Lechmere left later than 3.30am and Mrs Lilley made it all up or was mistaken about her timings.
She recalls the train passing by and that's not something that a person who invents a story would be likely to mention.

Why can't the murder have occured between 3.28 and 3.35am?
The only thing that challenged that is the blood loss reported by 2 separate policeman.

If they were correct about their observations then the murder is likely to have occurred later...which makes Lechmere much more of a suspect.

Respectfully I feel your listed timings have played into the hands of those who favour Lechmere.

Thought please?

I don’t understand why you say that Cross would have arrived in Bucks Row around 3.37 RD?

[Elamarna]

Excellent post and good to see the use of maths and science when looking at this particular murder.

I must say that I find it difficult to believe that Lechmere is the killer based on all of the available evidence.

However, for the sake of balance.. what's the likelihood of both PC Neil and PC Mizen being wrong about observing blood flowing under pressure?

As you state clearly, the likelihood of Mizen observing blood under pressure is as close to impossible as you can get and when coupled with PC Neil claiming similar prior to Mizen, wouldn't that suggest that the murder occurred later?

And strengthen the argument that Lechmere was the killer?

Now as I say, I personally believe the murder occurred at 3.30am and that the killer had left Bucks Row by 3.35am...BUT...

Can both Neil and Mizen be mistaken?

Neiher are mistaken, it's simply that some wish to interpret the evidence in a way that fits their theory.

Both men see what I call "passive bleeding" some might say under gravity rather than under pressure.
That is bleeding at a very slow rate, after the heart as stopped.
This is why some try and suggest that "oozing" or "oozing profusely" alludes to bleeding under pressure.

Taking the descriptions by both men and the science, we can I believe say as confidently as possible that neither man sees bleeding under pressure.

We then of course have the attempt to suggest that passive bleeding can only occur for a set period. Such is of course not the case.

Surely it also makes PC Neil more suspicious in terms of time frame?

BUT...there is another policeman who passe alpong Bucks Row around the same time as PC Neil at approximately 3.15am; PS Kirby.


So I will ask for yet again...where did Kirby go? And why isn't he involved in the discussion?


I find the idea that all focus is put onto Lechmere to be peculiar, when PS Kirby seems to have been a ghost for the duration of the time between him passing through Bucks Rows, to the point the scene is swamped with various other individuals from the nearby slaughter house etc...

We know of Neil, Thain and Mizen's beats relative to each other, but what about PS Kirby? He was there and yet he's passed over.

If Neil and Mizen seem to inadvertently support a later killing time, then that makes Lechmere, Paul, PC Neil, PC Mizen and PS Kirby ALL persons of interest.

I think you are misunderstanding Kirby's role.
His role was to check on the police beats in his section of Bucks Row, so after his trip down Bucks Row at approx 3.15, he would have gone on to another beat.

He then arrives back at the scene sometime after Neil, finds the body. Some researchers suggest this is with Mizen, when he arrives back with the ambulance, others that it's while Llewellyn is examing the body.

At any event, reports of the inquest on 2nd ( Lloyds Weekly) and the 3rd(Daily Telegraph, Evening Standard, Daily News, Morning Advertiser and others) state that he was he who knocked on Essex Whalf, and it's possible he also spoke to Mrs Green.

Sergeant Kirby was the senior officer on site, and he apparently failed to keep onlookers away or to insist that the body remained until an Inspector arrived.

I see no reason to look at Kirby as a person of interest, nor Neil, and Certainly not Mizen, who is in a different division.

Ultimately, if science and math support a bleed-out time under pressure of less than 8 to 10 minutes, then how can we dismiss anyone of the above?

For all the above to be innocent, the real Killer HAD to have left Nichols no later than 3.36am and so the cuts to her throat MUST have been made no later than 3.35am. That's a definitive parameter.

Because if the cuts were made AFTER 3.36am, then it must have been Lechmere (or Neil) or the elusive Kirby.

RD, you are making the mistake of attempting to provide absolute timings, that is one reason why the Lechmere theory in my view is flawed.
We simply cannot apply absolute times, as we have no idea if anyone was syncronizied to GMT or to each other.

But let's look at your statement anyway, I see no reason to say that if the cuts occurred after 3.36 it MUST have been x.

Lets assume Lech and Paul arrived 2 - 3 minutes after the cut, the heart may still just be beating or may have already failed, that leaves plenty of time 2-3 minutes for the killer to have left.

I DO NOT believe Lechmere is the killer, BUT when 2 police officers claim to see blood coming out under pressure, we need to work out if the Math and Science support them or make them look incompetent as officers.


Thoughts?

And this is the IMPORTANT issue. NEITHER officer does actually claim to see bleeding under pressure.
That is simply an interpretation by those wish it to be under pressure.

We need to look at the statements actually made, NOT what others tell us they say and mean.

Hope that helps

Steve