Charles Lechmere interesting link

[Fisherman]

Putting it differently, I would prefer a map with the red areas following his working routes, drifting off into yellow and green as we move away sideways from these routes.

The circle shape is based on the thought that the killer had a lair he worked from, walking off in all directions from this centre to make it harder to detect him.

But with somebody who killed en route to work, a circle will not represent the true centre of such a killers actions, since that centre would be street-shaped and as long as his work trek was.

And I don´t think he made an effort to obfuscate this street centre of his.

If that makes sense?

The best,
Fisherman

[The Good Michael]

Fish,

I don't think that's correct. It's an ellipsis based on the idea that most serial killers didn't (or don't) stray too far from their comfort zone. I would say that's especially true for those times. Colin has configured the ellipsis based upon the canonical kills, and even if one throws in Tabram and Horsnail, it doesn't change very much. Of course the murderer's dwelling place would be more likely to be in the red zone, but that isn't necessarily the case. The killer would have been most comfortable killing within all the zones and the idea of radiating out from a central area as if they were spokes on a wheel, would have to do with many factors including his familiarity of an area (which would be more than likely equitably spread out in principle), and the access to areas via streets, alleys, lanes, and courts. It would have nothing to do with going to and from work for a serial killer most likely.

If I misrepresented Colin, I apologize. I am no expert (or even beginner) on this kind of modeling.

Mike

[The Good Michael]

oops. So the idea of a lair is secondary to the kill zone. But it is sensible and a very useful profile.

Mike

[Fisherman]

oops. So the idea of a lair is secondary to the kill zone. But it is sensible and a very useful profile.

Mike

Yup. I think that the special circumstances attaching to Lechmere - his having moved to Doveton Street just a few weeks earlier, not least - must be weighed in.
The "lair" as such would - if I am correct - not be best represented by his Doveton Street lodgings, but instead by his routes to work. His comfort zone stretched out around Hanbury Street and Old Montague Street.

Further, if we for theories sake work from the assumption that he left home at a time that was roughly tied to his need to get to Pickfords when work started, I don´t see him having all that much time to stray far from his working trek routes.

We assume that he wished to hide what he did from his wife as best as he could (as implicated by how he presented himself at the inquest, both vocally and clothes-wise), and walking off an hour earlier than he needed to would not sit well with such a wish.

I therefore reason that he did not have very much time on his hands, and so he needed to find his victims along streets that allowed him to keep up.

A lot of supposition, I know, but supposition that is logical enough to me.

All the best,
Fisherman

[MrBarnett]

Fish,

And to complicate things even further, if a lair is a place of refuge, then Lech had two, home and Pickfords.

MrB

[Fisherman]

Fish,

And to complicate things even further, if a lair is a place of refuge, then Lech had two, home and Pickfords.

MrB

True. I´d go so far as to say that these lairs - Pickfords and his home at Doveton Street - were mainly just places of refuge, and not the true centres of his actions. That would instead have been the working trek routes. That, I think, was where he would have felt at ease, out of his domestic zone and in his killing comfort zone.

The best,
Fisherman

[Patrick S]

Agreed. And here´s something to ponder:

We all, you, me and Colin, think (if I am not very mistaken) that Charles Lechmere is an interesting bid for the killers role.

I don't think many people with a genuine interest in the murders would disagree with this statement, Fish. However, this is certainly not how you and your charming associate, Eddie "Lechmere", have represented things, is it? The reality is that you have explicitly stated that its a near certainty: Charles Lechmere was Jack the Ripper (and the Torso Killer, for that matter). Going further, I don't think it stretches credulity to say that you and your gun moll (or visa versa), the endlessly considerate and patient, Edward "Don't Call Him Cross or I'll be Cross" Stow, have conducted debate in a way that might lead one to believe that Lechmere was - without a shadow of doubt - guilty of nearly every murder committed in the East End from 1875 through 1920.

Its really too bad. This whole business you're on about is fascinating, and you and your underling (or visa versa) Ed "Don't Call me Jack" The Knife, have done commendable work. Sadly, you two have refused to be patient in drawing conclusions (which research of this kind absolutely requires) while conducting yourselves in such a confrontational, brutish manner as to alienate even those who came to this subject interested and open.

[Colin Roberts]

This fascinates me. The way I read it, the killer himself selects hunting grounds in an attempt to create variability and disguise his home location. To what extent is this a conscious decision?

... Given enough kills the region could be potentially discovered by the boundaries, but unless the dope (which he wouldn't be if he did this) created the region to center around his location the hunting grounds would not yield any information as to his home base.

In the absence of geographic, (potential-victim) demographic and time constraints, but in the knowledge that their trade was illegal, I would think that most hunters would instinctively and therefore subconsciously radiate in sequentially alternating directions.

It is the ones that come into the area from somewhat far afield, and who then radiate from some sort of anchor that keep us all guessing.

... the murderer's dwelling place would be more likely to be in the red zone, but that isn't necessarily the case.

The red isopleth represents ten percentage points of the overall probability distribution, as do each of the others: orange, yellow, yellow-green, green.


Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Fifty Percent Accumulation (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011[/QUOTE]

50%

The model would therefore suggest that 'Jack the Ripper' was just as likely to have lived within the area that is color-shaded by the outer green isopleth as he was to have lived within the area that is color-shaded by the inner red isopleth. But as the inner red isopleth is much smaller, the model would suggest that a particular dwelling that was situated therein would have been a more likely place of residence for our perpetrator than would a particular dwelling that was situated within the outer green isopleth.

Put simply: the suggested probabilities are the same for each of the color-shaded isopleths, but the suggested probability densities are greatest in the center.

Put more simply (I hope): the total volume of rainfall is the same in each of the color-shaded regions, but the concentration of rainfall is greatest in the center.


Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Seventy Percent Accumulation (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

70%


Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Ninety Percent Accumulation (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

90%


Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Fifty Percent Accumulation [Plus Contour Depiction of Extent of Two Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Yellow)] (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

Yellow Contour: The extent of two standard deviations from the murder-site mean-center
Yellow Dot: The 1888 residence of Charles Lechmere; 22 Doveton Street, Hamlet of Mile End Old Town

Lechmere's 1888 residence would fall just within the 58th-60th percentile of the overall probability distribution.

That said: It would be foolhardy to write him off on the basis of geography; especially when considering the fact that he traversed the major axis of the observed killing field as a matter of daily routine.

I must now excuse myself from the discussion.

Thank You All & Good Luck!

[Colin Roberts]

Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Fifty Percent Accumulation [Plus Contour Depiction of Extent of Two Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Yellow)] (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

Yellow Contour: The extent of two standard deviations from the murder-site mean-center
Yellow Dot: The 1888 residence of Charles Lechmere; 22 Doveton Street, Hamlet of Mile End Old Town

Lechmere's 1888 residence would fall just within the 58th-60th percentile of the overall probability distribution.

Oooops!

I must be getting senile.

Lechmere's 1888 residence would fall just within the inner 58 to 60 percentage points of the overall probability distribution; i.e. the 40th-42nd percentile.

But again, it would be foolhardy to write him off on the basis of geography; especially when considering the fact that he traversed the major axis of the observed killing field as a matter of daily routine.

---

One other quick point, and then I really must be getting back to the real world:

This model is rather rudimentary and is in need of certain revisions. Perhaps one day I will have the necessary amount time with which to make them:

1.) A weighted murder-site factorization, e.g. …

- Tabram: 9/16, i.e. 56.25%
- Nichols: 15/16, i.e. 93.75%
- Chapman: 1/1, i.e. 100.00%
- Stride: 11/16, i.e. 68.75%
- Eddowes: 7/8, i.e. 87.50%
- Kelly: 3/4, i.e. 75.00%

2.) An accommodation of elliptical skew along both the major and minor axes, manifesting in a very slight stretch from the center - in the general direction of the Nichols murder-site, and a very slight stretch from the center - in the general direction of the Chapman murder-site. The contours would then take on the shape of an egg that was slightly flattened on one side.

3.) A perceived 'mode' point of central tendency, rather than a calculated 'mean' point of central tendency. This would shift the center of the probability distribution from the southwest corner of the intersection of Wentworth Street and Osborn Street, in the Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel, toward the southeast corner of the intersection of Thrawl Street and George Street, in the Parish of Christ Church Spitalfields. It would also rotate the distribution a few degrees in the clockwise direction, so that its major axis would be somewhat more parallel to the Aldgate High Street / Whitechapel High Street / Whitechapel Road thoroughfare.

4.) A factored tendency for the distribution to become increasingly more circular beyond the extent of two standard deviations.

Now, I really must go!

[miss marple]

It like watching a planet exploding into a back hole. Its getting painful to read now.

'This is the end' 'No safety or surprise, the end'

Miss Marple

[Rob1n]

Lechmere/Cross

Right, I have walked this route many times, his route through Bucks row is a logical one, he has good reason to be at the murders sites at these times of the day so perhaps he is Jack but, what I've missed amongst all of these posts is, why did he stop killing.

There is so much interesting information here and I thank all contributors but I'm losing the will to live let alone search for the answers as to why he stopped.

[Fisherman]

Right, I have walked this route many times, his route through Bucks row is a logical one, he has good reason to be at the murders sites at these times of the day so perhaps he is Jack but, what I've missed amongst all of these posts is, why did he stop killing.

There is so much interesting information here and I thank all contributors but I'm losing the will to live let alone search for the answers as to why he stopped.

It is my belief that Charles Lechmere was not only the Ripper but also the Thames torso killer. There are numerous common traits inbetween the two seris, and I find it beyond belief that there would have been two serial killers around in the same town at roughly the same time, both being eviscerators who cut from sternum to pubes, who both took out various organs from their victims, sexual as well as non-sexual, who both cut away the abdominal walls from their victims, who both took rings from the fingers of their victims and who both cut out sections of the colons of their victims. It just won´t happen unless we are dealing with the same man.
This takes us back to 1873, when Lechmere was around 24 years old. It also takes us to 1889, but I think that there are other murders too that may have been coupled to him, leading all the way up to 1898.
All in all, we would be looking at a span of a quarter of a decade if this holds true.

Maybe that can boost your will to live?

[Rob1n]

Totally agree with you, highly unlikely that the same methods would be used by more than one killer and at exactly the same time.

I believe he was the killer, one day perhaps it will be proved, can you tell me why he stopped though?

[Rob1n]

Isn't it true to say that, whilst a murderer has a comfort zone he/she has a need to revisit the murder?

A kind of morbid need to see and feel or re-live the moment, to watch the interest, I would imagine that Lechmere might well have stood by and watched the public interest in his "work".

[Fisherman]

Totally agree with you, highly unlikely that the same methods would be used by more than one killer and at exactly the same time.

I believe he was the killer, one day perhaps it will be proved, can you tell me why he stopped though?

I think most serialists who stop - and I am convinced that they DO stop sooner or later if they are not caught and get to live to old age - do so on account of loosing the drive that originally set them off. The deciding factor, I believe, is tightly knit to sexuality. When it tapers off, so does the killing.

In Lechmere´s case, there are murders that may have been his up til 1898 - and beyond. There are cases beyond the 1900 year mark that look promising too. I will not go into them here, though.