Originally posted by Patrick S
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So your reasoning is working from faulty assumptions. Surely, the more clever and bold a serial killer is, the better chances he will stand to get away with things, but we can all see that if Lechmere was the killer, then he had a lot of luck too. Intelligence, boldness and a quick mind will only take you so far, and after that it is up to chance. Which is why some serial killers who really are not very clever (like Chase and West, for example) manage to get away with things for a long time, while others, clever as they come, have their cars stopped and searched for no reason at all, and they go down.
Where you get it from that Lechmere seems to have anticipated things, I don't know. To me, it is the other way around. If he HAD anticipated Paul coming along, he would not kill Nichols. If he HAD anticipated that Paul would opt for searching out a PC, he would perhaps not have stayed at the site.
It is a game that involves chance taking, rather than anticipation. It is not about being proactive, it is about getting your act together as best as you can when things that cannot be foreseen happen.
It is always likelier that a person will not be a serial killer than the opposite. That goes without saying. But when a serial killer is claiming prey, and a person who has been at a murder site has many points that do not look good at all, then the time may well have come to reconsider. Putting it the Scobie way, "When the coincidences add up - mount up, and they do in his case - it becomes one coincidence too many." Which is exactly what rules how the police think - or SHOULD think - in a case like this.
You are perfectly correct in you supposition that I don't agree with you, at least not when it comes to the question of whether it is likely or not that the carman killed Nichols. I'm sure that there are other things we may agree on in the case, though. My "willingness to engage" is kind of waning, I'm afraid, but not my passion about the topic. Hopefully, that will keep me afloat.
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