Can George Chapmam reform himself to being a calculating poisoner seven years later?.

[Batman]

The multiple killer hypothesis assumes no deviation at all. For example, Chapman and Eddowes are by different hands. Stride a complete anamoly. Yet we know from examples that the variation from known offenders and their MO/ritual/signature can account for it. So there is no need for the multi killer hypothesis.

Its got nothing to do Chapman being innocent or not of JtR. Why its appearing here with lessons in philosophy I don't know, nor see its relevance at all.

The question is can a signature vary? That's all. I don't see any specificity about lust killers being able to vary in your refs.

[c.d.]

Whoa! Damn, people over analyze things on these boards. Way too much discussion of M.O. and Signature. People are getting hung up on semantics and psycho-babble not to mention philosophy and numerous studies. Maybe we need to simplify things a bit -- is it possible to go from cutting throats to poisoning? Clearly the answer is yes. Is it common to do so? Clearly the answer is no. Now here is the bottom line question - is there anything that would prevent Chapman from doing so if he so decided? The answer as far as I can tell is no. It all seems pretty straightforward (with all respect to David Hume).

c.d.

[Batman]

I agree.

I think one has to accept that not everyone is going to be entirely dissuaded by Helena's book. Even though Helena has dispelled some myths about Chapman, we have a history of other books with myths about the individuals we know are guilty. There is nothing wrong with research continuing to correct that.

Let's face it. The only person who put himself into the frame as a possible JtR candidate was Klosowski himself. Not a book writer. Not an investigator. Not a reporter.

He did this by murdering his GFs in Whitechapel, having lived at George's St., where two Whitechapel murder victims died. If caught it would be outright impossible to avoid these connections coming up, which they did.

Maybe Chapman had a legit reason not to want to be known as Klosowski. Maybe, even though he is not Jewish, someone would make the connection to Lipski, another poisoner, and its curtains for him from the jury. Maybe Klosowski being foreign sounding compared to Chapman would have biased the jury.

Here is the type of question I would ask if I thought Chapman innocent - If there was a connection to Tabram because of an investigation, then why don't we know about this from the investigators at the time? Surely someone would have pursued it by just looking up files on Klosowski interviewed in relation to Tabram. So if it was there, we would know about that unless they failed in their duties as investigators. However maybe it wasn't this connection he wanted to hide, but something else. On second thoughts maybe it was just the residential connection he wanted to hide.

[Batman]

No size comparison = Whitechapel < West Yorkshire

The reason Chapman denied being Klosowski could be that he wanted to pretend he had no medical knowledge (e.g. of poisons).

John: "Harold Shipman was living and working in West Yorkshire during the same period that Sutcliffe was active in the same area" GOOD POINT!


Helena

I just realized that this comparison is a red herring.

West Yorkshire is 2,029 km2
London is 1,572 km2
Whitechapel is probably what 3km x 3km max? That's 9 km2.

You can fit approx. 250 Whitechapels into West Yorkshire with those figures.

Now what's that got to say about the odds of 2 serial killers operating in Whitechapel?

[John G]

I just realized that this comparison is a red herring.

West Yorkshire is 2,029 km2
London is 1,572 km2
Whitechapel is probably what 3km x 3km max? That's 9 km2.

You can fit approx. 250 Whitechapels into West Yorkshire with those figures.

Now what's that got to say about the odds of 2 serial killers operating in Whitechapel?

It's hardly a red herring, West Yorkshire is a small county, just slightly bigger geographically than Houston, Texas! Anyway, both Shipman and Sutcliffe murdered in the Manchester area so there's another comparison. Oh, and the Torso Murderer also operated in Whitechapel at the same time as JtR so there's another. I'm sure there are many more particularly, as you said yourself, poisoners are fairly prolific. Oh, Neil Cream operating at the same time as Chapman, there's another! I'd also point out that Chapman was not poisoning at the same time JtR was active-so there's another red herring! And who knows how many other killer's were operating in Whitechapel during the 1880s and 1890s- I mean, who killed Smith, Haynes, Austin, MacKenzie, Coles. Oh wait a minute, they were all killed by Chapman! Silly me!

[Batman]

The importance of 'n'

It's hardly a red herring, West Yorkshire is a small county, just slightly bigger geographically than Houston, Texas! .........

Your geographical sample sizes are worlds apart. That alone is enough to demonstrate a problem with the correlation you are making.

For every 1km2 in Whitechapel, your sample has 250km2.

Its like comparing 2 (Whitechapel) baby birth weights to 500 (west yorkshire) baby birth weights to find a correlation with some common factor in their mothers.

That's what we call a confounding variable. A basic problem found in statistics and the importance of 'n' to overcome them.

What you actually needed was either JtR to operate in a 2000km2 square area or... Shipman/Sutcliffe operating in a <12km area. That way your sample values are even.

(these are still large values, km2)

In fact, if your own view holds true, that you need large geographical samples sizes to find multiple serial killers, then the very small geographical sample size with one known serial killer means what? It means it is unlikely serial killings done in the area where done by someone else.

It seems your own Shipman/Sutcliffe point has much more wider reaching ramifications for Chapman as a suspect than you thought it would.

[John G]

Your geographical sample sizes are worlds apart. That alone is enough to demonstrate a problem with the correlation you are making.

For every 1km2 in Whitechapel, your sample has 250km2.

Its like comparing 2500 (west yorkshire) baby birth weights to 250 (Whitechapel) baby birth weights to find a correlation with some common factor in their mothers.

That's what we call a confounding variable in the basic problems found in statistics and the importance of 'n' to overcome them.

In fact, if your own view holds true, that you need large geographical samples sizes to find multiple serial killers, then the very small geographical sample size with one known serial killer means what? It means it is unlikely serial killings done in the area where done by someone else.

It seems your own Shipman/Sutcliffe point has much more wider reaching ramifications for Chapman as a suspect than you thought it would.

I have absolutely no idea what this post means! Anyway, what about the Torso killer operating at the same time as JtR? Anyway, how on earth does a mutilater correlate with a poisoner?

[Batman]

You replied before I edited it. Try again.

[John G]

You replied before I edited it. Try again.

Okay, how does a mutilater correlate with a poisoner? What about the Torso Killer operating at the same time as JtR? Who killed Smith, Haynes, McKenzie, Coles, Austin? Might this not suggest the possibility of yet another serial killer operating in Whitechapel at the same time?

[Batman]

Okay, how does a mutilater correlate with a poisoner? What about the Torso Killer operating at the same time as JtR? Who killed Smith, Haynes, McKenzie, Coles, Austin? Might this not suggest the possibility of yet another serial killer operating in Whitechapel at the same time?

Right, so you get the problem with sample size comparisons being radically different.

Serial killers can coexist with other non-serial killing homicides.

Lust killers share many traits with poisoners. Control over life and death etc. There is nothing to say JtR can't stop and continue later or commit crimes in the meantime, especially if a criminal investigation gets close, they can deliberately change their MO to conceal the connection.

What's more interesting to me is your own example requires significant large geographical sample sizes compared to the small geographical sample size of Whitechapel to invoke two serial killers operating in the same place at the same time. This is consistent with the view that it is very odd to find a serial killer identified in a small area who isn't responsible for other serial killer crimes in the same small area. Your point actually indicates they are likely responsible.

[John G]

Right, so you get the problem with sample size comparisons being radically different.

Serial killers can coexist with other non-serial killing homicides.

Lust killers share many traits with poisoners. Control over life and death etc. There is nothing to say JtR can't stop and continue later or commit crimes in the meantime, especially if a criminal investigation gets close, they can deliberately change their MO to conceal the connection.

What's more interesting to me is your own example requires significant large geographical sample sizes compared to the small geographical sample size of Whitechapel to invoke two serial killers operating in the same place at the same time. This is consistent with the view that it is very odd to find a serial killer identified in a small area who isn't responsible for other serial killer crimes. Your point actually indicates they are likely responsible.

Sex killers and poisoners are totally different! The Torso Killer was operating at the same time as JtR which, I'm afraid, is also fatal to your hypothesis. Changing from a sex killer to a poisoner requires a change of signature as I've fully explained about a dozen times now: see post 322

[Batman]

Sex killers and poisoners are totally different! The Torso Killer was operating at the same time as JtR which, I'm afraid, is also fatal to your hypothesis. Changing from a sex killer to a poisoner requires a change of signature as I've fully explained about a dozen times now.

One must remember that pulling body parts from the Thames is nothing new, for several reasons, including the fact that archaeologically it has been a dump site for body and body parts throughout the ages. Since there is good reason to link the Thames Torso Murders of 1887-89 to JtR (for example the 3 abdominal flap removal of Chapman, Kelly and 2 for Jackson + sexual mutilation) it isn't going to be fatal at all. Far from it.

As your own point about Shipman/Sutcliffe well demonstrates, two serial killers operating in a small area over a short period of time is unexampled. You need greater geographical samples sizes to capture what you want.

[John G]

One must remember that pulling body parts from the Thames is nothing new, for several reasons, including the fact that archaeologically it has been a dump site for body and body parts throughout the ages. Since there is good reason to link the Thames Torso Murders of 1887-89 to JtR (for example the 3 abdominal flap removal of Chapman, Kelly and 2 for Jackson + sexual mutilation) it isn't going to be fatal at all. Far from it.

As your own point about Shipman/Sutcliffe well demonstrates, two serial killers operating in a small area over a short period of time is unexampled. You need greater geographical samples sizes to capture what you want.

What about the Torso Murders of 1871 and 1873? What about the Torso Murder of 1884? You're being selective in order to support your rapidly disintegrating hypothesis! How does a poisoner correlate with a violent sex killer? The Torso Murderer didn't kill in Whitechapel, which blows out of the water your argument that JtR's murders were Whitechapel-centered, assuming that Torso and JtR were the same killer, which they obviously weren't!

Can I, respectfully, suggest that you switch focus to Frances Thompson. Now he's a really serious suspect-take a look at Richard's posts.

[Batman]

The block your talking about doesn't exist. Chapman can do whatever he wants, however he wants, in what ever way he wants and plainly does so as we can see.

There have been many body parts in that river as Trow explains and as has been already been explained, a serial killer can coexist with non-serial killer homicides and other crimes.

[c.d.]

Sex killers and poisoners are totally different! The Torso Killer was operating at the same time as JtR which, I'm afraid, is also fatal to your hypothesis. Changing from a sex killer to a poisoner requires a change of signature as I've fully explained about a dozen times now: see post 322

Hello John G,

But they are still both killers. That point seems to get overlooked and it is far from being a minor point. And why can't a signature be changed? Yes, it is unusual but would it require violating the laws of physics like traveling faster than the speed of light? Profiling and all that it entails is far from an exact science.

c.d.