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  • Suspect breakdown

    I would be curious to know how you break down the possibility of suspects for JtR. In my view, I break it down as thus: 60% chance-unknown/unamed person. As in their name has never surfaced in any way with the case. 20% chance it was one of my top 5 named suspects: Chapman, Kosminski, Bury, Hutchinson, James Kelly. 20% chance-other possible named suspects, witness, etc. or anyone who's name is associated with the case. for example-Barnett, Lechmere, Bowyer, one of the PC's, etc.
    How do you see it?

  • #2
    Originally posted by victornguyen View Post
    I would be curious to know how you break down the possibility of suspects for JtR. In my view, I break it down as thus: 60% chance-unknown/unamed person. As in their name has never surfaced in any way with the case. 20% chance it was one of my top 5 named suspects: Chapman, Kosminski, Bury, Hutchinson, James Kelly. 20% chance-other possible named suspects, witness, etc. or anyone who's name is associated with the case. for example-Barnett, Lechmere, Bowyer, one of the PC's, etc.
    How do you see it?
    I got it 60% chance my top tier suspects: Blotchy, hutch, bury, Koz, chapman, Kelly.
    20% any other named suspect, POI, witness, police etc.
    20% unknown/unsub/unamed
    "Is all that we see or seem
    but a dream within a dream?"

    -Edgar Allan Poe


    "...the man and the peaked cap he is said to have worn
    quite tallies with the descriptions I got of him."

    -Frederick G. Abberline

    Comment


    • #3
      I think there's a very good chance JtR was spotted talking with both Chapman and Eddowes, but the description from Mrs. Long of the person she saw talking to Chapman is highly unreliable (she had no real reason to take notice of the encounter and she only saw the man from the back, etc). The description Lawende gave of the man talking with Eddowes is probably closer to the mark as Lawende and his friends took specific note of the couple in the sense that they commented and talked about them briefly. However, as he indicated, he didn't pay a lot of attention and didn't think he would recognize the man again. I think the probability is very high that Lawende's suspect was JtR, and that Mrs. Long saw the same person (but her memory of his description is unreliable), but I also think, due to the failures of human memory and the inaccuracy of eye-witness testimony, that even Lawende's description should be viewed with some caution.

      While I'm willing to say I think the probability is very high, there is always room for the possibility that Lawende and friends misrembered the location and saw an unrelated couple, say further up the street (human memory does that sort of thing, unfortunately), so it's not 100%.

      Just my opinion, yours may differ.

      Comment


      • #4
        I doubt anyone saw him.

        as for % I go probably 70% mr Unknown, for resons of my own I’m a Druittist and put him about 20%, never been a big Tumblety fan, BUT Hawley and friend have found some interesting stuff so I’d maybe give him a couple of %.

        I detest the the trend of trying to turn famous people into suspects when there’s no reason to link them in any way to the crimes.
        G U T

        There are two ways to be fooled, one is to believe what isn't true, the other is to refuse to believe that which is true.

        Comment


        • #5
          I think Bury was Jack but I'm not sure what percentage I would say.

          I also am really not a fan of famous people being turned into suspects or indeed witnesses.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by victornguyen View Post
            I would be curious to know how you break down the possibility of suspects for JtR. In my view, I break it down as thus: 60% chance-unknown/unamed person. As in their name has never surfaced in any way with the case. 20% chance it was one of my top 5 named suspects: Chapman, Kosminski, Bury, Hutchinson, James Kelly. 20% chance-other possible named suspects, witness, etc. or anyone who's name is associated with the case. for example-Barnett, Lechmere, Bowyer, one of the PC's, etc.
            How do you see it?
            On the basis of population numbers/demographics alone, I'd say that the percentage likelihood of JTR's having been an already-named suspect is in the low single figures, possibly 1% or even less. That 1% can be divvied up between a notional "top ten" of known suspects/witnesses if we like, but for every one of those there were hundreds of other men, in Whitechapel alone, who could have been the killer.
            Kind regards, Sam Flynn

            "Suche Nullen" (Nietzsche, Götzendämmerung, 1888)

            Comment


            • #7
              0%: PAV, James Maybrick complete with Diary, Francis Tumbelty, HH Holmes, Montague Druitt, Walter Sickert, Frederick Deeming, Thomas Neil Cream, Dr William Gull, JK Stephen, Lewis Carroll, Sir John Williams, Robert D Stephenson, Charles Cross/Lechmere, Chapman, La Bruckman, JT Sadler.

              50%: An ex-police officer/someone with police connections, Daniel Barnett, Hutch, Blotchy, A doss house manager.

              30%: Kozminski, Bury.

              20%: Cutbush, James Kelly, Joe Barnett.

              Comment


              • #8
                Personally I feel Jack was interviewed by the police at some point, [lived locally]. Possibly after the double murder, 300 interviewed, 80 for further questioning. Probably after Mary, and that notes were taken by a Bobby [routine], and that caused a cessation in the killings. And those notes are probably lost to us now.
                He may have been questioned further, or a hint of suspicion from the copper who interviewed him.
                Much of this like Sutcliffe.
                As for suspects - Man seen by Lawende, Blotchy, Wideawake man, someone who knew or was a client of Mary [not Barnett], someone from the IWEC, Kosminski. And outside bets, Henry Maxwell and the man Elizabeth Prater was waiting for.

                Comment


                • #9
                  As a last thought I also feel Jack did have a bolt hole near Mitre Square [secondary place sort of], and that he also lived centrally to the murders.
                  Last edited by Darryl Kenyon; 02-20-2019, 03:40 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Darryl Kenyon View Post
                    As a last thought I also feel Jack did have a bolt hole near Mitre Square [secondary place sort of], and that he also lived centrally to the murders.
                    whos Henry Maxwell?
                    "Is all that we see or seem
                    but a dream within a dream?"

                    -Edgar Allan Poe


                    "...the man and the peaked cap he is said to have worn
                    quite tallies with the descriptions I got of him."

                    -Frederick G. Abberline

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      first tier suspects-Hutch, Blotchy, chapman, Bury, Koz, james Kelly.

                      second tier-Lechmere, Barnett, Flemming, puckridge, grainger, cutbush, tumblebuns, druitt, Richardson, bowyer, donston, Legrand, levy (barely).

                      any one else is a non starter.

                      I think you have a fairly good chance of finding the ripper amongst these men.
                      "Is all that we see or seem
                      but a dream within a dream?"

                      -Edgar Allan Poe


                      "...the man and the peaked cap he is said to have worn
                      quite tallies with the descriptions I got of him."

                      -Frederick G. Abberline

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Abby Normal View Post

                        whos Henry Maxwell?
                        Caroline Maxwell's husband Abby. He died May 89

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Darryl Kenyon View Post

                          Caroline Maxwell's husband Abby. He died May 89
                          Ok thanks. Thats the maxwell lied about seeing mary in the morning to alibi her husband and something anout a letter theory?
                          "Is all that we see or seem
                          but a dream within a dream?"

                          -Edgar Allan Poe


                          "...the man and the peaked cap he is said to have worn
                          quite tallies with the descriptions I got of him."

                          -Frederick G. Abberline

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post
                            I think there's a very good chance JtR was spotted talking with both Chapman and Eddowes, but the description from Mrs. Long of the person she saw talking to Chapman is highly unreliable (she had no real reason to take notice of the encounter and she only saw the man from the back, etc).
                            But Jeff, you seem to be saying that Lawende did have reason to take particular notice (otherwise, why say Long didn't?), and even then, Lawende only saw the woman from the back too. So how reliable is Lawende's sighting?
                            The police would not let Lawende see the face of the victim, he was only permitted to identify her clothes, which were generally similar.


                            The description Lawende gave of the man talking with Eddowes is probably closer to the mark as Lawende and his friends took specific note of the couple in the sense that they commented and talked about them briefly. However, as he indicated, he didn't pay a lot of attention and didn't think he would recognize the man again.
                            Right, neither of the three men paid particular attention. They had no reason to.

                            I think the probability is very high that Lawende's suspect was JtR,....
                            Given the highly contestable timing issues in Mitre Square, I'm more of the opinion that the killer was already at work on his victim when Lawende & Co. came out of the club.
                            The couple they passed were neither the killer nor the victim.
                            Regards, Jon S.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I'm absolutely on the Blotchy train. Especially since he meets the description of Ada Wilson's attacker. And the man seen with Eddowes.
                              I think we discount him because we know Kelly was alive for a couple of hours after she went in with him. But since we really don't know anything about his approach to his victims, I think we can't discount the idea that he spent time with them before he killed them. There is certainly significant missing time in everyone's account.

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