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**Heinrich** · 08-01-2011, 05:06 PM

Could the killer have lived at 13 Millers Court off Dorset Street?
Would this be in a "hot" area?

**Steven Russell** · 08-01-2011, 08:36 PM

Heinrich: How come you Barnettists don't make more of a big deal about Kelly's last meal being fish and potatoes given that Barnett was connected with the fish trade?

Best wishes,
Steve.

**John Bennett** · 08-01-2011, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by Colin Roberts View Post

Now, would any of the decrepit old farts out there, or any of the other know-it-alls that get a kick out of pooh-poohing the 'art' of geographic criminal profiling, care to challenge my contention that we should perceive a chance of at least 1-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 0.53 square-miles?

Anyone?

I'm not sure which (or both) of these two categories I fall into, but I think it's very likely odds, Colin.

JB

**richardnunweek** · 08-01-2011, 09:46 PM

Hi,
How about this for a twist, what if we have the wrong Barnett,?
It is true, is it not, that Joe Barnett's brother Dan still held a fish porters licence, and what's more was seen drinking with Mary on the evening of the 8TH., I therefore ask the question, was it he that supplied Kelly with the fish , if so when? it is also worth stating that he lived at the Victoria home, alongside Kelly's ex beau Fleming , and chief witness Hutchinson.
I wonder if the police interviewed Daniel Barnett?
Regards Richard.

**Garza** · 08-01-2011, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by John Bennett View Post

I'm not sure which (or both) of these two categories I fall into, but I think it's very likely odds, Colin.

JB

If by "odds" you mean how likely or unlikely a given hypothesis is, then yes, but that is what statistical analysis is about and it is the backbone of the modern scientific method.

Statistical Analysis is compiling the known data and determining how likely/unlikey of a certain outcome, it cannot give us a definitive answer. But it can seperate coincidances from very likely NOT coincidances and it is the only way to determine a fact from a pile of data. It in other words it links correlation with causation.

In science the standard measure is 5%.

If for example I want to find if mice have started to eat a certain species of bird egg, if the data I collect shows that this hypothesis has less than 5% chance of being a coincidance, then I take it as statistically significant and my hypothesis is correct.

Of course it could be a coincidance and the data could be showing something that isn't there, but it is very unlikely.

Some people think statistics is all guesswork, it really isn't.

**John Bennett** · 08-01-2011, 10:28 PM

Well, what I meant was that I agree with Colin's proposition that "we should perceive a chance of at least 1-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region."

**Heinrich** · 08-02-2011, 01:46 AM

Originally posted by Steven Russell View Post

Heinrich: How come you Barnettists don't make more of a big deal about Kelly's last meal being fish and potatoes given that Barnett was connected with the fish trade?

I do believe you are onto something there, Steven.

**Trevor Marriott** · 08-02-2011, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by Colin Roberts View Post

Anyone?

Hello?

Here's another depiction of the same probability distribution.

Cumulative Probability Distribution: Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Greatest Deviation, i.e. Mary Ann Nichols Murder-Site (Elliptical) (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2007
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

As is the case in the first depiction, an elliptical color-shaded isopleth is covering the region, within which an accumulation of 38.18% of the overall distribution is contained.

As is not the case in the first depiction, however, the color-shading entails a blended semi-spectral progression, from red to cyan, i.e. from 0˚ to 180˚, of the isopleth's hue; ... as opposed to a desaturation progression of the isopleth's chosen color, i.e. red.

The blended semi-spectral progression of the isopleth's hue, in this instance, creates the effect of a 'cooling' progression, from red, i.e. relatively 'hot', to cyan, i.e. relatively 'cold'. This effect lends itself to the use of the term 'heat map', in describing this sort of depiction.

Each of the two images, is intended to depict a desaturation progression of the overall probability distribution's density, within a single interval of distribution accumulation, i.e. 0.00% -to- 38.18%.

In other words, each of the two images is intended to depict an elliptical isopleth that covers the smallest region, within which 38.18 percentage points of the overall distribution of probability can be accumulated; that being a region, within which the density of the accumulation is greatest at its center (red), ... and least at its periphery (cyan).

The latter of the two images, however, is probably the better depiction of that particular quality of the given accumulation of the overall distribution of probability: i.e. that the density of the accumulation is greatest at its center (red), ... and least at its periphery (cyan).

~~~

In any case, the original (unrevised) manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model would suggest that we should perceive a probability of 38.18% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888; ... an inherent implication being that within the limitations of this degree of perceptual probability, i.e. 38.18%, we should consider the center of the elliptical region to have been the 'most likely' place of residence, whilst considering its periphery to have been the 'least likely'.

~~~

There are quite a few posters out there that get a kick out of pooh-poohing the 'art' of criminal profiling.

I have read numerous assertions to the effect 'profiling is nonsense', as well as a multitude of proclamations to the effect 'I don't believe in profiling'.

So, again, ...

Would anyone care to challenge my contention that we should perceive a chance of at least 1-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere - during the latter months of 1888 - within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 0.53 square-miles?

Anyone?

I for one most certainly challenge it and i am one of those who have no faith in any form of profiling.

You only have to look at the murder locations to see that they are all moments away from major thoroughfares quite easy for the killer to exit Whitechapel by that means

**Fisherman** · 08-02-2011, 02:19 PM

Steven Russell:

"How come you Barnettists don't make more of a big deal about Kelly's last meal being fish and potatoes given that Barnett was connected with the fish trade?"

I think that oranges would have been more damning, Steven, given the fact that Barnett had been sacked from Billingsgate Fish Market for a good many weeks when Kelly died, instead resorting to try and hawk fruit.
Anyways, fish was not exactly a rare commodity back then.

The best,
Fisherman

**Abby Normal** · 08-02-2011, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by HelenaWojtczak View Post

I know this is a five year old story but I have only just found it.

Head of analysis for Scotland Yard's Violent Crime Command Laura Richards

Jack the Ripper's face 'revealed'
An e-fit showing what detectives believe serial killer Jack the Ripper looked like has been revealed.
Using new profiling techniques, investigators have created a picture of what they believe the 19th Century murderer would have looked like.
The man, who evaded police in the 1880s, is thought to have killed and mutilated five London prostitutes.
The Scotland Yard team describe him as "frighteningly normal" but someone capable of "extraordinary cruelty".
And investigators have admitted that police at the time were probably searching for the wrong kind of man.
Head of analysis for Scotland Yard's Violent Crime Command Laura Richards, who has studied serial killer Fred West and Soham murderer Ian Huntley, revisited the case using modern police techniques.
TV documentary
She brought together a team of experts, including pathologists, historians and a geographical profiler, to find out if the case could ever be solved.
The result has been the most accurate physical, geographical and psychological portrait of the Ripper ever put together.
It will be revealed in a documentary on the TV channel Five on Tuesday.
� This is further than anyone else has got. It would have been enough for coppers to get out and start knocking on doors... they would have got him �
Metropolitan Police Commander John Grieve
Ms Richards said the 118-year-old evidence shows the Ripper was between the ages of 25 and 35, between 5ft 5ins and 5ft 7ins tall. He was also of stocky build.
Investigators have even been able to pinpoint his address.
Ms Richards said: "For the first time, we are able to understand the kind of person Jack the Ripper was.
"We can name the street where he probably lived; and we can see what he looked like; and we can explain, finally, why this killer eluded justice."
Never caught
Metropolitan Police Commander John Grieve, who has worked with the team of experts, believes the killer would have been caught if officers at the time had this new information.
"This is further than anyone else has got," he said. "It would have been enough for coppers to get out and start knocking on doors... they would have got him."

Did Miss Richards ever give us the address?

Helena

Hi Helena
That "documentary" was almost as lame as the Mei Trow nonsense. How do these people get on the air?

**Trevor Marriott** · 08-02-2011, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by Abby Normal View Post

Hi Helena
That "documentary" was almost as lame as the Mei Trow nonsense. How do these people get on the air?

Totally agree with you Abby

**Hatchett** · 08-02-2011, 07:03 PM

Hi,

Sadly the documentary did not live upto it's blurb and was, in my view, very disappointing.

Best wishes.

**Colin Roberts** · 08-02-2011, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by Heinrich View Post

Could the killer have lived at 13 Millers Court off Dorset Street?
Would this be in a "hot" area?

Of course!

The original manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model (unrevised) would suggest that we should perceive a probability of just 23.32% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided in closer 'proximity'� to the murder-site mean-center�, than did Mary Jane Kelly and Joseph Barnett, during the latter months of 1888.

13 Miller's Court, Dorset Street, Parish of Christ Church Spitalfields, therefore, should be perceived as having fallen within the 76th percentile� of the overall distribution of probability that pertains to the elusive 1888 residence of 'Jack the Ripper'.

� i.e. 'proximity' that is based upon elliptical deviation that is proportional to the calculated dimensions of the standard-deviation ellipse; as opposed to absolute deviation, i.e. straight-line distance.

� i.e. the southwest corner of the intersection of Wentworth Street and Osborn Street, in the Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel.

� i.e. the 'hottest' 0.19 square-mile area, anywhere.

Originally posted by John Bennett View Post

Originally posted by Colin Roberts View Post

Now, would any of the decrepit old farts out there, or any of the other know-it-alls that get a kick out of pooh-poohing the 'art' of geographic criminal profiling, care to challenge my contention that we should perceive a chance of at least 1-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 0.53 square-miles?

Anyone?

I'm not sure which (or both) of these two categories I fall into, but I think it's very likely odds, Colin.

Originally posted by John Bennett View Post

... I agree with Colin's proposition that "we should perceive a chance of at least 1-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region."

Thanks, John.

I truly believe that my proposition - i.e. that we should perceive a chance of at least 1-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888 - is really quite reasonable.