John Douglas´ Profile

[The Grave Maurice]

Interesting piece in the MailOnline today about Douglas. If you missed it, here's the link: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...=feeds-newsxml

[Jdombrowski89]

Hello Cuervo,

First of all, welcome to the forums

Second I agree with pretty much everything SSA John E. Douglas said in his Criminal Investigative Analysis. It was thorough and well done.

Though many will refute this because many hold their opinion above those of experience with these kinds of killers.

Corey

Corey,

I actually disagree with some of Douglas's viewpoints on the JTR profile. I like reading some of his books, but unfortunately 75% of John Douglas's books are on....John Douglas. I believe the profile could be updated with more knowledge we've obtained not only from other serial killers, but with JTR material as well.

Regards,
Justin

[Radical Joe]

6 ft tall and gay. You are describing the suspect - who was living in Whitechapel at the time of the murders - Frances Tumblety!

Siobhán

Well, considering the fact that Celee has long considered Tumblety as his number one suspect, that's hardly accidental is it.

And this is the problem with amateur profiling (and objections to others profiles) in particular. Celee's post may have been tongue-in-cheek, but too many 'Ripperologists' are more concerned with creating/agreeing with a profile that fits thier already chosen suspect than even attempting to look at it objectively. By the same token, someone comes along with a profile that dosen't fit the 'Ripperologists' already chosen suspect, and that someone obviously dosen't know what they're talking about.

I don't set a great store on profiles personally, but I would sooner trust one coming from a dispassionate party, with experience and a wealth of statistical information to call on, than someone who's already identified (and who's reputation might depend upon) a particular suspect. The professional's profile may not be accurate, but at least I can be confident it was created objectively (or, as far as any exercise involving human input can be objective) over one drawn up by someone with a vested interest in a particular conclusion.

A wilful subjectivity has been the bane of research in this field for far too long.

[Cuervo]

Thnak you Corey

[corey123]

Cuervo,

Thank you for that I love it when the sensable people always save the day.

This thread reminds me of why I want to post here, because there is still hope among the madness.

[Cuervo]

Hi Jonwiliams
There is lots of science behind profiling. I recomend you to check the jobs of Cristina Soeiro in Portugal about arsonists (and she is not the only one).
Best

[Errata]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...tigations.html

Criminal profiling is nothing more than a guess. Even the profilers themselves will tell you this. Guess enough times, you'll eventually get it right. Stewart Evans the ripper expert said criminal profiling is TOTALLY OVERRATED on before. Criminal profilers are one step ahead of psychics. Not based on science what so ever. Just a guess. That is all it is.

To be fair, profilers aren't just making it up as they go. Well, I'm sure some are, but a good deal of the information they use comes from studies of serial killers. Mostly by psychiatrists. If out of 100 prostitute targeting serial killers 76 say that they had domineering and abusive mothers, then there is a better than average change that a current prostitute targeting serial killer has a domineering mother. (i'm making that up for examples sake. I know nothing about their mothers) So it's statistics. But I imagine it's a bit like living in Eastern Oklahoma. There were no tornadoes yesterday or the day before, there were no tornadoes last year on this day, or on this day in the past 20 years. So you can say that there will be no tornadoes today, but you won't know if you're wrong until about 10 minutes before it takes your house to Arkansas.

[jonwilson]

http://www.deceptology.com/2010/05/criminal-profiling-is-crap-paper.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/sep/14/psychological-profile-behavioural-psychology

Even the experts don't think too highly of criminal profiling. Cory, if you want to believe criminal profiling is helpful at catching killers/murderers, that's your right and that is how you feel.

[Wickerman]

Here is another interesting and detailed analysis of the definition of a Lust Murderer, and the fact that a Lust Murderer can fall into two distinct groups. The Disorganized killer, and the Organized killer.

http://www.francesfarmersrevenge.com/stuff/serialkillers/3.htm

And at the end Mr Geberth states:

Both types of murderers are capable of all types of behavior.

Now there's a man with conviction in his own analyses.


Well, haven't we being saying this all along......and without the benefit of a PhD.

[corey123]

Jon Wilson must be god Out on a mission to end profiling

[jonwilson]

"The self-styled behavioural experts, who say they get into the mind of offenders, employed techniques that were more "fantasy than science", said a leading psychologist.

He said that the profession, which he claims has yet to solve a crime, was dangerous because it could lead to wasted police time and miscarriages of justice.

The attack came from the consultant psychologist Dr Craig Jackson, co-author of a damning critique of the profession soon to be published in a legal journal.

He argues that criminal profiling may be surrounded by a media-driven mystique but is unscientific and potentially harmful.

"Behavioural profiling has never led to the direct apprehension of a serial killer or murderer, so it seems to have no real-world value," said Dr Jackson. "

[jonwilson]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/7902778/Real-life-Crackers-are-worthless-at-catching-serial-killers-and-hamper-investigations.html

Criminal profiling is nothing more than a guess. Even the profilers themselves will tell you this. Guess enough times, you'll eventually get it right. Stewart Evans the ripper expert said criminal profiling is TOTALLY OVERRATED on before. Criminal profilers are one step ahead of psychics. Not based on science what so ever. Just a guess. That is all it is.

[Ben]

Hi Cuervo,

Possibly, although the link I provided did not include the full profile, just the points that later emerged to be correct following Ridgway's capture. Granted, some of these were vastly encompassing, such as "white male", but the 6th, 7th and 8th bullet points were quite specific.

All the best,
Ben

[Cuervo]

Hi Ben
Don´t you think gary ridgway profile is a bit general? they should have listened a bit more to Ted Bundy. Sometimes, how we say here "people live from their past beneficts" (which he had succesfully before, of course).

[Cuervo]

Hi

If you have been abused or dominated, maybe is in the social services records, and you can check whoever fits with the rest of the profile.