Ripper Facts

[Craig H]

Using witness statements and profiling to identify the Ripper

I'm interested in doing some research to use witness statements, profiling and census address records to try and identify the Ripper.

I think this secret will be to use enough assumptions to narrow the search, but not too specific as there are so many unknown variables.

This may be a waste of time and impossible to do. However I'd like to give it a go and keen to know if others are also interested.

Step 1 : Use Witness statements to create search criteria

My assumption is Lawende and PC William Smith are the most credible witnesses. They both saw a man aged about 30 years old, pale complexion, about 5'7" tall, clean shaven with small moustache.

Is there anything else we can tell from witness statements ?

Is the person not working class ? This means they are less likely to be a labourer, dock worker, etc.

William Marshall saw someone similar and heard him say “You would say anything but your prayers" in English accent which seemed well educated. If this is accurate, can we assume JTR was English, so not raised in Scotland, Ireland or Wales.

Step 2: Use Douglas (FBI) profiling to narrow search criteria

John Douglas (FBI) used knowledge about serial killers to produce the following profile:

https://vault.fbi.gov/Jack%20the%20Ripper/Jack%20the%20Ripper%20Part%201%20of%201

There is a good summary of this profiling in the attached CBS article

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/jack-the-ripper-case-125-years-later-murders-of-london-prostitutes-by-notorious-serial-killer-remain-unsolved/

I know a lot of people are sceptical about profiles such as these. However, they do have credibility and allows us to reduce search field.

Based upon this profile, can we assume JTR was not married, and lived on his own.

Other people have previously thought this was the case, as living with others would have increased chance that someone suspected and named him.

Step 3: Use geographic profiling to narrow search for where he lived

Kim Rossmo from Texas State University Centre for Geospatial Intelligence used some geographic profiling techniques to identify likely street addresses where the Ripper may have lived.

http://www.txstate.edu/gii/projects/jack-the-ripper.html

Wesley English also used geographic profiling to write the following article which identified possible streets where JTR may have lived.

http://www.wesleyenglish.com/geoprofile/infamous-cases/jack-the-ripper/

One option is we search specific streets.

Step 4 : Search the 1891 Census to identify a short list

Debra A – who has demonstrated wonderful research skills on this site and JTR Forum – has suggested using findmypast which allows search by specific streets.

This would allow us to search for a man, aged 25-35 y.o., who is a lodger, is single and living in the targeted streets.

We could possibly remove those born outside England and who are from lower social class.

Interested to hear what others think

All the best

Craig

[Scott Nelson]

Henry Defries, gasfitter, 7 Middlesex Street.

[David Orsam]

Step 4 : Search the 1891 Census to identify a short list

Debra A – who has demonstrated wonderful research skills on this site and JTR Forum – has suggested using findmypast which allows search by specific streets.

This would allow us to search for a man, aged 25-35 y.o., who is a lodger, is single and living in the targeted streets.

We could possibly remove those born outside England and who are from lower social class.

Interested to hear what others think

My experience, Craig, is that people moved around a lot in the nineteenth century, especially single men who were lodgers, so that one would have to question whether a census taken in 1891 will actually assist much, if at all, in establishing where a particular individual was living three years earlier and will not, in any event, include a large number of men who were living in your targeted streets in 1888.

[Columbo]

I'm interested in doing some research to use witness statements, profiling and census address records to try and identify the Ripper.

I think this secret will be to use enough assumptions to narrow the search, but not too specific as there are so many unknown variables.

This may be a waste of time and impossible to do. However I'd like to give it a go and keen to know if others are also interested.

Step 1 : Use Witness statements to create search criteria

My assumption is Lawende and PC William Smith are the most credible witnesses. They both saw a man aged about 30 years old, pale complexion, about 5'7" tall, clean shaven with small moustache.

Is there anything else we can tell from witness statements ?

Is the person not working class ? This means they are less likely to be a labourer, dock worker, etc.

William Marshall saw someone similar and heard him say “You would say anything but your prayers" in English accent which seemed well educated. If this is accurate, can we assume JTR was English, so not raised in Scotland, Ireland or Wales.

Step 2: Use Douglas (FBI) profiling to narrow search criteria

John Douglas (FBI) used knowledge about serial killers to produce the following profile:

https://vault.fbi.gov/Jack%20the%20Ripper/Jack%20the%20Ripper%20Part%201%20of%201

There is a good summary of this profiling in the attached CBS article

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/jack-the-ripper-case-125-years-later-murders-of-london-prostitutes-by-notorious-serial-killer-remain-unsolved/

I know a lot of people are sceptical about profiles such as these. However, they do have credibility and allows us to reduce search field.

Based upon this profile, can we assume JTR was not married, and lived on his own.

Other people have previously thought this was the case, as living with others would have increased chance that someone suspected and named him.

Step 3: Use geographic profiling to narrow search for where he lived

Kim Rossmo from Texas State University Centre for Geospatial Intelligence used some geographic profiling techniques to identify likely street addresses where the Ripper may have lived.

http://www.txstate.edu/gii/projects/jack-the-ripper.html

Wesley English also used geographic profiling to write the following article which identified possible streets where JTR may have lived.

http://www.wesleyenglish.com/geoprofile/infamous-cases/jack-the-ripper/

One option is we search specific streets.

Step 4 : Search the 1891 Census to identify a short list

Debra A – who has demonstrated wonderful research skills on this site and JTR Forum – has suggested using findmypast which allows search by specific streets.

This would allow us to search for a man, aged 25-35 y.o., who is a lodger, is single and living in the targeted streets.

We could possibly remove those born outside England and who are from lower social class.

Interested to hear what others think

All the best

Craig

Hi Craig,
I wouldn't put too much stock in any FBI profiling, especially on this case. Unfortunately there is no, I repeat, no criminal case that was ever solved that can be remotely contributed to FBI profiling.

Columbo

[GUT]

Hi Craig,
I wouldn't put too much stock in any FBI profiling, especially on this case. Unfortunately there is no, I repeat, no criminal case that was ever solved that can be remotely contributed to FBI profiling.

Columbo

And even worse, profiling is a moving feast, thus I have real doubts that even if a 100% accurate profile could be created in the 21st century it has much benefit when looking at a 19th Century crime, the same really applies to geophysical profiling.

[Craig H]

I wasn't aware profiling had such a poor track record in serial murders.

What about the assumption JTR was single ? It's hard to see how JTR could kill and come to wash off blood.

[Craig H]

Henry Defries, gasfitter, 7 Middlesex Street.

Hi Scott
I found Defries on ancestry.com but he was born 1874... Too young ??
Craig

[John Wheat]

I wasn't aware profiling had such a poor track record in serial murders.

What about the assumption JTR was single ? It's hard to see how JTR could kill and come to wash off blood.

To Craig H

I think the profile has its uses. For me it gives a rough idea of what Jack may have been like. I do however think the assumption Jack was single could be wrong. What if Jack had somewhere to stay away from his wife where he could wash blood off himself, change his clothes etc.

Cheers John

[Columbo]

I wasn't aware profiling had such a poor track record in serial murders.

What about the assumption JTR was single ? It's hard to see how JTR could kill and come to wash off blood.

Well, he very well could've been single, but the blood has been a question for years. There were washing stands apparently around where he could wash his hands, if his clothes were dark or he wore a coat over his clothes that could hide any spatter. Unfortunately he could very well have been married and carried on similar to other killers have done in the past.

I'm sure there has been great contributions by the FBI in Behavioral Science but profiling was never a science. As most profilers will tell you a profile is an opinion of the profiler, that's all.

Columbo

[Rosella]

People did 'midnight flits' as they were called, (leaving their lodgings, rooms, houses) all over the East End at that time and later. Couldn't pay the rent, uncomfortable about their neighbours/fellow lodgers, no problem, just move a few streets away, especially young single males, no furniture or bits and pieces to convey.

Even if we knew every single lodger in every house in every street in Whitechapel/ Spitalfields in 1891 it wouldn't help track Jack, IMO. This was an incredibly mobile population. Look at the work that's been done on the people who lived in Millers Court for example at the time of Mary Kelly's death in comparison to those living there at the time of the 1891 census.

[CommercialRoadWanderer]

Since is really likely that the murderer had to somehow carry on himself his grisly "thropies" while running from the scenes, we can easily assume that he had the means to at least wipe his hands. Moreover, he could have had some kind of hideout (a warehouse? a shop? a barn?) to use for his murderous activity, separated from his home and any possible family member.

[Rosella]

If he was a butcher I'm sure there would have been running water (if not hot water) and a sink on the premises somewhere.

[Debra A]

My experience, Craig, is that people moved around a lot in the nineteenth century, especially single men who were lodgers, so that one would have to question whether a census taken in 1891 will actually assist much, if at all, in establishing where a particular individual was living three years earlier and will not, in any event, include a large number of men who were living in your targeted streets in 1888.

I mentioned all this to Craig too. Just to be clear; Craig asked my advice on extracting the information he wanted based on Rossmo's profile from the 1881 and 1891 census and that is what I tried to give him tips on regarding the address search. I also suggested poor law records for 1887/88/89 as I felt they may give him an idea about how people shifted around.
Good luck to you though, Craig, for attempting to do something!

[Pierre]

The vampire will get you too, Craig.

I'm interested in doing some research to use witness statements, profiling and census address records to try and identify the Ripper.

Hi Craig,

So the theoretical perspectives will be different types of profiling hypotheses, the empirical data will be witness statements from 1888 and adress data.

I think this secret will be to use enough assumptions to narrow the search, but not too specific as there are so many unknown variables.

I see two main problems. Firstly, you will work deductively, i.e. from a top down perspective. To find a serial killer, one should work inductively, i.e. from a bottom up perspective. Otherwise, you impose perspectives on your data from the very beginning. So secondly, from the very beginning you will have all the empirical data strongly biased by postmodern profiling perspectives.

This may be a waste of time and impossible to do. However I'd like to give it a go and keen to know if others are also interested.

It´s not impossible. The question is what the results will be.

Step 1 : Use Witness statements to create search criteria

My assumption is Lawende and PC William Smith are the most credible witnesses. They both saw a man aged about 30 years old, pale complexion, about 5'7" tall, clean shaven with small moustache.

So that will be your data for the selection frame. From the very beginning you have decided that this must be how Jack the Ripper looked. You believe these two men in the past so much that you will let them decide what you should be looking for. That is OK. Try it. But a lot of men looked like that - and why do you believe that you will find such a man, Jack the Ripper with that sort of appearance, with the help of sparse sources from the past when the police could not find him in their own time?

Is there anything else we can tell from witness statements ?

Yes. That they often are not reliable. Witnesses misremember, they lie, do not see clearly in the dark, are scared to tell the police what they saw and do not want any trouble. How will you be able to distinguish your favourite witnesses from such witnesses? What will your arguments be? And you evidence? Not to mention the source criticism you will have to base all of that on. I do not want to discourage you, a witness can be a good start, but they may not be good witnesses.

Is the person not working class ? This means they are less likely to be a labourer, dock worker, etc.

How could you answer that question? "The person" - who is that? Is it the type of man you think two men in 1888 saw? You do not have his name. That is a very big problem. There is very sparse data only, and he looked like any man in 1888.

William Marshall saw someone similar and heard him say “You would say anything but your prayers" in English accent which seemed well educated. If this is accurate, can we assume JTR was English, so not raised in Scotland, Ireland or Wales.

OK. So no "the person" is "someone similar". Is he "a similar person"? Similar to what? To other similar persons, looking like similar persons. And Marshall - how do you know that he is reliable? Here you might see the weakest link in the chain of hypotheses about the killer in you upcoming theory. I am sorry, but it is really very difficult. Otherwise, 128 years would not have lied behind us. Generations of people trying to find him would not be history. I do not want to say it is hopeless. But difficult.

Step 2: Use Douglas (FBI) profiling to narrow search criteria

John Douglas (FBI) used knowledge about serial killers to produce the following profile:

https://vault.fbi.gov/Jack%20the%20Ripper/Jack%20the%20Ripper%20Part%201%20of%201

There is a good summary of this profiling in the attached CBS article

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/jack-the-ripper-case-125-years-later-murders-of-london-prostitutes-by-notorious-serial-killer-remain-unsolved/

I know a lot of people are sceptical about profiles such as these. However, they do have credibility and allows us to reduce search field.

I don´t know anything about the ideas of Douglas but what if you just happen to reduce the sample with the result that the killer is excluded from it and you do not know it? Are there any such risks with the ideas of this profiling perspective? I would look at that risk first.

Based upon this profile, can we assume JTR was not married, and lived on his own.

Other people have previously thought this was the case, as living with others would have increased chance that someone suspected and named him.

OK. So there you have one variable with two values that exclude a part of the sample from the possibility of being Jack the Ripper.

Step 3: Use geographic profiling to narrow search for where he lived

Kim Rossmo from Texas State University Centre for Geospatial Intelligence used some geographic profiling techniques to identify likely street addresses where the Ripper may have lived.

http://www.txstate.edu/gii/projects/jack-the-ripper.html

Wesley English also used geographic profiling to write the following article which identified possible streets where JTR may have lived.

http://www.wesleyenglish.com/geoprofile/infamous-cases/jack-the-ripper/

OK. From the research I have read about the geographical base for serial killers, they tend to have a base or home in the area where they commit their crimes.

One option is we search specific streets.

Step 4 : Search the 1891 Census to identify a short list

Debra A – who has demonstrated wonderful research skills on this site and JTR Forum – has suggested using findmypast which allows search by specific streets.

This would allow us to search for a man, aged 25-35 y.o., who is a lodger, is single and living in the targeted streets.

We could possibly remove those born outside England and who are from lower social class.

Interested to hear what others think

All the best

Craig

OK. The result will be that you get some guy matching your initial criteria based on the witnesses and you will have names and adresses. And then you will use that sample to examine every person, from all the data you can find.

It is easier to do as Fisherman did. He had one. You will have many.

And how many years has he been researching one person and trying to argue for one single person as being Jack the Ripper?

I think you could do some other type of research on the case and get much more interesting results. Why not study the type(s) of mutilations he performed and compare it to different types of honour mutilations in history? You could also analyse the similarities between the torso cases and the C-5. I believe that would be very meaningful and interesting. You can work inductively with each case, and find articles in the British Newspaper Archive about other cases of mutilations in the 19th century for more general comparisons of different types. Then you could classify his methods. That would be a new type of profiling for JTR and the Torso cases from a perspective of honour mutilation with comparisons from other examples, based on data from 1888 and 1889. And who knows, it might lead to knew theories and help ripperology.

Kind regards, Pierre

[Pierre]

Quoted, should have edited.