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  • #91
    Originally posted by Boggles View Post
    Well i wont flog a dead horse then,

    Interesting though
    Oh, it’s far from a dead horse.

    In 2010 an interesting article, “Forensic Document Examiners’ Skill in Distinguishing Between Natural and Disguised Handwriting Behaviors” was published in Journal of Forensic Sciences (v.55, no.5, pp.1291-5).

    When asked to give an opinion on which of two handwriting samples was disguised, FDEs made the correct call 73% of the time, and laypeople made the correct call 80% of the time. FDEs were much more inclined to give a response of “inconclusive,” however, and as a result of that, their error rate was significantly lower than that of laypeople (p.1292).

    An area where FDEs struggled was where the disguise was executed with fluency (p.1293).

    On one question, each and every FDE who expressed an opinion made the wrong call (p.1293).

    If I were you, I would feel free to “boggle away” about Bury and the Lusk letter.
    “When a major serial killer case is finally solved and all the paperwork completed, police are sometimes amazed at how obvious the killer was and how they were unable to see what was right before their noses.” —Robert D. Keppel and William J. Birnes, The Psychology of Serial Killer Investigations

    William Bury, Victorian Murderer
    http://www.williambury.org

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    • #92
      I would feel free to “boggle away” about Bury and the Lusk letter
      Yes i am actually in my own mind still convinced same, but in the interests of not appearing stubborn I'm content to ''boggle away quietly to myself''. For now at least.

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      • #93
        While the handwriting characteristics linking Bury to the Lusk letter are not unusual, we can take things a step further and look at the frequency with which a couple of these traits manifest themselves in his writing.

        In the case of conjoined words, or words that are connected by a common stroke, this trait occurs 2 times in Bury's confession letter, which I counted as 186 words long. In Bury's native handwriting, then, it occurs once every 93 words.

        Next we can look at the two handwriting specimens where Bury is disguising his handwriting, the "Letter from Ellen" and the Ogilvy letter.

        In the "Letter from Ellen" it occurs 4 times in a document I counted as 218 words long, for a frequency of once every 54.5 words and in the Ogilvy letter it occurs 1 time in a document I counted as 56 words long, or once every 56 words. Hence, when Bury is disguising his handwriting, this trait occurs much more frequently than when he is writing in his native hand.

        In the Lusk letter, this trait occurs 1 time (I have "I took" as being the only instance of this, taking "out if" as overlapping words, not words that are connected by a common stroke) in a document that is 55 words long, or once every 55 words. We see, then, that the Lusk letter is right on target for what we would expect in a specimen of disguised handwriting by Bury.

        We can conduct a similar survey with respect to words that are split up in some way (e.g., "s end," "Ki dn e"). In Bury's native hand, in the confession letter, this trait occurs about once every 11 words.

        In his two specimens of disguised handwriting it occurs more frequently. In the Ogilvy letter, I have this as once every 2 words and in the "Letter from Ellen," I have it is as once every 4.73 words.

        In the Lusk letter, I have it as once every 2.6 words, which fits within the range of what we would expect in a piece of disguised handwriting by Bury.

        We can quibble about how to define "words," or contest specific examples, but I think the figures I'm providing here should be roughly accurate.
        “When a major serial killer case is finally solved and all the paperwork completed, police are sometimes amazed at how obvious the killer was and how they were unable to see what was right before their noses.” —Robert D. Keppel and William J. Birnes, The Psychology of Serial Killer Investigations

        William Bury, Victorian Murderer
        http://www.williambury.org

        Comment

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