Stuart Kind, Geographic Profiler.

[JeffHamm]

Wouldn't that DeAngelo character in the United States serve that purpose?

Widely suspected of upwards of 150 crimes. The places, dates and times of the crimes are readily available on the internet, as is where he lived.

And, he moved home at least once during his crime sprees (to add a bit more interest to it).

He would just be 1, albeit long, series.

Series refers to the offender, not the number of offences they committed (that is the series length).

In order to evaluate a method you have to try it out on a large number of series, over a range of series lengths. It is best if you can get all series in a given area (usually for a type of crime, so all cases of serial arson, or serial burglary, or serial murder, etc) as then you minimize selection bias in the data set. Then you trt different routines and compare over the set, not individual cases.

- Jeff

[Fleetwood Mac]

I would like to get my hands on a large set of data, that includes all series of 3+ offenses (so no selection bias), that is large enough that I could really examine some of these sorts of questions. One can only dream.

- Jeff

Wouldn't that DeAngelo character in the United States serve that purpose?

Widely suspected of upwards of 150 crimes. The places, dates and times of the crimes are readily available on the internet, as is where he lived.

And, he moved home at least once during his crime sprees (to add a bit more interest to it).

[Fleetwood Mac]

It was closest to the Nichols murder.

I think I'm looking at the right place. 254 Whitechapel Road looks closest to George Yard Buildings and equidistant between Dutfield's Yard and Buck's Row.

'Probably splitting hairs, 254 WR wouldn't be too far off when employing Kind's method. Thinking about it, in the event Martha was a victim of the WM then you could argue it's prime location.

Kind was only one person, one case, still: his method worked that time.

[The Rookie Detective]

Thank you George.

The one addition I need to make is that Rose Mylett sometimes stayed with her mother in Bakers Row, which is very close to Hanbury Street (just north of it I believe)
It is documented that she stayed in various places over the years, but 18 George Street and Bakers Row (her mother's address) were the 2 main addresses she frequented shortly before her murder.

Alice Mckenzie's common-law husband McCormack (or McCormick?) also worked for a Tailor in Hanbury Street.


It would be interesting to have a visual map of ALL the above addresses I listed; that correspond to the list of ALLEGED victims above, and then ADD a map of the murder sites over the top (including the 2 confirmed Torso locations)..and see what it looks like visually.


You could then add the Public Houses and Beer Houses over the top of that.

So the map would comprise

list of murder victims (including all possibilities)
list of known and MOST RECENT addresses for each victim
list of all murder sites for ALL of those victims PLUS the 2 torso locations in Pinchin Street and 'Whitehall'
list of all the public houses and beer houses (and possibly coffee houses)

Now THAT would be a fairly comprehensive map that could perhaps aid in the Geo-Profiling.

I have seen countless maps of murder sites, but nothing as detailed and comprehensive as what I have mentioned above.


Maps aren't my strong point though, so it would take the brilliance of someone far more savvy than me to illustrate a map that detailed.


Jeff?



RD

I need to make a slight amendment regarding Rose Mylett's mother's address in Bakers Rows.

Bakers Row it seems was East of Hanbury Street, and not North of Hanbury Street, as previously stated.

This may be of little significance, but it's important for the sake of accuracy.


RD

[JeffHamm]

For those just wanting a well detailed map, there is this project here.

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff (and all)

I just wanted to list some data that I think highlights the importance of the locations of the victims dwellings prior to their deaths, and for once omit the actual murder sites.

I believe that George Street and Whites Row are BOTH important places to add...

In particular numbers 18 and 19 George Street.


So, let's look at this and we should all be able to see the running theme with these streets...


19 George Street - Martha TABRAM (Satchels Lodging House)
19 George Street - Annie FARMER (Satchels Lodging House) ... (alleged attack, possibly wouldn't include her)
18 George Street - Rose Mylett
18 George Street - Emma Smith
8 Whites Row - Annie Millwood (Spitalfields Chambers Lodging House)
8 Whites Row - Frances Coles (Spitalfields Chambers Lodging House)
Gun Street - Alice McKenzie (Tenpenny's Lodging House)

56 Flower and Dean Street - Polly Nichols (The White House) - note that '18 Thrawl Street' Wilmott's Lodging House, WASN'T Nichols' last known address!
35 Dorset Street - Annie Chapman (Crossingham's Lodging House) - note that Crossingham had TWO Lodging Houses on Dorset Street.
32 Flower and Dean Street - Elizabeth Stride
55 Flower and Dean Street - Kate Eddowes (Cooney's Lodging House)
13 Miller's Court/26 Dorset Street - Mary Kelly (McCarthy's Rents)

35 Dorset Street - Mary Ann Austin (1901) (Crossingham's Lodging House)



Ada Wilson was the only attack outside of this vicinity, at 19 Maidman Street in Mile End...but this occurred BEFORE all of the above except for Annie Millwood.
Ada also survived and wasn't a murder victim.
The Ripper warming up?

Also, note that NONE of the women were living in Thrawl Street JUST PRIOR to their respective murders.
On that basis, I believe that including Thrawl Street may be misleading to some extent in terms of the Geo Profiling.

So we have...

Flower and Dean Street - 3
Dorset Street - 3 (including Miller's Court)
George Street - 3 (possibly 4)
Whites Row - 2
Gun Street - 1

That's 12 or 13 murders of women residing in just FIVE different Streets, but more crucially, just NINE different lodging houses.

Crossinghams
McCarthys
Satchels
Spitalfields Chambers
Cooneys
The White House
TenPennys
32 Flower and Dean St (lodging house name?)
18 George Street (lodging House name?)


This is my list of the proposed victims in chronological order...

Millwood
Smith
Tabram
CANONICAL 5
Farmer (possibly exclude)
Mylett
Mckenzie
Coles
Austin (1901)


At the very least I would include the Canonical 5, Tabram, Mckenzie and Coles (8 Victims)


So, Jeff...does any of the data above impact your Geo-Profiling map?

Would you be able to map out my data above to reflect what I have listed?

If you could map a version omitting Thrawl Street, but including just the 5 streets I have highlighted above, I feel that could potentially shine a new light on proceedings.


RD

Hi RD,

Sure. If you post a map image with markers where you want, I can do one for you.

- Jeff

[Scott Nelson]

I suppose it would conform with the centre of gravity theory, but not with the idea of the earlier murders being closer to home/base nor with the later TOD (in terms of time of day) being closer to home/base.
It was closest to the Nichols murder.
Is this brothel or cigar shop related? And could it be deemed to be a base?
Yes
Is this related to Cox's suspect who was watched and somewhere near Leman Street, briefly went into a shop known for criminal activity?

Probably not, but it could be.

[Fleetwood Mac]

Oh, OK then. How about 254 Whitechapel Road? Could that be close?

I suppose it would conform with the centre of gravity theory, but not with the idea of the earlier murders being closer to home/base nor with the later TOD (in terms of time of day) being closer to home/base.

Is this brothel or cigar shop related? And could it be deemed to be a base?

Is this related to Cox's suspect who was watched and somewhere near Leman Street, briefly went into a shop known for criminal activity?

[The Rookie Detective]

Hi RD,

Excellent post. All that needs to known of living quarters in one place. I have bookmarked for future reference. Well done.

Cheers, George

Thank you George.

The one addition I need to make is that Rose Mylett sometimes stayed with her mother in Bakers Row, which is very close to Hanbury Street (just north of it I believe)
It is documented that she stayed in various places over the years, but 18 George Street and Bakers Row (her mother's address) were the 2 main addresses she frequented shortly before her murder.

Alice Mckenzie's common-law husband McCormack (or McCormick?) also worked for a Tailor in Hanbury Street.


It would be interesting to have a visual map of ALL the above addresses I listed; that correspond to the list of ALLEGED victims above, and then ADD a map of the murder sites over the top (including the 2 confirmed Torso locations)..and see what it looks like visually.


You could then add the Public Houses and Beer Houses over the top of that.

So the map would comprise

list of murder victims (including all possibilities)
list of known and MOST RECENT addresses for each victim
list of all murder sites for ALL of those victims PLUS the 2 torso locations in Pinchin Street and 'Whitehall'
list of all the public houses and beer houses (and possibly coffee houses)

Now THAT would be a fairly comprehensive map that could perhaps aid in the Geo-Profiling.

I have seen countless maps of murder sites, but nothing as detailed and comprehensive as what I have mentioned above.


Maps aren't my strong point though, so it would take the brilliance of someone far more savvy than me to illustrate a map that detailed.


Jeff?



RD

[GBinOz]

Hi Jeff (and all)

I just wanted to list some data that I think highlights the importance of the locations of the victims dwellings prior to their deaths, and for once omit the actual murder sites.

I believe that George Street and Whites Row are BOTH important places to add...

In particular numbers 18 and 19 George Street.


So, let's look at this and we should all be able to see the running theme with these streets...


19 George Street - Martha TABRAM (Satchels Lodging House)
19 George Street - Annie FARMER (Satchels Lodging House) ... (alleged attack, possibly wouldn't include her)
18 George Street - Rose Mylett
18 George Street - Emma Smith
8 Whites Row - Annie Millwood (Spitalfields Chambers Lodging House)
8 Whites Row - Frances Coles (Spitalfields Chambers Lodging House)
Gun Street - Alice McKenzie (Tenpenny's Lodging House)

56 Flower and Dean Street - Polly Nichols (The White House) - note that '18 Thrawl Street' Wilmott's Lodging House, WASN'T Nichols' last known address!
35 Dorset Street - Annie Chapman (Crossingham's Lodging House) - note that Crossingham had TWO Lodging Houses on Dorset Street.
32 Flower and Dean Street - Elizabeth Stride
55 Flower and Dean Street - Kate Eddowes (Cooney's Lodging House)
13 Miller's Court/26 Dorset Street - Mary Kelly (McCarthy's Rents)

35 Dorset Street - Mary Ann Austin (1901) (Crossingham's Lodging House)



Ada Wilson was the only attack outside of this vicinity, at 19 Maidman Street in Mile End...but this occurred BEFORE all of the above except for Annie Millwood.
Ada also survived and wasn't a murder victim.
The Ripper warming up?

Also, note that NONE of the women were living in Thrawl Street JUST PRIOR to their respective murders.
On that basis, I believe that including Thrawl Street may be misleading to some extent in terms of the Geo Profiling.

So we have...

Flower and Dean Street - 3
Dorset Street - 3 (including Miller's Court)
George Street - 3 (possibly 4)
Whites Row - 2
Gun Street - 1

That's 12 or 13 murders of women residing in just FIVE different Streets, but more crucially, just NINE different lodging houses.

Crossinghams
McCarthys
Satchels
Spitalfields Chambers
Cooneys
The White House
TenPennys
32 Flower and Dean St (lodging house name?)
18 George Street (lodging House name?)


This is my list of the proposed victims in chronological order...

Millwood
Smith
Tabram
CANONICAL 5
Farmer (possibly exclude)
Mylett
Mckenzie
Coles
Austin (1901)


At the very least I would include the Canonical 5, Tabram, Mckenzie and Coles (8 Victims)


So, Jeff...does any of the data above impact your Geo-Profiling map?

Would you be able to map out my data above to reflect what I have listed?

If you could map a version omitting Thrawl Street, but including just the 5 streets I have highlighted above, I feel that could potentially shine a new light on proceedings.


RD

Hi RD,

Excellent post. All that needs to known of living quarters in one place. I have bookmarked for future reference. Well done.

Cheers, George

[The Rookie Detective]

Hi Jeff (and all)

I just wanted to list some data that I think highlights the importance of the locations of the victims dwellings prior to their deaths, and for once omit the actual murder sites.

I believe that George Street and Whites Row are BOTH important places to add...

In particular numbers 18 and 19 George Street.


So, let's look at this and we should all be able to see the running theme with these streets...


19 George Street - Martha TABRAM (Satchels Lodging House)
19 George Street - Annie FARMER (Satchels Lodging House) ... (alleged attack, possibly wouldn't include her)
18 George Street - Rose Mylett
18 George Street - Emma Smith
8 Whites Row - Annie Millwood (Spitalfields Chambers Lodging House)
8 Whites Row - Frances Coles (Spitalfields Chambers Lodging House)
Gun Street - Alice McKenzie (Tenpenny's Lodging House)

56 Flower and Dean Street - Polly Nichols (The White House) - note that '18 Thrawl Street' Wilmott's Lodging House, WASN'T Nichols' last known address!
35 Dorset Street - Annie Chapman (Crossingham's Lodging House) - note that Crossingham had TWO Lodging Houses on Dorset Street.
32 Flower and Dean Street - Elizabeth Stride
55 Flower and Dean Street - Kate Eddowes (Cooney's Lodging House)
13 Miller's Court/26 Dorset Street - Mary Kelly (McCarthy's Rents)

35 Dorset Street - Mary Ann Austin (1901) (Crossingham's Lodging House)



Ada Wilson was the only attack outside of this vicinity, at 19 Maidman Street in Mile End...but this occurred BEFORE all of the above except for Annie Millwood.
Ada also survived and wasn't a murder victim.
The Ripper warming up?

Also, note that NONE of the women were living in Thrawl Street JUST PRIOR to their respective murders.
On that basis, I believe that including Thrawl Street may be misleading to some extent in terms of the Geo Profiling.

So we have...

Flower and Dean Street - 3
Dorset Street - 3 (including Miller's Court)
George Street - 3 (possibly 4)
Whites Row - 2
Gun Street - 1

That's 12 or 13 murders of women residing in just FIVE different Streets, but more crucially, just NINE different lodging houses.

Crossinghams
McCarthys
Satchels
Spitalfields Chambers
Cooneys
The White House
TenPennys
32 Flower and Dean St (lodging house name?)
18 George Street (lodging House name?)


This is my list of the proposed victims in chronological order...

Millwood
Smith
Tabram
CANONICAL 5
Farmer (possibly exclude)
Mylett
Mckenzie
Coles
Austin (1901)


At the very least I would include the Canonical 5, Tabram, Mckenzie and Coles (8 Victims)


So, Jeff...does any of the data above impact your Geo-Profiling map?

Would you be able to map out my data above to reflect what I have listed?

If you could map a version omitting Thrawl Street, but including just the 5 streets I have highlighted above, I feel that could potentially shine a new light on proceedings.


RD

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff,

While I appreciate the logic of your conclusion, I think that the observations of the H division constables (see post #54) suggest that the high risk population was not entirely confined to our discussion area. Had all the murders occurred in said area, this may we hold true, but given the location of the Nichols, Stride, Coles and Eddowes murders, the presumption for random selection would have to be that there were no unfortunates living in these areas. The area around St Botolph's Church was an area renown for prostitutes. The assumption would need to be made that they all came from our area of interest. (Am I once again veering away onto the road less travelled? ).

On your map, I believe Satchell's lodging house was the large building to the east of your blue dot. You may find this old map interesting - it shows the name as George St.

https://www.theundergroundmap.com/article.html?id=42011

Best regards, George

Hi George,

I'm not sure we would have to assume all the prostitutes in Whitechapel were from "our area". Of the hundreds (thousands?) in the area, we have a very small sample of their locations. I was just noting that while the C5 all come from that area, when we look at 3 more murder victims, it seems they too came from the same general area. As such, I'm not so sure the commonality of area is as improbable as it may seem. We could look at some other victims of attacks, like Ada Wilson on Maidman Street (which was quite far from the area), although Emma Smith had been living at George Street (similar to Martha Tabram: again from "our area" and, while some will disagree, in my view very unlikely to be a JtR victim). Annie Farmer was attacked (or claimed to be; the police doubted her story), and she was living in George Street, in fact at the Satchels like Tabram had been. Finally, Rose Mylett is listed as having lived in a number of areas, but interestingly one was 18 George Street, so she too came from "our area", although she was found dead 2 miles away (from the centre of the C5 murders). I'm not sure, though, if George Street was where she was living at the time she died.

Anyway, it seems to me that many, almost all (other than Ada Wilson), of those listed on the "victims" page of casebook had ties to "our area". So either they were all not randomly selected, or the odds are not as long as we might think they are.

- Jeff

[GBinOz]

In other words, I'm not so sure that one could say the fact the C5 lived "close" to each other is really improbable, given that one could say the same about McKenzie, Coles, and Tabram as well (they span a very similar area). I suppose if one includes them as potential JtR victims, one might see this as a further indication, but personally, I think it just shows that the people living in this area were people who, due to their circumstances, were at high risk.

Hi Jeff,

While I appreciate the logic of your conclusion, I think that the observations of the H division constables (see post #54) suggest that the high risk population was not entirely confined to our discussion area. Had all the murders occurred in said area, this may we hold true, but given the location of the Nichols, Stride, Coles and Eddowes murders, the presumption for random selection would have to be that there were no unfortunates living in these areas. The area around St Botolph's Church was an area renown for prostitutes. The assumption would need to be made that they all came from our area of interest. (Am I once again veering away onto the road less travelled? ).

On your map, I believe Satchell's lodging house was the large building to the east of your blue dot. You may find this old map interesting - it shows the name as George St.

https://www.theundergroundmap.com/article.html?id=42011

Best regards, George

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff,

My mistake, Tabram did live at Satchell's Lodging House, which was between Flower and Dean and Thrawl St. Gun St is west of the end of Dorset St, next street over from Crispin St where it is claimed Thompson was living at the time. McKenzie lived on the eastern side of Gun St, not far north of the intersection with Artillery St. Richardson lived at 2 John St (now Wilkes) on the western side a few doors from the intersection with Hanbury St.

Best regards, George

Ah, on the map the street running N-S connecting Flower and Dean and Thrawl is shown as Lolesworth Street, so appears to have undergone a name change (the map is for 1892 - 1914, and some street names were changed; but it gives the best detail of the layout. Just a bit of a pain at times; Dorset Street, for example, now shows as Duval on this map). Anyway, that would place Martha in the same area. Found Gun Street (oddly, I had scanned around Artillary Lane, but missed it as it was a quick search). Also, I checked Coles' victim page, and she and Sadler stayed at 8 White's Row, which is one street down from Dorset, so I've put a marker on White's Row as well.

I've quickly mapped out the locations, with the blue dots showing residences (Richardson at the top; McKenzie on the left, and a general marker for Flower and Dean for Eddowes and Stride, and another for where I think you're referring to with regards to Martha Tabram's lodging house running between Flower and Dean and Thrawl Street, and Thrawl for Nichols; a few I've just placed in the middle of the street as general indicators as I don't have to hand exact locations). The red dots show the Chapman and Kelly crime scenes, with Kelly's location indicating Dorset Street, and the blue marker indicates Dorset Street, where Annie lived, but I'm not positive as to the exact location of Crossinghams, and the one below is White's Row, where Coles had stayed. The yellow marker is the GSG.

With regards to the C5, then we're looking at an area covering from Dorset Street over to Flower and Dean/Thrawl. Tabram falls in that area as well, as does Coles. McKenzie's location on Gun Street is about the same distance to the west end of Dorset Street/White's Row as the east ends are to Flower and Dean/Thrawl, so I'm not really sure one could say she was from a "different area" really.

In other words, I'm not so sure that one could say the fact the C5 lived "close" to each other is really improbable, given that one could say the same about McKenzie, Coles, and Tabram as well (they span a very similar area). I suppose if one includes them as potential JtR victims, one might see this as a further indication, but personally, I think it just shows that the people living in this area were people who, due to their circumstances, were at high risk.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Sorry Jeff, what I meant was, that he had the girl in the car, he had the tools in reach. If he hadn't been arrested he would probably have attacked her, likely killed her.
How would an attack that far south affect the mapping of the model?

(accidentallly deleted this )
The area doesn't seem to ahve moved that much which surprises me. (Not in a "I don;t believe it" way, but more in a "I thought it would have done more" way)

Back in the early 90s when I was a "mature" student at Wakefield College, I did a lot of part time work at the local Arts Centre as Technical Crew, and we hosted a series of crime seminars. One was a pre release screening of "Let Him Have It" where I got to meet Tom Courtenay and a young Chris Ecclestone as they were part of a live Q&A with Iris Bentley as they were trying to get a posthumous pardon for Derek. One of the others was related to the Yorkshire Ripper Investigation, and one of the few things that I remember from it was someone who worked on the investigation saying that if he had got away with the murder in Sheffield, then it would have massively impacted the search area and potentially become a "pissing contest" between West and South Yorkshire Police Forces.
So I'd always thought that the way geo profiling works, adding a factor that would have been in the opposite direction to the focus of the search would have brought the foacl area of the profile more in line with that drag effect. If that makes sense?

In the end we're dealing with very complex behaviours. Human behaviour and choices are not simple things, the way physics and chemistry are. The physical sciences study one participant, the physical universe, while each and every person is a universe unto themselves. If physics, each time it took a measurement of, for example, gravity, had to take a measurement from a different universe, where the gravitational constant could vary from one to the other (and, as the universe progressed, that too could change in various ways, and sometimes it could for some reason decide to override that value, etc), then our understanding of physics would likewise be less exact.

Also, do bear in mind, the above zones is the 75% area, meaning, 75% of the time this is where you'll find the offender, but that means 25%, or one in four, they are outside that zone! From an investigative view, that still creates a thinning of resources. Sure, hindsight tells us that in this case it worked, but an ongoing investigation doesn't get to see where the offender's residence (in this case) is actually located, and all they know is that there's a good chance they are somewhere in there. And because of the size of Sutcliff's criminal range, that area is still pretty large. Add Sheffield in, and there then becomes another police force involved, and the whole possible range expands.

Again, spatial analysis is about creating an organized search pattern that helps to optimise the search, it doesn't "do the search" though. And as with anything, there will be times when an offender doesn't conform to the norm, that's the thing about probabilities, you expect some cases where it doesn't appear to work. When faced with just the offense pattern, and a suggested search map like the above, how do you know if you're dealing with one of the 3 out of 4 cases where that search will help or do you have the 1 in 4 where they're somewhere outside of that?

As I say, it's not magic, it's just maths. it is useful information to keep in mind, but it doesn't do the thinking, and if an investigation is leading the police to a suspect that isn't in the search zone, then ignore the spatial analysis and follow the actual evidence. These are suggestions as to where to look for evidence, but they are not evidence in and of themselves anymore than being the spouse of a murder victim is evidence you are the offender! It just means you are in a group where a high percentage of such offenders can be found. That's quite a different thing, but for the investigator, that means they will want to check you out. And if they follow that people search pattern regularly, over the course of their investigations they will find offenders faster than if they just search the population randomly.

Spatial analysis is often presented in the news, or entertainment, as if it "solves" cases. It doesn't, all it does is provide a source of information to consider. it is empirically demonstrated to provide useful information, but in the end it is simply a prioritized search pattern, not the results of the search itself.

Anyway, sorry to go on so much, but this is one of those things where the public perception is often widely off the mark due to how "profiling" is presented in the press and entertainment, neither of which are accurate descriptions. It doesn't help when there are some researchers whose presentations are a bit over zealous, often due to having a financial interest in selling software. As a result, people either think the goal is to "solve the case", or they view it as a complete waste of time; neither of which is justified. It's not a solution, true, but that doesn't mean it's a waste of time either.

- Jeff