Jack's Escape Route?

[JeffHamm]

An excellent and fair assessment as ever Jeff. I’d just throw in another possibility (and it’s one that’s been mentioned before of course). What if Harvey wasn’t as diligent as he might have been and only stood at the top of Church Passage without down going to the entry to Mitre Square? There’s no evidence to back this possibility up of course but we do know that Harvey dismissed from the force for reasons unknown just 10 months or so later.

Thank Herlock.

That's certainly possible. There was a lamp at the Mitre Square end of Church Passage, and PC Harvey may only have gone so far up, to verify the passage was empty. Given he could see the lit portion from a distance, and given Mitre Square isn't part of his beat, there would be no need to physically walk up to the end, only verify there was nothing to see.

And the lamp would make it hard for him to see past it and into the darkness of Mitre Square, so it would be unlikely for him to see JtR.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Hi George,

In the simulation, from the time they reach the crime scene until the time JtR flees works out to about 6 minutes. If we go with Levey's estimate of when the rain stopped, at 1:33 rather than 1:35, then there would be about 8 minutes.

And I can see the reasoning for following Harvey, particularly if he froze and had to wait it out. It's whether or not JtR followed the same line of thought that is the question!

- Jeff

Was reading the news today, and came across this concerning a prisoner who was today sentenced for an attempted murder of another inmate:

"According to an agreed summary of facts, the latest attack occurred in the exercise yard at Auckland Prison.

In the one-minute assault, caught on CCTV, Wheble cut the victim's eyelids and sliced the right side of his neck 21 times.

There had been no known incidents between Wheble and victim Brent Charlton, who was in two leg casts and was sitting against a wall.

The CCTV footage showed Wheble walking up to Charlton, a sex offender, and kicking him in the head.

Then with his left hand, Wheble lifted Charlton's head from the floor to his waist height and, with his right hand, took the shank from his pocket and repeatedly stabbed Charlton's face several times.

Wheble then let go of Charlton's head, took a step back and kicked him five times to the head.

With Charlton then unconscious, Wheble held up his head and continued to cut his eyelids, making 14 other cuts to his face and 21 cuts to his neck.

"
I'm posting this because the assault only lasted 1 minute, but in that amount of time the offender was able to render the other inmate unconscious, cut his eye-lids, and inflict 21 cuts to the victims neck. The weapon was a toothbrush to which he had attached a razor blade.

Now, that being said, that's not disemboweling, and the victim was particularly vulnerable (they had both legs in casts), but while the specifics of that vulnerability may differ the JtR victims were also vulnerable (most either intoxicated or at least exhausted, with Kelly possibly asleep at the start of the attack; most likely much weaker than JtR, and appear to have been lulled into a false sense of security given it appears they accompanied him to the crime scene location, etc). They also appear to have been rendered unconscious through strangulation. So, while not identical, I thought there were enough general similarities to make this of interest.

Given in the Eddowes case there are two cuts to the neck, and maybe half a dozen or so cuts to the face, a minute seems like more than enough time for that portion of the assault. That leaves the rest of the time for the abdominal injuries. I guess it then comes down to the question of, "if less than a minute is all that was required to perform the neck and facial injuries, is 5-7 minutes really required to perform the rest?" While I don't know the answer to that, in my opinion I can't say I see a compelling time problem.

Whether or not one agrees with my opinion I still think it is worth noting just how much can be done in very little time by an attacker when we start to wonder how much time was required during these crimes. The injuries are horrific, but as illustrated above, that doesn't mean they required extensive amounts of time.

- Jeff

[GBinOz]

Whether or not one agrees with my opinion I still think it is worth noting just how much can be done in very little time by an attacker when we start to wonder how much time was required during these crimes. The injuries are horrific, but as illustrated above, that doesn't mean they required extensive amounts of time.

- Jeff

Hi Jeff,

While your example is a welcome addition to our database, the injuries were external and inflicted in good light. I think the cuts to Eddowes eyelids were of a more delicate nature and were performed in near darkness. The removable of the kidney from a blood filled abdominal cavity in the dark is an entirely different proposition. Prosector, a member and doctor with surgical experience stated that he could not see it being achieved in under nine minutes considering the circumstances. Trevor's medical experts formed the same opinion. It is the organ removal that presents the problem and it is upon that premise that Trevor has proposed his "after the fact" theory.

With your simulation, I have the time of Jack and Cathy arriving at the murder scene and the attack commencing as 1:35:50, and Harvey entering the passage at a second or two after 1:41. I can't imagine Jack continuing his attack with Harvey in the passage, so I am seeing about 5 minutes for Jack to subdue, murder and mutilate his victim before commencing his escape. The time could be extended if Jack did continue his attack after the departure of Harvey. If Cadosch is to be believed, Jack continued his attack with a witness only feet away, twice. On the other hand, if Stride is to be accepted as a victim, he desisted at the first sign of trouble.

Best regards, George

[Trevor Marriott]

Was reading the news today, and came across this concerning a prisoner who was today sentenced for an attempted murder of another inmate:

"According to an agreed summary of facts, the latest attack occurred in the exercise yard at Auckland Prison.

In the one-minute assault, caught on CCTV, Wheble cut the victim's eyelids and sliced the right side of his neck 21 times.

There had been no known incidents between Wheble and victim Brent Charlton, who was in two leg casts and was sitting against a wall.

The CCTV footage showed Wheble walking up to Charlton, a sex offender, and kicking him in the head.

Then with his left hand, Wheble lifted Charlton's head from the floor to his waist height and, with his right hand, took the shank from his pocket and repeatedly stabbed Charlton's face several times.

Wheble then let go of Charlton's head, took a step back and kicked him five times to the head.

With Charlton then unconscious, Wheble held up his head and continued to cut his eyelids, making 14 other cuts to his face and 21 cuts to his neck.

"
I'm posting this because the assault only lasted 1 minute, but in that amount of time the offender was able to render the other inmate unconscious, cut his eye-lids, and inflict 21 cuts to the victims neck. The weapon was a toothbrush to which he had attached a razor blade.

Now, that being said, that's not disemboweling, and the victim was particularly vulnerable (they had both legs in casts), but while the specifics of that vulnerability may differ the JtR victims were also vulnerable (most either intoxicated or at least exhausted, with Kelly possibly asleep at the start of the attack; most likely much weaker than JtR, and appear to have been lulled into a false sense of security given it appears they accompanied him to the crime scene location, etc). They also appear to have been rendered unconscious through strangulation. So, while not identical, I thought there were enough general similarities to make this of interest.

Given in the Eddowes case there are two cuts to the neck, and maybe half a dozen or so cuts to the face, a minute seems like more than enough time for that portion of the assault. That leaves the rest of the time for the abdominal injuries. I guess it then comes down to the question of, "if less than a minute is all that was required to perform the neck and facial injuries, is 5-7 minutes really required to perform the rest?" While I don't know the answer to that, in my opinion I can't say I see a compelling time problem.

Whether or not one agrees with my opinion I still think it is worth noting just how much can be done in very little time by an attacker when we start to wonder how much time was required during these crimes. The injuries are horrific, but as illustrated above, that doesn't mean they required extensive amounts of time.

- Jeff

Hi Jeff
I totally agree that the time the killer would have needed to murder and mutilate Eddowes would be minimal, and we cant put an exact time on that but working on that premise we also have to factor in the time it would take the killer and Eddowes to walk to the murder spot, the time it would take for the killer to rifle her pockets, and then most importantly allegedly remove a uterus and a kidney in almost total darkness from a blood filled abdomen with no light available to him to be able to do that.

There are two important questions that arise from that
Could the killer have removed those organs given the crime scene conditions as described?
Could the killer have had sufficient time to do all that he is alleged to have done? bearing in mind that reserachers seem to want to use 1.35am as a start point when the couple seen if Eddowes and her killer may not have left that location until several minutes later reducing the time the killer had with the victim to a time not condcucive to the organ removal theory

https://www.trevormarriott.co.uk

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff,

While your example is a welcome addition to our database, the injuries were external and inflicted in good light. I think the cuts to Eddowes eyelids were of a more delicate nature and were performed in near darkness. The removable of the kidney from a blood filled abdominal cavity in the dark is an entirely different proposition. Prosector, a member and doctor with surgical experience stated that he could not see it being achieved in under nine minutes considering the circumstances. Trevor's medical experts formed the same opinion. It is the organ removal that presents the problem and it is upon that premise that Trevor has proposed his "after the fact" theory.

With your simulation, I have the time of Jack and Cathy arriving at the murder scene and the attack commencing as 1:35:50, and Harvey entering the passage at a second or two after 1:41. I can't imagine Jack continuing his attack with Harvey in the passage, so I am seeing about 5 minutes for Jack to subdue, murder and mutilate his victim before commencing his escape. The time could be extended if Jack did continue his attack after the departure of Harvey. If Cadosch is to be believed, Jack continued his attack with a witness only feet away, twice. On the other hand, if Stride is to be accepted as a victim, he desisted at the first sign of trouble.

Best regards, George

Hi George,

Yah, the attacks are under very different circumstances, and clearly the nature of the wounds very different, so I wasn't intending it to be a perfect parallel. On the other hand, if we had to estimate how long that attack would take, knowing only there were over 20 cuts, and the victim had been rendered unconcious, etc, I would be very surprised if there was a consensus on suggesting it would only take 1 minute.

And modern medical experts have varied widely on their estimations as to how long the JtR mutilations would take. I believe there is at least one expert pathologist who thinks it all could be done in as little as 2 minutes (though I think they say "3, or even as little as 2", type thing). Dr. Sequeria (sp?) estimated 3 minutes would be required.

And I may have misread the times in the simulation and overlooked the seconds being at 50, so closer to 5. But, the simulation is also based upon Lawende's estimate of waiting 5 minutes, while Leve estimated they waited 3 or 4 minutes. I simulated the tightest window available, and it provides for the longest estimate of 5 minutes (notwithstanding that estimate was I think stated as at least 5 minutes maybe more; I don't know how long more is, but there does appear to be at least 5 minutes, and maybe more - i.e. Leve available.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff
I totally agree that the time the killer would have needed to murder and mutilate Eddowes would be minimal, and we cant put an exact time on that but working on that premise we also have to factor in the time it would take the killer and Eddowes to walk to the murder spot, the time it would take for the killer to rifle her pockets, and then most importantly allegedly remove a uterus and a kidney in almost total darkness from a blood filled abdomen with no light available to him to be able to do that.

There are two important questions that arise from that
Could the killer have removed those organs given the crime scene conditions as described?
Could the killer have had sufficient time to do all that he is alleged to have done? bearing in mind that reserachers seem to want to use 1.35am as a start point when the couple seen if Eddowes and her killer may not have left that location until several minutes later reducing the time the killer had with the victim to a time not condcucive to the organ removal theory

www.trevormarriott.co.uk

Hi Trevor,

Indeed, there are many details that we don't know, such as at what point did Eddowes and JtR actually reach the crime scene; how long did Lawende and company actually wait for the rain? Was it 3 minutes, as per Leve (which adds 2 more minutes to the window of opportunity), or was it 5, as per Lawende? Was the Church Passage Couple actually Eddowes and JtR, or did they enter from some other location? If so, where and when (did they enter during the rain, which provides for even more time as we don't have to subtract Lawende or Leve's times)?

As I mentioned to George, modern medical experts themselves have varied in their opinions as to how much time would be required, from as little as 2 minutes to those who think much longer. Again, as with any expert testimony, there is no consensus there which makes it more difficult for us non-experts to know what to make of it. Are those who propose 2 or 3 minutes underestimating? Are those who propose longer times over estimating? Should we gather all the estimates and average them?

The purpose of the simulations I've run were to see if it was possible for there to be 5 minutes, which Dr. Brown I think it is, gives as his estimation, although Dr. Sequeria (sp?) offered his opinion of 3 minutes. And, I chose the longer of the waiting times given by Lawende, which provides us with the minimum window of opportunity. And that, provided the Church Passage Couple head into Mitre Square just after Lawende and company head off (the rain has stopped, so everyone gets on the move), does result in just over 5 minutes of time before PC Harvey arrives (5 m 10 seconds I think George noted). Obviously, if the rain stopped closer to Leve's estimate then there's a bigger window of unaccounted for time, allowing for more time at the crime scene and more variation in when exactly they arrive at the crime scene.

I can't, and don't, present this as if the times depicted are proven, or should be viewed as "facts". Rather, it simply demonstrates that it is possible for there to be the 5 minutes (the longer estimate of time required) available even under the most conservative settings.

But I cannot know if the events actually happened as they are depicted, and I don't claim to know. I just know that it is demonstrably possible for there to be the required time, so the argument "there isn't enough time" is invalid. There is enough time; what we don't know is if all of that time was made use of. But we can never know that.

- Jeff

[Abby Normal]

Hi Trevor,

Indeed, there are many details that we don't know, such as at what point did Eddowes and JtR actually reach the crime scene; how long did Lawende and company actually wait for the rain? Was it 3 minutes, as per Leve (which adds 2 more minutes to the window of opportunity), or was it 5, as per Lawende? Was the Church Passage Couple actually Eddowes and JtR, or did they enter from some other location? If so, where and when (did they enter during the rain, which provides for even more time as we don't have to subtract Lawende or Leve's times)?

As I mentioned to George, modern medical experts themselves have varied in their opinions as to how much time would be required, from as little as 2 minutes to those who think much longer. Again, as with any expert testimony, there is no consensus there which makes it more difficult for us non-experts to know what to make of it. Are those who propose 2 or 3 minutes underestimating? Are those who propose longer times over estimating? Should we gather all the estimates and average them?

The purpose of the simulations I've run were to see if it was possible for there to be 5 minutes, which Dr. Brown I think it is, gives as his estimation, although Dr. Sequeria (sp?) offered his opinion of 3 minutes. And, I chose the longer of the waiting times given by Lawende, which provides us with the minimum window of opportunity. And that, provided the Church Passage Couple head into Mitre Square just after Lawende and company head off (the rain has stopped, so everyone gets on the move), does result in just over 5 minutes of time before PC Harvey arrives (5 m 10 seconds I think George noted). Obviously, if the rain stopped closer to Leve's estimate then there's a bigger window of unaccounted for time, allowing for more time at the crime scene and more variation in when exactly they arrive at the crime scene.

I can't, and don't, present this as if the times depicted are proven, or should be viewed as "facts". Rather, it simply demonstrates that it is possible for there to be the 5 minutes (the longer estimate of time required) available even under the most conservative settings.

But I cannot know if the events actually happened as they are depicted, and I don't claim to know. I just know that it is demonstrably possible for there to be the required time, so the argument "there isn't enough time" is invalid. There is enough time; what we don't know is if all of that time was made use of. But we can never know that.

- Jeff

bingo Jeff
People need to keep in mind the ripper was working as fast as possible to do what he wanted to do and get at the organs he wanted. Its not some normal medical procedure he was carrying out. He obviously had enough time.Its only when your trying to back some ludicrous theory like he didnt remove and take away the organs that someone will try to make the there wasnt enough time argument.

The question really should be--Given how quickly the ripper did what he did, does it point to medical, surgical, or anatomical experience?

[Trevor Marriott]

bingo Jeff
People need to keep in mind the ripper was working as fast as possible to do what he wanted to do and get at the organs he wanted. Its not some normal medical procedure he was carrying out. He obviously had enough time.Its only when your trying to back some ludicrous theory like he didnt remove and take away the organs that someone will try to make the there wasnt enough time argument.

The question really should be--Given how quickly the ripper did what he did, does it point to medical, surgical, or anatomical experience?

For that to have happened it would have taken someone with far more medical anatomical knowledge than the doctors of the day given the crime scene conditions that knowledge would have to have extended to the killer not only knowing where the organs were located but thatr would also have to entailed removing them with an equal amount of expertise in almost total darkness

Come on Abby wake up to reality

https://www.trevormarriott.co.uk

[BooksbyBJThompson]

Hi BooksbyBJTompson,

Assessing the risk, or more critically, Jack's sense of risk at the time, is difficult due to the subjective nature of risk. It will depend upon what prompted JtR to leave the scene.

There are two events that happen very close in time, according to statements, that could have interrupted JtR and caused him to flee. Those events are PC Harvey's patrol of Church Passage, which appears to occur very close in time to when Morris opens the door of the warehouse during his cleaning up. As such, we don't know which of those events actually happens first. Either, however, could very well have alerted JtR and caused him to depart. Given the location of Church Passage, if PC Harvey arrives first, heading out through Mitre Street would get him away from PC Harvey's sight fastest and head him in a direction away from PC Harvey. Similarly, given the location of the warehouse, which is next to Church Passage, Mitre Street is the exit that maximizes his distance from a potential witness. Heading towards St. James Passage requires him to get closer to the potential witness, and so to me that seems less likely. Also, Blenkinsop, who was on standing duty in St. James as a security guard, didn't notice anyone exiting at that end (and while that's not definitive, it does make that route less likely to some extent - we have weak evidence against it).

Of course, if he leaves before either of those events, then St. James Passage could be viewed as more probable for the reasons you give but if he's chosen to leave (rather than the above "forced to flee"), Mitre Street is the closest exit and getting onto a main street might be desirable as it provides some cover due to being on a main street isn't going to make one suspicious looking (until, of course, the body is discovered and a search begins; so again, it now comes down to how JtR evaluated all of those things).

The most "Hollywood" suited route, of course, is for JtR to "wait out" the two interruptions (the argument being that he decides it is better to freeze in place than risk his movement being spotted), and then to exit via Church Passage behind PC Havey (knowing that route will be clear now, and having seen PC Harvey turn right upon his exiting, he knows he can turn left and avoid the PC who has that beat). My personal view is that is just a bit too dramatic for real life and even if he did "wait it out", I think he would still be prone to exit into Mitre Street due to its proximity. He could peer around the corner to see if there's a PC visible, and if not, off he goes, and if there is, he has the option of two other possible routes. And since PC Watkins isn't in view, Mitre Street becomes viable.

So, and this is only my opinion, I tend to think the most probable exit was via Mitre Street. It seems to me to be the least risky, particularly if he was prompted to flee by either Morris's door opening or PC Harvey's patrol. Even if he leaves on his own accord, Mitre Street, being the closest (and empty, which he could have verified before stepping out into it), also seems the most logical for him to choose. But, people don't always do the most logical thing (and JtR's decision to murder and mutilate in public does not rank high on the logical scale after all), so perhaps that's the wrong way to evaluate this. And, the other exits offer their own benefits, which JtR may have weighed differently than I am. So, who's to know?

Based upon the simulations, though, Mitre Street (heading north), St. James Passage, and a delayed exit via Church Passage, all could work, so all need to be considered as viable. The last, as I say, is a bit Hollywood, but sometimes reality is stranger than fiction, so ...

- Jeff

Hi Jeff,
I totally get what youre saying, I do, but Jack isnt acting normal. Above all, this is a game of power and control.
We know from previous attacks reward outweighs risk for this guy and I think he gets his jollies escaping through narrow passages.
The only time I see Jack on any thoroughfare is to lure in a prostitute. He prefers the dark passages, narrow alleys. That's his world.
We know he ends up sometime on Goulston, so whats the geographically fastest way?
I think youre right that he knows when the coppers pass by. He knows he has time. He feels not trapped or desperate.
And yes, I agree with you re: staying put. No. One doctor claimed all that was done to Eddowes could take 3 to 5 minutes. He was done and then calculated the best time to go, as the crow flies.
My gut says no main streets for Jack.
He walks as vermin walk.

[BooksbyBJThompson]

Well, put Jeff. I fully agree with your assessment. There is also the consideration that if JtR did flee via Mitre Street, he may have been aware that he could walk past anyone entering from that direction and they could not see Eddowes' body until they actually set foot in the square, thus giving him a few seconds head start before the body was discovered.

I wholly agree about body location.
I think Jack had hired girls for dry runs to these locations before the actual attacks, possibly with the same women. He knew precisely where to do his thing and get the most benefit. Jack is no disorganized killer no matter what some others say.

[BooksbyBJThompson]

For that to have happened it would have taken someone with far more medical anatomical knowledge than the doctors of the day given the crime scene conditions that knowledge would have to have extended to the killer not only knowing where the organs were located but thatr would also have to entailed removing them with an equal amount of expertise in almost total darkness

Come on Abby wake up to reality

www.trevormarriott.co.uk

Sorry to butt in on your convo with Abby, but we are assuming that what organs he took, he wanted. He might have just taken what he saw first or what came to mind in the moment after slicing through. I agree with the testimony of one of the doctors that this entire attack could have been done in 3 to 5 minutes with very basic knowledge. I think any butcher could have done same.

[BooksbyBJThompson]

Hi Jeff,

While your example is a welcome addition to our database, the injuries were external and inflicted in good light. I think the cuts to Eddowes eyelids were of a more delicate nature and were performed in near darkness. The removable of the kidney from a blood filled abdominal cavity in the dark is an entirely different proposition. Prosector, a member and doctor with surgical experience stated that he could not see it being achieved in under nine minutes considering the circumstances. Trevor's medical experts formed the same opinion. It is the organ removal that presents the problem and it is upon that premise that Trevor has proposed his "after the fact" theory.

With your simulation, I have the time of Jack and Cathy arriving at the murder scene and the attack commencing as 1:35:50, and Harvey entering the passage at a second or two after 1:41. I can't imagine Jack continuing his attack with Harvey in the passage, so I am seeing about 5 minutes for Jack to subdue, murder and mutilate his victim before commencing his escape. The time could be extended if Jack did continue his attack after the departure of Harvey. If Cadosch is to be believed, Jack continued his attack with a witness only feet away, twice. On the other hand, if Stride is to be accepted as a victim, he desisted at the first sign of trouble.

Best regards, George

Nine minutes for caring doctors.
Three to five for a sociopathic butcher of women.
Don't ask caring doctors for their opinion, ask another knifing serial killer. Times will be closer to the latter, I'm sure.

[Trevor Marriott]

Sorry to butt in on your convo with Abby, but we are assuming that what organs he took, he wanted. He might have just taken what he saw first or what came to mind in the moment after slicing through. I agree with the testimony of one of the doctors that this entire attack could have been done in 3 to 5 minutes with very basic knowledge. I think any butcher could have done same.

I keep hearing researchers keep mentioning this butcher theory, which I do not subscribe to, and I have to ask would a butcher back then have had an expert knowledge of the female anatomy to first be able to locate these organs in the dark, and then be able to remove them with some degree of anatomical knowldege this answer has to be a definite no. if that had have been the case we would see butchers performing hysterctomies in hospitals today

https://www.trevormarriott.co.uk

[Enigma]

I think we have to assume JtR was not interested in procuring the perfect anatomical specimen. He was working in a hurry in the dark and near enough must have been good enough to extract the organs, while he had one eye being detected and on the best means of escape. Time estimates for medical and butchery techniques hardly apply for a murderous psychopath.

[FrankO]

Hi BbBJT,

Welcome to the boards.

We know from previous attacks reward outweighs risk for this guy and I think he gets his jollies escaping through narrow passages.

We can only know that he was willing to take huge risks to kill and mutilate. For whatever dark reason he gets “his jollies” from mutilating his victims with a knife. All the rest is speculation. Of course, he may have gotten some extra jollies from getting away each time and from the notoriety he gained and the attention he got, but they’re certainly not a given. If he just got his jollies from escaping through narrow passages or wide thoroughfares for that matter, he could have just killed his victims. Remaining at the scene for any additional time to perform the mutilations would be risking his neck for nothing.

We know he ends up sometime on Goulston, so whats the geographically fastest way?

I think the shortest way is through Duke Street, Stoney Lane, New Goulston Street (ca. 450 m).

I think youre right that he knows when the coppers pass by.

This implies that he would have kept tabs on Harvey and Watkins for some time that night (and perhaps more occasions) before finding and bringing Eddowes to the square. But even if he did, it would not mean that he knew within the minute (or even 2 or 3) when they would pass when he was there with Eddowes. But even if he did, he couldn’t know whether Harvey would, this time around, pop his head out of Church Passage and into the square to take a peep and catch him in the act or that he would have been able to spot him from (near) the end of the passage. Unless, of course, he knew that Harvey never actually went up Church Passage, but only glanced up the alley and then continued along Duke Street. But, of course, there’s also Morris Eagle to consider. Would he come out every once in a while, for a smoke, a pause, and if so, would he be doing that following a time table?

Things to ponder…

All the best,
Frank