population totals

[protohistorian]

Dave Yost gives the 1890 population for whitechapel andsurrounding Burroughs as 175,000. Is this number valid? Respectfully Dave

[protohistorian]

Dave Yost gives the 1890 population for white chapel andsurrounding Burroughs as 175,000. Is this number valid? Respectfully Dave

Applying modern prevalence rates we get the following:
1. schizophrenic males 875
2. paranoid affective disorder 2407 males
3. schizoid 875 males
4. schizo typal 2625 males
5. ASPD 3368 males with 674 full blown psychopaths

total: 10,150 males

I post this to give some scope to the issue of suspect hunting in general. The numbers for schizophrenia are likely to be low by as much as 30%
Given the small number of suspects we have, the likelihood is that the killer s not on our radar, and was probably not on the radar of contemporaries, considering what one would have to do to be on their radar. I have already applied themath for eliminating females, because of the data we have regarding serials and preferred target, which subsumes the data above, then as now. These are approximations of the low end of the spectrum,and are provided to give some scope to the issue of Have likely fatal pathology could have been. Thisdoes not include lesser disorders that in and of themselves are harmless, but potentially fatal when co morbid. Respectfully Dave

[babybird67]

that's fascinating Dave...

although i can't pretend to understand the differences between some of the categories, such as schizophrenic or schizoid.

Also, despite the prevalence of apparently violent disorders, there was only one murderer capable of that series of murders in 1888, one Jack the Ripper.

I think it was John Bennett i spoke to once in chat and asked him how common murder was in that area at the time, and as far as i can remember he told me there were no reported murders in the previous two years (hope i am remembering that correctly John...apologies if i havent got that right)...so despite those figures i still think we are looking at a very singular individual myself.

[Sam Flynn]

I think it was John Bennett i spoke to once in chat and asked him how common murder was in that area at the time, and as far as i can remember he told me there were no reported murders in the previous two years.

Actually, Jen, we have to be very careful with reported murder statistics, for a number of reasons, not least among them being that some murders could have been wrongly classified as "manslaughter", "death by misadventure", even "suicide" I daresay. Some might not have been reported or recorded at all.

[babybird67]

that's interesting Sam...

thanks. Statistics are not always what they seem!

[perrymason]

Heres a bit from the East End News on November 20th, 1888, that may have some bearing on the question. The article began quoting Warrens comments ""London is the safest capital in the world for life and property.".......

"Whatever doubt may be created by the terrible occurrences in the East End - the horrible crimes which have gone undetected during the past few weeks - no one impartially studying and comparing the statistics can dispute the general accuracy of Sir Charles Warren's statement. Crime is unmistakably on the decrease, and although London draws its population from all parts of the world, and from all classes of society, it comes out better than most, if not all, provincial towns and districts. In pleasure towns the proportion of criminals to the population is one in 1,438, and in the centres of the hardware trade one in every 414, while in London it is only one in 2,019. The returns for England and Wales show a decrease of 1.4 per cent. in the total number of criminal classes at large and known to the police in 1886-7, as compared with the numbers in 1885-6. There is also a decrease in the number of houses of bad character equal to 8.1 per cent. In the total commitments to prison there is a decrease of 6,877, or 3.8 per cent. This is very satisfactory, and if the returns of the numbers of the criminal classes are examined in detail they will not be found less reassuring. Not only have the numbers of the known criminal classes decreased in ten years from 35,000 to 28,000, notwithstanding the general increase of population, but at the same time the number of juvenile and female criminals has shown a proportionate decrease. The total proportion of the criminal population at large to every 1,000 of the total population was - in the counties 1.50; in the boroughs, 1.40; and in the metropolis, 0.50. For the previous year the figures were - in the counties, 1.51; in the boroughs, 1.45; and in the metropolis, 0.49. Thus for every 100,000 of the population there were 150 criminals or suspected persons at large in the counties, 140 in the boroughs, and only 50 in London. This must be a little surprising to those people who look upon London as a sink of iniquity and a refuge for criminals. If we turn to the returns giving the number of houses of bad character, we find the same result. There has been a general diminution of such houses, the number in 1884-5 being 3,764; in 1885-6, 3,424; and in 1886-7, 3,146. For every 10,000 of the population there were in 1886-7, 0.44 of such houses in London; 2.81 in the boroughs, and 0.62 in the counties, the corresponding numbers for the preceding year being respectively 0.49, 3.06 and 0.67. "

Best regards all

[Sam Flynn]

"Whatever doubt may be created by the terrible occurrences in the East End - the horrible crimes which have gone undetected during the past few weeks - no one impartially studying and comparing the statistics can dispute the general accuracy of Sir Charles Warren's statement..."

The birth of "spin"?

[Septic Blue]

Dave Yost gives the 1890 population for whitechapel andsurrounding Burroughs as 175,000. Is this number valid? Respectfully Dave

That, of course, would depend upon one's chosen definitions of the terms "Whitechapel" and "surrounding boroughs"!

[ATTACH]6317[/ATTACH]
Ancient Parochial Establishment of East London (Click to View in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2007
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2009

- Yellow: The Parish of St. John at Hackney
- Orange: The Parish of St. Leonard Shoreditch
- Red: The Parish of St. Dunstan Stepney
- Green: The Parish of Bromley St. Leonard
- Purple: The City of London
- Gold: The Liberty of His/Her Majesty's Tower of London
- Blue: The Precinct of the Priory of St. Mary without Bishopsgate (St. Mary Spital)
- Green: The Precinct of the Priory of the Holy Trinity (Aldgate) (County of Middlesex)

The Ancient Parish of St. Dunstan Stepney (Red) was divided, between the years 1329 and 1867, into the following Civil Parishes:

- The Parish of St. Matthew Bethnal Green
- The Parish of Christ Church Spitalfields
- The Hamlet of Mile End New Town
- The Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel
- The Parish of St. John of Wapping
- The Parish of St. George in the East
- The Parish of St. Paul Shadwell
- The Hamlet of Mile End Old Town
- The Hamlet of Ratcliff
- The Parish of St. Anne Limehouse
- The Parish of St. Mary Stratford Bow
- The Parish of All Saints Poplar

The Precinct of the Priory of St. Mary without Bishopsgate (St. Mary Spital) (Blue) was originally part of the Parish of St. Botolph without Bishopsgate (excepting the northernmost 'tip', which was part of the Parish of St. Leonard Shoreditch). By the end of the seventeenth century, it had become The Liberty of Norton Folgate (north) and The Old Artillery Ground (south).

The green areas, which constituted the Middlesex portions of the Precinct of the Priory of the Holy Trinity (Aldgate), were originally part of the Parish of St. Botolph without Aldgate. The smaller area (north) eventually became the Parish of Holy Trinity (Minories), while the larger area (south) became The Precinct of St. Katharine (west), and once again the Parish of St. Botolph without Aldgate (east).

I fully intend to color-shade the subsequent divisions of the Ancient Parish of St. Dunstan Stepney (Red), listed above. But as yet, I have not found the time, with which to do so.

In the mean time, however, we can all refer to this splendid cartographic 'sketch', that Roy was able to uncover at Vision_of_Britian.org.

[ATTACH]6318[/ATTACH]
- Click the image to view the entire map at Vision_of_Britian.org –

*** Unfortunately; the 'GBHGIS Map Viewer' does not seem to be working. Or perhaps some component of the interactive link has 'expired'.***

Colin, you mentioned that link to the brown Parish map has gone dead. Here is a better link but it only gets you so far.

http://visionofbritain.org.uk/maps/results.jsp?xCenter=3200000&yCenter=3150000&scale=253440&mapLayer=osm&subLayer=os_sanitary_districts_1888&title=Ordnance%20Survey%20Sanitary%20Districts%2C%20showing%20Civil%20Parishes

You will notice the list of maps here is north of London. To get the London area maps, including Middlesex, you must center the map on London, then zoom in (use the box in the lower right as a guide). Eventually you will see Middlesex, Kent, Essex etc maps listed.

Roy

Many Thanks; Roy!

------------



White Dot: For Perspective - The Epicenter (i.e. Mean-Center) of the Tabram, Nichols, Chapman, Stride, Eddowes and Kelly Murder-Sites

Census Data: 1891

Holborn Registration District / Poor Law Union*:
- Charter House
- The Parish of St. Sepulchre (without Newgate) (County of Middlesex, -1889) (County of London, 1889-1965)
- The Liberty of Glasshouse Yard
- The Parish of St. Luke
Total Population*: 45,327
* (only those units of civil administration (i.e. Civil Parishes), which are fully depicted in the above map)

Shoreditch Registration District / Poor Law Parish:
- The Parish of St. Leonard Shoreditch
Total Population: 124,009

Bethnal Green Registration District / Poor Law Parish:
- The Parish of St. Matthew Bethnal Green
Total Population: 129,132

City of London Registration District / Poor Law Union:
Total Population: 38,320

- Whitechapel Registration District / Poor Law Union:
- The Liberty of Norton Folgate
- The Old Artillery Ground
- The Parish of Christ Church Spitalfields
- The Hamlet of Mile End New Town
- The Parish of Holy Trinity (Minories)
- The Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel (County of Middlesex, -1889) (County of London, 1889-1965)
- The Liberty of Her Majesty's Tower of London
--- The Liberty of the Tower
--- The Precinct of Old Tower Without
--- The Tower
- The Precinct of St. Katharine
- The Parish of St. Botolph without Aldgate (County of Middlesex, -1889) (County of London, 1889-1965)
Total Population: 74,462

Mile End Old Town Registration District / Poor Law Parish:
- The Hamlet of Mile End Old Town
Total Population: 107,592

St. George in the East Registration District / Poor Law Parish:
- The Parish of St. George in the East
Total Population: 45,795

- Stepney Registration District / Poor Law Union:
- The Parish of St. John of Wapping
- The Parish of St. Paul Shadwell
- The Hamlet of Ratcliff
- The Parish of St. Anne Limehouse
Total Population: 57,376


Total Population*: 622,013

* Combined color-shaded area of above map:

- Less the relatively small portion of the Combined Parish of St. James Clerkenwell & St. John Clerkenwell
- Plus the relatively small portion of the Parish of St. Leonard Shoreditch, not depicted
- Plus the relatively small portion of the Parish of St. Matthew Bethnal Green, not depicted
- Plus the relatively small portion of the Parish of St. Anne Limehouse, not depicted

[Septic Blue]

Total Population*: 622,013

* Combined color-shaded area of above map:

- Less the relatively small portion of the Combined Parish of St. James Clerkenwell & St. John Clerkenwell
- Plus the relatively small portion of the Parish of St. Leonard Shoreditch, not depicted
- Plus the relatively small portion of the Parish of St. Matthew Bethnal Green, not depicted
- Plus the relatively small portion of the Parish of St. Anne Limehouse, not depicted

Edit:

- Plus the relatively small portion of the Parish of St. George in the East, not depicted
- Plus the relatively small portion of the Parish of St. John of Wapping, not depicted
- Plus the relatively small portion of the City of London, not depicted

[Sam Flynn]

A classic, Colin. Bookmarked.

[protohistorian]

Edit:

- Plus the relatively small portion of the Parish of St. George in the East, not depicted
- Plus the relatively small portion of the Parish of St. John of Wapping, not depicted
- Plus the relatively small portion of the City of London, not depicted

thanks for the numbers Septic, the way the figures were calculated will allow you to multiply the individual totals by 3.554 to reach the number for males in a population of 622,013. Respectfully Dave

[Roy Corduroy]

Another nearby area was St Olaves, across the river. Besides boats, there were three means of crossing in 1888.
(1) London Bridge
(2) Tower Subway (a pedestrian tunnel)
(3) Thames Tunnel, then and now a railway.



The Tower Subway pedestrian tunnel.

[Roy Corduroy]

I have a population for St Olaves of 121,429 in the 1870's.

Applying modern prevalence rates we get the following:
1. schizophrenic males 875
2. paranoid affective disorder 2407 males
3. schizoid 875 males
4. schizo typal 2625 males
5. ASPD 3368 males with 674 full blown psychopaths

total: 10,150 males

I post this to give some scope to the issue of suspect hunting in general. The numbers for schizophrenia are likely to be low by as much as 30%
Given the small number of suspects we have, the likelihood is that the killer s not on our radar, and was probably not on the radar of contemporaries, considering what one would have to do to be on their radar.

Dave, I've been looking over your types. Certainly this is how we modern people would see it. And we could retro-apply these types to miscreants in the past, if we know enough about them. But people then also had other ideas about motive. Here is a sampling of some citizens who wrote letters to the London police:

"At least four male writers insisted that the murders were inspired by revenge against prostitutes for spreading venereal disease. "Scotus" paraded his medical knowledge by reckoning that the killer had been "badly disfigured" by phagedaena, an ulcerative disease, that might have destroyed his "privy member." Here then was the motive for these crimes. He advised the police to check every hospital that had recently treated patients for any such disorder. (Oct. 4). "A Thinker" believed that desire for "morbid revenge and retaliation for a severe dose of venerial [sic]" lay behind these crimes. He imagined a scenario wherein the killer would approach his victim, discuss the price for her services, fondle her from behind, and pretend to unbutton his trousers. At that point he would pull out a knife and cut her throat from left to right (Sept. 3). A man from Thanet College, Margate, Kent informed Col. Fraser that the culprit suffered from softening of the brain caused by consorting with diseased prostitutes. Acting on "the vile superstition of the Chinese and Malays," he was slaying these women in order to make a uterine poultice that would "suck off the virus from his ulcers" (Nov. 13). Robert Owen, an American from Milldale in Tuscaloosa county, Alabama, proposed that intimacy with prostitutes had ruined the mind and body of the murderer, who had once been a respectable man despite his assumption that the world was made for his pleasure. "Reduced to desperation and frenzy by disease," he was now running "a muck [sic]' against the class he held responsible for his downfall (Sept. 27)."

From http://www.casebook.org/dissertation...responses.html Responses to the Ripper Murders: Letters to Old Jewry L. Perry Curtis Jr.

[protohistorian]

I have a population for St Olaves of 121,429 in the 1870's.



Dave, I've been looking over your types. Certainly this is how we modern people would see it. And we could retro-apply these types to miscreants in the past, if we know enough about them. But people then also had other ideas about motive. Here is a sampling of some citizens who wrote letters to the London police:

"At least four male writers insisted that the murders were inspired by revenge against prostitutes for spreading venereal disease. "Scotus" paraded his medical knowledge by reckoning that the killer had been "badly disfigured" by phagedaena, an ulcerative disease, that might have destroyed his "privy member." Here then was the motive for these crimes. He advised the police to check every hospital that had recently treated patients for any such disorder. (Oct. 4). "A Thinker" believed that desire for "morbid revenge and retaliation for a severe dose of venerial [sic]" lay behind these crimes. He imagined a scenario wherein the killer would approach his victim, discuss the price for her services, fondle her from behind, and pretend to unbutton his trousers. At that point he would pull out a knife and cut her throat from left to right (Sept. 3). A man from Thanet College, Margate, Kent informed Col. Fraser that the culprit suffered from softening of the brain caused by consorting with diseased prostitutes. Acting on "the vile superstition of the Chinese and Malays," he was slaying these women in order to make a uterine poultice that would "suck off the virus from his ulcers" (Nov. 13). Robert Owen, an American from Milldale in Tuscaloosa county, Alabama, proposed that intimacy with prostitutes had ruined the mind and body of the murderer, who had once been a respectable man despite his assumption that the world was made for his pleasure. "Reduced to desperation and frenzy by disease," he was now running "a muck [sic]' against the class he held responsible for his downfall (Sept. 27)."

From http://www.casebook.org/dissertation...responses.html Responses to the Ripper Murders: Letters to Old Jewry L. Perry Curtis Jr.

I agree that any of those can be seen in the context of a logical motive. My point was that there were substantial numbers of people afflicted with mental conditions, to whom a logical motive would have bee irrelevant, and who historically have been responsible for acts on par with our killings. Tersely, my point was that given the number of "suspects" we have, the likelihood is that the killer falls in to the much larger domain of psychologically disturbed individuals. Statistics do not make that the case so much as they inform the probabilities. Respectfuly Dave

[Roy Corduroy]

From Post 6 on the previous page of thread, the Charles Warren quote:

"If we turn to the returns giving the number of houses of bad character, we find the same result. There has been a general diminution of such houses, the number in 1884-5 being 3,764; in 1885-6, 3,424; and in 1886-7, 3,146." (bold mine)

Is he referring to houses of prostitution, brothels?

Roy