Originally posted by moonbegger
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A conspiracy is always going to be the more complicated answer to a problem, when a simpler one is usually available, making conspiracies always unlikely, not to mention the fact that any particular one relies on a number of people not having said a word, ever to the end of their lives.
Here's a good example of a real conspiracy vs. a nutcase one: aliens at Roswell. The government covered up some weapons testing going on at an Air Force base in Roswell, New Mexico, partly so as not to alarm people, and partly so as to keep curious people our of the line of fire. Part of the testing involved sending up a lot of weather balloons, some of which were spotted, and caused some minor UFO panics, which the government shrugged off at the time, not realizing what they could snowball into, and thinking it was better than people knowing what they were actually doing.
Eventually, the UFO sightings, including the discovery of some debris from a fallen weather balloon by someone who didn't know what he was looking at (people were unfamiliar with mylar at the time, and it looked like "alien metal," probably because it was shiny, and used in Hollywood costumes in Sci-Fi movies), got conflated with the obvious secrecy at Roswell, and everyone just knew that they had a spaceship there that they captured, and they were doing experiments with spaceship technology. By the 1970s (and Vietnam, with POWs, and MIAs), the story was that Roswell had several spaceships, and alien bodies, and we could expect the aliens to return any day to collect their fallen comrades.
Sometime in the early 80s, or 90s, probably under the Freedom of Information Act, or maybe because the Air Force was tired of sightseers at Roswell, the government came clean about all the testing that had been going on, and thought that would make everything go away, but by then, it was totally out of hand, and true believers thought that the weapons testing story must clearly be just another layer of the cover-up.
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