What are the chances of….?

[Darryl Kenyon]

Hello Doc,

Even though I began this thread I’m jumping ship and leaving it to others as it’s simply too much effort discussing the case with someone that disputes every single minute point no matter how obvious or trivial. I’m starting to feel as if I said that Wednesday followed Thursday it would get debated. We have attempts to dismiss a suspects with an imagined alibi, simple and obvious possibilities dismissed as if they’re from the realms of fantasy, bending over backwards to dismiss witnesses, the ignoring of evidence and the refusal to even countenance the possibility of being wrong.

Too much like

I know exactly where you are coming from Herlock. I have stayed away from a few threads myself recently for the same reasons.

When you put a word/words in inverted comma's such as " A Sailor ". You are defining something . Meaning of define - to describe clearly and exactly what something is.

Much easier to have written [ and less open to interpretation ], appearance of a sailor . Which funnily enough is what the witness said. Instead of defining that he was a sailor .

Regards Darryl

[spyglass]

yes but not at two linked crime sites. bruh trust me on this one, theres alot of mysteries abound re the ripper, but this aint one of them.

I think we get the impression that there was literally hundreds of people walking about during the ripper hours....not the case I believe.
I would say there was a chance, but a very slight minimal one to take note of but concentrate clearly on the most likely..

[Aethelwulf]

I know exactly where you are coming from Herlock. I have stayed away from a few threads myself recently for the same reasons.

When you put a word/words in inverted comma's such as " A Sailor ". You are defining something . Meaning of define - to describe clearly and exactly what something is.

Much easier to have written [ and less open to interpretation ], appearance of a sailor . Which funnily enough is what the witness said. Instead of defining that he was a sailor .

Regards Darryl

We know though that it is simply impossible to wear clothes what a sailor would wear, and not in fact be a sailor:

[Coroner] What sort of a cap? - A round cap, with a small peak. It was something like what a sailor would wear.
[Coroner] What height was he? - About 5ft. 6in.
[Coroner] Was he thin or stout? - Rather stout.
[Coroner] Did he look well dressed? - Decently dressed.
[Coroner] What class of man did he appear to be? - I should say he was in business, and did nothing like hard work

[Iconoclast]

Question: Do we sometimes place too much emphasis on the ‘what are the chances of….’ argument leading us to sideline or dismiss other reasonable possibilities? I think that we might all be guilty of this at times.

In this particular instance I’m talking about ‘what are the chances of Eddowes killer being someone other that the man seen by Lawende, Levy and Harris?’ Like most people I think it likeliest that the man in question was her killer but is another killer all that unlikely? Jeff is my usual ‘go to’ man on this kind of stuff so perhaps we might get his opinion on this too?

So can it really be considered particularly unlikely that Eddowes ran into 2 men that night? Things that might, on reflection, appear to be instances of ‘what are the chances of?’ happen regularly and a woman talking to one man, parting then meeting another can hardly be considered a freakish occurrence. The streets weren’t entirely deserted after all.

Perhaps the man was someone that she’d known and she’d tried to borrow some money from him but he was skint and they parted company (like Kelly and Hutchinson)?

Perhaps she just stopped a bloke and tried to ‘interest’ him but he was having none of it?

Remember, we don’t know how long they’d been talking when they were seen and when Lawende, Levy and Harris passed none of them looked back, so Eddowes and the man could have gone there separate ways straight away or after a few seconds with Eddowes heading down Church Passage to run into her killer? We know that timings are disputed but Eddowes could still have met her death at the hands of a second man at the same time that we assume that she met it at the hands of Lawende’s man.

So are we too quick to assume that the man seen by Lawende, Levy and Harris with Eddowes must have been her killer and why would it be particularly surprising if it wasn’t? Are we too easily dismissing a reasonable possibility?

Back to the start, Sir H.!

The principle behind this thread is an excellent one. It basically says, "Stop chucking in uncertain details as proofs and open your minds to other possibilities other than that which Ripperology has allowed to grow tightly around it like strangling vines". Couldn't have agreed with you more, Herls.

On the specific subject of the man seen with the lady who was very probably Eddowes, I have often wondered if he could have been just another punter leaving the same club that Lawende, Levy, and Harris (I think I've got those three correct - oh, you named them in your OP!) had just left. I assume that everyone does know everyone else so maybe they were all club-goers on their way home and - as you say - minutes later peaked-cap man simply wandered away, Eddowes walked down Church Passage, and thenceforth into history.

What I find particularly galling is when you suggest something like this and some know-it-all who evidently was there at the time of the crimes posts:

"Ridiculous. What a stupid post." et cetera.

[Herlock Sholmes]

I'd argue that Wednesday follows Tuesday, and I can back that up with solid evidence.

[Herlock Sholmes]

I know exactly where you are coming from Herlock. I have stayed away from a few threads myself recently for the same reasons.

When you put a word/words in inverted comma's such as " A Sailor ". You are defining something . Meaning of define - to describe clearly and exactly what something is.

Much easier to have written [ and less open to interpretation ], appearance of a sailor . Which funnily enough is what the witness said. Instead of defining that he was a sailor .

Regards Darryl

Exactly Darryl.

[Losmandris]

Could the murderer have just been lurking in Mitre Square and attacks Eddowes from the shadows as she is passing through it? I am minded to be thinking of his state of mind if he had just killed Stride. May be not in the mood/a state to get involved in small talk?

Waiting with someone until the rain stops, chatting etc. If the case would suggest he was one cool cucumber if he had just had a close call with Stride.

[Herlock Sholmes]

Could the murderer have just been lurking in Mitre Square and attacks Eddowes from the shadows as she is passing through it? I am minded to be thinking of his state of mind if he had just killed Stride. May be not in the mood/a state to get involved in small talk?

Waiting with someone until the rain stops, chatting etc. If the case would suggest he was one cool cucumber if he had just had a close call with Stride.

I’d say that it has to be at least a possibility Tristan. Perhaps he saw her as she entered Church Passage silhouetted by the lamp so he held back and waited for her? It causes no timing issues as Eddowes could have walked from where she was seen by the three witness to the corner where she was killed in the same length of time alone as she could have done accompanied.

[etenguy]

I’d say that it has to be at least a possibility Tristan. Perhaps he saw her as she entered Church Passage silhouetted by the lamp so he held back and waited for her? It causes no timing issues as Eddowes could have walked from where she was seen by the three witness to the corner where she was killed in the same length of time alone as she could have done accompanied.

Hi Herlock

I think your OP is an interesting one and I have been interested in the posts that engaged with that. You choose a good example on which to hang the debate given how rarely that sighting is challenged. As you state, maybe the man with Eddowes was not JtR, who possibly met Eddowes moments later. Like other posters I think that unlikely, and Jeff Hamm's posts articulate well the reasons we have that support the possibility of the couple seen by Lawende and co as being Eddowes and JtR.

I wondered about Mitre Square and whether that was a regular haunt for prostitutes. In your paragraph I quoted here, you speculate the possibility that Eddowes was possibly spotted entering the square and was followed in by JtR. The probability of that scenario increases if Mitre Square was a location that prostitutes went to solicit for business. However, if that space were used solely for the conducting of business then it would support Eddowes entering with a punter in tow. I don't know the answer, but the regular patrols suggest to me that Mitre Square was not likely to be soliciting ground. Others might have better information and I'd be interested to know.

[Herlock Sholmes]

Hi Herlock

I think your OP is an interesting one and I have been interested in the posts that engaged with that. You choose a good example on which to hang the debate given how rarely that sighting is challenged. As you state, maybe the man with Eddowes was not JtR, who possibly met Eddowes moments later. Like other posters I think that unlikely, and Jeff Hamm's posts articulate well the reasons we have that support the possibility of the couple seen by Lawende and co as being Eddowes and JtR.

I wondered about Mitre Square and whether that was a regular haunt for prostitutes. In your paragraph I quoted here, you speculate the possibility that Eddowes was possibly spotted entering the square and was followed in by JtR. The probability of that scenario increases if Mitre Square was a location that prostitutes went to solicit for business. However, if that space were used solely for the conducting of business then it would support Eddowes entering with a punter in tow. I don't know the answer, but the regular patrols suggest to me that Mitre Square was not likely to be soliciting ground. Others might have better information and I'd be interested to know.

Hi Eten,

I take your point of course but I wasn’t suggesting that he was lying in wait for a prostitute in Mitre Square if that’s what you thought that I’d meant? Apologies if I was unclear. What I meant was that perhaps the killer just walked across Mitre Square (from Mitre Street or St James Passage) on his way to some likely location to find a victim and as he got near to Church Passage he saw Eddowes enter and so he stood back and waited for her to get into the square where he either propositioned her first or just put his hand over her mouth and took her into the shadows. I’d favour propositioned as it would have reduced the chances of her making a noise.

[Al Bundy's Eyes]

Hi Herlock

I think your OP is an interesting one and I have been interested in the posts that engaged with that. You choose a good example on which to hang the debate given how rarely that sighting is challenged. As you state, maybe the man with Eddowes was not JtR, who possibly met Eddowes moments later. Like other posters I think that unlikely, and Jeff Hamm's posts articulate well the reasons we have that support the possibility of the couple seen by Lawende and co as being Eddowes and JtR.

I wondered about Mitre Square and whether that was a regular haunt for prostitutes. In your paragraph I quoted here, you speculate the possibility that Eddowes was possibly spotted entering the square and was followed in by JtR. The probability of that scenario increases if Mitre Square was a location that prostitutes went to solicit for business. However, if that space were used solely for the conducting of business then it would support Eddowes entering with a punter in tow. I don't know the answer, but the regular patrols suggest to me that Mitre Square was not likely to be soliciting ground. Others might have better information and I'd be interested to know.

Hi E10,

I seem to recall nearby St Botolphs was an area for soliciting.
I don't imagine Mitre Square was used for soliciting, in that it would cease to be a secluded area to conduct business if punters were loitering around. Certainly with Nichols, Chapman and Eddowes I can't realistically see anything other than them acquiring a customer and leading them to a secluded spot.

The time frame for another person other than Lawendes man is vanishingly small, if the couple sighted was Eddowes and a man, he's odds on the killer. You wouldn't hang him on that alone though.

[etenguy]

Hi Eten,

I take your point of course but I wasn’t suggesting that he was lying in wait for a prostitute in Mitre Square if that’s what you thought that I’d meant? Apologies if I was unclear. What I meant was that perhaps the killer just walked across Mitre Square (from Mitre Street or St James Passage) on his way to some likely location to find a victim and as he got near to Church Passage he saw Eddowes enter and so he stood back and waited for her to get into the square where he either propositioned her first or just put his hand over her mouth and took her into the shadows. I’d favour propositioned as it would have reduced the chances of her making a noise.

Hi Herlock

I was actually coming at it from the other direction. Eddowes had no reason to go into Mitre square unless she had a punter in tow - unless the square was used for soliciting. which I am not sure it was. I see from Al Bundy's Eyes' post he doesn't think the square was used for soliciting either so unlikely Eddowes went there unless it was with a punter.

[Herlock Sholmes]

Hi Herlock

I was actually coming at it from the other direction. Eddowes had no reason to go into Mitre square unless she had a punter in tow - unless the square was used for soliciting. which I am not sure it was. I see from Al Bundy's Eyes' post he doesn't think the square was used for soliciting either so unlikely Eddowes went there unless it was with a punter.

But couldn’t she have been crossing Mitre Square on the way to somewhere though?

[Al Bundy's Eyes]

But couldn’t she have been crossing Mitre Square on the way to somewhere though?

Or on the way back? From Goulston St? After changing a 'sanitary napkin'? Think outside the box Herlock...

[etenguy]

But couldn’t she have been crossing Mitre Square on the way to somewhere though?

Indeed - entirely possible - but given the logistics of the night it seems to me to add to the circumstances which support that Lawende likely saw jtR - but you are right - it's not conclusive