Donald Trump

[GUT]

January 20, only a couple of weeks or so now.

Thanks Dunny, was talking to Mrs Gut about it and neither of us could remember.

[Wickerman]

January 20, only a couple of weeks or so now.

Interestingly, CNN had a political analyst on a couple of weeks ago, apparently he was the only one to predict from the very start that Trump would win, not only the Primaries but the Presidency.
This guy takes the pulse of public opinion and he is said to have a good record of correct predictions.
However, he also predicts Trump will not last the full term, he will be kicked out before the four years is up.

[Mayerling]

Hi GUT,

Until 1933 it was held on March 4th, as the Constitution had stipulated (the start of the year did not necessarily follow the start of the calendar year in January for business purposes - the fiscal year usually ends in March). However, in 1932 the Presidential election between incumbent Herbert Hoover and his Democrat challenger Governor Franklin Roosevelt of New York, got really rancorous about the responsibility for the Wall Street Crash and resulting, worsening, and continuing depression. Roosevelt blamed twelve years of failed Republican policies (under Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover) that resulted in the collapse of the Stock Exchange in October 1929 - and which favored the rich). Hoover, who had been really effective as Harding and Coolidge's Secretary of Commerce (probably the best in our history), resented that he was responsible for the collapse which was due to stock exchange rules and techniques long established there before he entered politics, and he claimed that FDR, as Governor of New York, was responsible for the proper and legal running of the companies that filed charters there with the Secretary of the State of New York. One of these was the New York Stock Exchange, so FDR was responsible. The public decided it was a Republican blunder, and Hoover was trounced. But the transition period (under the 1787 Constitution) lasted from November to early March of the following year. The out-going and in-coming Presidents were on barely civil terms with each other, and that period was a nightmare. Also the Republican Congressmen and Senators (many of whom had also lost re-election) decided to do the traditional of appointing as many of them to government posts as they could while still controlling the government (like Mr. Obama is currently trying to hamstrung Mr. Trump). Since it was a four month plus transition, the result was more difficult for FDR (although the new Congress gave him a time of reasonably friendly help for three months plus, now called the "First hundred days" and looked at in each new administration to see what happens).

Roosevelt decided that even though he planned to seek a second term, this long period between out and in administrations had to be shortened. He got the ball rolling on another Constitutional Amendment (the 21st I believe) that shortens the waiting period to just from election day to January 20th of the following year. It passed rather quickly, due to the number of Democrat states the 1930-1932 elections had created, and it first operated in 1937, when FDR had his second inauguration on January 20th. He would have the third and fourth also on January 20th, as would every succeeding elected President (not those like Truman and Johnson - the first time each - who succeeded due to death, nor like Ford who succeeded due to resignation).

Jeff

[Mayerling]

Interestingly, CNN had a political analyst on a couple of weeks ago, apparently he was the only one to predict from the very start that Trump would win, not only the Primaries but the Presidency.
This guy takes the pulse of public opinion and he is said to have a good record of correct predictions.
However, he also predicts Trump will not last the full term, he will be kicked out before the four years is up.

Gee. does that mean we can expect the Senate majority and minority leaders, the Speaker of the House, the Republican House Whip and Majority leaders, and the Democratic House minority leader, will in unison tell the finally flummoxed lummox Trump "YOU'RE FIRED!!!!" I hope they do, really.

Jeff

[GUT]

Hi GUT,

Until 1933 it was held on March 4th, as the Constitution had stipulated (the start of the year did not necessarily follow the start of the calendar year in January for business purposes - the fiscal year usually ends in March). However, in 1932 the Presidential election between incumbent Herbert Hoover and his Democrat challenger Governor Franklin Roosevelt of New York, got really rancorous about the responsibility for the Wall Street Crash and resulting, worsening, and continuing depression. Roosevelt blamed twelve years of failed Republican policies (under Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover) that resulted in the collapse of the Stock Exchange in October 1929 - and which favored the rich). Hoover, who had been really effective as Harding and Coolidge's Secretary of Commerce (probably the best in our history), resented that he was responsible for the collapse which was due to stock exchange rules and techniques long established there before he entered politics, and he claimed that FDR, as Governor of New York, was responsible for the proper and legal running of the companies that filed charters there with the Secretary of the State of New York. One of these was the New York Stock Exchange, so FDR was responsible. The public decided it was a Republican blunder, and Hoover was trounced. But the transition period (under the 1787 Constitution) lasted from November to early March of the following year. The out-going and in-coming Presidents were on barely civil terms with each other, and that period was a nightmare. Also the Republican Congressmen and Senators (many of whom had also lost re-election) decided to do the traditional of appointing as many of them to government posts as they could while still controlling the government (like Mr. Obama is currently trying to hamstrung Mr. Trump). Since it was a four month plus transition, the result was more difficult for FDR (although the new Congress gave him a time of reasonably friendly help for three months plus, now called the "First hundred days" and looked at in each new administration to see what happens).

Roosevelt decided that even though he planned to seek a second term, this long period between out and in administrations had to be shortened. He got the ball rolling on another Constitutional Amendment (the 21st I believe) that shortens the waiting period to just from election day to January 20th of the following year. It passed rather quickly, due to the number of Democrat states the 1930-1932 elections had created, and it first operated in 1937, when FDR had his second inauguration on January 20th. He would have the third and fourth also on January 20th, as would every succeeding elected President (not those like Truman and Johnson - the first time each - who succeeded due to death, nor like Ford who succeeded due to resignation).

Jeff

Thanks Jeff, that was one of the things we weren't sure on, fixed date, or like the election, (2nd Tuesday or whatever).

[ChrisGeorge]

"Where do I get one of those nice Big Hats, Comrade? They are really 'Yuge' as my pal Donald says!"

[jason_c]

Interestingly, CNN had a political analyst on a couple of weeks ago, apparently he was the only one to predict from the very start that Trump would win, not only the Primaries but the Presidency.
This guy takes the pulse of public opinion and he is said to have a good record of correct predictions.
However, he also predicts Trump will not last the full term, he will be kicked out before the four years is up.

There were at least two political scientists that I know of who predicted a Trump win, but as with the housing bubble many others have since claimed they also predicted a Trump win. Most of the rest were proven very very wrong. The most interesting non political scientist to predict the Trump win was Scott Adams(the creator of Dilbert). He predicted Trump for the Presidency early in the primaries. Here is a link below to his blog. He really opened my eyes this election cycle. It turns out the art of persuasion is not as I thought it was.

http://blog.dilbert.com/

edit; the blog can be difficult to navigate. Here is Adams with Bill Maher. Adams gives his insights on Trump's electioneering style.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4JkuQq-kFM

[Abby Normal]

why all the fuss now? why not all the times we were hacked before by a foreign government? Gee maybe because it had to do with an election where one side loss? and the side that loss it was revealed by the hacking that they engaged in unethical behavior? where was all the press coverage, hearings, heads of intel orgs, investigations and outrage then????
what a joke.

another sad example of the complete politicization and partisan BS crap that has corrupted EVERY branch of our government.

and that includes Trumps knee jerk reaction against even the possibility that it was the Russians. Hopefully he and the dems, all of us, can learn from this nonsense and wise up. Please!

[Abby Normal]

"Where do I get one of those nice Big Hats, Comrade? They are really 'Yuge' as my pal Donald says!"

LOL! you know what they say about big hats!!
(and no, it dosnt mean big brains)

[jason_c]

why all the fuss now? why not all the times we were hacked before by a foreign government? Gee maybe because it had to do with an election where one side loss? and the side that loss it was revealed by the hacking that they engaged in unethical behavior? where was all the press coverage, hearings, heads of intel orgs, investigations and outrage then????
what a joke.

another sad example of the complete politicization and partisan BS crap that has corrupted EVERY branch of our government.

and that includes Trumps knee jerk reaction against even the possibility that it was the Russians. Hopefully he and the dems, all of us, can learn from this nonsense and wise up. Please!

Im fairly sure that Trump has said he doesn't know if the Russia gov't was involved, but as with Trump he says a lot of different things on many matters. However, im almost 100% sure the US intel community only have suspicions that the Russian govt was involved, and that the leaks to the media have exaggerated the supposed evidence. I doubt any real evidence exists, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians were responsible.

[Pcdunn]

http://us.cnn.com/2017/01/09/asia/north-korea-trump-nuclear-missile/index.html

I think this is a test of our President-Elect; it will interesting to see what happens.

[Pcdunn]

No-- it was the Russians...

Im fairly sure that Trump has said he doesn't know if the Russia gov't was involved, but as with Trump he says a lot of different things on many matters. However, im almost 100% sure the US intel community only have suspicions that the Russian govt was involved, and that the leaks to the media have exaggerated the supposed evidence. I doubt any real evidence exists, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians were responsible.

Actually, Trump has recently said he does accept the U.S. intelligence report about the Russian hacking.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN14S0O6

[Hercule Poirot]

Something to meditate about!!!

Uncategorized US Intelligence Just Confirmed Trump Is Being Actively Blackmailed By Russia

http://occupydemocrats.com/2017/01/10/us-intelligence-just-confirmed-trump-actively-blackmailed-russia/

[Jon Guy]

Blimey, I can see the old East /West paranoia creeping again.
What a load of bollocks, are you guys really believing this blackmail stuff ?

We should be grateful that Trump talks to Putin, unlike the "celebrities" favourite guy who wasted his chance to make a difference.

[Pcdunn]

Millions sign up for "Obamacare" health insurance while Trump and GOP discuss repealing the Affordable Health Act.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-obamacare-enrollment-20170110-story.html