Donald Trump

[ChrisGeorge]

Just a quick question from an onlooker : has the health issue with Hillary had any effect? Are people paying more attention to her running mate than is customary?

Hi Robert

I don't believe Trump's barbs about Clinton's health have had much impact. As Hillary Clinton said last night at a charity dinner in New York, she spent 4 1/2 hours debating Trump in three debates. That speaks for itself. To answer your other question, I don't think Democratic VP nominee Tim Kaine is getting any more attention than normal for a running mate.

Best regards

Chris

[Robert]

Thanks Chris.

[John G]

the reason those polls (Rasmussen and the LA Times) consistently
have Trump ahead is because they have been polling the same people each time...so it will never give an accurate number...It's not fake, or "rigged" as Donald would say... but not accurate....be that as it may, national polls have Clinton ahead by 6... which is still relatively close (most times in recent history it's 1 or 2 points), it shows how completely divided we are as a country....and sadly, whoever wins will never get the support of the opposite side and will not be able to get much done...I love my country, and I hate that this election has made us look so bad to the rest of the world....extremists on both sides DO NOT REPRESENT the majority.. but sadly they get all the attention.....Oh well at least the World Series can start soon and I can be somewhat distracted!!!

Steadmund Brand

Thanks for the reply. That obviously explains the discrepancy. I'd just assumed that all polls were based on a random selection of individuals, but obviously not if some pollsters are just polling the same people each time.

I notice one poll today has Clinton 12 points ahead in Virginia, which will be a sensation if correct, as Obama only won this state with less than a 4 point lead over Romney in 2012.

[Pcdunn]

Unfortunately, Reuters reports its polls show Trump is gaining, and some prospective voters are saying they don't think his sexual behavior in the past matters now, or that they want to see what he'll do in the White House.

My concern is what if the unusually long list of alternative candidates manages to split the vote enough that there is no clear winner? Strange days, indeed.

[Stephen Thomas]

Clinton will win easily.

There are loads of stupid people everywhere but not enough in the US to vote this person in.

[Harry D]

Clinton will win easily.

There are loads of stupid people everywhere but not enough in the US to vote this person in.

Only because the rest of the stupid people will vote Clinton.

[ChrisGeorge]

Unfortunately, Reuters reports its polls show Trump is gaining, and some prospective voters are saying they don't think his sexual behavior in the past matters now, or that they want to see what he'll do in the White House.

My concern is what if the unusually long list of alternative candidates manages to split the vote enough that there is no clear winner? Strange days, indeed.

Trump probably could win if he would just stop shooting himself in the foot and keep to the issues.

Chris

[Pcdunn]

For better or worse, this afternoon I filled out my early voting ballot and dropped it in the white collection box. My vote is cast... It wasn't for Mr. Trump.

[YomRippur]

Just a quick question from an onlooker : has the health issue with Hillary had any effect? Are people paying more attention to her running mate than is customary?

Her fainting spell occurred around the same time she made that "deplorable" comment, and the double whammy did cause her poll numbers to drop -- to the point that 2 weeks later at the first debate, she dropped to a virtual tie with Trump. It wasn't only her health, but also the fact that she didn't disclose the incident, as it was only disclosed via a leaked video a few days later, that might have reinforced the notion that she was untrustworthy and that her health might be worse than she let on.

But then, the debates turned things around for both candidates, as Trump made one gaffe after another. Yes, the media was unfair to him at times, but some of his woes were self-inflicted. Tweeting tabloid-level nonsense about a 20-year-old beauty pageant (an issue that only Hillary brought up) was just sad and laughable. Many times, when he should've dismissed a nonsensical side issue, he took it personally for days. And some issues that he should've taken seriously, he sounded dismissive and defensive!

[YomRippur]

I wonder about the polls. Yes, most have Clinton ahead, but they're not consistent. In fact, of the three polls published on Thursday IBD and Rasmussen had Trump ahead, wheras the LA Times had it a tie.

Moreover, polling data from Rasmussen and the LA Times as consistently shown Trump to be either slightly ahead or in a tie with Clinton.

At this point, national polls are probably not as important as state polls, which also show Clinton having a big lead in electoral votes. Our system is set up so that the states have their say. Candidates have to win states, not just the country as a whole. The trouble is that within some states there are also deep division, which the electoral votes don't reflect because each state's EV's are winner-takes-all. So a lot of people's votes are wasted in a presidential election, such as those voting Republican in NY and CA.

[YomRippur]

the reason those polls (Rasmussen and the LA Times) consistently
have Trump ahead is because they have been polling the same people each time...so it will never give an accurate number...It's not fake, or "rigged" as Donald would say... but not accurate....be that as it may, national polls have Clinton ahead by 6... which is still relatively close (most times in recent history it's 1 or 2 points), it shows how completely divided we are as a country....and sadly, whoever wins will never get the support of the opposite side and will not be able to get much done...I love my country, and I hate that this election has made us look so bad to the rest of the world....extremists on both sides DO NOT REPRESENT the majority.. but sadly they get all the attention.....Oh well at least the World Series can start soon and I can be somewhat distracted!!!

Steadmund Brand

LA Times isn't exactly polling the same people. It picked 3000 people at random from the start (July 4, 2016), and each subsequent daily poll is conducted on 400 random people within those 3000 people. Also, each day's poll result is the cumulative average of all previous polls.

This poll differs from other polls mainly due to its using cumulative averages, as opposed to polls that only show a "snapshot" of a single point in time (like the latest ABC poll that shows Clinton's 12% lead).

Both types of polls are useful, I suppose. Cumulative averages are like the 100-day or 200-day averages in stock markets: they reveal trends. But in a presidential election, the only thing that counts is, of course, a "snapshot" of whom American voters pick on Nov 8th.

[Pcdunn]

CNN states the election is in a sort of "limbo" now (eye of the hurricane?) as both sides start to look ahead to the aftermath. But Trump has rallied before, so perhaps it's still too early to count him out...

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/24/politics/election-2016-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html

And for some comic relief-- the last debate parodied by the "Saturday Night Live" team.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/23/the-whole-world-is-laughing-at-donald-trump-in-snls-new-debate-sketch

[ChrisGeorge]

Donald Trump is so rich he makes sure to carry plenty of hot air around with him.

[Abby Normal]

Donald Trump is so rich he makes sure to carry plenty of hot air around with him.

LOL. speaking of hot air. I saw a picture posted on FB recently of an automatic hand dryer, and someone had written on it- press button for Trump speech.
HAHAHA!!!

[Fleetwood Mac]

Who's the favourite then as it stands?

I've no more than a mildly curious interest, but surely you couldn't find a worse candidate than Hillary? Even if you searched high and low from here to Outer Mongolia?