President Joe Biden Drops Out of 2024 Presidential Race

[Wickerman]

Hi Jon,

When a bi-partisan solution was reached on immigration, Trump had it crushed it on the basis that it would make his opposition look too good. IMHO Israel is conducting an exercise in genocide and should be isolated by both the US and the civilised world.

Cheers, George

George, a man of your intelligence must know what 'genocide' really means.
You are being intentionally inflammatory.
The death ratio in Gaza is acknowledged world-wide as the lowest in recorded history.

[Lewis C]

George, a man of your intelligence must know what 'genocide' really means.
You are being intentionally inflammatory.
The death ratio in Gaza is acknowledged world-wide as the lowest in recorded history.

Hi Jon,

I don't understand that last sentence. The death ratio of what to what? And as to "the lowest", what are the other things that it's being compared to?

[Wickerman]

Hi Jon,

I don't understand that last sentence. The death ratio of what to what? And as to "the lowest", what are the other things that it's being compared to?

Every conflict recorded in Center for Civilians in Conflict.
When numbers of military deaths in wars or conflicts occur they make a study of the numbers as compared to civilian deaths.
An example is that for every ten military deaths; one, five, or ten civilians also died.

It has been determined the Palestinian civilian deaths in Gaza are the lowest ratio to enemy activists (Hamas) also killed.
Lower than any US or UK military actions, as they are the most technologically advanced nations, yet Israel is more superior.

A complication with this assessment is that Hamas are civilians, they have no uniform to set them apart from Palestinian civilians. Therefore, it takes longer to collect & gather data, then confirm it, as much of the data comes from Hamas themselves.

If Israel was indeed committing genocide, the Palestinian population would be dropping, yet that is not the case.

A wide comparative historical analysis suggests a (conservative) ratio of 1:1 on average. Crucially, however, in urban warfare the ratios climb very sharply. The Washington DC-based Center for Civilians in Conflict reports that “In cities […] civilians account for 90 percent of the casualties during war.” Similarly, in its global survey of armed conflicts from 2011 to 2020, the NGO Action on Armed Violence found that “91% of those reported killed or injured by explosive weapons in populated areas were civilians.” Even when attacks were “explicitly coded as targeting armed actors” specifically, civilian casualties in populated areas still accounted for 69%. The (less than) 1:1.1 ratio of combatant-to-civilian casualties of war in the inordinately densely populated Gaza Strip is astonishingly low in historical comparison. Not only is this conceptually incompatible with genocide – it is its very polar opposite.

https://civiliansinconflict.org/

[GBinOz]

George, a man of your intelligence must know what 'genocide' really means.
You are being intentionally inflammatory.
The death ratio in Gaza is acknowledged world-wide as the lowest in recorded history.

Hi Jon,

As you know I respect your intelligence, but in this regard cannot agree with you. The Hamas attack on Israel in Nov 23 was despicable, resulting in 1139 deaths which included 815 civilians. In response Israel have reportedly killed over 39,000 Palestinians, of whom over 50% have been identified as women and children. This, plus the destruction of Gaza's housing, infrastructure, schools and farmland and the blockading of humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians is disproportionate and IMO should not be supported. The ICJ have judged that Israel’s occupation of the Gaza strip and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, is unlawful, along with the associated settlement regime, annexation and use of natural resources. But Netanyahu is ignoring this decision by the International Court of Justice and is intent on solving his perceived Palestinian problem by removal, by any means, of the Palestinian people from what Israel consider is Israel's land.

Cheers, George

[Fiver]

A wide comparative historical analysis suggests a (conservative) ratio of 1:1 on average. Crucially, however, in urban warfare the ratios climb very sharply. The Washington DC-based Center for Civilians in Conflict reports that “In cities […] civilians account for 90 percent of the casualties during war.” Similarly, in its global survey of armed conflicts from 2011 to 2020, the NGO Action on Armed Violence found that “91% of those reported killed or injured by explosive weapons in populated areas were civilians.” Even when attacks were “explicitly coded as targeting armed actors” specifically, civilian casualties in populated areas still accounted for 69%. The (less than) 1:1.1 ratio of combatant-to-civilian casualties of war in the inordinately densely populated Gaza Strip is astonishingly low in historical comparison. Not only is this conceptually incompatible with genocide – it is its very polar opposite.
https://civiliansinconflict.org/

Your quote is from the Times of Israel. It assumes reports of civilian casualties are wildly exaggerated, while reports of Hamas casualties are not inflated.

Here's what Center for Civilians in Conflict actually says.

"CIVIC condemns Israel’s continued disregard for international law in its operations in Gaza, including apparent indiscriminate attacks in populated areas and restrictions on humanitarian aid, and reiterates its call for an immediate ceasefire."

[Wickerman]

George.
I seriously have to question where you get your information.
The "despicable" attack was October 7th, 2023 (not Nov.)
Is it too much trouble to provide links & sources to back up your claim?

It has already been pointed out, the most reliable figure concerning overall deaths in Gaza is 28,185 (post 635). These numbers were inflated by Hamas, and/or by inaccurate records, then widely published.
The number above is what are deemed 'reliable'.

The flow of humanitarian aid is being disrupted by Hamas, who consistently raid the convoys to take food & fuel for themselves.

Israel have never engaged in removing the Palestinian people from Gaza. They have warned the people to leave conflict zones for their own safety, but they are still inside Gaza.
Israel was perfectly happy with Palestinian people living in Gaza, it is the activity of Hamas, who hide among innocent civilians, that has caused this conflict, not the people.
This is, as the world knows, the main reason for any civilian deaths, Hamas firing rockets from Hospitals, schools and residential blocks.

Really George, you seem to be following tabloid trash, I urge you to use official, normally verified, factual accounts. The picture is very different to what you post.

[GBinOz]

George.
I seriously have to question where you get your information.
The "despicable" attack was October 7th, 2023 (not Nov.)
Is it too much trouble to provide links & sources to back up your claim?

It has already been pointed out, the most reliable figure concerning overall deaths in Gaza is 28,185 (post 635). These numbers were inflated by Hamas, and/or by inaccurate records, then widely published.
The number above is what are deemed 'reliable'.

The flow of humanitarian aid is being disrupted by Hamas, who consistently raid the convoys to take food & fuel for themselves.

Israel have never engaged in removing the Palestinian people from Gaza. They have warned the people to leave conflict zones for their own safety, but they are still inside Gaza.
Israel was perfectly happy with Palestinian people living in Gaza, it is the activity of Hamas, who hide among innocent civilians, that has caused this conflict, not the people.
This is, as the world knows, the main reason for any civilian deaths, Hamas firing rockets from Hospitals, schools and residential blocks.

Really George, you seem to be following tabloid trash, I urge you to use official, normally verified, factual accounts. The picture is very different to what you post.

Hi Jon,

I stand corrected - the attack was October 2023, but I struggle to see that 28,000 deaths against 1139 is a more reasonable response.

With all due respect, I have difficulty in accepting that the United Nations and the International Court of Justice publications are "tabloid trash".

https://www.un.org/unispal/document/experts-hail-icj-declaration-30jul24/

Cheers, George

[Wickerman]

George.

So much trust is placed in the U. N., yet independent studies have found significant errors in the data, even Biden accepted the figures provided by Hamas (Gaza Ministry of Health).

If you have the time you might like to read how this all came together.


How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers

UN updated how it reports deaths in Gaza, did not admit to lying about them | Fact check

The U.N. changed the way it publishes death totals from the Gaza Strip, but it did not say earlier counts were incorrect. It now breaks out deaths of people who have been “identified" from "reported" deaths, a difference of more than 10,000 people as of May 17.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/05/17/un-death-toll-change-gaza-fact-check/73737102007/

Hamas-Run Gaza Health Ministry Admits to Flaws in Casualty Data

The Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health said on April 6 that it had “incomplete data” for 11,371 of the 33,091 Palestinian fatalities it claims to have documented. In a statistical report, the ministry notes that it considers an individual record to be incomplete if it is missing any of the following key data points: identity number, full name, date of birth, or date of death. The health ministry also released a report on April 3 that acknowledged the presence of incomplete data but did not define what it meant by “incomplete.” In that earlier report, the ministry acknowledged the incompleteness of 12,263 records. It is unclear why, after just three more days, the number fell to 11,371 — a decrease of more than 900 records.
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/04...casualty-data/

The goal of Hamas is to discredit & ultimately destroy Israel, as sanctioned by Iran. As part of this agenda Hamas will intentionally distort whatever data the media are interested in, in order to gain public sympathy.

[GBinOz]

George.

So much trust is placed in the U. N., yet independent studies have found significant errors in the data, even Biden accepted the figures provided by Hamas (Gaza Ministry of Health).

If you have the time you might like to read how this all came together.


How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers

UN updated how it reports deaths in Gaza, did not admit to lying about them | Fact check

The U.N. changed the way it publishes death totals from the Gaza Strip, but it did not say earlier counts were incorrect. It now breaks out deaths of people who have been “identified" from "reported" deaths, a difference of more than 10,000 people as of May 17.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/05/17/un-death-toll-change-gaza-fact-check/73737102007/

Hamas-Run Gaza Health Ministry Admits to Flaws in Casualty Data

The Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health said on April 6 that it had “incomplete data” for 11,371 of the 33,091 Palestinian fatalities it claims to have documented. In a statistical report, the ministry notes that it considers an individual record to be incomplete if it is missing any of the following key data points: identity number, full name, date of birth, or date of death. The health ministry also released a report on April 3 that acknowledged the presence of incomplete data but did not define what it meant by “incomplete.” In that earlier report, the ministry acknowledged the incompleteness of 12,263 records. It is unclear why, after just three more days, the number fell to 11,371 — a decrease of more than 900 records.
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/04...casualty-data/

The goal of Hamas is to discredit & ultimately destroy Israel, as sanctioned by Iran. As part of this agenda Hamas will intentionally distort whatever data the media are interested in, in order to gain public sympathy.

Hi Jon,

Thank you for the links, which I have taken the time to read. You quoted from Tablet Magazine:

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

This is also from that article (my boldening):

If Hamas’ numbers are faked or fraudulent in some way, there may be evidence in the numbers themselves that can demonstrate it. While there is not much data available, there is a little, and it is enough

Perhaps what is happening is the Gaza ministry is releasing fake daily numbers that vary too little because they do not have a clear understanding of the behavior of naturally occurring numbers. Unfortunately, verified control data is not available to formally test this conclusion, but the details of the daily counts render the numbers suspicious.

I find myself unpersuaded that speculation involving a number theory applied to a small sample of data constitutes a conclusion that the data is faked.

The second link points to a fact check of the following Facebook post:

“The UN admits they've been lying about deaths in GAZA – they've been more than DOUBLING the number to make Israel look bad!” the post reads.

The fact check by USA Today rated this post as FALSE, and reported the following:

Gaza's health ministry has struggled to keep its reports flowing and to fully identify victims – with name, age, sex and identification number – amid the destruction of infrastructure and the abandonment of some hospitals during the fighting, NPR reported. The Government Media Office in Gaza counts thousands of reported deaths of women and children that the health ministry has not identified, according to the BBC.
Haq told USA TODAY on May 17 that the health ministry now places the reported total deaths above 35,000, with thousands of identifications still needing to be completed. And he explained at the May 13 news conference why the organization thinks the ministry’s numbers are reliable.
“Unfortunately, we have the sad experience of coordinating with the Ministry of Health on casualty figures every few years for large mass casualty incidents in Gaza, and in past times, their figures have proven to be generally accurate,” he said.

I think we will have to agree to disagree on definitions of "tabloid trash", and "official, normally verified, factual accounts".

Cheers, George

[Svensson]

I find it extrodinary that there is an argument if the number is 29,000 or 35,000 and how to explain a fluctuation of 900 from one day to another. This is an active warzone and the personel and processes used to establish an exact number of victims is under daily attack from the IDF. So I'll give them a pass for not being as accurate as some in the west expect them to be. In any case, we can probably all agree on:

- tens of thousands of dead.
- in addition to this, tens of thousands severley injured, often with life changing injuries.
- Hundreds of thousands of people displaced, made homeless and or thier possesions and livelihoods destroyed.

And here in England, "decent hardworking patriots" are rioting because some asylum seeker is getting a free B&B while his/her claim is being processed. Imagine what these people would be capable of if some external force were to bomb their houses to bits....

[GBinOz]

I find it extrodinary that there is an argument if the number is 29,000 or 35,000 and how to explain a fluctuation of 900 from one day to another. This is an active warzone and the personel and processes used to establish an exact number of victims is under daily attack from the IDF. So I'll give them a pass for not being as accurate as some in the west expect them to be. In any case, we can probably all agree on:

- tens of thousands of dead.
- in addition to this, tens of thousands severley injured, often with life changing injuries.
- Hundreds of thousands of people displaced, made homeless and or thier possesions and livelihoods destroyed.

And here in England, "decent hardworking patriots" are rioting because some asylum seeker is getting a free B&B while his/her claim is being processed. Imagine what these people would be capable of if some external force were to bomb their houses to bits....

Hi Svensson,

While I agree with your post, I feel that I should remind you that some of "these people", or their parents, may very well have had their houses bombed to bits in the London Blitz of WW2.

Cheers, George

[Svensson]

Fine. Not sure what this has to do with them directly. My grandmother had her house bombed as well. Twice. First by the Russians in Königsberg in '44 and then again by the Americans in Göttingen in '45. it has no bearing on my decision-making process in how I react to today's world or local events.At least not consciously...

[Wickerman]

And here in England, "decent hardworking patriots" are rioting because some asylum seeker is getting a free B&B while his/her claim is being processed. Imagine what these people would be capable of if some external force were to bomb their houses to bits....

Turning a blind eye to the Asian rape gangs, Asians marauding the streets with machete's, Muslims storing weapons in mosques.
The police not always investigating Asian/Muslim crimes. The govt. taking fuel assistance away from pensioners while sending billions to foreign countries, in some cases, rebel regimes who have no concerns for human rights.

10's of thousands of Albanians running the drug trade on UK streets, came here as "Asylum seekers", from a country that is on the British Tourist Guide - right, that's how "bad" Albania is, Brits go there on holidays.
The truth is, Albanian criminals wanted by their own police are escaping their authorities and joining the "migration wave", setting up their criminal activities in the UK, and elsewhere.

There is much more than one or two issues, but again, every attempt is made by leftist collaborator's to diminish and belittle any public objection to this ridiculous state of affairs.

You know what happened to collaborators in Northern Ireland in the 70's?
You know what happened to the collaborators in France, in WWII?

Why is it that many of these collaborators fail to justify why they do it, and against the security interests of their own country?

[Wickerman]

...

I think we will have to agree to disagree on definitions of "tabloid trash", and "official, normally verified, factual accounts".

Cheers, George

George.
Did you look at the sources listed below the article?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/05/17/un-death-toll-change-gaza-fact-check/73737102007/

All the sources listed (U.N., NPR, BBC), were all contributors to the article, none of the fact checking included original sources.
I can't see how studying the output of second-hand sources can be viewed as checking the facts.
The sources are in Gaza.

Take a look at this link.

https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-213

Note:
The UN has so far not been able to produce independent, comprehensive, and verified casualty figures; the current numbers have been provided by the Ministry of Health or the Government Media Office in Gaza and the Israeli authorities and await further verification. Other yet-to-be verified figures are also sourced.

There is also a chart at the bottom of the above link that shows the flow of Humanitarian Aid (Incoming Truckloads), I think you should find informative.

...

You also mentioned something about 'genocide', in an earlier post.

Did you read what your own trusted source had to say about the charge?

Fact check: False claim UN court found Israel violated genocide convention

Instead, Kirby said the U.S. disagrees with South Africa's genocide claim and has not seen any indication that Israel's goal is to exterminate the Palestinian people, according to a transcript and video of the press briefing provided by the White House.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...k/72442375007/

The charge of genocide is both false & unjustified.

[GBinOz]

George.
Did you look at the sources listed below the article?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/05/17/un-death-toll-change-gaza-fact-check/73737102007/

All the sources listed (U.N., NPR, BBC), were all contributors to the article, none of the fact checking included original sources.
I can't see how studying the output of second-hand sources can be viewed as checking the facts.
The sources are in Gaza.

Take a look at this link.

https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-213

Note:
The UN has so far not been able to produce independent, comprehensive, and verified casualty figures; the current numbers have been provided by the Ministry of Health or the Government Media Office in Gaza and the Israeli authorities and await further verification. Other yet-to-be verified figures are also sourced.

There is also a chart at the bottom of the above link that shows the flow of Humanitarian Aid (Incoming Truckloads), I think you should find informative.

...

You also mentioned something about 'genocide', in an earlier post.

Did you read what your own trusted source had to say about the charge?

Fact check: False claim UN court found Israel violated genocide convention

Instead, Kirby said the U.S. disagrees with South Africa's genocide claim and has not seen any indication that Israel's goal is to exterminate the Palestinian people, according to a transcript and video of the press briefing provided by the White House.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...k/72442375007/

The charge of genocide is both false & unjustified.

Hi Jon,

My opinion is that we are seeing something akin to a little bully lashing out because he has a big bully backing him up. I would refer you to a video that has had no part in the formulation of my opinion, but does reflect many of my viewpoints, although I would present them in a more measured tone:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcyIbuRdVes&ab_channel=TheYoungTurks

I think that, given how far apart we are with our opinions, it may be prudent to finish this exchange as I don't wish us to descend into an antagonistic relationship.

Cheers, George