"American Idiot" song on chart for Trump's visit

[Wickerman]

Re Trump voters thinking just like him, I hope not! Read recently that a journalist spoke to three Michigan voters who had supported Trump. Two of the three said they wouldn't vote for him again, the third stuck with him. What if that loss of two-thirds for Trump happens nation-wide?

Meet Trump's new approval rating. Same as his old approval rating.(June 26).
The proof of the pudding, as they say....

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/25/politics/trump-approval-rating-analysis/index.html

[jason_c]

I didn't vote for Trump, but I agree with your American friend's assessment of him, Herlock.

Re Trump voters thinking just like him, I hope not! Read recently that a journalist spoke to three Michigan voters who had supported Trump. Two of the three said they wouldn't vote for him again, the third stuck with him. What if that loss of two-thirds for Trump happens nation-wide?

Also read that there may be a realignment between the parties, as suburbs turn out more Democratic voters, while Republicans continue to win rural, blue-collar workers in more traditional industries. Larger cities in bigger states will indeed get more voters for Democrats, while the Republicans are likely to win smaller states with fewer electoral votes.

Still early days, as you Brits say.

Re the Helsinki debacle, and the staggering news that Trump invited his pal Vlad to visit D.C.-- I am a Baby Boomer, we were raised during the Cold War and we all knew The Soviets were the enemies of The Free World, led by Uncle Sam. This is too much for my brain to take, hence my addiction to kitten videos...

There will be an electoral realignment in US politics but not quite the one predicted by most political scientists. One thing about those predicting the future - they get it wrong constantly. The already vast US federal deficit is about to skyrocket in coming years as the baby boomers retire. Discretionary spending is consequently about to become squeezed. That means less money for politicians to spend on their own pet projects and voter blocs. If voters are anti establishment now just wait until taxpayers get less money thrown at them whilst getting taxed at likely higher rates. Politics throughout the developed world are about to change dramatically.

[Svensson]

"One thing about those predicting the future - they get it wrong constantly"

I wholeheartedly disagree. They get it right most of the time, they get it wrong occasionally.

Point in case: the 2012 recession. It was predicted, corrective action was taken and it was therefore averted.

[jason_c]

"One thing about those predicting the future - they get it wrong constantly"

I wholeheartedly disagree. They get it right most of the time, they get it wrong occasionally.

Point in case: the 2012 recession. It was predicted, corrective action was taken and it was therefore averted.

Please, economists are among the worst at predictions. The biggest financial crash for 80 years was missed by almost every highly paid expert(the huge crash 80 years earlier went unpredicted also).

One of the two authors of the influential paper on 'The Coming Democratic Majority' in the US is already backtracking on his demographic & voting predictions. Sure, Hispanics may well bring about a Dem majority in the popular vote. What the expert got wrong was not taking into account a myriad of variables such as 1) a white backlash 2) winning California by 5 million votes is not as important electorally as winning WI, PA and MI by 100,000 votes combined.

[rjpalmer]

Meet Trump's new approval rating. Same as his old approval rating.

Sounds uncomfortably like the last line of a well-known song by The Who.

[Svensson]

"Please, economists are among the worst at predictions. The biggest financial crash for 80 years was missed by almost every highly paid expert(the huge crash 80 years earlier went unpredicted also)."

My point exactly, to a certain extent. First of all, there was widespread concern in 2005/6 about these so-called NINJA mortgages, so the warning signs were there but no one in government was willing to shackle the financial services. The scale of the crisis was not clear at the time, so the crash happened precisely because it was not predicted. My point was that countless other crashes WERE predicted and therefore did not happen. These decisions are being made every month in the US and by the ECB to keep the engines running. The fact that you listed two crashes 80 years apart proves my piint.

And yes, I don't think it an economists failure to predict Trump and his trade wars. But they are reacting now in order to limit the damage he could do to the global economy.