Given that LCN analyses can conceivably generate results from as little material as a single cell of an individual, the only way to be confident that results have not been obtained solely through contamination is to demonstrate conclusively with continuity records that contamination is not even remotely possible
So the chance of getting a completely different profile is 1 in 302,231,454,903,657,293,676,544. For comparison, the chance of winning the UK lotto is 1 in 13,983,816.
That's why the quote is peppered with qualifiers like "can conceivably" and "not even remotely".
Other factors to take into account:-
If there's more than "a single cell" (there's no way of telling) then the chances of drop in and out reduce.
If the sample is treated to seperate out only intact sperm heads, which is highly likely to have taken place in the case of the knicker fragment, then the chance reduces drastically.
KR,
Vic.
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