Do you think William Herbert Wallace was guilty?

[AmericanSherlock]

The whole point of this digression was to demonstrate that it doesn't have to be impossible [I already conceded it was not "impossible" if you care to read] for it to be vanishingly unlikely that Wallace was guilty.

As demonstrated up-thread, simple concepts like "probability" are a foreign concept for you...

To throw one head is "not impossible", in fact it's "quite likely".

To throw six is "very unlikely". That is not opinion, it's mathematical and logical fact, according to my university tutors in statistics, many moons ago...

And I don't think the Laws of the Universe have changed recently. I'm sure it would have been on the TV.

Meanwhile.. in La-La Land, the "not impossible" raised to some power, becomes "likely"...

Only in La-La Land.

Stop trying to trap people into meaningless semantic digressions and the same type of pointless arguments you've had your whole life and undoubtedly destroyed your entire family with.

[RodCrosby]

Why is it unlikely?

For the same reason that 2 * 2 = 4

Notice I said * and not +

Now there's a clue...

Take a crash course in Stats, and you'll find out. [my degree, as it happens]

As and when you've managed to get your head around "Sums", of course...

I'm not holding my breath.

[Herlock Sholmes]

Rod thinks it less logical or probable that the weapon was disposed of in an ash tin, to be dumped amongs tons of ash never to be seen again, than it is for it to have been carried away by a thief who wore gloves, and so could in no way be connected to the weapon, and then have the thief’s co-conspirator take his car to be cleaned, at a garage where he was mistrusted and not welcome, by a man that didn’t like him to whom, without any prompting, he spills the beans about the crime and tells him where the weapon was dumped.!


JUST READ THAT PARAGRAPH ROD...ITS WHAT YOU BELIEVE HAPPENED

[Herlock Sholmes]

For the same reason that 2 * 2 = 4

Notice I said * and not +

Now there's a clue...

Take a crash course in Stats, and you'll find out. [my degree, as it happens]

As and when you've managed to get your head around "Sums", of course...

I'm not holding my breath.

Not an explaination. More waffle.

Give me a reason.

Come on.

Not pointless, meaningless numbers.

Reasons why Wallace would have been extremely unlikely to have dumped the weapon in an ash can.

Come on.

[AmericanSherlock]

For the same reason that 2 * 2 = 4

Notice I said * and not +

Now there's a clue...

Take a crash course in Stats, and you'll find out. [my degree, as it happens]

As and when you've managed to get your head around "Sums", of course...

I'm not holding my breath.

What the heck are you on about?

Why so belligerent today, Rodney?

Oh, it's past the middle of the month, government checks running out....nevermind



PLEASE write a book on the Wallace case so I can laugh at the reviews. You will have to self publish though...

[Herlock Sholmes]

Because he can’t give intelligent, reasoned answers.

He’s now taken to responding in numbers

Next time you ask me a question AS I’ll just say: because 7+8=15

[Herlock Sholmes]

What the heck are you on about?

Why so belligerent today, Rodney?

Oh, it's past the middle of the month, government checks running out....nevermind



PLEASE write a book on the Wallace case so I can laugh at the reviews. You will have to self publish though...

Maybe FantasyIsland Publishers might be interested.

[AmericanSherlock]

Because he can’t give intelligent, reasoned answers.

He’s now taken to responding in numbers

Next time you ask me a question AS I’ll just say: because 7+8=15

Wallace is 48 and Parry is 96 so therefore it was the sneak thief accomplice of Parry who is 102. If you don't see this, you need a course in remedial statistics.

[Herlock Sholmes]

I think that the best way for the thread to continue would be an attempt to ignore Rod. We keep getting dragged down to his level. It's tiring and boring. I'd like to discuss the case with people with an open mind. Who are prepared to consider an opinion even if it conflicts with a theory. I can go to my local if I want an argument.

[Herlock Sholmes]

Does anyone sensible have an opinion on why all the downstairs lights were off when Wallace got home?
Would a stranger or Wallace have been likeliest to leave the house in darkness?

[RodCrosby]

Because he can’t give intelligent, reasoned answers.

He’s now taken to responding in numbers

Next time you ask me a question AS I’ll just say: because 7+8=15

"Pure mathematics is, in its way, the poetry of logical ideas." - Albert Einstein

Holmes was a natural mathematician too, familiar with Bayesian inference.

“I have devised seven different explanations, each of which would cover the facts as far as we know them. But which of these is correct can only be determined by the fresh information which we shall no doubt find waiting for us.” - The Adventure of the Copper Beeches

But to find that "fresh information", one must observe, which is beyond the capacity of trolls, and the usual internet empty-shirts, with their thousands of self-indulgent posts leading precisely nowhere....

Thus the true student of Holmes has arrived at the Correct Solution to the Wallace Case by following his methods...

cue headless chickens...

[RodCrosby]

Lights, etc...

At least three obvious reasons come to mind.

[Herlock Sholmes]

AS, I think that the ash bin suggestion is the likeliest so far as to how the weapon was disposed of. Not conclusive of course but likeliest.
Wallace could also have just hidden it somewhere on his route or on a minor detour. Things get hidden; sometimes they get found sometimes they don’t.

After all we can eliminate the idea of a sneak thief taking away on logical grounds.

To repeat - he would have worn gloves therefore there would have been no prints on the weapon.
The weapon could in no way be connected to him.
Therefore he had categorically no reason to remove it.
Indeed removing it would needlessly have increased the risk of blood contamination. It might even have introduced a risk, however slight, of being seen in possession.
With the ‘plan’ saying that Wallace would have been away for between an hour and an hour and a half there was no chance of Wallace returning. The thief had been there much less than an hour (unless he dropped off to sleep of course!)
In a quiet street, at night, at a household that had few visitors even in daylight, it would be ludicrous in the extreme for someone to suggest, let’s say something like, he might have needed to fight his way out like Rambo!

[RodCrosby]

Idiot Alert....Idiot Alert....Idiot Alert....Idiot Alert....Idiot Alert....

AS, I think that the ash bin suggestion is the likeliest...

Really, bozo?

The ash-bins were set in the wall, with the flap on the inner side, behind A LOCKED GATE.

They took three men to lift them out...

You're the same muppet who was screaming last week that Wallace was guilty because he carried on looking for Qualtrough, until I demonstrated from the Trial Transcript that that was exactly what the Policeman suggested he do...

Do you have some masochistic desire to be shot down in flames every time you open that stupid hole in your face?

You know nothing about this case or any case. Pure malignant disinformation and idiocy. All you have to offer is verbal diarrhoea...

[Herlock Sholmes]

You know AS, I can’t for the life of me recall suggesting that Wallace himself removed the ash bin. Like I can’t recall the police saying that they rummaged through all the ash bins looking for an iron bar, can you?

Strange that

Maybe they didn’t?

Oh and remember what the policeman said? That there was categorically no Menlove Gardens East.

It’s a bit to easy this.

Somethings there, in black and white, and you read it

Some people struggle though don’t you think?

Maybe they just know that they’ve been caught out for the 500th time twisting facts to fit and their fragile self esteem won’t allow them to admit it?

What do you think AS?

As there’s no one worth discussing the case with I’m off to bed.

Others should do the same. They’ve probably got 3 lapdancers waiting for them