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  • Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes View Post

    Clearly any attempt at being polite to you George makes no difference. I’ve questioned your interpretation as you’ve questioned mine. Now you accuse me of deliberate falsehoods. No matter, I think I’ll survive.

    You clearly have been infected by the drivel posted by NBFN and Michael. You are no equally obsessed with trying to prove that Louis was covering something up.



    What time did Eagle get to the yard with Schwartz? The doctors being, I believe, about a minute or so from Dutfield’s Yard.
    My name is Dave. You cannot reach me through Debs email account

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes View Post
      I’ve just re-read to get a fuller picture. I know recall the reasons for saying that Lamb mistook Johnston for Blackwell. It was an error of memory. There really would be no point in me lying about a demonstrable fact like this. It’s in black and white. So….
      Hi Herlock,

      I hope I am not misreading in seeing this as an apology, for which I say thank you. My frustration level was high with your continuing to use as corroboration for 1:00 a man who wasn't there and a man who never mentioned times. But I could have phrased my criticism in a more civil fashion, and for that I offer my apologies.

      Cheers, George
      “Contrariwise,” continued Tweedledee, “if it was so, it might be, and if it were so, it would be but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic.”

      Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again. - Andre Gide

      Comment


      • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post
        Yes. Here's a quote form the Yarmey paper that nicely addresses that very important question.

        "...Theoretical and empirical investigation of duration estimations date back to the nineteenth century with Vierordt's (1868) discovery that short intervals tend to be overestimated and longer ones under-estimated. This finding is now commonly referred to as `Vierordt's Law'. ..."

        You can see in the table, that around 58 minutes estimated time, the average of the real duration is now starting to get longer than the estimated time, which would increase if we continued to even longer durations. That's been known since the 1800s (as the quote points out).
        I see. Vierordt's Law - I will have to keep that one in mind.

        I haven't suggested anything about Diemshutz, but, I've got the "searches" starting at 1 (Dr. Blackwell's watch time).

        So, that means we have to have Diemshutz arrive, check the body, and get people to start things. Those events would require some time. If you think those probably could be done in a minute then according to Dr. Blackwell's watch, that would suggest Diemshutz arrives at 12:59. If you think those events would take 2 minutes, then 12:58. If you think those things took 15 minutes, then 12:45.

        What I'm pointing out is that, if the searches began at 1, the times line up well.

        And, given the errors associated with the information we have, the search could even start later than one, which means Diemshutz's arrival at 1 o'clock does not conflict.

        Meaning, Diemshutz appears to have arrived very close to 1 o'clock according to Dr. Blackwell's watch, though it could be argued he arrived on either side of 1. As I've presented things above, it would be shortly before 1, by maybe a minute or two. But the variation we have to consider means he could have arrived shortly after by a minute or two as well.
        If Diemschitz arrival time is what you are trying to prove more or less correct, then the searches should not start at 1am, but some time after.

        Could Diemschitz have really arrived a minute or two after one, and still be compatible with Blackwell's watch? That would mean the search does not begin until 1:03 or 04, and as you have used Vierordt's Law to convert Lamb's 10-12 minutes to about 9 minutes, we are already out to at least 1:12, with zero seconds of search time.

        I tend to favour the sequential reading as well, but what I favour could be wrong, so when presenting the analysis one has to consider it in light of competing theories. In this case, the analysis doesn't conflict with either, so it doesn't help us differentiate between them.
        If you're going to use Vierordt's Law to interpret subjective timespans, then I would have thought this should be done consistently. For Spooner that would mean adding his victim observation period (estimated), to the 4 or 5 minutes he said he stood by the body. That would be 5 or 6 minutes of subjective time. The 4 minutes adjusted to 2:49 that you allow for Spooner, would take Lamb's arrival out to 1:04:36, but I think it should be more than that.

        The phrase "almost immediately" is a very subjective phrasing. Even in the sequential version Lamb arrives a couple minutes later, so that's hardly conflicting.
        In the DT, the phrasing is; At the very same moment Eagle and the constables arrived.

        Smith isn't reporting his times based on Dr. Blackwell's watch though, so Smith's statement, and the time you're comparing it to, come from two different clocks.
        If you're arguing that Diemschitz claimed arrival time is a good match for Blackwell's watch, then aren't you implicitly arguing that Smith's time was wrong?
        Andrew's the man, that is not blamed for nothing

        Comment


        • Hi Jeff,

          Thank you for that wealth of information. You are to this forum what the Oracle of Delphi was to the ancient Greeks. Without questioning the results of the study in any way, I have to confess to some surprise at seeing an estimate of 20 minutes could actually range from 9 to 48 minutes. If we were able to gather all times and apply corrections for errors and to convert to GMT, which of course we are not, we would probably arrive at a timeline that nobody anticipated.

          As you are no doubt aware, there were some differences between Blackwell's surgery clock and his pocket watch, as well as the newspaper reports:-

          Daily Telegraph:
          Mr. Edward Johnson: I live at 100, Commercial-road, and am assistant to Drs. Kaye and Blackwell. On Sunday morning last, at a few minutes past one o'clock, I received a call from Constable 436 H.
          Mr. Frederick William Blackwell deposed: I reside at No. 100, Commercial-road, and am a physician and surgeon. On Sunday morning last, at ten minutes past one o'clock, I was called to Berner-street by a policeman. My assistant, Mr. Johnston, went back with the constable, and I followed immediately I was dressed. I consulted my watch on my arrival, and it was 1.16 a.m.

          Times:-
          Edward Johnston said:- I live at 100, Commercial-road, and am assistant to Drs. Kay and Blackwell. About five or ten minutes past 1 on Sunday morning, I received a call from constable 436 H.
          Mr. Frederick William Blackwell said, - I live at 100, Commercial-road, and am a surgeon. At 10 minutes past 1 on Sunday morning I was called to 40, Berner-street. I was called by a policeman, and my assistant, Mr. Johnson, went back with him. I followed immediately I had dressed. I consulted my watch on my arrival, and it was just 1:10.


          But I concede that regardless of the time benchmark adopted, there are going to be contradictions.

          You said "So, that means we have to have Diemshutz arrive, check the body, and get people to start things. Those events would require some time. If you think those probably could be done in a minute then according to Dr. Blackwell's watch, that would suggest Diemshutz arrives at 12:59. If you think those events would take 2 minutes, then 12:58. If you think those things took 15 minutes, then 12:45."
          FWIW I actually did a re-enactment of pony shie to searchers exiting the gate at it came up as 1 minute and fifty seconds.

          You said "I've chosen a very narrow clock de-sync window, not because I think that's accurate (the real window is probably larger), but because we're dealing with such small differences in times when comparing various theories that if we were to accurately represent the error ranges of all of these measures I rather suspect we would end up with a clock range error closer to 20 minutes wide (+- 10 minutes)"
          I am some what gratified with this comment. When I made a similar suggestion it was not well received.

          Cheers, George
          “Contrariwise,” continued Tweedledee, “if it was so, it might be, and if it were so, it would be but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic.”

          Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again. - Andre Gide

          Comment


          • Originally posted by GBinOz View Post

            Hi Herlock,

            I hope I am not misreading in seeing this as an apology, for which I say thank you. My frustration level was high with your continuing to use as corroboration for 1:00 a man who wasn't there and a man who never mentioned times. But I could have phrased my criticism in a more civil fashion, and for that I offer my apologies.

            Cheers, George
            Hello George,

            My only issue was that you said that I’d deliberately left this out which I hadn’t. There really would have been no point in denying the existence of something that’s there in black and white. We can disagree on interpretations George but neither of us can argue that something is or isn’t written in black and white.

            The man who wasn’t there I take to be Wess? Fair enough. The man who never mentioned times? Eagle?

            Cheers.
            Regards

            Herlock Sholmes

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes View Post

              Hello George,

              My only issue was that you said that I’d deliberately left this out which I hadn’t. There really would have been no point in denying the existence of something that’s there in black and white. We can disagree on interpretations George but neither of us can argue that something is or isn’t written in black and white.

              The man who wasn’t there I take to be Wess? Fair enough. The man who never mentioned times? Eagle?

              Cheers.
              Hi Herlock,

              Not Eagle, Gilleman.

              Cheers, George
              “Contrariwise,” continued Tweedledee, “if it was so, it might be, and if it were so, it would be but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic.”

              Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again. - Andre Gide

              Comment


              • Originally posted by NotBlamedForNothing View Post

                I see. Vierordt's Law - I will have to keep that one in mind.



                If Diemschitz arrival time is what you are trying to prove more or less correct, then the searches should not start at 1am, but some time after.
                Well, it's a good thing your opening if is false. See, if I were trying prove Diemshitz's arrival time was more or less correct, I would have included Diemshitz in the analysis. I would also have great difficulty because, unless Diemshutz stopped by Dr. Blackwell's to get the time, Diemshitz's stated time is based upon a different clock.


                Could Diemschitz have really arrived a minute or two after one, and still be compatible with Blackwell's watch? That would mean the search does not begin until 1:03 or 04, and as you have used Vierordt's Law to convert Lamb's 10-12 minutes to about 9 minutes, we are already out to at least 1:12, with zero seconds of search time.
                Yes. Once you take in the wide margins of error associated with all of the data we have. All but Blackwell's arrival time at the scene are based upon estimations, which, if you look at the data, you can see are associated with margins of error wide enough to incorporate almost anything you want to imagine.

                Ok, Dr. Blackwell arrives at 1:16.
                We'll go with 9 minutes for the Lamb-Johnson interval as you suggest above.
                Johnson arrives, and he estimates he arrived 3-4 minutes before Blackwell, which would translate to 2m 2s - 2m 49s (we'll call that 2-3 minutes though).
                So Johnson arrives around 1:13-1:14.
                Lamb estimates Johnson's arrival 9 minutes prior, making Lamb's arrival at 1:04-1:05.

                The round trip from the yard to Lamb and back we worked out to roughly 2m 24s,
                Meaning that trip started between 1:01:36-1:02:36.
                And if you go with a sequential search, the first trip started 1m 47 seconds earlier, so between 12:59:51 and 1:00:51.

                Add a couple minutes for Diemshutz's activities, and Diemshutz arrives between 12:58 and 12:59.

                Allow for clocks to be out of sync, and Diemshutz's 1 o'clock is entirely consistent. In fact, no adjustment is required if one allows for Diemshutz's original statement of "about 1o'clock" rather than his more precise "exactly at 1 o'clock" given at the inquest. I suspect he did look at the clock, noted he was home "at one", which is typically how people think of the time even if the clock technically reads 12:58, type thing. Later, he remembers that he noted the time to be 1 o'clock, and so that's what he states. But, given clock desync, we don't have to go with that as different clocks different times requires no explanation other than they weren't the same clock.

                So, there is nothing implausible about Diemshutz's claim to have arrived at 1. I'm not saying that proves he arrived at that time, I'm just saying it doesn't conflict with the testimonies, particularly once one recognizes the error that is associated with the stated times and durations.



                If you're going to use Vierordt's Law to interpret subjective timespans, then I would have thought this should be done consistently. For Spooner that would mean adding his victim observation period (estimated), to the 4 or 5 minutes he said he stood by the body. That would be 5 or 6 minutes of subjective time. The 4 minutes adjusted to 2:49 that you allow for Spooner, would take Lamb's arrival out to 1:04:36, but I think it should be more than that.
                I see we came to the same time for Lamb, between 1:04 and 1:05.


                In the DT, the phrasing is; At the very same moment Eagle and the constables arrived.


                If you're arguing that Diemschitz claimed arrival time is a good match for Blackwell's watch, then aren't you implicitly arguing that Smith's time was wrong?
                In the sense that Smith's time doesn't match with Dr. Blackwell's watch, yes. Why do you think Smith would know what time Dr. Blackwell's watch read?

                - Jeff

                Comment


                • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

                  Hi,

                  This got me thinking of PC Harvey in the Eddowes' case. In his testimony he indicates he would check the time at the post office clock during each beat. This would make sense, as each beat he would then be able to check if he's on schedule, ahead, or behind, in order to pace himself to the regulation 2.5 mph patrol speed. Checking multiple clocks along the way would be unnecessary, particularly once a PC was used to their beat. I suspect Smith would have done something similar, and somewhere on his beat there was a clock that he used to time each round, and would use that to note the time he should pass it next. Once familiar with the beat, and knowing how long it generally takes, he would have a pretty good, if not entirely accurate, idea of the time simply based upon how far along in the beat he was.

                  - Jeff
                  Hi Jeff,

                  I can see merit in your logic. I have done some pondering on what you were saying about Smith and re-examined his deposition.

                  William Smith, 452 H Division: On Saturday last I went on duty at ten p.m. My beat was past Berner- street, and would take me twenty-five minutes or half an hour to go round. I was in Berner-street about half-past twelve or twenty-five minutes to one o'clock, and having gone round my beat, was at the Commercial-road corner of Berner-street again at one o'clock.

                  12:30 - 12:35 + 30 - 25 minutes for his beat comes up to 1:00. Alternatively, using mean values, 12:32.5 + 27.5 minutes = 1:00. So his math is OK.
                  He then says that, having finished his beat he was back at his beat starting point at the intersection of Commercial and Berner at 1:00. So why would Smith consider this intersection to be the start of his beat? He could use any point as the start point. Gower's walk, for instance, when he makes a u-turn and walks back over ground just covered would seem a logical start point. I would suggest that he chose the intersection because this is the location of the clock that he is using to check if he's on schedule and the time he is taking to complete a beat. Following on from this, it would then make sense for Lamb to be using the same clock for his beat. What do you think.

                  Cheers, George
                  Last edited by GBinOz; 11-28-2021, 02:35 AM.
                  “Contrariwise,” continued Tweedledee, “if it was so, it might be, and if it were so, it would be but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic.”

                  Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again. - Andre Gide

                  Comment


                  • Hi Jeff,

                    I just had another look at Smith's beat as addressed here: https://www.casebook.org/dissertatio...iths-beat.html

                    From Smith's account at the inquest, his beat started at the intersection of Commercial and Gower's Walk and headed east along Commercial Road to Christian St. But for time purposes his beat started at the corner of Commercial and Berner. I think this is a strong pointer to the Harris clock being his time benchmark.

                    Cheers, George
                    “Contrariwise,” continued Tweedledee, “if it was so, it might be, and if it were so, it would be but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic.”

                    Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again. - Andre Gide

                    Comment


                    • Hi George,

                      Originally posted by GBinOz View Post

                      Hi Jeff,

                      I can see merit in your logic. I have done some pondering on what you were saying about Smith and re-examined his deposition.

                      William Smith, 452 H Division: On Saturday last I went on duty at ten p.m. My beat was past Berner- street, and would take me twenty-five minutes or half an hour to go round. I was in Berner-street about half-past twelve or twenty-five minutes to one o'clock, and having gone round my beat, was at the Commercial-road corner of Berner-street again at one o'clock.

                      12:30 - 12:35 + 30 - 25 minutes for his beat comes up to 1:00. Alternatively, using mean values, 12:32.5 + 27.5 minutes = 1:00. So his math is OK.
                      He then says that, having finished his beat he was back at his beat starting point at the intersection of Commercial and Berner at 1:00. So why would Smith consider this intersection to be the start of his beat? He could use any point as the start point. Gower's walk, for instance, when he makes a u-turn and walks back over ground just covered would seem a logical start point. I would suggest that he chose the intersection because this is the location of the clock that he is using to check if he's on schedule and the time he is taking to complete a beat. Following on from this, it would then make sense for Lamb to be using the same clock for his beat. What do you think.

                      Cheers, George
                      Originally posted by GBinOz View Post
                      Hi Jeff,

                      I just had another look at Smith's beat as addressed here: https://www.casebook.org/dissertatio...iths-beat.html

                      From Smith's account at the inquest, his beat started at the intersection of Commercial and Gower's Walk and headed east along Commercial Road to Christian St. But for time purposes his beat started at the corner of Commercial and Berner. I think this is a strong pointer to the Harris clock being his time benchmark.

                      Cheers, George
                      I think you could build a case for that, but consider the following.

                      Going back to FrankO's timeline of events (post 451 in the "The Schwartz/BS Man situation - My opinion only" thread) we have:

                      19. P.C. Lamb arrives, followed by PC 426 H
                      20. P.C. 426 is sent for Blackwell, Eagle for Inspector Pinhorn
                      21. Lamb blows his whistle
                      22. P.C. Albert Collins arrives as a result of the whistle (Smith sees 2 constables on his arrival and PC 426 isn’t at the scene then)
                      23. P.C. Smith arrives at the scene

                      Points 20-22 could all happen very quickly, so really, PC Smith arriving after PC Lamb, would place PC Smith's arrival sometime after 1:04-1:05 based upon my post 2602, which is the same as what NBFN came up with as well (for PC Lamb).

                      PC Smith gives a 5 minute range, for both his previous patrol (12:30-12:35) and for his beat circuit (25-30 minutes). Given PC's have to note the time of their patrols, we wouldn't view his 25-30 minute patrol time as an estimate, so we don't use the estimation tables for that.

                      Now, if he checked the clock as you suggest to time stamp, then he should be able to state the time of his patrol, since he's just started it again, yet we have 12:30-12:35, which doesn't look like a recent time update.

                      If we use PC Smith's time of 12:30 as his patrol, then 1:00 would suggest a 30 minute round, and 12:35 would suggest a 25 minute round. But of course 12:35 + 30 minutes, means he would be at the top of Berner Street at 1:05 just when PC Lamb has arrived, and so by the time he gets to the scene, PC Lamb is there, etc.

                      There's nothing in the testimony that prohibits PC Smith passing PC426 who is on his way to fetch the doctor, etc.

                      And, it also means, we're viewing his time with a 5 minute window, the same as the window he gave for the previous round at about the same point - only this time he didn't state both options.

                      The alternative, of course, is that we suggest the Harris clock is out by 5 minutes realtive to Dr. Blackwell's watch (the times above are all locked to Dr. Blackwell's watch), in which case Diemshutz read the clock at 12:55 as 1:00, either due to the angle of viewing, or due to having, when he looked, saw it was "about 1:00". When later he has to recall the time he arrived he remembers thinking it was "about 1:00" when he looked at the clock - you know, he remembers what the time was when he checked - that doesn't mean he recalls a visual image of the clock hands and re-reads the time off that, it means he's going to recall how he thought of the time at the time).

                      We end up, though, with either Deimshutz misreading the Harris clock to make PC Smith fit and also that the Harris clock is out by 5 minutes relative to Dr. Blackwells, or we have the two clocks pretty close to each other, and PC Smith didn't have time to reverify his time due to the commotion, and he's doing as he did before, calculating the time based upon his beat patrol time, which means his arrival at the scene around 1:05 would fit with his testimony.

                      I think any of those could work. And sure, the Harris Clock is on his beat, and so it could be the one he uses. But if he does, his having to state his previous patrol time as being 12:30-12:35 suggests he didn't check every round. Given the commotion at the scene, it then becomes reasonable to question if he checked then. His lack of stating how he knew the time means we do not know where the clock was that he used, or how often he checked it. We can suggest one, but we cannot know if that suggestion is true. What is true is that he doesn't state the time of his last patrol specifically, he only gives us a range, and that doesn't sound very clock-like to me, making me think whatever clock he did check was far enough back in his beat that he was now calculating a time. But that's my impression, it may not be yours.

                      - Jeff

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post
                        Hi George,





                        I think you could build a case for that, but consider the following.

                        Going back to FrankO's timeline of events (post 451 in the "The Schwartz/BS Man situation - My opinion only" thread) we have:

                        19. P.C. Lamb arrives, followed by PC 426 H
                        20. P.C. 426 is sent for Blackwell, Eagle for Inspector Pinhorn
                        21. Lamb blows his whistle
                        22. P.C. Albert Collins arrives as a result of the whistle (Smith sees 2 constables on his arrival and PC 426 isn’t at the scene then)
                        23. P.C. Smith arrives at the scene

                        Points 20-22 could all happen very quickly, so really, PC Smith arriving after PC Lamb, would place PC Smith's arrival sometime after 1:04-1:05 based upon my post 2602, which is the same as what NBFN came up with as well (for PC Lamb).

                        PC Smith gives a 5 minute range, for both his previous patrol (12:30-12:35) and for his beat circuit (25-30 minutes). Given PC's have to note the time of their patrols, we wouldn't view his 25-30 minute patrol time as an estimate, so we don't use the estimation tables for that.

                        Now, if he checked the clock as you suggest to time stamp, then he should be able to state the time of his patrol, since he's just started it again, yet we have 12:30-12:35, which doesn't look like a recent time update.

                        If we use PC Smith's time of 12:30 as his patrol, then 1:00 would suggest a 30 minute round, and 12:35 would suggest a 25 minute round. But of course 12:35 + 30 minutes, means he would be at the top of Berner Street at 1:05 just when PC Lamb has arrived, and so by the time he gets to the scene, PC Lamb is there, etc.

                        There's nothing in the testimony that prohibits PC Smith passing PC426 who is on his way to fetch the doctor, etc.

                        And, it also means, we're viewing his time with a 5 minute window, the same as the window he gave for the previous round at about the same point - only this time he didn't state both options.

                        The alternative, of course, is that we suggest the Harris clock is out by 5 minutes realtive to Dr. Blackwell's watch (the times above are all locked to Dr. Blackwell's watch), in which case Diemshutz read the clock at 12:55 as 1:00, either due to the angle of viewing, or due to having, when he looked, saw it was "about 1:00". When later he has to recall the time he arrived he remembers thinking it was "about 1:00" when he looked at the clock - you know, he remembers what the time was when he checked - that doesn't mean he recalls a visual image of the clock hands and re-reads the time off that, it means he's going to recall how he thought of the time at the time).

                        We end up, though, with either Deimshutz misreading the Harris clock to make PC Smith fit and also that the Harris clock is out by 5 minutes relative to Dr. Blackwells, or we have the two clocks pretty close to each other, and PC Smith didn't have time to reverify his time due to the commotion, and he's doing as he did before, calculating the time based upon his beat patrol time, which means his arrival at the scene around 1:05 would fit with his testimony.

                        I think any of those could work. And sure, the Harris Clock is on his beat, and so it could be the one he uses. But if he does, his having to state his previous patrol time as being 12:30-12:35 suggests he didn't check every round. Given the commotion at the scene, it then becomes reasonable to question if he checked then. His lack of stating how he knew the time means we do not know where the clock was that he used, or how often he checked it. We can suggest one, but we cannot know if that suggestion is true. What is true is that he doesn't state the time of his last patrol specifically, he only gives us a range, and that doesn't sound very clock-like to me, making me think whatever clock he did check was far enough back in his beat that he was now calculating a time. But that's my impression, it may not be yours.

                        - Jeff
                        Hi Jeff,

                        My impression is that Smith was stating how long it usually took him to complete his round, which would vary according to any disturbances he may have had to address, or anything unusual that he may have had to investigate. When Frank and I, and I seem to remember you were involved, were trying to work out how Smith patrolled the internal streets of his beat, the conclusion was that he walked down Berner St, turned around at Fairclough, and return back up Berner St, so to complete this he probably was in Berner St for about five minutes. When he said 12:30-12:35, he wasn't talking about a point time but a total time in the street.

                        I am in no doubt that when he spotted all the commotion, Smith didn't check the Harris clock as it was on the opposite side of Berner St, and I'm sure he would have run straight to the yard. But it makes sense to me that Lamb and Smith would have been using the same clock as their time benchmark. So I believe Lamb would have checked the clock at least on his way east towards the fixed point if not on the way back as well after the alarm was raised.

                        Frank's timeline is in an almost permanent tab on my computer. His point "19, P.C. Lamb arrives, followed by PC 426 H", indicates to me that Lamb had told PC 426 H (Ayliffe) that he had a minute or two before his release time of one o'clock. Herlock disagrees with me here insisting that the fixed point PC had to be released by the supervising Sergeant, but I would think that if that Sergeant were there to release him the Sergeant would have come to the yard as well when th alarm was raised. The fact that the fixed point PC was following Lamb indicates to me that he was called by Eagle and Koze before or at one o'clock. This would support Johnson's testimony that Ayliffe arrived a few minutes after one o'clock. Smith testified: When I came to the spot two constables had already arrived. The gates at the side of the club were not then closed. I do not remember that I passed any person on my way down. I saw that the woman was dead, and I went to the police-station for the ambulance, leaving the other constables in charge of the body. Dr. Blackwell's assistant arrived just as I was going away. This seems to confirm that there was a disparity between police time and Blackwell's pocket watch time, IMO about 7 minutes.

                        If we allow two minutes from pony shy to search parties departure, and four minutes for a sequential search and apply that to a Lamb call time of 12:59, we have Diemshitz turning into Berner at about 12:53. That would, I should think, qualify as about one o'clock as he originally said. It also would not unduly disturb times by Mortimer (adjusted), Letchford and Schwartz. I used Google maps to determine that when Diemshitz said he saw the clock he would have been in the middle of Commercial Road nearly 15 metres from the clock. Apart from my doubt that he could have seen the clock from there past the palister facade, I also wonder why he would have, while trying to cross a major thoroughfare in the dark, felt the need to know the time when he was less than a minute from home. Your speculation on his mental processing seems more likely.

                        I still believe that all the time differences, including those of Koze and Hosch, can be resolved with clock sync adjustments. With so many witnesses sourcing their estimates from so many different clocks, there would be many sync corrections to make.

                        Cheers, George
                        Last edited by GBinOz; 11-28-2021, 06:14 AM.
                        “Contrariwise,” continued Tweedledee, “if it was so, it might be, and if it were so, it would be but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic.”

                        Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again. - Andre Gide

                        Comment


                        • Trying to delete double post.
                          Last edited by GBinOz; 11-28-2021, 06:20 AM.
                          “Contrariwise,” continued Tweedledee, “if it was so, it might be, and if it were so, it would be but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic.”

                          Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again. - Andre Gide

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

                            Well, it's a good thing your opening if is false. See, if I were trying prove Diemshitz's arrival time was more or less correct, I would have included Diemshitz in the analysis. I would also have great difficulty because, unless Diemshutz stopped by Dr. Blackwell's to get the time, Diemshitz's stated time is based upon a different clock.
                            So what are you comparing Blackwell's time to? If Diemschitz has nothing to do with it, why did you chose 1am as the starting point for the search, and not say, 12:55 or 1:05?

                            Ok, Dr. Blackwell arrives at 1:16.
                            We'll go with 9 minutes for the Lamb-Johnson interval as you suggest above.
                            Johnson arrives, and he estimates he arrived 3-4 minutes before Blackwell, which would translate to 2m 2s - 2m 49s (we'll call that 2-3 minutes though).
                            So Johnson arrives around 1:13-1:14.
                            Lamb estimates Johnson's arrival 9 minutes prior, making Lamb's arrival at 1:04-1:05.

                            The round trip from the yard to Lamb and back we worked out to roughly 2m 24s,
                            Meaning that trip started between 1:01:36-1:02:36.
                            And if you go with a sequential search, the first trip started 1m 47 seconds earlier, so between 12:59:51 and 1:00:51.
                            The round trip from the yard to Lamb and back, assumes that Eagle did just that, but this ignores Spooner's ~6 minutes of subjective time, prior to Lamb's arrival. So that would have the search starting at between about 12:58 and 12:59:30.

                            Add a couple minutes for Diemshutz's activities, and Diemshutz arrives between 12:58 and 12:59.
                            So I would say as early as 12:56, and even that is assuming Blackwell's watch is not ahead of time.

                            In the sense that Smith's time doesn't match with Dr. Blackwell's watch, yes. Why do you think Smith would know what time Dr. Blackwell's watch read?
                            I'm only interested in what we suppose Blackwell's watch read. I assume that the police would have used clocks that were known to be kept to an accurate time. The discrepancy between Smith's testimony and the calculated time(s) of Lamb's arrival, suggest that Blackwell's watch was not reading the correct time.
                            Andrew's the man, that is not blamed for nothing

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                            • Originally posted by GBinOz View Post

                              My impression is that Smith was stating how long it usually took him to complete his round, which would vary according to any disturbances he may have had to address, or anything unusual that he may have had to investigate. When Frank and I, and I seem to remember you were involved, were trying to work out how Smith patrolled the internal streets of his beat, the conclusion was that he walked down Berner St, turned around at Fairclough, and return back up Berner St, so to complete this he probably was in Berner St for about five minutes. When he said 12:30-12:35, he wasn't talking about a point time but a total time in the street.
                              I think it was concluded that a beat constable would never do that - go down a street (or up), and then immediately turn around and traverse it in the opposite direction. It would be better to do the return leg at a later stage, to spread out the surveillance of that street.

                              The upshot of this is that Stride and companion did not suddenly appear, but may have already been on the street for a few minutes or more. That could mean she were on the street at 12:30, which is rather interesting.

                              I am in no doubt that when he spotted all the commotion, Smith didn't check the Harris clock as it was on the opposite side of Berner St, and I'm sure he would have run straight to the yard. But it makes sense to me that Lamb and Smith would have been using the same clock as their time benchmark. So I believe Lamb would have checked the clock at least on his way east towards the fixed point if not on the way back as well after the alarm was raised.
                              Smith: I saw a crowd of people outside the gates of No. 40. I did not hear any cries of "Police." When I got there I saw constables 12 H R and 252 H.

                              What makes you think he ran? Lamb knew of the murder before he arrived, but why would Smith know likewise? Another reason to suppose there was a substantial delay between Lamb and Smith's arrival, is that Smith does not seem to have passed Ayliffe, as the later proceeded to the surgery.

                              I used Google maps to determine that when Diemshitz said he saw the clock he would have been in the middle of Commercial Road nearly 15 metres from the clock. Apart from my doubt that he could have seen the clock from there past the palister facade, I also wonder why he would have, while trying to cross a major thoroughfare in the dark, felt the need to know the time when he was less than a minute from home.
                              Good point. The time at that point would be the least of his concerns, especially if he were a bit early getting home, due to wet weather.
                              Andrew's the man, that is not blamed for nothing

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                              • Originally posted by GBinOz View Post

                                Hi Jeff,

                                My impression is that Smith was stating how long it usually took him to complete his round, which would vary according to any disturbances he may have had to address, or anything unusual that he may have had to investigate. When Frank and I, and I seem to remember you were involved, were trying to work out how Smith patrolled the internal streets of his beat, the conclusion was that he walked down Berner St, turned around at Fairclough, and return back up Berner St, so to complete this he probably was in Berner St for about five minutes. When he said 12:30-12:35, he wasn't talking about a point time but a total time in the street.

                                I am in no doubt that when he spotted all the commotion, Smith didn't check the Harris clock as it was on the opposite side of Berner St, and I'm sure he would have run straight to the yard. But it makes sense to me that Lamb and Smith would have been using the same clock as their time benchmark. So I believe Lamb would have checked the clock at least on his way east towards the fixed point if not on the way back as well after the alarm was raised.

                                Frank's timeline is in an almost permanent tab on my computer. His point "19, P.C. Lamb arrives, followed by PC 426 H", indicates to me that Lamb had told PC 426 H (Ayliffe) that he had a minute or two before his release time of one o'clock. Herlock disagrees with me here insisting that the fixed point PC had to be released by the supervising Sergeant, but I would think that if that Sergeant were there to release him the Sergeant would have come to the yard as well when th alarm was raised. The fact that the fixed point PC was following Lamb indicates to me that he was called by Eagle and Koze before or at one o'clock. This would support Johnson's testimony that Ayliffe arrived a few minutes after one o'clock. Smith testified: When I came to the spot two constables had already arrived. The gates at the side of the club were not then closed. I do not remember that I passed any person on my way down. I saw that the woman was dead, and I went to the police-station for the ambulance, leaving the other constables in charge of the body. Dr. Blackwell's assistant arrived just as I was going away. This seems to confirm that there was a disparity between police time and Blackwell's pocket watch time, IMO about 7 minutes.

                                If we allow two minutes from pony shy to search parties departure, and four minutes for a sequential search and apply that to a Lamb call time of 12:59, we have Diemshitz turning into Berner at about 12:53. That would, I should think, qualify as about one o'clock as he originally said. It also would not unduly disturb times by Mortimer (adjusted), Letchford and Schwartz. I used Google maps to determine that when Diemshitz said he saw the clock he would have been in the middle of Commercial Road nearly 15 metres from the clock. Apart from my doubt that he could have seen the clock from there past the palister facade, I also wonder why he would have, while trying to cross a major thoroughfare in the dark, felt the need to know the time when he was less than a minute from home. Your speculation on his mental processing seems more likely.

                                I still believe that all the time differences, including those of Koze and Hosch, can be resolved with clock sync adjustments. With so many witnesses sourcing their estimates from so many different clocks, there would be many sync corrections to make.

                                Cheers, George
                                Hi George,

                                There's many ways to interpret things. But, on the whole, I think most of the minor discrepancies can be, as you say, mopped up in clock sync error and errors of time and duration estimations. There will always be a few oddities, sometimes reflecting nothing more than the idiosyncratic way someone spoke - and their intension just isn't clear to us and we misinterpret what they meant. Or, personally accepting less of the responsibility, maybe they misspoke, or misremembered or were otherwise simply mistaken, etc. Generally, though, I think it will be possible to come up with a recreation of the events that satisfies the majority of the statements we have, and there will be one or two bits that are just way off. Given how many people we have, many estimating times, etc, sooner or later one of them is bound to be way off the mark, that's kind of expected - ask enough people, sooner or later one of them will make a larger than usual error.

                                I don't know whose clock you're referring to with regards to Deimshutz though. I've been basing things on Dr. Blackwells 1:16 reading upon his arrival, and using that as the benchmark, I would place Deimshutz more around 12:58 type thing, but there's no need to quibble over 5 minutes. I do think Smith's times are out of sync with Dr. Blackwell's watch, but that's not surprising, but with regards to the "Blackwell Standard Time", I would place Smith's arrival around 1:05 or 1:06 type thing. To the extent our times differ would probably reflect different clocks.

                                - Jeff

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