Crime series of 8....

[mic_ads]

Some might say that you just decided to include all the victims?
On the other hand, are we to understand that you specifically ruled out Annie Millwood and Ada Wilson, or were they even considered?

I think one of the biggest problems theorists face is that they do not have an agreed, common set of criteria to follow, which raises the question of your own criteria. I think many will find your data and method of interest.
So yes, please present your offering, thankyou. I just hope you're wearing kevlar..

Regards, Jon S.

Jon

The 15 victims considered were Annie Millwood, Ada Wilson, Emma Smith, Martha Tabram, Mary Ann Nichols, Annie Chapman, Elizabeth Stride, Catherine Eddowes, Mary Jane Kelly, Annie Farmer, Rose Mylett, Elizabeth Jackson, Alice McKenzie, an unknown female referred to as ‘Pinchin Street Torso’ and Frances Coles. Fairy Fay has been alluded to previously, however no details of her attack were located in records so the details were omitted from any further consideration.

Of note, in my results examining just offence behaviours that fell into the Control and Style grouping, Annie Millwood and Ada Wilson linked to each other, but no other cases. There was 70% similarity indicated.

I agree that finding common ground to start researching such matters does raise questions. What I can say is that having reviewed other approched, I took a unique route. I took each of the 15 cases, dismantled them into individual offence behaviours, that were grouped as Control, Style or Violence, that were defined as below:

Control: Behaviours displayed gaining control of the victim, including how the victim was approached.
Style: Behaviours displayed reflecting the offender's personality or personal offence style including those not necessary for the completion of the offence.
Violence: Behaviours displayed in the infliction of violence.

Once all the offence data was broken down and coded, I used a statistical program and test called Jaccard's coefficient to compare paired cases. Any similarity >.60 were retained.

Mike

[mic_ads]

I'm sorry mate but, not being that clever, could you advise me what the diagrams actually show?

Regards
Dave

Dave.
There are two charts on the attached document. The charts aim to show the paired cases that have a degree of similarity over .60 or 60%.

The 15 cases that were considered were Annie Millwood, Ada Wilson, Emma Smith, Martha Tabram, Mary Ann Nichols, Annie Chapman, Elizabeth Stride, Catherine Eddowes, Mary Jane Kelly, Annie Farmer, Rose Mylett, Elizabeth Jackson, Alice McKenzie, an unknown female referred to as ‘Pinchin Street Torso’ and Frances Coles. Fairy Fay was alluded to, however no details of her attack were located in records so the details were omitted from any further consideration.

The 15 cases were broken down into indiviudal behaviour elements that were grouped into Control, Style and Violence. Each case was compared against the others and paired cases > 60% were retained. Other combination of grouped behaviours could also be calculated.

The first chart shows the results of comparing all offence behaviours - 16 linked pairs. If you look at the icons for AMc (Alice McKenzie) and AC (Annie Chapman), the line that links them has a value of .71 or indicating 71% similarity between the two cases.

The second chart shows the results of comparing only the offence behaviours of Control and Style. The attacks on Elizabeth Stride and Frances Coles were documented as interrupted by a third party so they would not contain the full range of offence behaviours as in an uninterrupted attack. Comparing them against completed attacks would not produce clear results. The results was 27 linked pairs. Of note: MAN (Mary Ann Nichols) & AC (Annie Chapman) has 1.00 or 100% similarity, and FC & ESt had .93 or 93% similarity.

I hope this helps..

Mike

[Sally]

Hi mic_ads,

Thanks very much for posting your results.

I'm sure everybody here would be interested to hear about your methodology.

Another member of this forum recently posted a link to an article written in 2005 which used profiling in an attempt to identify which of the Whitechapel Murders were Ripper victims.

http://forum.casebook.org/showthread.php?t=6422&page=29

(post 286)

It would be interesting to compare the results of this study with your own.

Do you intend to publish your study? It would be interesting to see your full analysis.

Thanks again.

[K-453]

mic_ads, which behaviours were compared, and which matched best?

[lynn cates]

bingo

Hello Jon.

"I think one of the biggest problems theorists face is that they do not have an agreed, common set of criteria to follow"

Bingo.

Cheers.
LC

[K-453]

Hmm, a problem could be that murders resemble each other anyway, although committed by different killers. They are variations of a few methods of inflicting death: Suffocation, loss of blood, poison ...

[Wickerman]

It is this combination of statistical and evidential analysis that has produced a group of eight linked offences, that consists of Martha Tabram, Mary Ann Nichols, Annie Chapman, Elizabeth Stride, Catherine Eddowes, Mary Jane Kelly, Alice McKenzie and Frances Coles.

Some might say that you just decided to include all the victims?
On the other hand, are we to understand that you specifically ruled out Annie Millwood and Ada Wilson, or were they even considered?

I think one of the biggest problems theorists face is that they do not have an agreed, common set of criteria to follow, which raises the question of your own criteria. I think many will find your data and method of interest.
So yes, please present your offering, thankyou. I just hope you're wearing kevlar..

Regards, Jon S.

[Cogidubnus]

I'm sorry mate but, not being that clever, could you advise me what the diagrams actually show?

Regards
Dave

[mic_ads]

Throughout the numerous publications that have concluded on the 'true' number of Ripper victims, one observed feature of criticism has been the methodology and number of incidents examined before producing a final figure.

Of recent time, I find difficulty in accepting the conclusions of Trevor Marriot, due to the methodology undertaken and conclusions presented based on drawn opinion alone. There was no set approach as to how the individual crimes were compared to each other, or what criteria were used to differentiate between the individual crimes. Phrases such as possibility, suggest and perhaps were used in the conclusions, an indication of speculation.

I submit that, by using modern policing techniques to compare and analyse itemised behaviours between the 15 cases (canonical and suggested victims) in conjunction with a valid statistical approach, a complete Whitechapel crime series can be established. Degrees of similarity between individual cases, focusing on grouped behaviours (Control, Style & Violence) provided the results; for all behaviours there were 16 linked pairs and for the groups of Control and Style behaviours, there were 27 linked pairs (Please view the attached document to see the linkage charts). The statistical results were supported by further evidential examination of the individual cases that considered in the main, wound pattern analysis.

It is this combination of statistical and evidential analysis that has produced a group of eight linked offences, that consists of Martha Tabram, Mary Ann Nichols, Annie Chapman, Elizabeth Stride, Catherine Eddowes, Mary Jane Kelly, Alice McKenzie and Frances Coles.

I am happy to share these results with the forum. I appreciate not everyone will agree but that is the whole point of research - to explore, share and discuss.