Probability of Double Event

[lynn cates]

warun nicht?

Hello Maria. Sure, send me the paper.

Cheers.
LC

[mariab]

Lynn Cates wrote:
Umm, Kropotkin vs. Rombro (Krantz)? That's easy, just look for the one who is an old school socialist believing in the iron law of wages.
By the by, I think Krantz might have been the old school socialist here, although I've never read anything of his. Maybe after Morris Levy transliterates it.
As for the paper, cool. Thanks so much. And it's really-really good (as it's rather evident that hanging out with Tom Wescott, who's a bad influence in the humility department, has starting to rub off on me).

[lynn cates]

typo

Hello Maria. I regret the typo. Ich bin ein dummkopf.

Wiedersehen.
LC

[lynn cates]

Krantz

Hello Maria.

"By the by, I think Krantz might have been the old school socialist here"

He was indeed.

Cheers.
LC

[mariab]

Lynn Cates wrote:
"By the by, I think Krantz might have been the old school socialist here"
He was indeed.
That was easy, as he had Kropotkin on the other side, who was a most obvious one.
Typo, what typo? Ah, you mean “warun“? I thought typos are my speciality.

Hey, Tom, since you won't read my German socialist manifest, can I at least research about Le Grand? Do you need anything specific (from outside the UK)?

[c.d.]

Hello CD.

"remember we are only talking 180 degrees here, a simple half turn. If it was done gently by her killer while supporting her body, I don't think we can say conclusively that the cachous would have come flying out."

I freely grant that (surprise, surprise). Now, if there was a good reason for that turn (for example, ease of mutilation) fine (really).

Cheers.
LC

Hi Lynn,

The turn could have come about as a way of avoiding getting blood on his clothes. It could have been in preparation for mutilation or it could have been inadvertent, something that he did without realizing it. Perhaps he was off balance.

Again, I just don't think we can conlude that it would have made the cachous come out.

And now I have to go. Hopefully, we can take this up again tomorrow.

c.d.

[lynn cates]

getting closer

Hello CD. Again, if she is gently turned, she very well may have retained the cachous.

Off balance? Good. Keep going. She is soliciting and they walk into the yard. He strikes and cuts--everything else is as in my reconstruction--only the direction changes. He finishes by doing a gentle 180. Question: on which side is the assailant when he strikes, left or right?

Cheers.
LC

[The Grave Maurice]

I'm not sure. But I feel dizzy.

[Fisherman]

TomW:

"sometimes I say certain things for effect, such as pretending I have an inflated ego, or because it gets Fisherman going."

What the f ...NO IT DOES´NT!!!

The best,
Fisherman

[Fisherman]

Maria writes:

"the blood must have still been pretty “wet“ to have formed round circles, which actually fits with a transfer by Edward Johnson, who was the first medical person to touch her, before her blood started to dry/coagulate."

That is correct. And not correct. Let´s look, once again, at what Johnston said:

"Was blood coming from the wound? - No, it had stopped bleeding...
I left the body precisely as I found it. There was a stream of blood down to the gutter; it was all clotted. There was very little blood near the neck; it had all run away."

There was very little blood around the neck, since it had all seized bleeding. And what blood there was, had flowed away, forming a clotted stream.
A good many minutes had passed before Johnston arrived, Maria. The blood present was at that stage very sticky.
Now, what our good friend Tom has suggested is that the clots of blood on the back of Strides hand, were transferred as Johnston was trying to feel for a pulse. Let´s begin by realizing that if this had even been the case (and it was not), then he would have done what medicos always do - he would have pressed his fingers rather firmly into Strides wrist. And if he had had clotted blood on them, he would have set off perfectly clear images of his own fingerprints when doing so. They would have been impossible to miss, believe me.
Moreover, and I have told Tom this before, he would NOT have pressed his fingers against the back of her hand, since medicos ALWAYS palpate for the pulse AT THE INSIDE OF THE WRIST! The only thing he would put against the back of her hand would have been his thumb.
We must also realize that even if we are to allow for the very obvious mistake of getting his grip wrong on her hand, and if we are to believe that the clotted blood would not have produced fingerprints, we are still faced with a scenario where the medicos involved lied about the fact that Johnstons hands were bloodied.
So, all we need is a doctor who does not know how to palpate for the pulse, clotting blood that does not set off fingerprints when somebodys fingertips are dipped in it and then pressed against human skin, and a bunch of lying doctors in a high-profile murder case, and we can merrily believe in Toms musings!

Blood is a liquid that very quickly becomes sticky in contact with air, Maria. It is only as it still flows freely that we have a situation where somebody can dip his fingers in it and set of a blank surface when touching human skin. And even then, the fingers cannot be firmly pressed against that skin without giving away the fingerprints. Consequentially, if somebody did feel for Strides pulse and set off the clots, then it must have been somebody who did NOT press firmly with his fingers, but only very faintly. And somebody who palpates for a pulse in that manner, is somebody who does not know how to go about it properly. Moreover, the many clots on the back of her hand suggests that whoever palpated, palpated with THE THUMB against the inside of the wrist, whereas the four other fingers were against the back of her hand, maybe changing grip once or twice, effectively obscuring the trail of a human hand.

Right, then, if it was not Johnston - and it could not have been him, for the reasons outlined above - then it must have been somebody who was there with Stride when her blood was still flowing freely, somebody who was no medico and had only a diffuse understanding of how to palpate, someone who was perhaps even afraid to touch her, and therefore only did so with a very loose grip.

By now, I think you would have gotten my drift, Maria ...?

The best,
Fisherman

[Fisherman]

Of course, we may also ask ourselves the question why Johnston would reach in over her and fish for the right hand, hanging down over her upper belly in the darkness with the wrist in against her, when her LEFT hand was lying quite visible, wrist up, on the ground. All he needed to do in that case was to press his fingers against that wrist. He would not even have had to pick the hand up, as it was already in the kind of position that lent itself best to a palpation with the least possible handling involved.

Strange doctor, that Johnston: he palpates the wrong hand with the wrong grip, he only touches it very faintly, his fingertips for some reason converts sticky, clotted blood into freely flowing liquid, and he lies about the fact that he had been bloodied. Moreover, albeit he is only an assistant, his influence on Phillips is such that the latter does not dare to disclose his knowledge of Johnstons clumsyness.

Now, anybody who wants to buy into all of this, are of course free to do so, but I fail to see how it could ever have been passed off as non-fiction. That mystery is just as big as the mystery of the bloodied right hand.

The best,
Fisherman

[mariab]

Hello, Fisherman.
As all women, plus as having managed to regularly cut myself pretty deeply in the fingers with my blades when figure skating (which invariably results in bleeding for about an hour, shedding perfectly round biggish blood drops on the ice, which would make any trace analyst ecstatic) I happen to have noticed a few things about blood. Yes, it tends to coagulate pretty quickly, but have you never had a cut that keeps bleeding “wet“ for at least an hour? If it's deep enough, it can take up as long as that. I very much doubt that Stride “bled very little“, as you claim, although obviously she wouldn't have bled as intensely as a shark attack victim or such, when one can loose his entire blood in about 8'minutes.
Fisherman wrote:
Let´s begin by realizing that if this had even been the case (and it was not), then he would have done what medicos always do - he would have pressed his fingers rather firmly into Strides wrist. And if he had had clotted blood on them, he would have set off perfectly clear images of his own fingerprints when doing so. They would have been impossible to miss, believe me.
Moreover, and I have told Tom this before, he would NOT have pressed his fingers against the back of her hand, since medicos ALWAYS palpate for the pulse AT THE INSIDE OF THE WRIST! The only thing he would put against the back of her hand would have been his thumb.
I understand what you're saying here, but I think that it also depends on how thin Stride's wrist was, and how big the medicos' hands.
I'm pretty clear about your theory of Stride being a domestic killing, and I've read your dissertation here on casebook, which is very concise. Still, I'd have to go for a Ripper victim, not because of blood trace, but because of the probability.
By the by, what do you think about the possibility that Lynn Cates expressed on this thread last night, that Stride might have “contaminated“ herself by touching her throat before expiring?
I apologize, I probably won't be able to post here again in the next hours, as I have some stuff to take care of, and later I need to get to the airport for Berlin. I'll try to log in from Orly, and, of course, from Berlin.

[lynn cates]

heart

Hello Maria.

"have you never had a cut that keeps bleeding “wet“ for at least an hour? If it's deep enough, it can take up as long as that."

I wonder, however, if this would not depend on a beating heart? Once syncope occurs and the heart stops, would not the blood coagulate rather quickly?

Cheers.
LC

[Fisherman]

Maria:

"have you never had a cut that keeps bleeding “wet“ for at least an hour?"

Yes, I have - but never one that did so an hour after my death, and much less one that had been witnessed about by a doctor as being all clotted.

"I very much doubt that Stride “bled very little“, as you claim"

The claim does not belong to me, Maria. I was not there. But Johnston was, and HE stated that there was very little blood about the neck, and that the blood that had flowed away along the rut, was all clotted.

"I understand what you're saying here, but I think that it also depends on how thin Stride's wrist was, and how big the medicos' hands."

No. A medico NEVER palpates with his thumb, Maria. And that owes not to any consideration of size, but to the fact that he would feel his OWN pulse within the thumb if he did. It is a total no-no and probably the first lesson at any medical school.

"By the by, what do you think about the possibility that Lynn Cates expressed on this thread last night, that Stride might have “contaminated“ herself by touching her throat before expiring? "

I think that she would have been pretty thorough in doing so, considering the fact that both the back of the hand and the inside of the wrist were smeared.

The best, Maria!
Fisherman

[mariab]

Fisherman, a quick one, because I really need to be doing something else:
Fisherman wrote:
The claim does not belong to me, Maria. I was not there. But Johnston was, and HE stated that there was very little blood about the neck, and that the blood that had flowed away along the rut, was all clotted.
“Very little blood around the neck“ can mean that she had shed all the blood to the ground (as the IWMC people said), and what remained on her neck was the coagulated bit, which would stick anyway. Clearly, the Johnston chap's testimony does not show medical expertise.

Fisheramn wrote:
No. A medico NEVER palpates with his thumb, Maria. And that owes not to any consideration of size, but to the fact that he would feel his OWN pulse within the thumb if he did. It is a total no-no and probably the first lesson at any medical school.
Completely agree, but this is Victorian medicine, plus, was Johnston a real doctor? He was definitely not a Dr Bond. No time to research this now, and I'm off.
Until much later!