Probability of Double Event

[Fisherman]

Tom:

"There's only evidence that Stride was seen snoodling with many different men"

How does the evidence look that tells us that Marshalls man and BS man were not one and the same? They share the same age, they share the same body-built, they share the same height, they share the same type of clothing, they share the same colour of that clothing, they both wear peaked caps, they both lack whiskers, they both make a respectable impression. There is no point on which they differ.

When it comes to the 5.11 fair-haired Pipeman, you think that is quite enough to establish that he must have been Charles Le Grand, but when you have Marshall´s man and BS fellow being described as twin brothers, you are sure that they were different men, accosted by a soliciting Stride.

Could you expand somewhat on the methodology that leads you to these conclusions, Tom, where very few parametres allow you to establish a connection, whereas a whole bunch of them gives you the prerogative to disallow the same thing inbetween Marshalls man and BS?

The best,
Fisherman

[Phil Carter]

Hello John,

Parachuting... reminds me of something a little pertinent to all of this... a parachute is like one's mind, neither work unless they are open...

best wishes

Phil

[The Good Michael]

Parachuting... reminds me of something a little pertinent to all of this... a parachute is like one's mind, neither work unless they are open...

Unless someone folded it so it didn't work. In that case, it did work.

Mike

[Fisherman]

Mike:

"Unless someone folded it so it didn't work."

Yep, Mike. Or used only one rope leading up to the chute ...

The best,
Fisherman

[Phil Carter]

Hello Mike, Fish,

Being able to see the possibilities of parachute failure due to the reasons you give, prevents such unopenings. Going over it again and again double checks that opening up is an available option....


best wishes

Phil

[Fisherman]

In the end, Phil, it is of course all a question of where you land...!

The best,
Fisherman

[Trevor Marriott]

In the end, Phil, it is of course all a question of where you land...!

The best,
Fisherman

Hopefully not on the same side as you three !

[macknnc]

Forgive me for returning to the topic but I do want to address certain things...

Thanks to those who set me straight about the knife in Strides case..I was using only Sugden's book and 'Jack the Ripper A-Z' both of which imply (at least) a different knife was used..My copy of Cullen's book and that of Rumbelow seem to have disappeared. I have three other books I haven't gotten to yet.

When I refer to 'escalating' I am referring to the general patterns of the murders in total. Let me see if I can put this in a way that makes sense: each murder was a seperate act, in and of itself, but part of a pattern of acts escalating in violence. The Ripper killed Stride, but was frusatated in the act of mutliating the corpse...so in his mind...He wasn't finished! The "act" (so to speak) was incomplete. He sought out and found Eddowes, killed and mutliated her; thinking at that point, "There. NOW I am done for tonight..."

I know it is dangerous to try to psychoanalyze someone from 122 years later, and even more so when the "analyizer" never went to college...(drove by one once though), but psych-gobbly-gook though it sounds, it does seem to hold up upon examination...

[Fisherman]

Trevor Marriott:

"Hopefully not on the same side as you three!"

Good heavens, Trevor, if you are referring to Tom, C.d. and me, I do hope you realize that we do not land on the same side at all...?

Joking, yes?

The best,
Fisherman

[Fisherman]

Mack:

"I know it is dangerous to try to psychoanalyze someone from 122 years later"

Have you realized, Mack, that you make the same "psychoanalysis" about the Stride/Eddowes connection as they did 122 years ago? Mortuum insatiatis, and all that ...

It was the self same age that produced the wiew that any killer of his right mind would be unable to bear the shame of having done what was done to Kelly, and thus he would have killed himself.

One would have thought that such things would move on, catch up ... but no.

The best,
Fisherman

[Tom_Wescott]

When it comes to the 5.11 fair-haired Pipeman, you think that is quite enough to establish that he must have been Charles Le Grand,

You know that's not true. The resemblance is only one reason I link the two, and it's not even the most compelling reason.

but when you have Marshall´s man and BS fellow being described as twin brothers, you are sure that they were different men, accosted by a soliciting Stride.

Considering you're the only person alive who would think to suggest these two were the same man, I'm at a loss as to how to answer your question. They are in no way similar, short of being male humans.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

[c.d.]

[QUOTE=macknnc;148352]Forgive me for returning to the topic but I do want to address certain things...

Thanks to those who set me straight about the knife in Strides case..I was using only Sugden's book and 'Jack the Ripper A-Z' both of which imply (at least) a different knife was used..My copy of Cullen's book and that of Rumbelow seem to have disappeared. I have three other books I haven't gotten to yet.

Maybe I misread Sugden but I was under the impression that he concluded that it was a similar knife.

c.d.

[Fisherman]

Tom W:

"You know that's not true. The resemblance is only one reason I link the two, and it's not even the most compelling reason."

Out in the street, Tom, those were the only parametres offered. The rest you have on Le Grand is not related to the description of Pipeman.

"Considering you're the only person alive who would think to suggest these two were the same man, I'm at a loss as to how to answer your question. They are in no way similar, short of being male humans."

Actually, Tom, I was first pointed to this obvious likeness by another participator on the boards, Jon Guy, so unless he is dead, there are two of us, believe it or not.

But it seems you are now ready to dispell this fatal error of ours, and I am much intrigued as to how you are going to go about it. How did they differ, Tom?

The best,
Fisherman

[macknnc]

C.D. : Sugden indicates the knife used on 'Long Liz' had rounded point, whereas the knife used in the other killings had sharp point..Two different knives? Two different killers?
Why the one knife on Stride and then within an hour, go back to the same knife for Eddowes...

[Chava]

There were certainly other killings in the East End at that time. In fact, if I remember correctly, at one point the police linked the Nicholls and Chapman killing to the Tabram killing and the Smith killing as a possible series.

I do believe that Stride was part of the series. Probability doesn't come into it. It's more a question of type of victim, location of crime, type of assault for me.