Kates Cuts

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff
I dont believe you can compare modern day serial killings with the Whitrechapel murders. So much has changed in the past 131 years which make them incomparable.

www.trevormarriott.co.uk

Hi Trevor,

I agree that might be the case, but in the end it's an empirical question because it also might be perfectly suited to them as well - we don't know (and I don't claim that we do, though I haven't emphasized that point enough, so thanks for bringing it up). I've tried to find older, solved, cases, but it's hard to track down the maps, even when a case can be found. There are cases from the 1920s and 40s to be found, but unfortunately the ones where there is details that I can use are typically the unsolved ones (The Phantom Killer, for example), so as with JtR, we can't know if the analysis is producing as reliable an output as for modern day offenses, which is of course the data from which the routines are derived. I did have a look at the Phantom Killer case, and the prime suspect (Youell Swinney) was reported as being in a particular park with his wife (she's the one who testified), and she said he left the car they were in and was gone for over an hour, and this corresponded to the time of one of the murders near that location. The profile puts the park in zone 1 and 2, with the section where the entrace, and presumably parking lot, in the zone 2 portion. However, that's not a time pre-automobile, and it was never proven Swinney was the Phantom Killer. It is, however, interesting that the prime suspect was known to frequent the park which is in the high probability area.

The underlying theory that drives these analyses is pretty basic human behaviour (risk avoidance, efficiency of travel, etc, all described in mathematical terms), but it's whether or not the parameters that best fit modern offenders are the ones best suited for a Victorian era crime that needs to be determined. It would be nice to have a dozen or more cases from the 1800s to test out, but it would be nice to have a pony too.

At the moment, we don't have any evidence that the profiles wouldn't be accurate, but we also don't have any evidence to show they are either - because the question, while raised, hasn't been tested to determine the answer.

So again, as I say, these are for a "hmmmm, interesting" type thing, and should not be taken as evidence. And no suspect should be dismissed based upon the profile alone.

- Jeff

[Leather_Apron]

I on the other hand believe that very little has changed.

[Leather_Apron]

Thanks JeffHamm for that awesome response to my confusion.. Now that I think about it I suppose in a way JTR did choose the locations by choosing the victims themselves. Even in the case of Eddowes whom I suspect was a spur of the moment pick-up JTR was using his knowledge of the most vulnerable(Women) and "quickfix" locations. I would surmise JTR lived in a Doss house similar to his victims so those are the most likely places to begin your search. If JTR lived anywhere else beyond spitalfields then I feel it most likely he was making some sort of demented statement(Highly unlikely). If he were married then I suspect his wife or family would have played a part in his demise.

[Michael W Richards]

Letīs set you straight directly here:

What is "bleeding obvious" to some people is less so to others - that is the nature of things. Besides, many serial killers have not lived where they perpetrated their crimes, so there is nothing bleeeding obvious to see here.

My favourite suspect is not a suspect for every unsolved murder in the East End of the 1880:s, Iīm afraid. He is a suspect for every unsolved murder involving mutilations and eviscerations (and that takes us back into the 1870:s too, mind you), and that is because mutilators and eviscerators are rarer than a useful comment from you these days. I have him down for a round dozen murders, just about, give or take a few. That would not even put him in the top 100 when it comes to number of victims, so hinting at it being very strange if he killed numerous victims is simply wrong. Killing a dozen victims, probably prostitutes most or all of them, is middle of the road, sadly.

And of course, he lived directly adjacent to what is described as the murder area out here, and passed through that area on a daily basis. He has more proven opportunity and is a better geographical fit than any other suspect suggested, so whaddayouknow - you got that wrong too.

The four Stooges you have down for the canonical five murders would be a much, much rarer thing than a common evisceration killer. Then again, you donīt care much about the realities of these things, do you? Itīs all about nose cutting mafias, deluded sheep butchers and personal deeds for you, is it not? Of course, it may be that I am wrong about that - itīs just that it seems so bleeding obvious...

Goodnight, Michael.

So, youve presumed 12 people by your one suspect because you believe mutilators are that scarce? When knives were by far the easiest weapon to obtain and the most frequently used in crimes involving weapons at that time? You also know of the many, many men in that area with either the known mental illness or known violent tendencies that might have been involved in one or more murders at the time, and you know that there are lots we don't know about at all. In the most violent crime ridden section of the modern world. Living "adjacent" to the crime area is outside the immediate area, so Im not wrong at all. You know he almost certainly had someplace very close to the murder sites he was actually involved with, and that's the immediate area. He got off the streets quickly. And apparently very effectively, since we don't have any reasonable suggestion that he was seen leaving any site.

What you've done is make up your mind about a profile for the killer and then try and explain the inconsistencies away using that profile. A guy who strangles, cuts, saws, eviscerates, skins, disarticulates,...Im sure he has bad table manners too. But that's just an opinion, yours, and one formed because you try and fit the murders with a murderer profile. As I said, and its indisputable, none of even just the Five Canonicals have an established by hard evidence link to each other or a link by their respective killer(s). You've taken sand and built your castle on it...so don't chastise others when they are seeking more solid foundations.

[Trevor Marriott]

Hi Trevor,

I think you'll find I already indicated that above, but yes, you're right and if JtR was a commuter, which about 20% of offenders are, then the spatial analysis is not going to result in his residence. It will, however, still highlight areas of importance. It might, for example, highlight a major intersection, which could help suggest what route the offender enters the area, for example. I suppose the JtR profile could be viewed to highlight the intersection of Commercial and Hanbury, as that's in zone 1. So if one fancied a commuter, then if they lived in a location where that might be a reasonable entry point to the area, then this would fit that suspect. If the suspect lived south, for example, then the profile would not fit them (but if there were actual evidence against that suspect, as I've repeatedly said, the profile gets set aside).

Here's an example. In Toronto a few years back they arrested Bruce McArthur. I was able to find the locations of where 4 of his 8 victims were last seen on the nights they disappeared. And, I was able to find the location of where one of their cars was found abandoned. I didn't enter the location where they found their bodies in the planters, and where McArthur had his work (he ran his own landscaping/gardening business, and used a friend's garage to store his tools and things - he burried the bodies in large planters on their property in return). McArthur actually lives off the map below. However, he frequented the gay village, and was known to frequent a bar called "Zipperz", which is where at least one of the victims was last seen, and was a popular club in the gay community.

I called his work place the main anchor point in the crime area (blue square), and I've marked Zipperz as a place of interest (yellow square). Given the locations I've entered are where the victims were last reported being seen, and one abandoned car, these locations are probably more about where he met the victims rather than where he actually killed them (most were taken back to his residence and killed there apparently). So the profile does not find his actual residence. It does, however, locate his work place in zone 5, and Zipperz is in Zone 2, border zone 3. So no, while it won't find a commuters residence, it can still find locations associated with the offender that are in the area. And if you invest your time looking in areas where there is a greater probability of the offender having a connection, then real evidence can be found sooner. But once real leads are obtained, the profile should be ignored - any real evidence trumps a probabilistic suggestion. I would think I've made that clear by now though.





Basically, I think if you read what I've actually been saying you'll find I'm quite clear, these sorts of analysis are not magical, and they are not evidence, they are probability maps, they add probabilistic "weight" when comparing two suspects, or "persons of interest" if you prefer, meaning "person A lives in an area that is more typical of this sort of spatial pattern than person B", but that doesn't mean person B couldn't be the actual offender - it's not definitive. It does mean, though, that without something more, choosing person A will result in you being right more often than choosing person B.

- Jeff

Hi Jeff
I dont believe you can compare modern day serial killings with the Whitrechapel murders. So much has changed in the past 131 years which make them incomparable.

https://www.trevormarriott.co.uk

[JeffHamm]

Jeff
As has been said before there is no conclusive proof that the killer/killers lived in or near Whitechapel.

If the killer came from a location outside of Whitechapel, and simply came into the area to kill, and then left, all the geo profiling in the world is going to be to no avail.

Most of the murder sites are within a stones throw away from main thoroughfares.

https://www.trevormarriott.co.uk

Hi Trevor,

I think you'll find I already indicated that above, but yes, you're right and if JtR was a commuter, which about 20% of offenders are, then the spatial analysis is not going to result in his residence. It will, however, still highlight areas of importance. It might, for example, highlight a major intersection, which could help suggest what route the offender enters the area, for example. I suppose the JtR profile could be viewed to highlight the intersection of Commercial and Hanbury, as that's in zone 1. So if one fancied a commuter, then if they lived in a location where that might be a reasonable entry point to the area, then this would fit that suspect. If the suspect lived south, for example, then the profile would not fit them (but if there were actual evidence against that suspect, as I've repeatedly said, the profile gets set aside).

Here's an example. In Toronto a few years back they arrested Bruce McArthur. I was able to find the locations of where 4 of his 8 victims were last seen on the nights they disappeared. And, I was able to find the location of where one of their cars was found abandoned. I didn't enter the location where they found their bodies in the planters, and where McArthur had his work (he ran his own landscaping/gardening business, and used a friend's garage to store his tools and things - he burried the bodies in large planters on their property in return). McArthur actually lives off the map below. However, he frequented the gay village, and was known to frequent a bar called "Zipperz", which is where at least one of the victims was last seen, and was a popular club in the gay community.

I called his work place the main anchor point in the crime area (blue square), and I've marked Zipperz as a place of interest (yellow square). Given the locations I've entered are where the victims were last reported being seen, and one abandoned car, these locations are probably more about where he met the victims rather than where he actually killed them (most were taken back to his residence and killed there apparently). So the profile does not find his actual residence. It does, however, locate his work place in zone 5, and Zipperz is in Zone 2, border zone 3. So no, while it won't find a commuters residence, it can still find locations associated with the offender that are in the area. And if you invest your time looking in areas where there is a greater probability of the offender having a connection, then real evidence can be found sooner. But once real leads are obtained, the profile should be ignored - any real evidence trumps a probabilistic suggestion. I would think I've made that clear by now though.





Basically, I think if you read what I've actually been saying you'll find I'm quite clear, these sorts of analysis are not magical, and they are not evidence, they are probability maps, they add probabilistic "weight" when comparing two suspects, or "persons of interest" if you prefer, meaning "person A lives in an area that is more typical of this sort of spatial pattern than person B", but that doesn't mean person B couldn't be the actual offender - it's not definitive. It does mean, though, that without something more, choosing person A will result in you being right more often than choosing person B.

- Jeff

[Trevor Marriott]

Fantastic! I've added it in. It lands in Zone 3, which makes it very interesting.

- Jeff

Jeff
As has been said before there is no conclusive proof that the killer/killers lived in or near Whitechapel.

If the killer came from a location outside of Whitechapel, and simply came into the area to kill, and then left, all the geo profiling in the world is going to be to no avail.

Most of the murder sites are within a stones throw away from main thoroughfares.

https://www.trevormarriott.co.uk

[JeffHamm]

Fantastic! I've added it in. It lands in Zone 3, which makes it very interesting.

- Jeff

[jerryd]

Jeff,

Here is the Goads map for Windsor Street. (bottom right)

[jerryd]

Ah, thanks. I'm having a hard time locating Windsor Street. It's not showing up on the online maps. Sigh.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Times (London)

Tuesday, 2 October 1888

Many adverse remarks have been made concerning the want of vigilance on the part of the police in connexion with the outrages; but it should be remembered, as urged by them, that the women are of a class who know that they are liable to punishment if detected, and who, therefore, go alone to the places where they agree to meet their male companions. Shortly after the first horrible murders were committed some weeks ago, special precautions were taken by the City Police authorities with a view to detect the criminal or criminals, several plain-clothes constables being ordered on the beats in the district which has now become so notorious. Instructions were given to the constables to watch any man and woman seen together in suspicious circumstances, and especially to observe any woman who might be seen alone in circumstances of a similar nature. At about the time when the Mitre-square murder was being committed two of the extra men who had been put on duty were in Windsor-street, a thoroughfare about 300 yards off, engaged, pursuant to their instructions, in watching certain houses, it being thought possible that the premises might be resorted to at some time by the murderer. Five minutes after the discovery of the murder in Mitre-square, the two officers referred to heard of it, and the neighbourhood was at once searched by them, unfortunately without result. It is believed that had any man and woman been in company with each other going to Mitre-square they must have been observed, and that the man in that case would have been detected and captured. The supposition of the police is that the murderer and the ill-fated woman went to the place separately, having made an appointment. The general impression is that no man in his right senses could have perpetrated such a series of dreadful crimes. Some of the doctors who have been engaged in the examination of the bodies believe it quite possible that the murders may have been committed in from three to five minutes.

Ah, thanks. I'm having a hard time locating Windsor Street. It's not showing up on the online maps. Sigh. I've circled the Bishops Gate Police station. Do you have any idea where it is from there? Might the name have changed? (note, Dorset Street has been renamed Duval Steet on this map and is east and a little north of the station, for example).

- Jeff

[jerryd]

Oh, cool. Can you direct me to a source for that? I would like to read more about it. And do you know if there's an address on Windsor Street recorded anywhere? I'll add that to my collection of suspect locations. Thanks.

- Jeff

Times (London)

Tuesday, 2 October 1888

Many adverse remarks have been made concerning the want of vigilance on the part of the police in connexion with the outrages; but it should be remembered, as urged by them, that the women are of a class who know that they are liable to punishment if detected, and who, therefore, go alone to the places where they agree to meet their male companions. Shortly after the first horrible murders were committed some weeks ago, special precautions were taken by the City Police authorities with a view to detect the criminal or criminals, several plain-clothes constables being ordered on the beats in the district which has now become so notorious. Instructions were given to the constables to watch any man and woman seen together in suspicious circumstances, and especially to observe any woman who might be seen alone in circumstances of a similar nature. At about the time when the Mitre-square murder was being committed two of the extra men who had been put on duty were in Windsor-street, a thoroughfare about 300 yards off, engaged, pursuant to their instructions, in watching certain houses, it being thought possible that the premises might be resorted to at some time by the murderer. Five minutes after the discovery of the murder in Mitre-square, the two officers referred to heard of it, and the neighbourhood was at once searched by them, unfortunately without result. It is believed that had any man and woman been in company with each other going to Mitre-square they must have been observed, and that the man in that case would have been detected and captured. The supposition of the police is that the murderer and the ill-fated woman went to the place separately, having made an appointment. The general impression is that no man in his right senses could have perpetrated such a series of dreadful crimes. Some of the doctors who have been engaged in the examination of the bodies believe it quite possible that the murders may have been committed in from three to five minutes.

[JeffHamm]

The stakeout I am talking about was on Windsor Street, which is directly behind the Bishopsgate Police Station.

Oh, cool. Can you direct me to a source for that? I would like to read more about it. And do you know if there's an address on Windsor Street recorded anywhere? I'll add that to my collection of suspect locations. Thanks.

- Jeff

[jerryd]

Hi jerryd,

I believe the city police stakeout was further south, at the location of the "teal blue" square to the east of Mitre Square. That's located in Zone 8. I've found a few more cases to test, and the 75% cutoff is at zone 7.25 (so into zone 8), making it worthy of note.

Or we may be talking of different events? The one I'm talking about is a suspect mentioned by a PC Sagar, but I forget where I came across this (was on the board here, might be a document by AP Wolf in the dissertations maybe? That seems to ring a bell, but then, so does a rock, so that's not really a good indication).

- Jeff

The stakeout I am talking about was on Windsor Street, which is directly behind the Bishopsgate Police Station.

[JeffHamm]

Jeff,

The City Police had a suspect in mind by late September, 1888 and staked him out the night Eddowes was murdered. Whomever he was, the stakeout was in the area of your Zone 1.

Hi jerryd,

I believe the city police stakeout was further south, at the location of the "teal blue" square to the east of Mitre Square. That's located in Zone 8. I've found a few more cases to test, and the 75% cutoff is at zone 7.25 (so into zone 8), making it worthy of note.

Or we may be talking of different events? The one I'm talking about is a suspect mentioned by a PC Sagar, but I forget where I came across this (was on the board here, might be a document by AP Wolf in the dissertations maybe? That seems to ring a bell, but then, so does a rock, so that's not really a good indication).

- Jeff