Patterns of behavior and Tumblety

Originally posted by Phil Carter View Post

"(Tumblety) had been living in Birmingham and used to come up to London on Saturday nights. The police have always had their eyes on him every place he went, and finally the Birmingham Police telegraphed to the London Police that he left for London, and on his arrival he was nabbed accordingly." - Deputy Minister Smith.

I was interested by Mike Hawley's new look at Tumblety and in particular by this reference to the "medical man" who Mike has linked to Tumblety coming "up to London on Saturday nights".

I think a problem for anyone putting forward a ripper suspect is fitting them into the pattern of the canonical five in time and space.

For time I mean the pattern of the murders of the canonical five at the end of the month and the first week of the month.

Friday 31 August Mary Nichols
Saturday 8 September Annie Chapman
Sunday 30 September Elizabeth Stride/Catherine Eddowes
5/6/7/ October
26/27/28 October
Friday 9th November Mary Kelly

I think you have to explain the pattern of killing at the end of the month and a week later. To his credit Trevor Marriott has done this by linking the times of the murders to the arrival of the cattle boats.

Tumblety was not found by this approach, rather by documentary evidence from a letter that revealed newspaper articles tracing his journey back to America.

The reference to the medical man/Tumblety travelling up to London on Saturdays is the first time I had read about a pattern to his movements, even though I concede this has been in the public domain.

If Tumblety was the murderer then by travelling on Saturdays he would have been too late for two of his murders on Fridays.

The pattern of JTR was to kill at weekends (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) that hints at a 9am-5pm existence and a special treat at weekends.

A possible reason for killing at the end of the month may have been to take advantage of the darkness afforded by a new moon and a half moon the following week. This may be why there were no murders around a bright full moon (18th-21st) as darkness was needed around the alleys of the East End.

In October, the 8th and 9th did not fit neatly into a weekend and likewise the weekend of the 26/27/28 was not at the end of the month.

It is not a great reason for the lack of murders in October but the lack of a pattern in October and the reason for it is just as important.

For space, if you accept Tumblety as JTR, his movements are equally important. He was a regular visitor to the British Isles.

Years ago I heard a profiler say that a serial killer would go out of their area for a special kill, as a treat. It would be like a shopper making a special trip to a market town.

Tumblety not only chose a different country but different cities within a different country. His safe country was America and he travelled to Britain. Once in Britain his safe city was Liverpool where his niece lived. He could travel to Birmingham and London by the London & North Western Railway. If he lodged in Birmingham, it would be interesting to know whether he saw this as a safe city, a stepping stone or a destination for his crimes and also whether he would have scouted out the red light district and may have been active there. The interest is in what he was doing in this place.

The East End of London was a destination because the source of interest, poor prostitutes was there. You can speculate that he created safe areas there, dark corners in courtyards, the house in Batty Street and the hotel at Charing Cross.

When he was arrested for gross indecency you can argue that he no longer felt safe, fled back to Birmingham with a return ticket to pick up his things (or forward his uteri by parcel to America) and was picked up at Willesden. The police in Birmingham and London were watching him (and may even unwittingly have provided an alibi). If he was aware of being watched on the northern route it may explain why he used a southern route via the South Eastern & Chatham Railway to Boulogne.

In conclusion any author putting forward a suspect has to explain the timing of the murders, why they began ? and why they followed a pattern ?
Also they have to explain the space i.e. what was Tumblety was doing in Liverpool, Birmingham and London ? and specifically what are the records of his activities in Birmingham ?

If Tumblety is your man you could argue his trip to Britain was to harvest organs for his uteri collection and the trip was functional as he was quick even though the results were gruesome. The Mary Kelly murder does not fit into this pattern as it was not simply a case of organ removal as the murderer over indulged.

Tumblety has always been a favourite suspect for me and Mike Hawley has taken Evans and Gainey's work to the next level. However to take it further the patterns of the crime and Tumblety's behaviour have to be matched.

The link of Tumblety to the Euston traveller by Mike Hawley may have opened up a line of inquiry to do this. I am looking forward to developments