Originally posted by Doctored Whatsit
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The heart of your confusion lies in treating Smith’s five traits as if they were supposed to be proven facts about the Ripper himself. They aren’t. They are descriptive features of a named suspect profile recorded by a senior officer. That distinction matters.
1. What Smith gave us
Smith never said “these five traits are universally true of the killer.” He said “the man I suspected had these traits.” That is testimony. Like any police record, its value is that it narrows the field. It creates a filter. The historical question then becomes: how many men alive in London matched this precise five-trait filter?
2. Why probability belongs here
You argue that because we cannot prove the Ripper was an ex-medical student, or coin trickster, or asylum inmate, these categories have “no mathematical value.” But that misunderstands the logic. The mathematics is not about proving the killer was those things. It is about testing the chance of anyone else coincidentally matching the entire suspect description. That is what makes it probabilistic rather than anecdotal.
Think of it this way: if a witness says “the man I saw was tall, red-haired, and missing two fingers,” we don’t discard those traits because not all killers are red-haired or maimed. We test whether any known person fits that cluster. Smith’s description works the same way.
3. Independence from “possibility talk”
Yes, the Ripper could have been a slaughterman. He could have been a doctor. But Smith didn’t describe him that way. He described him as an ex-medical student, asylum inmate, etc. The point isn’t to argue slaughtermen are impossible — it’s to show that Thompson uniquely matches the profile actually given by an officer. That is what raises him above the level of “just another possibility.”
4. On Smith’s reliability
You’re right that Smith’s memoirs should be read with caution. All memoirs should. But even if you halve their reliability, the key fact remains: Thompson matches all five identifiers, in the exact geographical nexus named. The odds of that happening by chance are vanishingly small. To dismiss that convergence because Smith occasionally boasted is to throw out the fingerprint with the ink.
5. Why the case doesn’t collapse
You say collecting “possibilities” can’t make a watertight case. True — but collecting independent, unlikely convergences does build a cumulative argument. Thompson’s medical training, instruments, violent verse, breakdown, prostitute connections, and residence converge on the same man who also matches Smith’s five traits. That isn’t mere possibility stacking — it’s probability compounding.
So your confusion dissolves when you stop asking: “Did Smith prove the Ripper had these traits?” and instead ask: “Who on record fits the suspect description Smith actually gave?” Once you frame it that way, the logic is straightforward: Thompson fits it uniquely, and the chance of another man doing so by coincidence is effectively nil.
That doesn’t mean we raise a gavel and say “case closed.” It means Thompson cannot be dismissed as “interesting but irrelevant.” He sits exactly where the filter places him.
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