Let me expand a little on the danger of coincidence.
I've been in the situation many times during my research where I've developed a theory and become quite excited about the possibility of a document confirming that theory. Let's say I had worked out that if something had happened on 9th March of one year it would prove my theory and be very important. Well you can imagine my disappointment (and it usually does seem to be disappointment) when I locate the relevant document and it turns out that the thing I needed to happen on 9th March happened on 12th March. So near yet so far!!! What a shame it wasn't 9th March I would think to myself.
But then I realise that if the document had borne the date of 9th March two things would definitely have followed.
Firstly, I would have been convinced that my theory was correct. Secondly I would certainly have been wrong.
Because if the document was dated 12th March by coincidence it could easily have been dated 9th March by coincidence. That is why one needs to be very alive to the danger of coincidence when carrying out research.
One needs more than just bald coincidence to establish a connection. In this case there are so many gaps. I mean, what if Mike called Doreen for the first time at 9am on 9th March 1992? How would that be explained? Do we know it didn't happen? And what if Mike called Pan Books on an earlier day? Say on Friday 6th March? Do we know it didn't happen? If Coufopolous found the diary under the floorboards – which seems to be the latest theory (albeit not stated in terms by Robert Smith who seems to suggest it was Rigby) and some still seem to prefer Eddie Lyons (who was not even working in Battlecrease that day, according to the timesheets, and is thus "in the clear" according to Smith) as the finder – how do we know he didn't do so late in the afternoon, after Mike had called Doreen?
How do we know that Mike (a professional freelance journalist) and Anne and any accomplice or accomplices hadn't simply finished drafting the text of the diary over the weekend of 7/8 March 1992 and now, on the Monday, it was time to contact an agent?
I've been in the situation many times during my research where I've developed a theory and become quite excited about the possibility of a document confirming that theory. Let's say I had worked out that if something had happened on 9th March of one year it would prove my theory and be very important. Well you can imagine my disappointment (and it usually does seem to be disappointment) when I locate the relevant document and it turns out that the thing I needed to happen on 9th March happened on 12th March. So near yet so far!!! What a shame it wasn't 9th March I would think to myself.
But then I realise that if the document had borne the date of 9th March two things would definitely have followed.
Firstly, I would have been convinced that my theory was correct. Secondly I would certainly have been wrong.
Because if the document was dated 12th March by coincidence it could easily have been dated 9th March by coincidence. That is why one needs to be very alive to the danger of coincidence when carrying out research.
One needs more than just bald coincidence to establish a connection. In this case there are so many gaps. I mean, what if Mike called Doreen for the first time at 9am on 9th March 1992? How would that be explained? Do we know it didn't happen? And what if Mike called Pan Books on an earlier day? Say on Friday 6th March? Do we know it didn't happen? If Coufopolous found the diary under the floorboards – which seems to be the latest theory (albeit not stated in terms by Robert Smith who seems to suggest it was Rigby) and some still seem to prefer Eddie Lyons (who was not even working in Battlecrease that day, according to the timesheets, and is thus "in the clear" according to Smith) as the finder – how do we know he didn't do so late in the afternoon, after Mike had called Doreen?
How do we know that Mike (a professional freelance journalist) and Anne and any accomplice or accomplices hadn't simply finished drafting the text of the diary over the weekend of 7/8 March 1992 and now, on the Monday, it was time to contact an agent?
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