The cross/lechmere theory - a newbie's thoughts

[Newbie]

No, correct. His testimony states 'about 3:30am' there is no way we can be certain of the time he left home and Team Lechmere needs to be rather certain to prove the time gap which of course does not exist because we have no accurate timings, walking speeds, accurate routes. Too many unknowns and variables. About 3:30am could be anywhere from 3:25 to 3:35 realistically. We simply can't pinpoint times accurately so unfortunately all your fancy maths is kind of irrelevant. Sorry.



I don't insist, it's his testimony. However for the reasons above it's impossible to tell.



No of course not for the same reasons above. Once you take out accurate times the 'speed = distance ÷ time' things goes pear shaped. We also do not know the accurate distance here either so again I'm sorry but it's a pointless exercise to try and pinpoint times, distances and speeds.



Again, simply we do not know.

In establishing the speed Lechmere would need to attain to make it on time, its very simple.
He said that he left his house around 3:30 am, he knew that he had to make it to Pickford's by 4:00 am.
The distance that I'm satisfied with is 1.74 miles ... the section around Devonshire Park might be a bit different,
and the difference between going up Bath Street vs Darling might also slight vary,
and where on Liverpool street he entered the facility is not known;

but 1.74 miles, I'm happy with it.

The times are what Lechmere thought, and how far he had to go, and what time he had to get there.
We have no need to match them with PC Neil's, PC Mizen's or anyone else.
His sense of time is separate, independent, and it will influence the rate he feels he needs to go to make it to work on time.
People set a pace and pretty much stick to it on a long, pretty much uninterrupted walk.

1.74 miles/30 minutes : that's his average rate which pretty much corresponds to a constant, consistent rate that he would set.

Now, if you tell me he might have took a piss in some corner of Buck's row ..... that's possible.

More importantly, if you discovered that the Albion brewery did not have lights set up along Bath Street to prevent crime,
that would undercut somewhat the argument ... where he now would be roughly 45 yards behind Lech going up Buck's row.
Since you guys are fetched by the masking argument, okee doke! That works out well for you.
In my opinion, it still doesnt' work out.

Quite frankly, declaring that anyone's absolute time is impossible to know tells me that you misunderstand the argument.

And I'm not amused by the current effort to sweep every temporal aspect of the case under the rug and declare we know nothing.

[Geddy2112]

A lot here Geddy,
I'll just focus on some things -
If you want me to focus on others, just say so.

Hi Newbie, I think you mean Fiver since that is who you replied to.

[Newbie]

Yes absolutely, but here we are some 10 plus years later.

And Herlock with his usual auto response isn't shutting down debate.

I don't understand why?

[Newbie]

And there is this thing that bothers me in Lechmere testimony, he said:

"She looks to me to be either dead or drunk"

"In his opinion deceased looked as if she had been outraged and gone off in a swoon"


This is inconsistency, was he not decided what to say?! but more importantly how would he be able to tell what she looked like if he

Didn't notice her wide open eyes
Didn't notice the cut through her throat
Didn't notice nor feel blood oozing from the wound in her throat
Didn't notice the pool of blood where her neck was lying


Did he just base his opinion on the mere fact that she was lying on the ground?! Didn't he try to test the pulse in her neck?!



The Baron

It also concerns me a bit ... his looseness with language when he describes having discovered a dead / dying woman 4 minutes earlier.
Dead / drunk tells the policeman that one is just dealing with another alcoholic who died on the streets ..... even today not uncommon;
"You are wanted" .... although not uncommon vernacular, mislead Mizen on what happened. Mizen had lived and worked in the East end for a long, long time. He should have been aware of nuances in east end jargon.

Lech of course, had some knowlege in how beat cops of the area went about their business.

By itself, not damning ... but another WTF moment from CAL.


I thought about the eyes wide open bit in PC Neil's testmony... how dark was it? PC Neil used a lantern to discern the face.
Lechmere seemed to prefer that Paul not find that out, but it would hardly sink him if Paul did.

Lechmere certainly seemed to position himself over the upper portion - holding her hand,
compelling Paul to investigate the lower region.

If I were Paul, I'd be half watching the new guy to my left who I first spotted moments ago, next to the body.

In the end, Paul was the guy Lechmere had to convince, if he killed Polly Nichols and put on a bluff.

No PC was going to check him for a knife, as Christer suggests, unless he acted guilty.

[Newbie]

A. Requires that Robert Paul neither see nor hear Lechmere clean and put away a knife, move from facing west crouched over the body on the south pavement to standing in the middle of the road facing east. Some versions also throw in Lechmere lifting up the body to try to pull the skirts down. If Paul noticed any of this, then Lechmere's story would have been an obvious lie to Paul. By Paul's own testimony, he was initially afraid of Lechmere, which to any killer smarter than a paving stone, would have been interpreted as Paul knows he is the murderer and mustbe silenced.

B. Lechmere's testimony tells us nothing about whether Paul was walking slower, faster, or the same pace as Lechmere. Based on the distances to their work places, we would expect Lechmere to be walking faster.

C. Science tells us that is exactly the point that Lechmere would start noticing Paul's footsteps.

"On Friday morning he left home about half past three to go to work, and passing through Buck's row he saw on the opposite side something lying against a gateway. In the dark he could not tell at first what it was. It looked like a tarpaulin sheet, but walking to the middle of the road he saw it was the figure of a woman. At the same time he heard a man about forty yards away coming up Buck's row in the direction witness had himself come." - Daily News, 4 September 1888.

At the point that Lechmere identified that it was a woman, his visual perception load dropped significantly, which science tells us is exactly when Lechmere would be most likely to become much better at noticing auditory stimuli.

Then there is the well known phenomenon of auditory masking. where loader sounds mask softer ones. According to the Journal of Neuroscience, "neural responses to ... self-generated sounds are attenuated." That means that self-generated sounds receive less focus, making it easier to detect external sound sources, not that they are completely ignored. But "the responsiveness of auditory cortical neurons to external sounds is reduced not only during vocalizations but during a variety of behaviors, including locomotion". So Lechmere walking would reduce his perception of both his own footsteps and to "external sounds", such as Robert Paul's footsteps. People also tend to subconsciously synchronize their steps, likely to improve detection of other sound sources.

So what happened as Lechmere approached the body. He moved from the pavement to the street, changing the sound pattern of his footsteps, making Robert Paul's footsteps more distinct. He probably slowed his pace, which would also make Paul's footsteps more distinct. Auditory mask would drop - the volume of Paul's footsteps would increase as he got closer while the volume of Lechmere's footsteps would decrease as he slowed and stopped. And as noted, by stopping walking, Lechmere auditory responsiveness would increase.

So the science backs Lechmere in multiple ways.

A lot here Geddy,
I'll just focus on some things -
If you want me to focus on others, just say so.

A. He can't here Cross's footsteps ahead of him over 70 yards, but he hears the sound of Cross's rag wiping against the knife from 70 - 80 yards away?

B. You mean Cross's (he didn't use Lechmere) testimony?
Paul didn't see Cross under the lights of the Albion Brewery, so we can infer the minimum distance Cross was ahead of Paul once Paul entered Bath Street. We can also infer the distance Paul was behind Cross, once Cross spotted him. Taking those two things into account, Paul was traveling clearly faster than Cross.

(C: Part I) No doubt, if you want to hear something at a very low threshold, its better to stop and close your eyes. Once again, and I can't stress this highly enough, auditory masking is not a topic that deals with self generated, repetitive sounds and the minds ability to ignore them .... they deal with external sounds, like a vacuum cleaner, that make it difficult to hear other things. Was there a drill hammer going off on Buck's row around 3:40 am, and then stopped to enable PC Neil to hear Thain from some 140 yards away? The answer of course was no .... it was a quiet street, and the sound intensity of footsteps easily carried for 140 yards down Buck's row;
so we can dispense with any discussion on hovering around the threshold of hearing at half that distance.

But all this is needlessly academic, since we do have a sample:

Did his walking negate his ability to hear the hovering around the threshold type sound of Paul's footsteps? Well, no .... Cross did hear them while he was walking towards the body. If you want to say that the subconscious recognition of Paul's footsteps suddenly got transferred to his consciousness, I can only just shrug my shoulders.

Please provide me a link to research dealing with how repetitive self generated sounds might 'mask' the sound of a predator stealthily seeking up behind prey and i'll be sold.


(C: Part II ) Its an interesting idea of people 'subconsciously' synchronizing footsteps, but unfortunately your link took me nowhere, and when I googled it, I couldn't find what I wanted: two strangers in contact by footsteps that invoke some sort of auditory response in each, but well separated and not walking together, in which the stimuli triggers a synchronicity between the foot steps - subconsciously. No luck at all ..... please look up some actual studies conducted that I can review
otherwise, what you offered is meaningless.

I did find group behavior, such as between friends, triggers synchronicitous responses, and I heard a study years ago in which the menstruation cycle between college roommates became synchronized - certainly that was not on a conscious level.

But, instead of going down that rabbit hole, just consider that for Lechmere testimony on this matter (& Paul's absence of mentioning anything),
Paul would have had to travel faster than Lechmere, by a good margin .... so, don't waste your time: although I would be interested in reading it.

[Geddy2112]

This is how a debate on Cross should go…


Person One - Is it remotely likely that Charles Cross was the ripper?

Person Two - No.

Person One - Ok, thanks for that. What shall we talk about next.

Yes absolutely, but here we are some 10 plus years later.

[Herlock Sholmes]

This is how a debate on Cross should go…


Person One - Is it remotely likely that Charles Cross was the ripper?

Person Two - No.

Person One - Ok, thanks for that. What shall we talk about next.

[Fiver]

This is inconsistency, was he not decided what to say?! but more importantly how would he be able to tell what she looked like if he

Didn't notice her wide open eyes
Didn't notice the cut through her throat
Didn't notice nor feel blood oozing from the wound in her throat
Didn't notice the pool of blood where her neck was lying

Robert Paul didn't notice any of those things, either. And Paul made the more through examination of the body.

"Witness [Paul] felt her hands and face, and they were cold. He knelt down to see if he could hear her breathe, but could not, and he thought she was dead. It was very dark, and he did not notice any blood."

"While he was pulling the clothes down he touched the breast, and then fancied he felt a slight movement."

Did he just base his opinion on the mere fact that she was lying on the ground?! Didn't he try to test the pulse in her neck?!

The opinion was based on his and Robert Paul's checking the body.

"We then both went over to the body. I bent over her head and touched her hand, which was cold. I said, "She is dead." The other man, after he had felt her heart, said, "Yes, she is."" - Charles Lechmere

[The Baron]

Your scenario requires that Lechmere, afraid of Mizen, goes in the worst possible direction

Nop, this is the most safe direction, to be seen going towards a murder spot is better than to be seen leaving it.


The Baron

[The Baron]

It's Schroedinger's Suspect again - he has to be calm and fearless while he is in a blind panic.

Nop, if he managed to escape the policeman unnoticed and got rid of the knife there is no more reason for him to be afraid..


The Baron

[Fiver]

Unless you are of the crowd that thinks Paul just flat out didn't notice Lechmere walking under the lights of the northern wall
of the Albion Brewery, some 40 yards ahead.


Of course, there is no proof that the lights were turned on at that particularly time, on that particular morning.

This has already been answered.
* There is no evidence that there were lights along the northern wall of Albion Brewery.
* At a distance of 40 yards, Lechmere would have already passed Foster Street before Paul was looking down Foster Street towards the Albion Brewery.

[Fiver]

My problem with Lech first hearing Paul's footsteps when he was in the middle of the street by the body is:

A. If he had moved away from the body and was standing near it in the middle of the road, facing Paul once spotted, then he would need to explain why he was situated there in a manner that would not prejudice him. Towards this end, there is only one story possible which happened to be the one he deposed at the inquest.

B. He would have had to ignore the footsteps marching behind him along Buck's row for up to a minute; according to Lechmere's own testimony, those footsteps would have to be moving faster than he .... not marching in unison.

C. At the point of discovery of the sound, he was focused on visually annalyzing the body. Neural scientists will tell you the brain does not multitask between aural and visual stimuli very well, and that it would be highly unlikely as to this being the point where he suddenly heard footsteps.

A. Requires that Robert Paul neither see nor hear Lechmere clean and put away a knife, move from facing west crouched over the body on the south pavement to standing in the middle of the road facing east. Some versions also throw in Lechmere lifting up the body to try to pull the skirts down. If Paul noticed any of this, then Lechmere's story would have been an obvious lie to Paul. By Paul's own testimony, he was initially afraid of Lechmere, which to any killer smarter than a paving stone, would have been interpreted as Paul knows he is the murderer and mustbe silenced.

B. Lechmere's testimony tells us nothing about whether Paul was walking slower, faster, or the same pace as Lechmere. Based on the distances to their work places, we would expect Lechmere to be walking faster.

C. Science tells us that is exactly the point that Lechmere would start noticing Paul's footsteps.

"On Friday morning he left home about half past three to go to work, and passing through Buck's row he saw on the opposite side something lying against a gateway. In the dark he could not tell at first what it was. It looked like a tarpaulin sheet, but walking to the middle of the road he saw it was the figure of a woman. At the same time he heard a man about forty yards away coming up Buck's row in the direction witness had himself come." - Daily News, 4 September 1888.

At the point that Lechmere identified that it was a woman, his visual perception load dropped significantly, which science tells us is exactly when Lechmere would be most likely to become much better at noticing auditory stimuli.

Then there is the well known phenomenon of auditory masking. where loader sounds mask softer ones. According to the Journal of Neuroscience, "neural responses to ... self-generated sounds are attenuated." That means that self-generated sounds receive less focus, making it easier to detect external sound sources, not that they are completely ignored. But "the responsiveness of auditory cortical neurons to external sounds is reduced not only during vocalizations but during a variety of behaviors, including locomotion". So Lechmere walking would reduce his perception of both his own footsteps and to "external sounds", such as Robert Paul's footsteps. People also tend to subconsciously synchronize their steps, likely to improve detection of other sound sources.

So what happened as Lechmere approached the body. He moved from the pavement to the street, changing the sound pattern of his footsteps, making Robert Paul's footsteps more distinct. He probably slowed his pace, which would also make Paul's footsteps more distinct. Auditory mask would drop - the volume of Paul's footsteps would increase as he got closer while the volume of Lechmere's footsteps would decrease as he slowed and stopped. And as noted, by stopping walking, Lechmere auditory responsiveness would increase.

So the science backs Lechmere in multiple ways.

[Fiver]

Second, if you read my posts here, I am drawing a new scenario in which a guilty Lechmere after killing Nichols and walked away he noticed Mizen or noises, panicked, and got back, so I am here talking about a second passing of Buck's Row not the first one.

Your scenario requires that Lechmere, afraid of Mizen, goes in the worst possible direction, back to the body, when heading any other direction would be better. If he is spotted at any point on his trip eastward, he has been spotted moving away from work, with no possible explanation for doing so. Doing this would be blind, unreasoning panic.

Now lets look at Lechmere's corroborated actions. He approaches Paul, stops him, and draws attention to the body. He accompanies Paul and goes directly to meet and talk to PC Mizen. If Lechmere is the killer, that makes him incredibly calm and collected and utterly unafraid of PC Mizen.

It's Schroedinger's Suspect again - he has to be calm and fearless while he is in a blind panic.

[rjpalmer]

Hi RJ,

I'm just seeking some clarification. My understanding is that when Cross and Paul were standing over the body, Neil would have been somewhere in Queen Ann St, or Thomas St, and would have been approaching from the western end of Buck's Row. I am I mistaken?

Cheers, George

No, as usual you're right, George. I should have said it was PC Thain who entered from the east. Neil would have been somewhere north of the western end of Buck's Row at the time under discussion.

I still have no idea of what constable an earlier Lechmere would have seen to force him back to the scene of the crime. It comes across as pointless and idle speculation that doesn't actually add anything to Ed or Christer's theory. The movements of the constables are accounted for, and no one entered the western end of Buck's Row between about 3:35 and 3:45 and the only reason Mizen strayed into J-Division was because he was alerted by Cross and Paul.

As for Lechmere allegedly tossing the knife...this was not the Epping Forrest where someone could easily stash a knife in the shrubbery. It's a bleak landscape of stone and brick. We know that the railway tracks were specifically walked by J-Division to look for evidence--they said as much. And we know from an account of the Tabram investigation that the Met had enough brains to check drains and drainpipes.

They would have found the knife had there been one.

In my humble opinion.

Cheers.

[Geddy2112]

So you would approve Geddy of us using the 3:30 am departure time as a jumping off point, no?

No, correct. His testimony states 'about 3:30am' there is no way we can be certain of the time he left home and Team Lechmere needs to be rather certain to prove the time gap which of course does not exist because we have no accurate timings, walking speeds, accurate routes. Too many unknowns and variables. About 3:30am could be anywhere from 3:25 to 3:35 realistically. We simply can't pinpoint times accurately so unfortunately all your fancy maths is kind of irrelevant. Sorry.

So, Geddy! If Lech left at/around 3:30 am, like you insist, we would expect him to want to make it to Pickford's on time and walk at the rate of 3.48 mph faster then normal .... approaching a brisk rate.

I don't insist, it's his testimony. However for the reasons above it's impossible to tell.

Now, as you can see Geddy, Paul would have been traveling about 0.25 mph slower than Lechmere on his way to work,
and yet, according to Lechmere's testimony, Paul was gaining on Lechmere up Buck's row.

Can you clarify this for me Geddy?

No of course not for the same reasons above. Once you take out accurate times the 'speed = distance ÷ time' things goes pear shaped. We also do not know the accurate distance here either so again I'm sorry but it's a pointless exercise to try and pinpoint times, distances and speeds.

Did Lech stop to take a leak on Buck's row, did he stop to do a butt scratch against some non functioning lantern, did he have cramps slowing him down ......?
Sock it to me!

Again, simply we do not know.