Every minute counts

[Fisherman]

Hi Fisherman,

No worries. I just don't see how an extra 60 seconds could possibly be differentiated one way or the other, particularly from the information we have to work with. Hence, in my opinion, the "bleeding evidence" taken in isolation leaves both the Cross/Lechmere hypothesis and the "JtR as other" hypothesis in equal standing. Particularly as everything that has to be assumed in the Cross/Lechmere hypothesis affords the same opportunities to "JtR as other" that enable his leaving the scene. Everyone is, of course, free to impart their own interpretations as to that and are under no obligation to agree with me. I'm just putting my 2 cents in to be considered for what it's worth (and I note, a lot of countries no longer have pennies ).

- Jeff

I am not saying that there may not have been 60 seconds for a killer to use, Jeff. Or 120. Or more. I am saying that we should not EXPECT there to have been and we should not put the tenth and eleventh and twelfth minute of bleeding on par with the first minutes. Any alternative killer would have to work in a window of time the pathologists would not have expected to be there - and that must be of interest to us.

[Fisherman]

Hi RJ,

"Bucks Row was one of many, many streets where prostitutes took their clients."

Really?

Evening News
London, U.K.
7 September 1888

FIFTH EDITION.
THE WHITECHAPEL MURDER.
WATCHING BUCK'S ROW.

"This morning, at one o'clock, two reporters commenced a watch in Buck's-row, which terminated at eleven o'clock, and from what they then observed, coupled with the evidence already given, they came to the conclusion that the police are altogether wrong in their assumption that the murder was committed on the spot where the body was found. This seems to be absolutely impossible, for the following reasons. In the first place, Buck's-row is a decently wide thoroughfare, running at right angles from Baker's-row to Brady-street. Buck's-row is in every sense thoroughly respectable, every tenant being an old inhabitant, and of good class. In addition to well-to-do artisans, the row contains a mission hall, the factory of Messrs. Schneider and Sons, and the factories and warehouses of Messrs. Torr, and Browne and Eagle, together with the private residence of the Rev. Henry North Hall, the curate of St. Mary, Whitechapel. There are watchmen at night at these factories, and many of the private residents were awake at the time the deceased was murdered, but none heard any cries for help on Friday morning.

"It has been stated that the street is a dark one, but this is altogether wrong, for it is well lighted at all hours of the night by the great lamps outside the [Albion] brewery of Messrs. Mann and Crossman, in addition to the ordinary street lamps, and it seems inconceivable that such a well-lighted street would be selected for the crime."

Hope you're keeping that Virus at bay.

Simon

"Well lighted at all hours of the night".

I think you may have been taken to the cleaners, Simon...

[Simon Wood]

Hi RJ,

Sorry, I should have made it clear that I understood you were quoting Christer.

As for Abberline, well he couldn't have said anything else without shooting himself in the foot.

And I'm with you on Mrs Colville.

Simon

[Abby Normal]

"Bucks Row was one of many, many streets where prostitutes took their clients. The[y] did not teleport themselves to and fro these streets, they actually visited them. If they, after having finished the business with a client, would turn away any other offers before they were back on Whitechapel Road, I would be very surprised. Saving time and making money is what prostitution is about, the tighter the schedule the better."

Dang, Fish, I didn't think you would want to go there, but you did!

So, in this scenario, Polly was in the dark and lonely Buck's Row at 3.40ish a.m., because she had taken another man there and the transaction was 'concluded' only moments before Lechmere came along on what was his normal path to work?

Well, I can't argue with that one.

I think most people have always believed that was the case; they just differed over what this 'transaction' entailed.

Good luck and carry on.

perhaps, or maybe she simply was drunk and tired and not finding any clients, got off the beaten track and was dozing in bucks row when the ripper encountered her.

[Abby Normal]

surely if the neck had stopped bleeding/oozing by the time the cops arrived on the scene it would point away from lech no?
so any neck bleeding would place time of the attack closer to when lech was there. the way i see it the neck still oozing has to point more to lech than away.

[Abby Normal]

Are the Lechmere theorists also followers of Hallie Rubenhold?

Here's why I ask.

If Polly Nichols was soliciting at the time of her murder, as most Ripperologists assume (and most likely this would have been somewhere along the Whitechapel Road, though I am open to other suggestions), wasn't it rather unfortunate for the Lechmere theorists that she would bring her punter, Charles the Ripper, back for an infamous 'knee trembler' in the very street that he would walk down if he was simply and innocently commuting from Doveton Street to Pickford & Co? Wouldn’t a murderer want to avoid his own route of egress?

I suppose the Lechmerians could argue that Charles, having picked her up in the Whitechapel Road, brought her to his own route by design, either to unconsciously incriminate himself by murdering a woman along his usual morning walk, or, conversely, having the startling foresight to realize that if he was nearly caught in the act, it would give him the ability to 'explain it all away.' But that would also mean that Charles timed the murder perfectly to coincide with his usual morning commute through Buck’s Row, and at very close to the time he would normally leave for work.

I confess that neither explanation appears to be the least bit palatable.

On the other hand, perhaps the Lechmerians might want to 'buck the Ripperological tide' (pun intended) and give a subtle wink in the direction of Ms. Rubenhold, theorizing that Polly was simply staggering down Buck's Row (or Heaven forbid, sleeping there!) when the Ripper/Crossmere came upon her.

If not, then why in the blazes is Lechmere's route to work, or his alleged time of leaving home, the least bit relevant?

Unless, of course, he was entirely innocent, and was just a bloke walking to work.

hi RJ
im in the weird position of disliking hr in general and because shes lying when trying to say the victims werent prostitutes and demonizing ripperologists and throwing accusations of misogyny etc., but then on the other hand i dont think its too crazy to suggest that some of the victims may have been dozing when the ripper came upon them and or not actively soliciting.

[rjpalmer]

Hi RJ,

"Bucks Row was one of many, many streets where prostitutes took their clients."

Really?

Hello Simon. All is well here, thanks.

I was quoting Christer, so I'll let him respond if he is so inclined.

Of course, in contrast to the article you post, Abberline claimed the street was sometimes used by 'unfortunates,' but, even if we accept his statement without question, I think most people would assume that he meant that they did so in order to conclude a transaction, rather than to initiate one...

I'm an oddball, however. I have never entirely discounted the story told by the children of Mrs. Colville/Caldwell/Coldwell, of someone rattling doorknobs and running and screaming for dear life.

But I stray off-topic...

Cheers.

[Simon Wood]

Hi RJ,

"Bucks Row was one of many, many streets where prostitutes took their clients."

Really?

Evening News
London, U.K.
7 September 1888

FIFTH EDITION.
THE WHITECHAPEL MURDER.
WATCHING BUCK'S ROW.

"This morning, at one o'clock, two reporters commenced a watch in Buck's-row, which terminated at eleven o'clock, and from what they then observed, coupled with the evidence already given, they came to the conclusion that the police are altogether wrong in their assumption that the murder was committed on the spot where the body was found. This seems to be absolutely impossible, for the following reasons. In the first place, Buck's-row is a decently wide thoroughfare, running at right angles from Baker's-row to Brady-street. Buck's-row is in every sense thoroughly respectable, every tenant being an old inhabitant, and of good class. In addition to well-to-do artisans, the row contains a mission hall, the factory of Messrs. Schneider and Sons, and the factories and warehouses of Messrs. Torr, and Browne and Eagle, together with the private residence of the Rev. Henry North Hall, the curate of St. Mary, Whitechapel. There are watchmen at night at these factories, and many of the private residents were awake at the time the deceased was murdered, but none heard any cries for help on Friday morning.

"It has been stated that the street is a dark one, but this is altogether wrong, for it is well lighted at all hours of the night by the great lamps outside the [Albion] brewery of Messrs. Mann and Crossman, in addition to the ordinary street lamps, and it seems inconceivable that such a well-lighted street would be selected for the crime."

Hope you're keeping that Virus at bay.

Simon

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff. If you don't mind me asking, where did you come up with 40-60 seconds?

I was thinking along similar lines, as I am sure many others already have, but I was bouncing around a number closer to 20 seconds, though a great deal of uncertainty exists. I think most people would agree (including Fish) that Lechmere could probably hear Paul, before Paul could see Lechmere. One frustration is that we don't have any conclusive answers about the street lighting.

In theory, Lechmere could have been lying, of course, but he estimated that Paul was 40 yards behind him. I think that would only mean about 25-30 seconds walking time.

Hi rjpalmer,

Well, having to suggest a time I erred on the side of caution and estimated a longer than perhaps necessary time as this moves the "bleed times" further apart than you suggest (and thinking about, you're estimate is probably a better one). But for the point I was making, the type of data just isn't precise enough to differentiate between two scenarios that differ by a minute. But yes, if we allow "JtR as other" to spot Cross/Lechmere at 40 yards, that would only be about 26 seconds away at an average walking speed. I extended beyond this because in the Cross/Lechmere version that's the distance between them at the point Cross/Lechmere is standing in the road, so if he moved to that position from the body, he must have spotted Paul earlier by some amount. I suppose if we gave him 10 seconds to "get up and move", that would still be more aligned with your 25-30 second estimate. From the crime scene to the entry into Buck's Row is about 395 feet, which would take just under 1.5 minutes to traverse at 3.1 mph, so 1 minute has Paul well into the road, but still about 273 feet away, rather than 120 feet (40 yards). So, yah, I have no problem with that being reduced but I didn't want err towards a value that might just look too convenient. Given I do not think even my more conservative lag could be differentiated, that becomes even more so with shorter times. And, to push it the other way, even if we allow the killer (either version) to spot the interruptor (Cross/Lechmere or Paul, pending on which hypothesis we're talking about) as soon as they entered Buck's Row, that would put a time difference of pretty much 1.5 minutes (less if they're walking faster than average), and even that would not be possible to differentiate with this type of data.

Short version, your 25-30 seconds is probably closer to an accurate estimation, but that would just make it less and less capable of differentiating between the two ideas.

- Jeff

[rjpalmer]

There would be only a matter of 40-60 seconds difference in the bleed times, which is not going to be noticeable by the time the police get there.

Hi Jeff. If you don't mind me asking, where did you come up with 40-60 seconds?

I was thinking along similar lines, as I am sure many others already have, but I was bouncing around a number closer to 20 seconds, though a great deal of uncertainty exists. I think most people would agree (including Fish) that Lechmere could probably hear Paul, before Paul could see Lechmere. One frustration is that we don't have any conclusive answers about the street lighting.

In theory, Lechmere could have been lying, of course, but he estimated that Paul was 40 yards behind him. I think that would only mean about 25-30 seconds walking time.

[rjpalmer]

"Bucks Row was one of many, many streets where prostitutes took their clients. The[y] did not teleport themselves to and fro these streets, they actually visited them. If they, after having finished the business with a client, would turn away any other offers before they were back on Whitechapel Road, I would be very surprised. Saving time and making money is what prostitution is about, the tighter the schedule the better."

Dang, Fish, I didn't think you would want to go there, but you did!

So, in this scenario, Polly was in the dark and lonely Buck's Row at 3.40ish a.m., because she had taken another man there and the transaction was 'concluded' only moments before Lechmere came along on what was his normal path to work?

Well, I can't argue with that one.

I think most people have always believed that was the case; they just differed over what this 'transaction' entailed.

Good luck and carry on.

[MrBarnett]

Is it the case that a line drawn from the Pinchin Street arch through St Phillip’s church goes directly through 22, Doveton Street as Christer says?

[JeffHamm]

It was never about the bleeding time being visible to the police, Jeff. We donīt know how long she bled, although we can conclude it was for a period of many minutes if Mizen saw the blood running as he arrived to Browns.

And what must be considered is that if we add a minute to the already lengthy bleeding time, we are suggesting something that is in conflict with what should be expected as per Payne-James and Thiblin. If I am right, then we are adding a tenth minute of bleeding to the nine we already have. Maybe we are instead adding a ninth minute to the eight we have, or an eleventh to the ten we have - but regardless of which scenario is the correct one, we will be adding a minute that is less expected to be a bleeding minute than the minutes before! And so every suggestion of an added minute is a suggestion of an unlikely event, whereas the first five minutes were all likely bleeding minutes as per the pathologists - and those five minutes and some minute beyond them are ALL occupied by Charles Lechmere.

That is why I say that he is by far the likeliest killer, but we cannot rule out that an unlikely killer did it, and that Nichols bled for a longer time than we should expect as per the pathologists.

I can see how this worries a lot of people (and so we get a lot of accusations flung about), but it is a very simple fact we are dealing with: no minute of bleeding is as likely to be a bleeding minute as the minute/s before it are. Surely, I am not the only person to understand this law of nature?

Hi Fisherman,

No worries. I just don't see how an extra 60 seconds could possibly be differentiated one way or the other, particularly from the information we have to work with. Hence, in my opinion, the "bleeding evidence" taken in isolation leaves both the Cross/Lechmere hypothesis and the "JtR as other" hypothesis in equal standing. Particularly as everything that has to be assumed in the Cross/Lechmere hypothesis affords the same opportunities to "JtR as other" that enable his leaving the scene. Everyone is, of course, free to impart their own interpretations as to that and are under no obligation to agree with me. I'm just putting my 2 cents in to be considered for what it's worth (and I note, a lot of countries no longer have pennies ).

- Jeff

[Fisherman]

Right, done for today. Hoping to see less Ley lines and comparisons to Pierre as well as less accusations of manipulation out here tomorrow.

[Fisherman]

Hi Fisherman,

I can see why that could be consistent with Cross/Lechmere as being her killer, but it's also consistent with Cross/Lechmere coming down the road and JtR leaving due to his approach.

Absolutely! I may be the last person on earth to deny such a thing.

Even without debating the variation in bleed times, etc, if we just consider the idea of Cross/Lechmere being her killer, and therefore she was cut some amount of time before Paul sees Cross/Lechmere standing in the street, then in this scenerio Cross/Lechmere has time to have killed her, was able to notice Paul coming down the street (and Paul does not notice him), Cross/Lechmere then had enough time to move away from the body to be spotted standing there when Paul gets closer. Given something like that has to have happened for Cross/Lechmere to be her killer then there's nothing to exclude the possibility that Cross/Lechmere scared off JtR (since the idea is, after all, that Paul interrupted Cross/Lechmere, only Cross/Lehmere remained there rather than leave). There would be only a matter of 40-60 seconds difference in the bleed times, which is not going to be noticeable by the time the police get there. Therefore, the we cannot conclude the bleeding evidence is only consistent wtih Cross/Lechmere being her killer. It can be argued it is consistent with that idea, but that is not the same as it making him the most likely explanation. The "JtR fled when Cross/Lechmere comes down the road would get equal weight for consideration. I know the JtR fled may seem more complex, but we know JtR similarly leaves when PC Harvey patrols Church Passage in the Eddowes case, there's the interruption theory around Stride (though that is far less agreed upon, that's not an issue for here) so it's not like this sort of thing doesn't appear to happen with JtR, rather, it seems almost common.

- Jeff

It was never about the bleeding time being visible to the police, Jeff. We donīt know how long she bled, although we can conclude it was for a period of many minutes if Mizen saw the blood running as he arrived to Browns.

And what must be considered is that if we add a minute to the already lengthy bleeding time, we are suggesting something that is in conflict with what should be expected as per Payne-James and Thiblin. If I am right, then we are adding a tenth minute of bleeding to the nine we already have. Maybe we are instead adding a ninth minute to the eight we have, or an eleventh to the ten we have - but regardless of which scenario is the correct one, we will be adding a minute that is less expected to be a bleeding minute than the minutes before! And so every suggestion of an added minute is a suggestion of an unlikely event, whereas the first five minutes were all likely bleeding minutes as per the pathologists - and those five minutes and some minute beyond them are ALL occupied by Charles Lechmere.

That is why I say that he is by far the likeliest killer, but we cannot rule out that an unlikely killer did it, and that Nichols bled for a longer time than we should expect as per the pathologists.

I can see how this worries a lot of people (and so we get a lot of accusations flung about), but it is a very simple fact we are dealing with: no minute of bleeding is as likely to be a bleeding minute as the minute/s before it are. Surely, I am not the only person to understand this law of nature?