So if you live in Bethnal Green, you won´t kill in Whitechapel?

[Harry D]

What are chances that an innocent witness is seen near the body before they try to raise any alarm?or What are the chances that paul comes upon lech at that very moment? Ive never heard of such a thing before..

Pretty high, seeing as another carman on his way to work was minutes behind him.

[harry]

The starting point in the Nichols murder,is just that,her murder.The one undeniable fact of that murder is that the killer had to be in physical contact with the victim when the injuries were sustained.
In the area is not good enough,as several persons can be said to have been in the area at the time.The only evidence concerning Cross,places him at the body of Nichols after the injuries had been committed.

Of course he could have lied,but could have in a case of murder,where a person's life is at stake,means nothing.Evidence of lying has to be proven,and the evidence of Cross has never been proven to have been false.

[John G]

Attempting to connect a suspect such as Lechmere to the murder sites via geographical connections, such as work locations or relatives addresses, is a useful exercise. However, consider an unamed suspect living at Flower and Dean Street, the epicentre of the murders.

Although Flower and Dean Street doesn't exist, Flower and Dean Walk is just accross the road from this location. And Flower and Dean Walk is a mere 0.6 miles walking distance, via Wentworth Street, from Mitre Street; 0.6 miles walk from Durward Sreet; 0.2 miles walk from Whites Row; 0.4 miles walk from Hanbury Street; and 0.5 miles from Henrique Street.

In other words, someone from this location doesn't need to be placed closer to the murder scenes by looking at work and relatives addresses, as his residence is already in the heart of the action.

[Sam Flynn]

...Flower and Dean Walk is just accross the road from this location. And Flower and Dean Walk is a mere 0.6 miles walking distance, via Wentworth Street, from Mitre Street; 0.6 miles walk from Durward Sreet; 0.2 miles walk from Whites Row; 0.4 miles walk from Hanbury Street; and 0.5 miles from Henrique Street.

In other words, someone from this location doesn't need to be placed closer to the murder scenes by looking at work and relatives addresses, as his residence is already in the heart of the action.

Quite, and the same holds true for anyone living within a stone's throw of Commercial Street and its tributaries.

[Fisherman]

Pretty high, seeing as another carman on his way to work was minutes behind him.

He was not minutes behind him, he was a mere thirty or forty yards behind. If he had been minutes behind, we would have another scene altogether.

What has me thinking is how Lechmere not only came across the body at a stage when it was very freshly killed and still bleeding, it also just so happens that Paul is at the exact distance required to provide him with an alibi - not so far off so as to give him time enough to be the killer, and not close enough to be able to confirm Lechmere´s claim to have only just stepped out into the street.

One must say that it was a very timely entrance on the scene. Not impossible at all, but too convenient for my taste.

[Fisherman]

Attempting to connect a suspect such as Lechmere to the murder sites via geographical connections, such as work locations or relatives addresses, is a useful exercise. However, consider an unamed suspect living at Flower and Dean Street, the epicentre of the murders.

Although Flower and Dean Street doesn't exist, Flower and Dean Walk is just accross the road from this location. And Flower and Dean Walk is a mere 0.6 miles walking distance, via Wentworth Street, from Mitre Street; 0.6 miles walk from Durward Sreet; 0.2 miles walk from Whites Row; 0.4 miles walk from Hanbury Street; and 0.5 miles from Henrique Street.

In other words, someone from this location doesn't need to be placed closer to the murder scenes by looking at work and relatives addresses, as his residence is already in the heart of the action.

P Hantom, killer?

[Fisherman]

John G: Although Flower and Dean Street doesn't exist, Flower and Dean Walk is just accross the road from this location. And Flower and Dean Walk is a mere 0.6 miles walking distance, via Wentworth Street, from Mitre Street; 0.6 miles walk from Durward Sreet; 0.2 miles walk from Whites Row; 0.4 miles walk from Hanbury Street; and 0.5 miles from Henrique Street.

To me, this is taking a step back. It is only when we have no suspect that this model may be of use. And it´s only "may".
Once we have a suspect, we can check the geography.

As for Lechmere, he was 0 miles away from Bucks Row, he was quite possibly 0 miles from 29 Hanbury Street, his old working trek would have passed around 0,1 mile from Mitre Square, if he used Hanbury Street he would have passed around 0,1 mile from Dorset Street and Millers Court (but he may well have walked right through that street, since it was a short-cut from Hanbury), his mother and daughter lived 0,1 miles from Dutfields Yard and if he used the Hanbury Street route, Lechmere would have passed 0,2 miles from George Yard - but could have passed right through there without loosing time.

I should add that the distances are crude estimations before somebody comes up with the idea of pointing out how I may be half a mile off somewhere. The gist of the matter is that we know that Lechmere was a hell of a lot closer than Mr Hantom of Flower & Dean Street would have been.

[Harry D]

He was not minutes behind him, he was a mere thirty or forty yards behind. If he had been minutes behind, we would have another scene altogether.

Even better then. We have two carmen encountering the body of a freshly killed murder victim in quick succession. Two men who were on their way to work and had perfectly innocent reasons for being in Buck's Row at that hour.

Abby thinks it's strange that Lechmere had not raised the alarm before he met Paul. Hardly strange at all when we consider the evidence. Lechmere didn't know the woman was dead. It wasn't until Paul joined them that they inspected the body. Lechmere wouldn't have run down Buck's Row crying bloody murder if his first thoughts had been that Nichols was just another drunk in the gutter.

[Batman]

Rossmo's assumptions include that the offender moves as far away from the anchor point as little as possible, meaning the hot zone will always provide the least amount of travel needed by the offender who radiates outwards from there.

No other model will produce a shorter total amount of distance needed to travel, as Rossmo's model is the one that does this.

If that is not understood by now, then someone doesn't understand geographic profiling or Rossmo's model. Which in itself is nothing to be ashamed of, but claiming one understands it, when one doesn't, is another matter.

[Fisherman]

Harry D: Even better then. We have two carmen encountering the body of a freshly killed murder victim in quick succession. Two men who were on their way to work and had perfectly innocent reasons for being in Buck's Row at that hour.

Yes, it becomes better from Lechmere´s point of view if Paul is so close that it rules out any foul play on his own behalf. Sadly, though, Paul does not confirm that Lechmere was walking right in front of himself down Bucks Row and he does not mention seeing him in the floodlight outside the Bath Street brewery. It´s another one of those matters where there COULD have been exonerating evidence for Lechmere, but where it fails to turn up.
Just as you say, the scenario can be interpreted as an innocent one - but there is also the possibility that it was an INVENTED scenario, and that the carmen were not close at all. Paul may have arrived many minutes behind Lechmere in Buck´s Row, and if Lechmere was the killer, he may have fabricated sort of an alibi, using Paul.

Abby thinks it's strange that Lechmere had not raised the alarm before he met Paul. Hardly strange at all when we consider the evidence. Lechmere didn't know the woman was dead. It wasn't until Paul joined them that they inspected the body. Lechmere wouldn't have run down Buck's Row crying bloody murder if his first thoughts had been that Nichols was just another drunk in the gutter.

We spoke to Andy Griffiths about the meeting of Lechmere and Paul, since we thought there were a number of red flags involved in it. But Griffiths did not agree, he did not see anything particularly worrying in it.
So there can be different interpretations, of course.
What can be said is that regardless of the reason for it, it remains that Lechmere did not raise any alarm. Accordingly, we cannot know whether he would have, had not Paul arrived. My own suggestion is that he was the killer, of course, and so there would have been no alarm raised!

PS. Nota bene how everything would change if Paul arrived twenty seconds earlier, in which case Lechmere could not have been the killer, or twenty seconds later, in which case Lechmere wouldn´t have been provided with that alibi. Don´t you think it is all extremely convenient for Lechmere?

[Fisherman]

No other model will produce a shorter total amount of distance needed to travel, as Rossmo's model is the one that does this.

Then how do you explain how my model produced a very much shorter total distance than that of P Hantom, Killer of Flower & Dean Street?

I will explain why to you:

Because my model does not start from the residence of the killer, but instead from his working trek.

Rossmos model starts from a place of residence or some sort of bolthole, from where the deeds fan out. And that means that the distances needed will always be longer than those relating to a trek through the murder sites.

If we were to produce a Rossmonian model for Lechmere, we would need to work from his Doveton Street residence and rule that he MUST have used it as an anchor point to be allowed to compete for the Ripper title. And frankly, just how stupid would that be?

[Batman]

If you invoke arbitrarily to remove distances from his home to some road and pretend it wasn't part of his work trek, then Rossmo can do the same and cut the distances arbitrarily like you did.

Crow was a cab driver. I could claim work didn't start until he picked up his first fare.

[Fisherman]

If you invoke arbitrarily to remove distances from his home to some road and pretend it wasn't part of his work trek, then Rossmo can do the same and cut the distances arbitrarily like you did.

Crow was a cab driver. I could claim work didn't start until he picked up his first fare.

You could claim a lot of things, you have proven that many a time.

Rossmo cannot produce any knowledge at all about Mr Hantom of Flower & Dean Street, for the simple reason that he is a figment of imagination only. There is no such person existing, and accordingly, we have no place of work for him either. Therefore, no trek can be shown to have been his, and no distances can be suggested or measured.

In Lechmere´s case, it is established that he passed through Bucks Row and worked in Broad Street, and his trek will therefore have passed through Spitalfields, unless he favoured taking a much longer road than necessary. Plus we know that he didn´t do that on the 31:st, when he walked down Hanbury Street. It is therefore established that the likely thing is that he walked through the killing fields on a more or less daily basis. There is no denying that this is the most likely thing and that there are no fully realistic alternatives.

About Crow you are welcome to claim that his work did not begin until he picked up his first fare. Be my guest!

And then you prove to us WHERE that happened, please.

Once you have done that - but not before - you can start measuring his likely distances from the murder sites.

[Fisherman]

As for Crow, surely the inquest records place him as living in George Yard buildings in 1888:

"Alfred George Crow, cabdriver, 35, George-yard-buildings, deposed that he got home at half-past 3 on Tuesday morning. As he was passing the first-floor landing he saw a body lying on the ground. He took no notice, as he was accustomed to seeing people lying about there. He did not then know whether the person was alive or dead. He got up at half-past 9, and when he went down the staircase the body was not there. Witness heard no noise while he was in bed." (my highlighting)

So if he was the killer, then he started his killing career, it would seem, in his own stairwell. And it is easy to geographically profile him, should anyone want to do so.

[Batman]

You could claim a lot of things, you have proven that many a time.

I am going to demonstrate here that all you have done is special plead that you are allowed to make up when you want to start counting meters on Lechmere's journey from his home, and ... no one else is allowed to do that with their model, i.e, Rossmo.

Rossmo cannot produce any knowledge at all about Mr Hantom of Flower & Dean Street, for the simple reason that he is a figment of imagination only.

That positive claim that JtR is not from F&D street can only be made if you had evidence for who JtR is. Since you don't have that, this claim can be dismissed as nothing but conjecture. Instead of saying the burden of proof is on us to provide JtR living on F&D, you erred here.

There is no such person existing, and accordingly, we have no place of work for him either. Therefore, no trek can be shown to have been his, and no distances can be suggested or measured.

We can still arbitrarily conjecture exactly what you did omitting distances by subjectively claiming the exact same thing. We don't need a suspect to do what you did.

Being Lechmere is not a licence to make up when we want to start measuring his journey to work from his home.

About Crow you are welcome to claim that his work did not begin until he picked up his first fare. Be my guest!

And then you prove to us WHERE that happened, please.

Cab drivers in Whitechapel traversed all of Whitechapel.

Once you have done that - but not before - you can start measuring his likely distances from the murder sites.

Since you have arbitrarily decided to omit any trek from Lechmere's home to a murder site, we can do the same, for any UNSUB.