Kosminski and Victim DNA Match on Shawl

[RockySullivan]

Ok so 1 in 300k would be what in 1,500 Million?

[RockySullivan]

1500 mill divided by 290 K is 5,172.

Like i said I dont know what I'm doing as a failed algebra plenty of times. Since all the possible matches to Eddowes would likely be in England, does this mean that 5,000 other people in Europe at the time would match the DNA?

[Theagenes]

Ok so 1 in 300k would be what in 1,500 Million?

About 5200 people or so. But that's worldwide. Earlier we calaculated it for England and Wales -- around a 100 people and for London about 20 people. In other words, for our purposes Catherine Eddowes and some of her family would have this rare DNA.

So if this number is accurate, that's pretty solid.

[RockySullivan]

Yes but the only people who could match Eddowes would be European, so the 5,000 would likely be in only Europe or America

[robhouse]

And as for me personally, like many of you I never really considered Kosminski a serious suspect. The picture that has been painted of him as a drooling, gutter-dining masturbater is a hard one to shake. Honestly that's why I had never read Rob's book until this week.

I think most people dismiss Kozminski as a suspect because they don't know much about him, and what little they think they know is either wrong, or gives what is possibly a very inaccurate mental image of what he was actually like. "Drooling imbecile" is the term most often tossed about, but it is almost certainly quite inaccurate. There is certainly no indication he was an imbecile, as I make clear in my book. The fact is, that the more we have learned about Kozminski, the more he fits with the person I would expect the Ripper to be. Moreover, the more I researched about schizophrenic serial killers, the more is seemed likely to me that Jack the Ripper was schizophrenic... as Kozminski was.

RH

[Theagenes]

Yes but the only people who could match Eddowes would be European, so the 5,000 would likely be in only Europe or America

Yes, but even more likely is that that are all in England so those are the numbers that I would look at.

[mickreed]

Just a curious thought .. a rhetorical thought no doubt ..

How many on these boards would honestly still be on the fence regarding the scientific conclusions , if Edwards had claimed the DNA on the shawl was a 100% match for Vincent or Gull or Eddy for that matter ?

An honest answer would be zero me thinks ..
so its not so much the provenance of the shawl that has us all hooked and lined , its more to do with the provenance of the suspect ..

moonbegger .

Well Moonbeggar,

You're building a straw man. I suspect that many of us would still be arguing the same way. I'm sure I would. This simply because all we have is a lay person (Edwards) telling us about the science in a particularly unscientific way, and a scientist (Jari) who seems, in his public pronouncements, to be considerably more cautious, and who hasn't yet put his detailed findings under the scrutiny of peer review. When he does, I'm sure it will be a highly competent piece that will be much less definitive than Edwards's bombast. It may be highly suggestive but until we know - we don't know.

[robhouse]

I don't see it as even a remote possibility.

With the diary--TLC was used (as a chemist I have run a lot of TLCs). It is a great technique for some things--but it isn't very sensitive. I wondered at the time why a more sensitive assay wasn't used-and then it became obvious.

In this case, we have multiple scientists using the most advanced techniques. The author of the book (who does have a dog in the fight) has had no control over the samples and testing).

It would be impossible to come up with a forgery that would pass intensive assays like this. It is also extremely unlikely that a sampling of internationally famous scientists would collude in a conspiracy to fake results--torpedoing everyone's reputation.

I believe these results will stand.

I agree with your post entirely. I too am starting to think the findings will stand.

RH

[RockySullivan]

Yes, but even more likely is that that are all in England so those are the numbers that I would look at.

So wouldn't it be 5,000 in England if the shawl scenario is using a world wide percentage?

[Chris]

1500 mill divided by 290 K is 5,172.

Like i said I dont know what I'm doing as a failed algebra plenty of times. Since all the possible matches to Eddowes would likely be in England, does this mean that 5,000 other people in Europe at the time would match the DNA?

They wouldn't all be in England, would they? But even going to the extreme of supposing they were, that 5,000 would still translate to a tiny probability of a chance match. A fraction of one tenth of one percent.

The people who are suggesting this requires no explanation are obviously wrong. Of course it needs to be explained.

[Theagenes]

I think most people dismiss Kozminski as a suspect because they don't know much about him, and what little they think they know is either wrong, or gives what is possibly a very inaccurate mental image of what he was actually like. "Drooling imbecile" is the term most often tossed about, but it is almost certainly quite inaccurate. There is certainly no indication he was an imbecile, as I make clear in my book. The fact is, that the more we have learned about Kozminski, the more he fits with the person I would expect the Ripper to be. Moreover, the more I researched about schizophrenic serial killers, the more is seemed likely to me that Jack the Ripper was schizophrenic... as Kozminski was.

RH

You made it very clear that that picture of him was greatly exaggerated and overstated -- something I really should have realized before, but I always overlooked Kosminski. I certainly came away from your book viewing him in a different light and see him as a much more plausible candidate than I did previously.

[GUT]

You can't get the Kindle version in Australia until 30 September

G'day Mick

Typical!

[lynn cates]

Fenians

Hello Mick.

"there was an upsurge in the earlier-1880s."

Actually, that was Clan-na-Gael and the Invincibles--a breakaway group from the IRB.

Cheers.
LC

[mickreed]

I agree with your post entirely. I too am starting to think the findings will stand.

RH

But stand for what? Surely, at best, only that Kosminski (or a rellie) and Eddowes (or a rellie) had come into contact with the shawl.

Now that would be hugely interesting and significant but not proof of guilt, just the basis for a line of enquiry.

I haven't yet got the book. It's not available in any form here until 30 September. It'd take that long for it to come by post, so I'll wait. My issues with it, apart from the complete lack of citations mentioned by Adam (which suggests lax work or a lousy choice of publisher) are only to do with the hyperventilated claims by the author of definitive proof of K's guilt.

[GUT]

It sounds as though enough sample has been recovered that given the money, time and effort--it may be possible to give a very precise match on the seminal fluid.

Most mportant word in this post "may".